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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #6,261
  • Sep 21, 2007 8:04pm Sep 21, 2007 8:04pm
Yes, I do have a very hard time waiting... I feel bored and as if I am doing nothing when I have to wait... bad looking PBs then become very tempting...

Seems like so many are making pips everyday.. and I just sit waiting...
  • #6,262
  • Sep 21, 2007 8:14pm Sep 21, 2007 8:14pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Unfortunately, I don't think either of them are the greatest, and I doubt if they even register as worth looking at

...
We'll check back again next Friday...
  • #6,263
  • Sep 21, 2007 8:50pm Sep 21, 2007 8:50pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Yes, I do have a very hard time waiting... I feel bored and as if I am doing nothing when I have to wait... bad looking PBs then become very tempting...

Seems like so many are making pips everyday.. and I just sit waiting...

Yeh,
sometimes i find myself looking so hard i start seeing things that are not really there.thats when i need to just walk away.with no trade Thats patience. yes its hard & will be for me for a while i think.

I find going over Jims videos & fiji's writings over & over helps pass the time & remind me how to trade in a way that is profitable..
  • #6,264
  • Sep 22, 2007 3:20am Sep 22, 2007 3:20am
Quoting raczekfx
We'll check back again next Friday...
Just want to say, just b/c I don't find them worth trading doesn't mean they aren't great trades. I just have certain criteria and standards that fit to my trading plan. If it doesn't fit, I don't trade it. Having a trading plan is really crucial to me. So when I say, something doesn't look right, doesn't mean it can't be perfectly valid in someone else's trading plan. The last thing I am out to do is prove myself right or wrong on an individual trade(single trades are meaningless to me)

Many pips to all!
  • #6,265
  • Sep 22, 2007 1:55pm Sep 22, 2007 1:55pm
I do have a system... actually it is a couple of systems... and I really think of them as tools in my tool box to use as needed as the situation needs... PA is the third set of tools being added to my tool box...

mbqb11 at 23 years of age, if you really are as accomplished in forex as all say you are and as you seem to be... I don't care what anyone says, this is not a normal or easy thing... I can see where you may have an advantage if your dad was trading... you maybe picked things up before hand that you did not even realize... But still... not an everyday thing seeing where you are at.

Unfortunately, I do not have, nor is there any way I will ever have 20 hours a day to devote to learning forex... but I do spend every spare moment with forex, which is up to 4 hours a day... and no, my 5 year old does not always appreciate this...
  • #6,266
  • Sep 22, 2007 1:57pm Sep 22, 2007 1:57pm
And as an added idea... maybe we could all toss around the idea of having some kind of seminar once or twice a year for all of us j16 people to get together and learn even more...

I know if such a thing existed, you could count me in for sure... in fact I would be willing to organize or help organize such an event !!!
  • #6,267
  • Sep 22, 2007 2:00pm Sep 22, 2007 2:00pm
Quoting Tiki Trader

Unfortunately, I do not have, nor is there any way I will ever have 20 hours a day to devote to learning forex... but I do spend every spare moment with forex, which is up to 4 hours a day... and no, my 5 year old does not always appreciate this...
Well I think we can both agree there are much more important thigns in life. Everyone does what they can to get to the next step. I think every person that ever tries to trade can do it, but they have to be willing to go through the ups and downs. I was lucky enough to be firstly have stumbled onto such great people to help me along my way, and secondly have no other commitments then myself(as selfish as that is). Success in forex is no where near as awesome as the success of having a 5 year old son

You are awesome tiki I love your spirit now I gotta go work on some videos !

Mike
  • #6,268
  • Edited 2:29pm Sep 22, 2007 2:09pm | Edited 2:29pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Unfortunately, I don't think either of them are the greatest, and I doubt if they even register as worth looking at

Heya Tiki.
Well I don't like them either, but the USDCAD's gotta rise sometime.
I don't like the constant mention of Oil though.(not from you, you're cool, but from the analysts surrounding us everywhere hehe)
I could just as soon say it's correlated with Gold or Silver. Same charts lately. Want to know what I think why that is?
Because they're all denominated in - yepp, there's my real reason - USD.
Dollar devalues, all commodities need to rise to fetch the same "value", no?
USDX to me is more important as a guide there than Oil, but yea, they correlate, too, for the same reason really. So either works ;p
(I can't see USDCAD below 1 for long just as I can't see oil between 80-100$ for long term YET)

However, if EURCAD turns around you can have the USDCAD sideways or up even as EURUSD rises, which can be pretty spooky. We already had that happen for a while before the breakdown, while I was cursing my head off getting whiplashed to death on USDCAD, meantime EURUSD was rising merrily.


As for the exits and the main position closing out after 20-30 pips - worst idea EVER.
Check this thread:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=184302

It's pretty okay I guess, the main point I want to make by linking it is: you're not going to make money by risking more than you win. Simply really.
If you risk 1% each time you enter a trade and you close out 0.2-0.3%, then all that will happen is a decrease in your account. Simple, brutal truth.

The only way you can even make it to break even when closing for less than 1:1 is if you feel more than half your trades will be winners for at least 1:1 of your risk.

Keep in mind - trend traders make profit with 30% win ratio because they HOLD the trades, not because they close them out. They spend most of the time "losing". But they aren't really. They are simply passing time until the big riders come along again, which they inevitably will. EURUSD is such a perfect example.
Imagine your plan on something we just had: The EURUSD PB at 1.3440. You close out 80% at 1.3500. Erm. Say again?
600 pips later you are sitting in the corner sobbing, cursing and being angry at yourself as 1.4000 is now a tiny dot below..

Is that approach really a good way to make profit?

My main worry is:
I read a lot of disappointment and growing distrust in your recent posts.
You seem to have gone from enthusiasm over pins to not trusting them anymore. You already anticipate failure before the chart even had a chance to move. This will seriously hinder your trading if it takes you over and grows to hamper your decision making.
The important distinction is: there is
1. justified doubt about a PB being a good or a bad one. That's fine. No confluence, bad placement, bad proportions. Wunderbar. No problem not to trust it and skip it.

and there is

2. getting burnt so many times that even pretty good looking setups "scare" you because you're emotionally stressed out from it.

Be careful not to fall into the trap or Nr 2. Been there, had that. Turns into a vicious circle of "skipping good setup due to fear, see it work, be angry, in turn make the mistake of taking a bad setup next, see that fail, lose even more faith, repeat".

The last two bits are fine though - daily PBs and WITH the trend. Especially the latter sounds good to me.

I just hope we won't suffer the usual irony of fate and just turn around as this takes effect

Take care Tiki.


SeekingLight

P.S. I just found http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=5931 as well, also a really nice read on some of the topics, too.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #6,269
  • Edited 3:07pm Sep 22, 2007 2:10pm | Edited 3:07pm
Quoting mbqb11
Well I think we can both agree there are much more important thigns in life. Everyone does what they can to get to the next step. I think every person that ever tries to trade can do it, but they have to be willing to go through the ups and downs. I was lucky enough to be firstly have stumbled onto such great people to help me along my way, and secondly have no other commitments then myself(as selfish as that is). Success in forex is no where near as awesome as the success of having a 5 year old son

You are awesome tiki I love your spirit now I gotta go work on some videos !

Mike
I don't think it is at all selfish... !! That is one of the advantages some have when they are your age... no commitments except to themselves... but as you get older, there are not many who can stay in that situation... sometimes it makes one look back and think about how things could have been different... yet, all we can do is work to overcome that aspect... I am 50... I have my own business, but I will have nothing as far as retirement goes except SS which basically is nothing... so for me at this point, I have a real sense of urgency to learn forex and to be profitable so I can continue to provide myself and my family with an income in another 10 or 15 years... yes I have time still, but it is passing fast... my main goal was to add just 10% to my forex account this year and the year is almost gone... I still have not accompished this simple goal... another year goes by... and I remember saying the same thing last year...

On the other hand... I am breaking even this year... last year I was losing money... but this is only a small consolation when one says to himself " I will not and cannot and refuse to fail " at this...
  • #6,270
  • Sep 22, 2007 2:38pm Sep 22, 2007 2:38pm
Quoting SeekingLight
My main worry is:
I read a lot of disappointment and growing distrust in your recent posts.
You seem to have gone from enthusiasm over pins to not trusting them anymore. You already anticipate failure before the chart even had a chance to move. This will seriously hinder your trading if it takes you over and grows to hamper your decision making.
The important distinction is: there is
1. justified doubt about a PB being a good or a bad one. That's fine. No confluence, bad placement, bad proportions. Wunderbar. No problem not to trust it and skip it.
Absoutly the way I am feeling !!! Because so far the real truth is that I just trade any PB !!! Because my ability to find confluence or 'reasons' a trade might be good, are sincerely limited... I just don't do it well. I won't say I can't do it... or that I am not improving... My trading since starting j16 has improved quite a lot actually... But just to kick myself in the ass... I must say I have not improved enough or fast enough... my progress is simply not acceptable !!!

OK, I lost $ 50 last week... you know... that is not so much... it is not the money... If I lose any more I will simply take it out of my pocket and put it in my account... I don't let my account go below a certain balance without me putting it back in from my own pocket... otherwise, over time, if I lose more... it will be harder to add back in say $ 1000... BUT it is the principle of the matter... still not getting much better !! Yes, better... but not enough better...

Yes, I am more distrusting... and while that may sound negative to you or others... yes, I know, many say I am a pessamist... but for me, I think I am a realist... I distrust more now.... means I will have to figure out which ones are the good PBs etc... and I will do so.... I WILL do so...
  • #6,271
  • Sep 22, 2007 2:56pm Sep 22, 2007 2:56pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Well I don't like them either, but the USDCAD's gotta rise sometime.
.
Are you sure ??? I talk like that all the time !! I have a hard time trying to kick the habit of talking like that... My wife always says things like that and I have to force my answer to her to be... "NO... price will go wherever it wants to" My worst worst worst trades have been where I keep saying 'it has to'... and then it never does...

Right now I am thinking of 1.0000 on usd/cad as a horizontal trend line... or at least that 1.0000 may act like a trend line... a few more pips down and a close below it might make 1.0000 act as resistance soon... and my charts says we closed what... 6 pips above 1.0000 ??? And just a couple of days ago we are all thinking how hard it really should be to get to 1.0000

And there is oil... climbing away... and that great CAD ecomomy... why shouldn't price go below 1.0000 ??? Have you closed out that SHORT ???

Sorry I cannot analyse it more like you can... you know far more than I do..

But does all this mean I cannot find a way to be profitable ? Even if I just don't know stuff as deep as you or others do ?? I refuse to believe that... it must be far easier to figure out if there is a good PB or not !!!
  • #6,272
  • Sep 22, 2007 3:04pm Sep 22, 2007 3:04pm
I will continue to post in excess... it is the only way to get comments and posts from others... it is where I can push to get information... I still continue to wonder why is there not a public forex school somewhere...???

I feel a very strong void... I have missed something somewhere... I don't know what... I don't know where it is ??? I can't figure out what to do about it...

And last time I felt like this, I ended up signing up with Rob Booker... wasn't a bad deal... wasn't a great deal...

God... I must have just way too much time on my hands these last couple of days !
  • #6,273
  • Sep 22, 2007 3:14pm Sep 22, 2007 3:14pm
Ok tiki,
what about, just carrying on, doing your analysis, deciding which pbs you think will go well after deciding that yes they fit your parameters for a good pin bar...I have to say, the last one at least that you took, you didnt wait for(your) real entry, ie close and 10 pips above or below or whatever...that should help a great deal, just sit on your hands or whatever, put your order in and go away, do whatever you have to do. For gods sake a week or two ago you made 600 pips! You are definitely making progress dont let one trade have any lasting effect on YOU, its just a damn trade that you will never remember in the end...you are doing just fine, stick to your plan and you will be fine, remember your own rules and follow them, come on tiki we are rooting for you GO TIKI GO GO TIKI GO take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #6,274
  • Sep 22, 2007 3:19pm Sep 22, 2007 3:19pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
And just a couple of days ago we are all thinking how hard it really should be to get to 1.0000
Not me

I also mentioned oil at 80-100$ back in July and EURGBP having a shot at rising above 0.7

But that's just because I love making claims that seem far fetched at first and then have a chance to live up to the dreams...I've said it before - dare to dream...you can't win if you don't risk....(it also means you look like an a...a lot of times for making outrageous claims that end up faltering completely hehehehe...rather try than not though)


Quote
And there is oil... climbing away... and that great CAD ecomomy... why shouldn't price go below 1.0000 ??? Have you closed out that SHORT ???
Yepp. Wanted to keep the last 10% of the "pizza position" for below 1.0, then we did go there and I ended up closing the lowest one at 1.007. Does that count as parity?
Well, it will have to do, lol...got what I wanted out of the trade - seeing that it's possible and satisfying that craving I am now trying to lose to "be right". Like a new guy in the PF has a signature - it's like "I'd rather be profitable (than right)"

Quote
Sorry I cannot analyse it more like you can... you know far more than I do..
I'm just very good at appearing like that and again - I dare to dream hehehe ;p

Quote
But does all this mean I cannot find a way to be profitable ? Even if I just don't know stuff as deep as you or others do ?? I refuse to believe that... it must be far easier to figure out if there is a good PB or not !!!
I'm sure Mike's videos (they are PF Material before people start swamping him with PMs about "where can I find those videos") will help enlighten all a bit more as well as his superb thread on it all(which is also in the PF)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #6,275
  • Edited 5:11pm Sep 22, 2007 3:39pm | Edited 5:11pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
But does all this mean I cannot find a way to be profitable ? Even if I just don't know stuff as deep as you or others do ?? I refuse to believe that... it must be far easier to figure out if there is a good PB or not !!!
Tiki let me offer my 2 cents. A couple of weeks ago, around the sub-prime business I completely blew an account I'd grown by about 600% since the beginning of the year. And a few here know I was about to call it a day, I felt so bad about it. No I'm not asking for sympathy, but pointing out that no matter how bad you feel about your trading at the moment, there are worse things than losing $50 one week.

Here's how I built that account. Played every bounce of the large EMAs, no Pins, TBH, TBL, no selectivity etc, etc. Worst of all, as I found out when the crunch came, no stoplosses. I added in as often as seemed sensible, and often when it wasn't. I traded any and every pair, irrespective of correlation.

How I built my confidence to do what I did was to start out (when I'd made my mind up to trade this method that I thought had potential) trading only single lots. Over time, as I became a little more selective, and the account had started to grow, I upped my trades to two lots. And so on... BUT, I also become accustomed to sitting and watching trades go backwards quite a bit before the trend I was trading gained the upper hand and pulled me back into profit.

So I'm going to suggest you take a step back, reduce your trade size and develop the art of patience with a trade. As SL says, if you keep closing trades out too early, it'll be hard to build your account when the good ones do come along.

Forget about your normal 1% - 2% or whatever trade size you use now, do single lots for a while and pick obvious target areas for taking profit, I use Fib Expansions, or Support/Resistance areas, and ride it out. Only close if you're really sure it isn't going any further. It takes a step-change in your thinking, but if you think a trade is right, stay with it until your TP, or your stop is hit. End of story. As an example look in my journal at my EURCAD trade at the end of last week. Everyone was calling for the Daily Pin to be traded long. Me I was short, and stayed short until I had to pull the plug when I had to go out. I'm not bragging here, all I'm saying is that there were reasons for that trade long, and reasons for the trade short. This time I was right, maybe next time I'll be wrong.

But by trading single lots for a while, you'll build that necessary confidence in your calls, and then, as your ability to spot potential winners improves, starting increasing your trade size.

Just remember to stick a stop in SOMEWHERE!!!!
  • #6,276
  • Sep 22, 2007 3:48pm Sep 22, 2007 3:48pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Are you sure ??? My wife always says things like that and I have to force my answer to her to be...
Hey that's a coincidence, that's what my wife keeps saying to me too
  • #6,277
  • Sep 22, 2007 4:25pm Sep 22, 2007 4:25pm
Especially the first couple of paragraphs

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=183
  • #6,278
  • Sep 22, 2007 4:47pm Sep 22, 2007 4:47pm
Quoting PeterFM
By trading single lots for a while, you'll build that necessary confidence in your calls, and then, as your ability to spot potential winners improves, starting increasing your trade size.

Just remember to stick a stop in SOMEWHERE!!!!
Never forget them stops indeed.

Also bear in mind that when Peter says 'single lots' he's paraphrasing the use of "small small small small' positions, not saying use 1 USD per pip

It helped me a LOT to use 0.1% risk instead of 1% to "learn" how to trade again after a rather ugly, terrible and bloody period that had me psychologically devastated. You can still lose money with it nooooo problem, but 0.1% tends to be slow enough to let you live through it for a while.
If it still bleeds you too fast too soon, use 0.05% risk and so forth..

And even with the advice aspect aside, 0.1% risk is quite alright to trade with if you're getting 1:3 risk/reward....two or three 0.1% entries total and you can get your 1% in for the day/two days pretty swiftly.

And tadah, 5 days later the 0.1-0.3% risk made 1-3% return..which in turn would be pretty darn good considering most hedge funds are currently net negative for the year...

I'm saying this because I've actually had trades with 0.2% risk come back to me with around 0.5% made...this might appear tiny tiny, futile, pointless and useless, but I've just gone over the last 3 months of my PL history(where I've done a lot of tiny-tot trades) and I must say nope, it's actually amazing what can come of it if you keep at it.

Just checked the compound calculator...0.5% every day for 60 days = 34% return.
(calculator returns, NOT MINE!)

Anyone know any hedge funds that did 34% the last 90 days?
Anyone?
No, really, I'd be interested to find out more about them =)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #6,279
  • Sep 22, 2007 6:25pm Sep 22, 2007 6:25pm
I agree... by tomorrow at market open I will have quit sulking...

I have looked at usd/cad and eur/cad charts... the truth is, on weekly, they both start down around March f this year... they conincide nicely, right down to the daily PB from Friday...

So... I will play the PBs by the rules... I will trade only a small amount... I will also be looking for the PBs if they are negated... to put a short order on the other side... something I could have done the other day and made some pips... and this is something I should maybe consider doing on all PB trades...

I went and bought a 'RBD' cd... makes me feel better to spend $10

Rob Booker indicators on daily eur/cad say there is some more room to come down... and same for usd/cad... maybe we have retraced and will retrace some more... but ultimately, there is room to go down below Firdays lows...




Quoting razldazl
Ok tiki,
what about, just carrying on, doing your analysis, deciding which pbs you think will go well after deciding that yes they fit your parameters for a good pin bar...I have to say, the last one at least that you took, you didnt wait for(your) real entry, ie close and 10 pips above or below or whatever...that should help a great deal, just sit on your hands or whatever, put your order in and go away, do whatever you have to do. For gods sake a week or two ago you made 600 pips! You are definitely making progress dont let one trade have any lasting effect on YOU, its just a damn trade that you will never remember in the end...you are doing just fine, stick to your plan and you will be fine, remember your own rules and follow them, come on tiki we are rooting for you GO TIKI GO GO TIKI GO take care, Raz
  • #6,280
  • Sep 22, 2007 6:31pm Sep 22, 2007 6:31pm
OK... and thanks for all the replies... from everyone

Lets get down to business... nope, no such thing in my book as doing things without a stop... been there done that...

I will trade 500 units which is my standard... and will allow my account to live for a long time and through a lot of losses....

Goal to year end... make my account $ 2200... I am currently short $ 253

So someone please drum up some nice big PBs in the next few weeks...
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