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FXTradepro: Strategy using a “Semi-Martingale” Position Sizing

  • #461
  • Sep 21, 2007 8:53pm Sep 21, 2007 8:53pm
Today i have some questions for IBFX

I'm trading now in demo account very well

So i' going to open live account at IBFX

But can I use this EA in both Mini account and Standard account?

and can i trade Micro lots(0.01) in both Mini account and Standard account?

Waiting for reply, thanks
  • #462
  • Sep 21, 2007 9:14pm Sep 21, 2007 9:14pm
Quoting jones247
I'm consistently successful with GBPJPY... This is the result of my last trade: entry @ 2:35 GMT; closed @ 11:14 GMT... 12th progression... SL-25, TP-105...

The only problem is the maximum capital margin reserves needed to protect against 24 progressions. Based on the FXTradepro calculator, I would need about 94,250 (although I belive that the cross currency valuation would actual require about $82,000)...

Nonetheless, the point is that my captial requirement for this currency pair is much more substantial than the traditional SL-10 & TP-40 strategy for pairs with lower spreads. As a rule of thumb, my SL s/b at least 2.5 times greater than the spread. Of course, as a positive offset, the profits are proportionately higher in accordance to the capital reserve requirements.

Walt
Hi Walt,
Here are some stats to consider with your approach.

Running GBP/JPY with an SL = 25 (assuming 9 pip spread), TP = 105, and a prog level out to 24, you will have a risk of failure at 1:23, assuming you just entered randomly - which I know you are not but it does serve as a comparison since if you traded Dans progression in the exact same manner the comparitive risk is 1:66 ... which is much safer!

Conclusion - why trade GBP/JPY!!!!!!!! You are taking on nearly three times the risk than you would if you just traded using your entry method and Dans original progression sequence.

You may be making more profit since your progression requires at least twice the capital outlay compared to what Dans does - so I doubt your releative return is that much better, and any additional profit is relative to the risk you take.

If is also false to assume it is a good pair to trade because of its volatility - the brokers compensate by increasing the spread - so you have actually had to compensate for this by increasing your SL - which in turn forces you to increase your TP to get a meaningful progression sequence - and a reasonable profit curve.

So forget the idea that you are going to make more, or gain better volatility that will improve your odds. In fact you are trading with much more risk when trading the GBP/JPY and the progression sequence you suggest.

If you want to assess which pairs are best to trade- then a possible way to rank them is to look at what I call the "Risk Coefficent" (RC) - that is the Average Daily Range (over ~10 days) divided by the broker spread. The higher the RC the better the pair is to trade from a (theoretical) risk versus volatility perspective.

So for example:

Euro/USD = 70/2 = 35
GBP/USD = 150/4 = 37.5
Euro/JPY = 165/4 = 41.25
GBP/JPY = 290/9 = 32

So you can see there are probably better pairs to trade than GBP/JPY.

Tim
  • #463
  • Sep 21, 2007 9:40pm Sep 21, 2007 9:40pm
JP......See my answers below in RED

Dan

Quoting jphole
Today i have some questions for IBFX
I'm trading now in demo account very well
So i' going to open live account at IBFX

But can I use this EA in both Mini account and Standard account? YES

and can i trade Micro lots(0.01) in both Mini account and Standard account? YES - 0.01 lots in a Standard Account = $0.10 a pip
0.01 lots in a Mini Account = $0.01 a pip at IBFX
So you just need to change the Lot Sizes in the EA accordingly
Waiting for reply, thanks
  • #464
  • Sep 22, 2007 4:02am Sep 22, 2007 4:02am
am i right to say this.......

1) i long at 1.1000.......then got stopped out at 1.0990

2) i now short at 1.0990.......and need to go down to 1.0950 for the TP of 40pips, right ?

( so i need price to move 50 pips in the right direction after suffering a stoploss ? )

this can be done manually, right ?

i was tempted to try it out as it can give daily profits but seems to need a big a/c to give USD100 daily profit...........also the fear of an extended choppy market might kill me off.........
  • #465
  • Sep 22, 2007 5:45am Sep 22, 2007 5:45am
You are right. And yes, this can be done manually. I did this at Oanda. It needs heavy screen time especially in the beginning of a trade sequence.

Regards - Xaron
  • #466
  • Sep 22, 2007 10:12am Sep 22, 2007 10:12am
I try this semi-martingale on YM(Dow mini) with one of trend indicator for entry signal and get the following result since July07, I still think that stock index future is a better instrument to trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ym1.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #467
  • Sep 22, 2007 5:33pm Sep 22, 2007 5:33pm
Just wanted to say thanks for your hard work and for sharing your system. Also, thank you to everyone else who has shared their results and possible modifications. I have been tinkering with my own similar system for awhile now and reading this thread has really helped me to see that I was on the right track. My problem is I was trading manually and because I'm not able to be in front of the computer from the start of the European open to the NY close every day, I missed many breakout opportunities. Your EA will be an incredible help with this! I will be using it to demo trade for now, but will probably move up to micro-lots in my live account after I'm sure I have it running properly. Then to mini-lots where I hope to see the success that others in this thread are enjoying.

I'd also appreciate it if you'd PM or email me your private forum so I may join all of you there as well.

Thanks again!
  • #468
  • Sep 22, 2007 7:15pm Sep 22, 2007 7:15pm
Quoting Haystack
Just wanted to say thanks for your hard work and for sharing your system. Also, thank you to everyone else who has shared their results and possible modifications. I have been tinkering with my own similar system for awhile now and reading this thread has really helped me to see that I was on the right track. My problem is I was trading manually and because I'm not able to be in front of the computer from the start of the European open to the NY close every day, I missed many breakout opportunities. Your EA will be an incredible help with this! I will be using it to demo trade for now, but will probably move up to micro-lots in my live account after I'm sure I have it running properly. Then to mini-lots where I hope to see the success that others in this thread are enjoying.

I'd also appreciate it if you'd PM or email me your private forum so I may join all of you there as well.

Thanks again!
Hello Haystack and welcome to the thread.....I just sent you an email.

Dan
  • #469
  • Sep 23, 2007 9:36am Sep 23, 2007 9:36am
A quiet weekend on this Thread...Where is everybody? 588 downloads of the EA....Let's hear from some new people.

Dan
  • #470
  • Sep 23, 2007 10:18am Sep 23, 2007 10:18am
FXTradepro..i was always against experts and martingale strategies, but your approach is more than clever as i was reading it carelessly at the begining and i couldn't stop untill i finished , i appreciate your sharing and efforts .
please if there is a special forum of yours with more of this discussion going on invite me maybe i could be of some help..thanks again
  • #471
  • Sep 23, 2007 10:37am Sep 23, 2007 10:37am
Quoting cementman
FXTradepro..i was always against experts and martingale strategies, but your approach is more than clever as i was reading it carelessly at the begining and i couldn't stop untill i finished , i appreciate your sharing and efforts .
please if there is a special forum of yours with more of this discussion going on invite me maybe i could be of some help..thanks again
Thanks cementman..........I juts sent you a message.

Dan
  • #472
  • Sep 23, 2007 11:46am Sep 23, 2007 11:46am
Nice weekend!

I'm thirsty for more information about this GREATFUL system.

Actually I wanna know your private forum.

Can u e-mail me or etc.?
  • #473
  • Sep 23, 2007 11:53am Sep 23, 2007 11:53am
Quoting jphole
Nice weekend!

I'm thirsty for more information about this GREATFUL system.

Actually I wanna know your private forum.

Can u e-mail me or etc.?
Just sent you an Email jp....

Dan
  • #474
  • Sep 23, 2007 12:18pm Sep 23, 2007 12:18pm
Hi Everyone.....Let's keep the focus of this Thread on the Strategy/Method!

 If anyone is interested in the Private Forum....PLEASE EMAIL ME or PM ME PRIVATELY and kindly do not post about your interest in this Thread.

Thanks so much.....

Dan
  • #475
  • Sep 23, 2007 6:37pm Sep 23, 2007 6:37pm
Hello FXTRADEPRO,

I just came across this thread, and I like what I see so far. I have two questions though. One, how do you change the magic number? Is it some random digits or do I have to pm you each time for a new set of numbers?
Two, I have some difficulties getting the EA to trade at a preset time, maybe because I don't know the right way to put it. What, for instance is the GMT for London Open? If I want to preset the EA to trade during this time how do I do it? I'm in the EST.

Sorry some questions sound dumb.


Thanks
  • #476
  • Sep 23, 2007 6:42pm Sep 23, 2007 6:42pm
Welcome inyene.........There are no dumb questions and I will try to answer your questions BELOW IN RED so that you understand.

Dan


Quoting inyene
Hello FXTRADEPRO,

I just came across this thread, and I like what I see so far. I have two questions though.

One, how do you change the magic number? Is it some random digits or do I have to pm you each time for a new set of numbers? YOU select your own Magic Numbers. It is just the way that the EA keeps track of your Sequence, so be sure to use a different number for each Sequence Of Trades.


Two, I have some difficulties getting the EA to trade at a preset time, maybe because I don't know the right way to put it. What, for instance is the GMT for London Open? If I want to preset the EA to trade during this time how do I do it? I'm in the EST. The EA uses YOUR BROKERS SERVER TIME for the Time Entry option, so you need to identify what time is the London Open on your Platform. You then enter that hour in the Time Entry parameter in the EA.
  • #477
  • Sep 23, 2007 7:09pm Sep 23, 2007 7:09pm
I have had some success on demo account using:
TP =100
SL =100
GBPJPY
0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.8 etc
Maximum trades before profit for the past 4-5 weeks = 4
  • #478
  • Sep 23, 2007 7:16pm Sep 23, 2007 7:16pm
Quoting aelimian
I have had some success on demo account using:
TP =100
SL =100
GBPJPY
0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.8 etc
Maximum trades before profit for the past 4-5 weeks = 4

Interesting results......Obviously you need to double the Lots in the Sequence because of the large SL. Subsequently, you would not be able to last as many progressions as my standard set-up, however, with such a large SL, you would not likely need as many.

Keep us posted...

Dan
  • #479
  • Sep 23, 2007 10:00pm Sep 23, 2007 10:00pm
I'm about to test this system with a swing trader's methodology. In other words, instead of SL-10, TP-40 with GBPUSD, I am using the following for GBPUSD: SL-75, TP-150, with a semi-martingale position sizing. I not certain whether to begin with 0.1 lots or 1.0 lots. I typically will enter after the 3rd consecutive daily retracement.

Walt
  • #480
  • Sep 23, 2007 11:10pm Sep 23, 2007 11:10pm
Quoting jones247
I'm about to test this system with a swing trader's methodology. In other words, instead of SL-10, TP-40 with GBPUSD, I am using the following for GBPUSD: SL-75, TP-150, with a semi-martingale position sizing. I not certain whether to begin with 0.1 lots or 1.0 lots. I typically will enter after the 3rd consecutive daily retracement.

Walt
Walt..........The Strategy is certainly adaptable to a Swing Trading Methodology. I personally don't think that your SL should be so big but that is an individual choice. Also, a smaller SL will enable you to sustain more potential progressions with less funds. Just some food for thought.

Let us know how this works out for you.

Dan
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