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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #6,281
  • Sep 22, 2007 6:36pm Sep 22, 2007 6:36pm
I would like to hear some thoughts about swing lows and highs... how do we know when we are at a swing low or high??? There is not always a PB there...

How can we know if it is start of a new swing or just a retrace? On the other hand... how can we know when it is an ABC or 123 or whatever, instead of a whole new swing... is this all hindsight ?? After the fact ???
  • #6,282
  • Sep 22, 2007 7:35pm Sep 22, 2007 7:35pm
Looking at monthly charts.... giant inverted Head and Shoulders.... drawing trend across neckline... shows we should hit about 1.4219 ???

High in March 1995 1.4532

Another high from Sept 1992 1.4108
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  • #6,283
  • Sep 22, 2007 7:40pm Sep 22, 2007 7:40pm
We are getting close to 161 FE... around 1.4133

Some more room to go up on eur??? Maybe worth a small size LONG to there... what can I lose ? Another couple of bucks ??

Once again... alone in this thread... everyone else is asleep...
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  • #6,284
  • Sep 22, 2007 8:14pm Sep 22, 2007 8:14pm
Hi Tiki

Looks like you are going through a difficult period at the moment.
I know how you feel when you lose your confidence its hard work and charts are just lines and colours
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
  • #6,285
  • Sep 22, 2007 8:19pm Sep 22, 2007 8:19pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
We are getting close to 161 FE... around 1.4133

Some more room to go up on eur??? Maybe worth a small size LONG to there... what can I lose ? Another couple of bucks ??

Once again... alone in this thread... everyone else is asleep...
Well you might be soon.

First question....What are those Fibs doing on your chart and what do you think they're telling you? ((OK 2 Qs)
  • #6,286
  • Sep 22, 2007 8:25pm Sep 22, 2007 8:25pm
They tell me we got a few more pips up, and then hopefully a big bounce down !!! But then, that' just me...


Quoting PeterFM
Well you might be soon.

First question....What are those Fibs doing on your chart and what do you think they're telling you? ((OK 2 Qs)
  • #6,287
  • Sep 22, 2007 8:27pm Sep 22, 2007 8:27pm
And very cool if a PB could be included in that... but that's just a dream right now..


Quoting PeterFM
Well you might be soon.

First question....What are those Fibs doing on your chart and what do you think they're telling you? ((OK 2 Qs)
  • #6,288
  • Sep 22, 2007 8:34pm Sep 22, 2007 8:34pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
And very cool if a PB could be included in that... but that's just a dream right now..
What do you mean PB now before it hits the fib?
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
  • #6,289
  • Sep 22, 2007 8:34pm Sep 22, 2007 8:34pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
They tell me we got a few more pips up, and then hopefully a big bounce down !!! But then, that' just me...
They just look upside down to me, but I assume you're shooting for the expansion price as a target right at the top of the screen?

I'm off to bed now but here's a chart I've just Fibbed up. I didn't trade this as I was in AUDUSD so didn't look elsewhere, but if I'd been looking to trade the EUR this IS where I would have moved that buy limit to
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  • #6,290
  • Sep 22, 2007 8:55pm Sep 22, 2007 8:55pm
PB is Pin Bar hopefully bouncing off the 161 fib line

Quoting steve10%
What do you mean PB now before it hits the fib?
  • #6,291
  • Sep 22, 2007 9:31pm Sep 22, 2007 9:31pm
Peter... while I can see where you drew the fib lines, I will now have to admit my true ignorance... !!! I just don't understand what you are saying...

Yes, I would be aiming for the 161 fib line in my chart...

I know I just don't understand plain english... so you will have to just come out with it and put it in jack and jill terms for me... since I clearly do not understand plain forex...

Again... I seem to have missed a class somewhere... seem to have missed lots of classes in my life, though I don't remember playing hooky...

You have gone to bed... and now I will not be able to sleep !!!!!!!!!

Quoting PeterFM
They just look upside down to me, but I assume you're shooting for the expansion price as a target right at the top of the screen?

I'm off to bed now but here's a chart I've just Fibbed up. I didn't trade this as I was in AUDUSD so didn't look elsewhere, but if I'd been looking to trade the EUR this IS where I would have moved that buy limit to
  • #6,292
  • Sep 22, 2007 9:37pm Sep 22, 2007 9:37pm
Here you can see where I got my fibs from...

Actually I am not shooting at anything yet... just thinking about shooting !!


Quoting PeterFM
They just look upside down to me, but I assume you're shooting for the expansion price as a target right at the top of the screen?

I'm off to bed now but here's a chart I've just Fibbed up. I didn't trade this as I was in AUDUSD so didn't look elsewhere, but if I'd been looking to trade the EUR this IS where I would have moved that buy limit to
Attached Image
  • #6,293
  • Edited 10:23pm Sep 22, 2007 10:00pm | Edited 10:23pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
PB is Pin Bar hopefully bouncing off the 161 fib line
Right got you I thought you meant pull back (PB) no wonder I was confused

Just looking at your posts you are having a difficult time at the moment.
I know how you feel at times.
Up until the August correction I was having a good run and I shorted the dow at the top but just got stopped out with a small profit before the big move.The same with copper.
Then I lost money shorting but in retraces and lost 10% of my account.I was correct in the move but wrong in the trade.
You have to bear in mind the markets are very volatile at the moment and this can shake you out of a trade even if you are right with the direction.
I take it you are expecting the price to hit the fib then sell but you are concerned you may be wrong.I take it you have seen similar patterns ,wanted to trade then been angry for not taking the trade.If so I know exactly how you feel.
Take a step back look at the charts if they give signals of the correct set up then take the trade with the correct money managment in place
Then if you are wrong you can still fight another day
Easily said hard to do and when someone else tells you anoying
If you put too much pressure on yourself worrying about things it clouds your judgement.
You have to be at ease with yourself in all aspects of your life so that it does not affect your trading judgement----easier said than done

Anyway its 4am here I am off to bed I will look in tomorrow
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
  • #6,294
  • Sep 22, 2007 10:44pm Sep 22, 2007 10:44pm
Both of these candles on the daily are Bullish Haramis or High Wave candles. They represent indicision or confusion and need to have confirmation before trading. They are not Hammers or Pins and in my opinion direction has not been established. I think in both cases we will see at least a small retrace or continuation of the downtrend to retest the hypothetical support before any trend reversal to the upside occurs. I would favor the USD/Cad long only because I think being at parity is a very significant occurance and therefore could be percieved to have some support. EUR/CAD is not in a support area that I see except for bouncing off of dialy fib 161.8 and 1.400 area. Now, I am not saying they won't move long, just that we need to be patient to see confirmation of direction. USD/CAD price is currently sitting at dialy fib 161.8
Dion
  • #6,295
  • Sep 22, 2007 10:53pm Sep 22, 2007 10:53pm
I agree with this !!! They just are not good PBs and might go either way... I won't trade anything on Sunday... and probably wait to see how they go on Monday...


Quoting HipsterPipster
Both of these candles on the daily are Bullish Haramis or High Wave candles. They represent indicision or confusion and need to have confirmation before trading. They are not Hammers or Pins and in my opinion direction has not been established. I think in both cases we will see at least a small retrace or continuation of the downtrend to retest the hypothetical support before any trend reversal to the upside occurs. I would favor the USD/Cad long only because I think being at parity is a very significant occurance and therefore could be percieved to have some support. EUR/CAD is not in a support area that I see except for bouncing off of dialy fib 161.8 and 1.400 area. Now, I am not saying they won't move long, just that we need to be patient to see confirmation of direction. USD/CAD price is currently sitting at dialy fib 161.8
Dion
  • #6,296
  • Sep 22, 2007 11:12pm Sep 22, 2007 11:12pm
I find this fasinating. This is a FIB ARC. I don't use these but have been testing them. Look how there is consolidation on the down trend around the Fib 23.6 @ 50 and even a little around the 38.2. Now price is around 61.8 and may begin a new direction or consolidate (blue arrow).
Dion
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  • #6,297
  • Sep 23, 2007 4:12am Sep 23, 2007 4:12am
Quoting SeekingLight
you're not going to make money by risking more than you win. Simply really.
If you risk 1% each time you enter a trade and you close out 0.2-0.3%, then all that will happen is a decrease in your account. Simple, brutal truth.

The only way you can even make it to break even when closing for less than 1:1 is if you feel more than half your trades will be winners for at least 1:1 of your risk.

Keep in mind - trend traders make profit with 30% win ratio because they HOLD the trades, not because they close them out. They spend most of the time "losing". But they aren't really. They are simply passing time until the big riders come along again, which they inevitably will. EURUSD is such a perfect example.
Imagine your plan on something we just had: The EURUSD PB at 1.3440. You close out 80% at 1.3500. Erm. Say again?
600 pips later you are sitting in the corner sobbing, cursing and being angry at yourself as 1.4000 is now a tiny dot below..

Is that approach really a good way to make profit?

A gem of a post.
  • #6,298
  • Sep 23, 2007 4:37am Sep 23, 2007 4:37am
Quoting SeekingLight
I'm sure Mike's videos (they are PF Material before people start swamping him with PMs about "where can I find those videos")
Are these up yet?
  • #6,299
  • Sep 23, 2007 5:04am Sep 23, 2007 5:04am
I will be watching this very carefully this week:

On the weekly chart we have a pin bar. The interesting thing about this is that the price where you would enter is almost directly on a significant PPZ. There is strong resistance there and if it moves up through this, there could be a nice momentum move.
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  • #6,300
  • Sep 23, 2007 5:07am Sep 23, 2007 5:07am
A closer look at this cross - this time on the daily.

Look at the resistance at 0.8745. Notice how it bounced directly off this area in late May. (look left)

Also - the weekly pin is off the 50 fib. I just drew it on the daily chart as it made it clearer.
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