EUR/USD Trading Room

Not suggesting any trader take a LONG term short off a 4 hour chart. Not epecting a reversal here. Way too soon for that, and not my area of expertise.

Possible correction??? maybe.
1.45??? maybe.

Yet on a pullback, why not trade the correction instead of waiting???? I'd bet my "shrinkin-stinkin" dollar someone will be trading if/when it occurs....
We never ''marry a position or view"....as I'm sure many don't.....yet so many DO!....and they miss the early warning signs. Giving back hard earned profits during a pullback/correction.

So 1.45 or 1.25.......breakout or breakdown....don't care....cuz all things are possible!

Fxj

Taking an intraday short..Our account only and for review....discreationary entry ( 3ema ) at some decent resistence.

Short from 1.4094
Targeting 1.4062
S/L @1.4103

Risk 9pips including spread
Potential profit 32 pips

Stop to be adjusted to 1.4094 (B/E) on a 1.4085 break
Expecting a slow thin market with JPY Holiday - Hence the very tight stop just over the figure.


WELL that didn't take long to be proven WRONG!!! A whole 21 minutes!!
STOPPED out at 1.4103 -9pips

15 minute scalp updates.....re-evaluated seeking 30 pips on a day like this....aimed for 20 instead after trade #1.
Plus it appeared we pushed for a trade on that one...IFR report was pretty accurate, used that as a "gauge''

Also used 5 min scalping with another acount...posted in the Fozzy thread

Update for review

Posting Daily for review.....No Confirmation as of yet

The euro was a touch lower against the dollar due to looming concerns about the health of the economic recovery in the euro zone after the Ifo research institute said its business climate index for Germany fell to 104.2 in September from 105.8 in August.

Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn said the first signs of a slowdown in the economy are now visible.
"Thomson Financial"

Trend still up....no confirmation on a reversal

This is my EUR/USD chart.

iiivb

Posting for review.... 1.4130 had been good support.

Started off trade for scalping only, yet IFR news stated a possible break b-4 US news....so I hung on for a break. Traded with the trend on this one.

EURO$ is not very predictable right now. Notice on the one hr charts how the candles shadows are long. And how the rallys are running into sharp drops right after.

Its going to be a choppy ride up to its topping out level. Could be 1.4500 or might not go all the way there. Theres no telling at this point.

Trend is up and bias is up. But use caution. Because its running into sell orders on every rally. The closer to 1.45 it gets the more sell orders it will run into.

Dave

What's the big deal with 4500? I hear this number thrown around a lot.

.

Ugh. The Euro didn't even exist back then. I hardly believe that a ficticious peak in 1993 has relevance to today's market. Traders thought the same thing about the GBPUSD not being able to break 2. It never hesitated as the number was passed. I wonder if institutions change their global views on currency flow just because a rate trades near a round number.

Regardless, thanks for the chart.

Well, 1.4420 is roughly the 1.38 extension after the 2005 retracement. Round it up for slippage and for CB'ers that have trouble with more than 2 decimal places....
Also note 1.4142 is roughly sqrt(2). I'm sure there's a theory there somebody can write a paper on

If anything it is just a psychological number, and there are probably massive option barriers and stops residing on the other side.

Are you kidding me, that's a Phd thesis right there. You are a genius, sir, a genius!

Most Know that I DO NOT trade news....yet with the FF news section, and timely reports....it has helped me view things a bit differently. Not to TRADE the news....just being more aware and informed.

Hence this trade...

8:23 am this morning, a short news "flash" type report from FXToday....
Leak of a 10% decline in New Home Sales....ahhhh, no wonder market was rising before any news was released. Along with an IFR "blurb" about taking out highs to test 1.42.
Well, that stalled about 1.4190 or so.....The rest one can see on my chart, my way of ''seeing'' things. YET, I'd NOT have ever entered into this trade without the above info before a NEWS release!
BUT, in my mind.....BUY the RUMOR - SELL the FACT.
I saw the Short trigger on my 15m chart...B-4 news....risked 30 pips(see SL) and aimed for 30pips.
I've woken up from a nap, checked the news story again, saw that there had been 240 views, and only 9 voted it useful!!! 9!
Posting Chart for review.....

VERY Choppy Trading on the lower frames. Reports indicated dealers were going for 1.42.....stayed with trend on higher charts, targeted 1.42 once a BUY was triggered.

Posting Chart for review.....

WOW....$$ just hammered today.....I "thought" the onslaught would end with the London close and Month/Qtr end. NO WAY!
Now I don't trade this late on a Friday....Yet I could not pull myself away from this train wreck!
Once this pair pulled itself out of the "choppy" trading....Went to a smaller time frame ( 15min ).....Traded what we saw, Eur/Usd Trade #2 was VERY hard to do....going long at these levels....though knowing we'd be in cash by days end. Profit target WAS arbitrary, as there was/is nothing to base a target on. Also, never expected Target to be hit ( today )....just worked the trade using a trailing stop.

Apologies for getting around to posting so late, screen shot was saved at trades end....been a busy day.

Posting Chart for review....hopefully the picture can convey the trading process of working this trade.

Fxj
BTW....Trade was with Oanda....Can't enter this type info on Oanda charts.
Actual Entry 1.42038 / Exit @ 1.42538 Trailing stops were round numbers.

Daily cross
Posting for review

Since I just got admitted into the trading room, I'd just like to give my 2 cents worth of the current eurusd situation.

The euro has been on a more or less steady rise since the sub-prime problems and that has resulted in what you may call euphoria. However, with so much expectations priced into the euro, I feel that it is riskier now as any single piece of good news for the dollar or bad news for the euro will lead to a good decline. As such, for the next week, I expect the euro to decline and the usd to appreciate as the market absorbs the payroll news and to adjust itself to brace for euro ministers who have been bitching around about the high euro. I have my shorts put out but of course, I would change my positions the moment prices tell me so as there is nothing more important than having prices confirm your view.

I’ve got to still remain in my bullish posture on this one based off daily chart. Thus far I’m not seeing anything that sets off any bearish alarms from a daily perspective. I would however take note if 1.4058 gets violated. Last week the 4hr did flag a short due to the expansion of volatility but that was short lived. Since it thusted down with some power I’d like a quick thrust up but would not rule out the possibility of this thing ranging for awhile.

I view bull task test highs and stick (caution if stalls prior to highs)
Bear task drop it under 1.4058