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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #6,981
  • Sep 20, 2007 2:47am Sep 20, 2007 2:47am
Quoting alexfot
Hi, Robertus! Nice analysis you've done here, and it would be high probability trade, but 200 is on the way and according to th rules we should wait until it's broken. But a lot of other odds in favor of upmove, so maybe it can be taken now.
Hey Alex,

Thanks for the encouragement. I did not take it because the probability wasn't "high enough" for me. I rather make my analysis, take a 90% chance and loose, than jump on board to a ship I can't figure out its heading and hoping for the best.
Totaly agree with the 200 that could have been the second TP (after the 21) - strong resistance and confluence with the 365.

Well all this is history as the ./U pairs have shown their hands to the upside. Waiting for the retracement and a TC. At least now there is enough steam in this pair to lift up to Heavens.

Robert
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  • #6,982
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:17am Sep 20, 2007 3:17am
Hello,
My 4hr candle closed in 4hr EUR/US with showing MACD TC confirmation.Any comments on that,please.
Regards
Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 22 KB
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #6,983
  • Sep 20, 2007 4:15am Sep 20, 2007 4:15am
Quoting mike1349
Sorry James,
I got you wrong.here is the indicator for MT4
Mike
Thanks a lot!
  • #6,984
  • Sep 20, 2007 4:40am Sep 20, 2007 4:40am
Quoting mike1349
Hello,
My 4hr candle closed in 4hr EUR/US with showing MACD TC confirmation.Any comments on that,please.
Regards
Mike
Hi Mike,

I would suggest to wait till the closing of the candle before making any decision coz hourly candle may form the body engulfing pattern. Be patient.
  • #6,985
  • Sep 20, 2007 4:40am Sep 20, 2007 4:40am
Quoting mike1349
Hello,
My 4hr candle closed in 4hr EUR/US with showing MACD TC confirmation.Any comments on that,please.
Regards
Mike
Absolutely, but the price is to far from the 8 ema to jump in. to late to get in by now...
  • #6,986
  • Sep 20, 2007 5:05am Sep 20, 2007 5:05am
Hi Benniardi:

Sorry for the reply that may have sounded a bit rude. Just wanted to say I was trading Cable from simple support and resistance bounces and rejects...because it is acting strangely. It is really important to know how and why you are approaching a trade, b/c a short could have been a possiblity depending on what your plan was -- Just be careful w/Cable right now -- it should have broken out too (like E/U) -- but it hasn't been able to hold the higher prices and the UK has some fundamental data that is being questioned by the market. Guess I'm saying -- profile the trading environment and trade accordingly.

Quoting pips4uandme
Nope, I've been long for the last 50 pips b/c of beautiful bounces off support zones yesterday and today. Also, my chart has a really nice RB (but the level is not good). Don't have any reason to short at the present time...no PA signs yet or MACD confirmation...What are your reasons for thinking short now?? Are you counting on bad UK retail sales? Or is there a signal on your chart w/support break? Or just anticipating market motion (which is a good reason)?

The follow through on the rate move, sure wasn't there. Seems to be a lot of downward pressure...hmmm

Good luck w/your trade!! May the pips be with you!!
Pips
  • #6,987
  • Sep 20, 2007 5:09am Sep 20, 2007 5:09am
Hi Mike,

Gustavo and dondon gave you good advice. Don't chase the breakout. Wait for a pull back or a consolidation pattern to form. You'd hate to get stuck at a high (even though there was some incredible news tonight that bodes extremely well for E/U strength going forward...possibly.. ). If anyone is interested, it looks like oil may really be in the process of depegging to the dollar...which doesn't bode well for the greenback!

Hope your trades are all in the money!

Pips
  • #6,988
  • Sep 20, 2007 5:27am Sep 20, 2007 5:27am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Mike,

Gustavo and dondon gave you good advice. Don't chase the breakout. Wait for a pull back or a consolidation pattern to form. You'd hate to get stuck at a high (even though there was some incredible news tonight that bodes extremely well for E/U strength going forward...possibly.. ). If anyone is interested, it looks like oil may really be in the process of depegging to the dollar...which doesn't bode well for the greenback!

Hope your trades are all in the money!

Pips
Dear Pip ,
Thanks for the comment.I am confused here.if you look at the attached chart we had MACD green on last break out (point 1).then we waitted for retracemend and we missed the MACD confirmation till now.In point 2 we have another break out and MACD confirmation but again we should wait for retracement and may be we miss MACD confirmation again.(I mean MACD turns to red)
So now my question is here,what is the best time to enter in this situation or when the market is moving fast.
I had the 1HR confirmation before candle NO 2 closing.Am I suppose to enter at that time?

Thank you
Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 17 KB
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #6,989
  • Sep 20, 2007 5:54am Sep 20, 2007 5:54am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Benniardi:

Sorry for the reply that may have sounded a bit rude. Just wanted to say I was trading Cable from simple support and resistance bounces and rejects...because it is acting strangely. It is really important to know how and why you are approaching a trade, b/c a short could have been a possiblity depending on what your plan was -- Just be careful w/Cable right now -- it should have broken out too (like E/U) -- but it hasn't been able to hold the higher prices and the UK has some fundamental data that is being questioned by the market. Guess I'm saying -- profile the trading environment and trade accordingly.
Hi pips
I agree that cable has a huge donwards pressure, its a high volatility enviroment, and i have problems to get entry signals, and when i get them R:R its bad.
And also in my case that i ve trading for 8 months, its the first time that i see the Euro breaking out while cable consolidating.
Another thing: where do you get option barriers data as you mentioned before. I saw something at dailyfx+, is that what you use??

Can you show us your approach and charts in terms of market rythm, tl and s-r;; That would be so helpful...
sorry i didnt mean to bother you, but im tryng hard to get into this method.

thanks more than a lot...
  • #6,990
  • Sep 20, 2007 6:29am Sep 20, 2007 6:29am
Will there be a chance for EUR 4hr forming a double top? Just brain-storming as the last 4 hr candle got a tail (not too long). However, we already got 2 litte ones in hourly.Any way, better to wait till next candle to confirm the signal.
  • #6,991
  • Sep 20, 2007 7:10am Sep 20, 2007 7:10am
dondon: I was thinking the same thing. E$ in new territory so I'm keeping an eye on this one.

There was a 2nd Rt in the $Yen last night that turned out to be a lot more profitable. I got out about 30 pips too soon though. Sometimes my second guessing takes control and it proves to be wrong most of the time. Anyway, I haven't contributed much at all this week to the thread. Seems like all the trades have been late for me and typing anything here or on the blog at 3am CST USA can be a little tiresome. Kinda been 'out of sorts' all week even though it's been a profitable one.

Here's something to chew on the daily $Yen:

This may be a failed break of the downtrendline and the MACD is forming a Rt. If so, this could turn out to be a large move to the downside. To minimize the risk on the daily, trade in smaller lot sizes or try to get in on a sell limit order to minimize the sl needed.

I'll be a little more active next week.....just taking a break I guess.
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  • #6,992
  • Sep 20, 2007 7:13am Sep 20, 2007 7:13am
Here was the '2nd' Rt on the 4hr...
Attached Image
  • #6,993
  • Sep 20, 2007 8:43am Sep 20, 2007 8:43am
Quoting dondon
Will there be a chance for EUR 4hr forming a double top? Just brain-storming as the last 4 hr candle got a tail (not too long). However, we already got 2 litte ones in hourly.Any way, better to wait till next candle to confirm the signal.
And it just bounced back from the trendline Philip has drawn on the monthly chart. Which also favours a move to the downside.

As Palmer said: should keep an eye on this one.

Robert
Enter Signature
  • #6,994
  • Sep 20, 2007 9:51am Sep 20, 2007 9:51am
Okay went short the Euro on the 1st red macd, took +20 and did a stop at cost and stopped out on the rest at cost. Did anyone else get in this trade or did all you guys go long?
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #6,995
  • Sep 20, 2007 10:32am Sep 20, 2007 10:32am
Info
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 19Sept2007.zip   725 KB | 1,190 downloads
File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 20Sept2007.zip   710 KB | 1,057 downloads
  • #6,996
  • Sep 20, 2007 10:43am Sep 20, 2007 10:43am
Look at the weekly and monthly charts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 Hour Strategy.JPG Size: 113 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly EurUsd.JPG Size: 125 KB
  • #6,997
  • Sep 20, 2007 10:59am Sep 20, 2007 10:59am
WOW did I get out too early.
WOW did I get out too early.
WOW did I get out too early.

:surprised
  • #6,998
  • Sep 20, 2007 12:40pm Sep 20, 2007 12:40pm
You sure did. It looks like the majority wanted the u/j to hit 114.00.
Everyone took profits and now it's on its way back up.
Someone humble lies about being lucky, someone arrogant simply lies.
  • #6,999
  • Sep 20, 2007 1:57pm Sep 20, 2007 1:57pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Benniardi:

Sorry for the reply that may have sounded a bit rude. Just wanted to say I was trading Cable from simple support and resistance bounces and rejects...because it is acting strangely. It is really important to know how and why you are approaching a trade, b/c a short could have been a possiblity depending on what your plan was -- Just be careful w/Cable right now -- it should have broken out too (like E/U) -- but it hasn't been able to hold the higher prices and the UK has some fundamental data that is being questioned by the market. Guess I'm saying -- profile the trading environment and trade accordingly.
hah, I put a wrong quote.. what I mean is EUR/CAD.. sorry (howcome it's cable..)
Anyway, cable just break through 8 & 21, and now testing 89 and then go back down? It's also in the middle of 200 and 365 sma (if that means anything?)

yeah EUR/CAD, because it was trading in the tunnel nicely for the last couple of months (daily tf)... and it's breaking out the channel now. Got stopped there... I was long on that bottom support line, and it went up for 60-80 pips, then all of sudden this huge candle (in 4h) ruin my stop loss.. haha.. anyone know what happening?

Thanks... I need to study more about market rhythm and market motion...
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  • #7,000
  • Sep 20, 2007 2:07pm Sep 20, 2007 2:07pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Nope, I've been long for the last 50 pips b/c of beautiful bounces off support zones yesterday and today. Also, my chart has a really nice RB (but the level is not good). Don't have any reason to short at the present time...no PA signs yet or MACD confirmation...What are your reasons for thinking short now?? Are you counting on bad UK retail sales? Or is there a signal on your chart w/support break? Or just anticipating market motion (which is a good reason)?

The follow through on the rate move, sure wasn't there. Seems to be a lot of downward pressure...hmmm

Good luck w/your trade!! May the pips be with you!!
Pips

Hm.. where did you enter? coz the chart showing like U-turn....
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