.
I told you this would happen...it's going to come right down now and screw everyone that went long on the broken triangle...clear as day
To be one with the market, you must first be one with yourself.
- #6,625
- Sep 28, 2007 9:35am Sep 28, 2007 9:35am
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
Sorry, SL... I don't share your view on cable....
hint: check.... never mind
That DJI future feed is one of a kind ;p
Makes me wonder whether I should have shorted that EJ 4h PB into 163.95
But then....if the EURUSD is rising madly...and EJ to drop.....best to short the living hell out of USDJPY directly, no?
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #6,626
- Sep 28, 2007 10:00am Sep 28, 2007 10:00am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2007 | 1,442 Posts
Except us with tight trailing stops
Listen to me - I must be bitter.
- #6,628
- Sep 28, 2007 10:17am Sep 28, 2007 10:17am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2005 | 2,899 Posts
But then....if the EURUSD is rising madly...and EJ to drop.....best to short the living hell out of USDJPY directly, no?
- #6,631
- Sep 28, 2007 10:41am Sep 28, 2007 10:41am
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #6,632
- Sep 28, 2007 10:53am Sep 28, 2007 10:53am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2005 | 2,899 Posts
I've managed to escape a large loss in this twice so far today. Wondering if I am starting to push it.
Went long at 23420 yesterday on a break of the triangle. Woke up this morning to see price had taken a sharp 200 point fall and come within 2 pips of taking me out before forming a pin bar. 2 pips. I mean - seriously. 2 actual pips. That's the power of where I choose to place my PPZ lines. haha!
Then, price takes off and I go from a 200 point loss into a 55 point gain. I start to think this is going to really take off and then price takes another nosedive - falls a 150 points and actually goes 7 pips below my stop - my broker once again doesn't stop me out and I am now back in profit.
What does this mean?
a) I had a lucky escape twice. Price has given me two opportunities to get out. There may not be a third. Take the money.
b) Price is resilient. It wants to go higher and dips below the triangle breakout are met with buying. Hold my position.
c) Who cares? I've been hit my lightning.
until price leaves purple zone, you can make a killing scalping it.
if it breaks to the upside, it should slow down around red dwarf...
Unless you really see dj shooting through 14k, I would not bet on red dwarf too much....
enjoy the weekend
R
- #6,633
- Sep 28, 2007 10:58am Sep 28, 2007 10:58am
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
I vote for C.
if it breaks to the upside, it should slow down around red dwarf...
Unless you really see dj shooting through 14k, I would not bet on red dwarf too much....
enjoy the weekend
R
As for GBPxxx........am I ever glad to be riding the unencumbered major, the "real" horse
USDCHF for GBPCHF? Smashable due to USD selling.
USDJPY for GBPJPY? Smashable due to USD selling AND potential for another panic on the markets.
GBPUSD? Has a few hundred pips delay in this USD selling frenzy if you ask me
But might just end up being in a different type of thing altogether...but I will remain dreaming until proven wrong / awoken.
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #6,634
- Sep 28, 2007 12:12pm Sep 28, 2007 12:12pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2007 | 1,486 Posts
Then we use Jacko's Anti-Hedging
Ay first I thought Unforseen has it sussed - having a plan and also a another plan should the first plan fail.
(I wish that I would always do that before entering a trade, but mostly all I do is plan where to put the SL).
But then I thought, hang on a moment, the here is no trend on GJ on the 4hr using Jacko's method (show a 300 bar chart to a 5 year old) - it is sideways.
Ah only works for a long term (say 300 bar) strongly trending market. GJ is not such a market - even on the daily chart, since the low in August was lower than the low in March.
Then to cap it all we have the problem of defining the size of the AH trail (Jacko uses 50pips for the EU and people have suggested 60 to 75 pips for GU). Generally one would use a percentage of the ATR for this, but the ATR of GJ has varied considerably over the last year - so extensive backtesting would have to be done on it.
Perhaps I am going overboard with this, sine it was probably just a glib remark in response to the Wizard's equally glib comment.
However the concept of having a plan as to what to do when your initial plan fails is a very important one. It is not something that I have seen much about anywhere in FF or other forums - except today in the 1KT thread from
Soultrader where in his blog on his now defunct Grail system he talks about the importance of defining criteria to determine failure (of a system) and having detected it, having a plan as to what to do next.
Sorry to blather on for so long,
Ian
- #6,635
- Sep 28, 2007 3:17pm Sep 28, 2007 3:17pm
- | Joined May 2006 | Status: Trade Towards the 5 ema | 2,881 Posts
- #6,636
- Sep 28, 2007 3:30pm Sep 28, 2007 3:30pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
I vote for C.
until price leaves purple zone, you can make a killing scalping it.
if it breaks to the upside, it should slow down around red dwarf...
Unless you really see dj shooting through 14k, I would not bet on red dwarf too much....
enjoy the weekend
R
- #6,637
- Sep 28, 2007 4:58pm Sep 28, 2007 4:58pm
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
OK, I am open to explanations as to today's market action... I am clueless as usual..
This must be all seekings fault... not that I have any trades going...
Chronology of events according to El Seeko:
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=6519
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=6598
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=6599
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=6607
Not that I didn't try to wish it so ahead of time enough times
Trust price. Know yourself.
Hi Unforseen,
Ay first I thought Unforseen has it sussed - having a plan and also a another plan should the first plan fail.
(I wish that I would always do that before entering a trade, but mostly all I do is plan where to put the SL).
But then I thought, hang on a moment, the here is no trend on GJ on the 4hr using Jacko's method (show a 300 bar chart to a 5 year old) - it is sideways.
Ah only works for a long term (say 300 bar) strongly trending market. GJ is not such a market - even on the daily chart, since the low in August was lower than the low in March.
Then to cap it all we have the problem of defining the size of the AH trail (Jacko uses 50pips for the EU and people have suggested 60 to 75 pips for GU). Generally one would use a percentage of the ATR for this, but the ATR of GJ has varied considerably over the last year - so extensive backtesting would have to be done on it.
Several good and valid points
My response was partially in jest, but mostly not. The reason being most can identify with Jacko's rule.. I take the underlying concept or idea, and turn it into something that works for me. While for Jacko, he has his specific rules about AH, I take it as the concept of getting back in after being stopped, when price and conditions tell me to.Since exactly that scenario played out for me (stops were hit), I employed my own AH, which isn't based on set rules of trend, but on pure price action. The resistance was already set above that triangle, and when I seen price violently shoot back up after touching near the top of the triangle again, I jumped back in after my stop, recouping around 75 pips on the way back up - most of my loss.
AH like most tactics, is a concept identified with a label. Make it your own
To be one with the market, you must first be one with yourself.
- #6,639
- Sep 28, 2007 8:54pm Sep 28, 2007 8:54pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
- #6,640
- Sep 28, 2007 10:32pm Sep 28, 2007 10:32pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
Seems that lightning thing really is gonna be a running gag for a looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong time wiz.
As for GBPxxx........am I ever glad to be riding the unencumbered major, the "real" horse
USDCHF for GBPCHF? Smashable due to USD selling.
USDJPY for GBPJPY? Smashable due to USD selling AND potential for another panic on the markets.
GBPUSD? Has a few hundred pips delay in this USD selling frenzy if you ask me
But might just end up being in a different type of thing altogether...but I will remain dreaming until proven wrong / awoken.