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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #7,121
  • Sep 27, 2007 11:07am Sep 27, 2007 11:07am
Quoting BIL2205
Ok i closed my euro by mistake, was going to bring my stop loss to break even however by mistake the price was still a the current level on order form at 1.4182 and i click ok.( My little one distracted me in ways only kids can ) this happen like 10 min before the news when price was spiking up. so second lot closed at +34 pips. So no complains. I am out for now. no more lots or positions. If something develops in the next 4 hours. then i will plan accordingly. Will watch the market though to learn and maybe do some back testing. Good luck to who still have open positions. May you make plenty of pips.
Nadia.
My deals are closed too, +36 on one lot and +10 on another by SL. I want to emphasize - what a beautiful trading today, absolutely stress free. That's because the setup was 100% with the rules, and it gives you confidence, you don't rush, don't panic, you are not emotionally involved, you just automatically execute your plan and feel very satisfied. That's why Phillip is constantly saying look only for high probability trades, it's very important, if your deals are like that you don't feel frustration and emotional pain. We have a wonderful working system the rest is psychology.
Ira.
  • #7,122
  • Sep 27, 2007 1:14pm Sep 27, 2007 1:14pm
Quoting jren07
Thanks for everydoby contributed to this thread, I'm newbie to Forex and this good thread. It took long time, about 4 months to go through all the posts. Now I made my first post, just want to keep my learning journey in progress. I learned PHillip Nel's 5 min and 4 hr at same time, and tried to applied them to the demo trades. The problem I meet is that I like use 4 hr to analyze the trade for long or short, but when I tried to open position, I always change chart to 5 min, and to see if there is retracement for better price, and set in front of computer and let price movement to drive my emotion, because I just think that the target I analyzed can't not be reach in one day and no confidence about next day. Could anyone give me some advice? as I believe that 4 hr system should give at least 4 hr freedom. Sorry to ask for more help, anyone from Canada? I use interbank MT 4 for chart analyse which allow the tight stopless like 10 pips, but my broker required the stoploss at least 25 pip for most cross and GBPJYP need 50 pips. Which broker can provide tight stopless in Canada? If no, what should I do during the trade if need 10 pip stoploss for 5 min system.
happy trade to all
jren07, -- Congratulations on reading through the whole thread! I think you are asking a lot of legitimate questions, but I am going to answer only the one that I think is most important to your continued growth in the 4Hr method, and that is that the 4Hr and the 5Min are two separate methods with two different goals as regards both the amount of profit you are expecting, the amount of loss risk you are willing to take, and the amount of time you are expecting to wait for your trade to mature. If you are looking at the 4Hr only for direction but at the 5Min for entry, then you need to look at the 5 minute charts for an exit strategy as well. If you use the 4Hr, use it for your entry as well. Look for what Phillip calls the "high probability trades," the ones that have found support or resistance and confirmation by the MACD signal. Good luck on your continued study!
  • #7,123
  • Sep 28, 2007 12:55am Sep 28, 2007 12:55am
Quoting jren07
Thanks for everydoby contributed to this thread, I'm newbie to Forex and this good thread. It took long time, about 4 months to go through all the posts. Now I made my first post, just want to keep my learning journey in progress. I learned PHillip Nel's 5 min and 4 hr at same time, and tried to applied them to the demo trades. The problem I meet is that I like use 4 hr to analyze the trade for long or short, but when I tried to open position, I always change chart to 5 min, and to see if there is retracement for better price, and set in front of computer and let price movement to drive my emotion, because I just think that the target I analyzed can't not be reach in one day and no confidence about next day. Could anyone give me some advice? as I believe that 4 hr system should give at least 4 hr freedom. Sorry to ask for more help, anyone from Canada? I use interbank MT 4 for chart analyse which allow the tight stopless like 10 pips, but my broker required the stoploss at least 25 pip for most cross and GBPJYP need 50 pips. Which broker can provide tight stopless in Canada? If no, what should I do during the trade if need 10 pip stoploss for 5 min system.

happy trade to all

Hi, welcome to the FF. I'm kinda new too here, and still learning. It'd be fun if we learn together.

Yes, I'm from Canada, and I'm using InterbankFX. What broker are you using in Canada? Well, so far that I know, you can open a broker anywhere in the world, don't have to be Canada, just kinda hassle with the process...
  • #7,124
  • Sep 28, 2007 7:04am Sep 28, 2007 7:04am
Hey everyone. There was a rift in the space-time continuum yesterday and I was pretty much out of touch. Looks like there was a nice bounce off of the 21EMA on the $yen that the 1hr would have let you in on, another text-book set up. Missed that one but I did take the bounce off of the 89 a little later. It wasn't as large of a move but it gave up some. Lot's of news out this morning so keep an eye on things and hello to the new FX traders! This thread is approaching 1 million views! I wonder if it's because this method actually works....I guess so.

Still tweaking the scripts, they should be posted to the site next week....
Attached Images
  • #7,125
  • Sep 28, 2007 7:52am Sep 28, 2007 7:52am
Hello everyone,

I have been reading this thread for a while, and trading this method. I also use phil neal?? macd signal to help me filter good trades from bad. I just did 65 pips from cad/jpy and 45 pips from usd/cad, the news just accelerated the move!

i usually place a few trades after noram close, once things settle down, but beware of placing jpy nzd pairs as i often find u get big position trade movements to knock out your stops, just hold onto your buttocks sometimes!!! Most of my trading is when i get up GMT. I hit my pip target, then off i go to live. If the wife wants a new sofa, i will trade the extra few pips till i get that. Mostly, I compund my account, only taking very little from it. Remember, its not how many pips you get, its the pips value.

I trade for a living so am able to watch my screens throughout the day, thus i dont put limits on, and usually stops of no more than 50. if you get hit on a 50 stop, your either braindead or very unlucky. i use the cornflower method as prescribed by our leader, the hon. vagrant, on a 1 hour chart. i also use a macd (5.13.1). Enter a trade only if a) cornflower rules met, b) macd close higher/lower. Perfect long set up on a pullback is macd below 0.15 -0.30, curved with maybe 5 bars then a higher close, loads of pips as you catch the start of the move, not just a little pullback. Works perfectly with cornflower. For a riskier trade, look for a slight pullback as per cornflower and a continuation on macd, not as many pips but better than a kick in the balls.

Anyway, just did another 30 pips on eur/usd, oh, life is sweet xxx
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
  • #7,126
  • Sep 28, 2007 8:03am Sep 28, 2007 8:03am
shinny: glad things are working for you. Trading for a living...now that's huge if you ask me. Making a few extra pips for a new sofa never hurts. Gotta keep the Mrs. happy. Hoping to make a few pips for that Nissan 350Z I've been eying for the last several years.

I did a quick read on the PMI news due out....keep an eye on things if you can:

Preview - Chicago PMI Begins Post-Rate Cut Data for September
Traders are anxiously awaiting next month's data releases. It will be the first glimpse of the U.S. economy during September, when the Fed Funds Rate was cut by 50 basis points. Admittedly, the cut didn't occur until September 18--just over halfway through the month. This hardly allows time for cut-related liquidity to work its way through the system. Still, the cut was widely anticipated. It's likely a 25-to-50 basis point cut was priced into certain business decisions (exporting, borrowing, manufacturing, etc.). It was certainly priced into the financial markets.

Traders will get an early look at September data during Friday's Chicago PMI release. As we've noted before, the Chicago PMI is the best regional proxy for next week's key ISM Manufacturing survey. This isn't just an opinion; it was confirmed in a study by Briefing.com. While the correlation is stronger in the long-term, the two indicators still print the same direction about 60% of the time on a month-to-month basis. Last month, the Chicago PMI registered at 53.8. This time, the forecast is for 53.5. While this shows expansion (as does any read over 50), it would mean a slight slowdown and certainly doesn't represent a booming economy. For example, the indicator printed at 62.1 last September, showing a much stronger regional activity. The official source listed the following notes about last month's reading:

- Production, New Orders, and Order Backlogs moved down

- Prices Paid expanded at a slower rate

- Lead time for MRO Supplies reached multi-year low levels while Production Materiels lead-times increased.

Tomorrow's release is preceded by the PCE Price Index as well as readings for personal spending and income. It's likely the markets' early action will be dictated by these and possibly unscheduled news (Bear Sterns, mergers, credit markets, etc.). However, a read in the high 50s should be enough of a surprise to boost the USD while a read below 50 would be detrimental to the USD. Speaking of which, the Dollar Index reached its lowest level today (9/27) since its inception in 1973.
__________________
John Pope
TSPKey.com Head of Research
Forex Factory Analyst

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/lastpost.gif Latest Analysis By John Pope
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/lastpost.gif Latest FFAT Analysis
  • #7,127
  • Sep 28, 2007 8:14am Sep 28, 2007 8:14am
Quoting Palmer
shinny: glad things are working for you. Trading for a living...now that's huge if you ask me. Making a few extra pips for a new sofa never hurts. Gotta keep the Mrs. happy. Hoping to make a few pips for that Nissan 350Z I've been eying for the last several years.

I did a quick read on the PMI news due out....keep an eye on things if you can:

Preview - Chicago PMI Begins Post-Rate Cut Data for September
Traders are anxiously awaiting next month's data releases. It will be the first glimpse of the U.S. economy during September, when the Fed Funds Rate was cut by 50 basis points. Admittedly, the cut didn't occur until September 18--just over halfway through the month. This hardly allows time for cut-related liquidity to work its way through the system. Still, the cut was widely anticipated. It's likely a 25-to-50 basis point cut was priced into certain business decisions (exporting, borrowing, manufacturing, etc.). It was certainly priced into the financial markets.

Traders will get an early look at September data during Friday's Chicago PMI release. As we've noted before, the Chicago PMI is the best regional proxy for next week's key ISM Manufacturing survey. This isn't just an opinion; it was confirmed in a study by Briefing.com. While the correlation is stronger in the long-term, the two indicators still print the same direction about 60% of the time on a month-to-month basis. Last month, the Chicago PMI registered at 53.8. This time, the forecast is for 53.5. While this shows expansion (as does any read over 50), it would mean a slight slowdown and certainly doesn't represent a booming economy. For example, the indicator printed at 62.1 last September, showing a much stronger regional activity. The official source listed the following notes about last month's reading:

- Production, New Orders, and Order Backlogs moved down

- Prices Paid expanded at a slower rate

- Lead time for MRO Supplies reached multi-year low levels while Production Materiels lead-times increased.

Tomorrow's release is preceded by the PCE Price Index as well as readings for personal spending and income. It's likely the markets' early action will be dictated by these and possibly unscheduled news (Bear Sterns, mergers, credit markets, etc.). However, a read in the high 50s should be enough of a surprise to boost the USD while a read below 50 would be detrimental to the USD. Speaking of which, the Dollar Index reached its lowest level today (9/27) since its inception in 1973.
__________________
John Pope
TSPKey.com Head of Research
Forex Factory Analyst

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/lastpost.gif Latest Analysis By John Pope
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/lastpost.gif Latest FFAT Analysis
Hi John, this was a post really meant for the cornflower thread, but as i have linked them both thought it would be nice to post it here to. Thanks for the news info, but I am now out of my trades, so a long boozy weekend awaits, after i study sun/mon news events of course.

Have a good weekend everyone, shinny.
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
  • #7,128
  • Sep 28, 2007 11:19am Sep 28, 2007 11:19am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info

This was great. I know where you are coming from when people ask you what to do. As you know people are lazy and even worse people want someone to place blame on. I remember 4 years ago I helped someone and told them what I thought I would do, he told me a week later "Man you lost me money" after that I never tell people what to do because it's a lose / lose deal. Phillip you chat is great and your posts really do help a lot of people but as you know you are always going to have people that want to be told what to do and dont want to do there own work, you just have to overlook them and remember about the good people who will do the work.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #7,129
  • Sep 28, 2007 12:01pm Sep 28, 2007 12:01pm
I just got an email from Phillip and he informed me that he is unable to post trades to the blog because his user account doesn't have access. Everything looks fine, not sure what the problem is with the blog forum. Again, it's a free service so I'm guessing the problem is on 'their' end. This is irritating because I believe Phillip had all week to trade and wasn't able to post anything. I apologize for this but I'm not sure what the problem is. I reset his access to be able to post just a few minutes ago but it's already Friday at noon. Again, sorry that this happened. Still trying to figure it all out...
  • #7,130
  • Sep 28, 2007 1:18pm Sep 28, 2007 1:18pm
Quoting shreem
Hello Mkain, thank for the encouragement.

I know that everything will come in due time with the proper mindset.

Right now, I am looking a the movement of the pound around the 200SMA and see if there is an apportunity will arise in the future. Also, the price barrier of 1.9900 (looking in the past few weeks) can serve as a good resistance coupled with a trendline from May 1st and and May 9th where the price is sitting right now. Also, there is a 50% fibonnaci retracement sitting at 1.9906 from the highest high of April 14th at 2.0134 to the most recent low of May 21th at 1.9676.

If we you look at history, Pound love the 50% fibonnachi a lot of time. Why? That a good question.

So, lot of resitance around 1.9900, so will see what happens there

I know MT4 is great, I have it at home but I cannot use it at work.

That is why I am looking at a web based platform with the capability of plotting the 5-13-1 MACD settings of Phillip with GMT + 2 or even GMT time during my workings hours. So, if anybody have any idea?

I already got one with IT finance but it is based on EST time.

Shreem

Edit: Wow! Pound just broke the 200SMA, will see where it will stop.


AHgrrr! what a miss opportunity. Hope to catch the next one
you are a funny guy shreem, you really are.
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
  • #7,131
  • Sep 29, 2007 6:04am Sep 29, 2007 6:04am
EurUsd

[2007/09/28 09:50:03 AM(Gmt+2)] Phillip Nel says: The rising wedge is now taking a different setup. Although it normally comes down this one can go up as it is within a channel where the top of the channel has not been tested. The crucial was yesterday for the break down and it did not happen. I could not get to you people last night due to bad weather. Just be cautious with the current situation. I am sitting at the sideline till better direction is shown. If you are long, keep the position but get to BE and see if it breaks out to the top to test the top of the channel. http://imagebin.org/10693

Went out and missed the run on 4H but got some later on short term)

The reason why I sitted at the sideline was that I had allready made +108 pips for the week and does not want to risk 40pips for a possible gain. I traded short term for the day and made some pips there as well. So for me was a very good week. The price also broke a very strong monthly TL coming all the way from Oct1998. Next week is going to be interesting.
  • #7,132
  • Sep 29, 2007 3:00pm Sep 29, 2007 3:00pm
108 pips for the week = about 20 pips per day. That's what a lot of people shoot for. Lock them in the bank and call it a 'week'.

Blog stuff is figured out...
  • #7,133
  • Edited 3:42am Sep 30, 2007 3:07am | Edited 3:42am
GbpUsd discussion we had on Friday to go long after the breakout above the Res line @. 2.0300

This question was asked
Phillip what if this candle closes above this broken resistance.still we don't know it goes up in the outer channel?

[2007/09/28 12:21:50 PM] Phillip Nel says: I allways wait for the MACD unless it is highly obvious that it has found resistance. The fact that it tested it once does not say it has found resistance

[2007/09/28 12:23:43 PM] Phillip Nel says: On a breakout trade I will wait for a pullback to the breakout level and then a move away. You can go to the 1H to see if it tested the breakout level and if it moves away agrresive(20+pips) on the 1H you can enter the trade but the 4H retest is the safest.
Wait for the retest of the breakout level.

[2007/09/28 03:52:49 PM] Phillip Nel says: Have a look at this trade. I was away but this was a sitter according to the rules. Break out, pulled back and then took off.
[2007/09/28 03:53:20 PM] Phillip Nel says: You needed the 1H to see the pulback to the breakout level


[2007/09/28 03:59:59 PM] Richard7 says: Good morning Phillip. I missed that trade by about 10 minutes. At least I'm seeing it
[2007/09/28 04:00:43 PM] Phillip Nel says: I just came in saw it. Was a nice setup
[2007/09/28 04:00:55 PM] mkain says: as phillip says it's better wait the bounce to avoid the false breakouts
[2007/09/28 04:01:06 PM] Phillip Nel says: Exactly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GbpUsd Pullback.JPG Size: 105 KB
  • #7,134
  • Sep 30, 2007 4:19am Sep 30, 2007 4:19am
Info
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Breakout Trading.JPG Size: 104 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip GbpUsd Breakout Trade.zip   814 KB | 1,343 downloads
  • #7,135
  • Sep 30, 2007 7:16am Sep 30, 2007 7:16am
Phillip:

Haven't checked email but did you get my email back to you about the blog?
  • #7,136
  • Sep 30, 2007 8:02am Sep 30, 2007 8:02am
Quoting Palmer
Phillip:

Haven't checked email but did you get my email back to you about the blog?
Yes. Looks like it is OK now. Thanks
  • #7,137
  • Sep 30, 2007 4:02pm Sep 30, 2007 4:02pm
For those who have difficulty understanding spoken English. Refer to original post 7136 for the chart that goes with the lesson. Thank you Phillip!
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Phillip Nel- Breakout Trading- 30Sept2007.doc   79 KB | 858 downloads
  • #7,138
  • Sep 30, 2007 4:04pm Sep 30, 2007 4:04pm
Quoting OldDog
For those who have difficulty understanding spoken English. Refer to original post 7136 for the chart that goes with the lesson. Thank you Phillip!

I thank you and the others typing for all the work.
Phillip
  • #7,139
  • Sep 30, 2007 8:50pm Sep 30, 2007 8:50pm
  •  shauny
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Still learning and never gonna stop | 127 Posts
hi guys, can someone from skype chat add me back into the chat? I accidentally leave the chat, cause when i typed, my message couldn't deliever.. A thousand thanks!! my skype name is shaun--
  • #7,140
  • Sep 30, 2007 9:21pm Sep 30, 2007 9:21pm
EUR looks short 1.4261 Short Stop @ 1.4285
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
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