(sorry for bad translation)
WASHINGTON (French Press Agency) - The world economy is to a turn, and even if it is not the most probable script, an American recession related to the real estate can not be excluded, has warned Wednesday the World Bank. "The world economy is to a turn" and "the ingredients are in place for a soft landing", that remains the most probable script, has valued Hans Timmer, responsible for the follow-up of the world tendencies, during the publication Wednesday of the semi-annual report of situation of the Bank. However these hinge periods are always full of uncertainties and "it remains some risks", he has underlined. The World Bank counts on one world economic growth of next 3,2% the year in the world, after 3,9% this year. The developping countries should make a lot rich better (+6,4%) than the countries should (+2,4%) in 2007, after a similar dichotomy in 2006 (+7% against +3,1%). The judge institution that of numerous factors lead "to a more marked slowing down", notably related to the real estate market. He draws up a parallel with the beginning of the 20th century, which had experienced a strong growth. "But instead of continuing as the main economists foresaw it at that time, the world has dived into the Great depression", he notices. The Bank quotes four great risks: - a property crisis might cause a recession in the United States. The market has looked back this year and there is a risk that the slowing down is much more significant, underlines the Bank, according to which "such a shock would cause a recession in the United States". That would drive to a slowing down growth in other parts of the world, "but not inevitably to a recession, notably in the developping countries," has estimated Mr. Timmer. - a period of overheating of the world economy might lead afterwards to a more marked slowing down. Furthermore, inflationary pressures might continue appear and one can not exclude that the prices of the raw materials still increase. - an oil shock might disrupt the growth. - the world imbalances might have problems to be absorbed in softness. For the World Bank, the risk in the medium term is that the adjustments make to themselves by the financial device, if for example "the investors lose rapidly trust in the dollar, causing a crisis of the exchanges, of the much higher interest rates and a panic of the capital markets|stock market". The report, titled "To manage the next wave of the globalisation", devotes a broad part to the challenges and to the opportunities of the globalisation of the markets. "The number of people having less than 1 dollar per day to live might be cut in half, of 1,1 thousand million currently at 550 million in 2030", has valued François Bourguignon, Chief economist of the IBRD. But "some regions, notably the Africa, run the risk of staying in tow and the inequalities of incomes might increase in many countries", he has added. The globalisation will "probably intensify" the pressures on the world patrimony. "The countries are going to have to make an effort devised to reinforce their role in the engaging areas the world public properties, that it is a matter of reducing the planetary reheating, of confining the Infectious diseases as the bird flu, or still of preventing the destruction of the world resources", notices the Bank. The IBRD esteem that the planetary reheating constitutes a "serious risk", with a rise of the annual programmes of greenhouse gas of around 50% of here to 2030. To avoid that, the political persons responsibles will have to promote a growth "specificity", he asserts.
WASHINGTON (French Press Agency) - The world economy is to a turn, and even if it is not the most probable script, an American recession related to the real estate can not be excluded, has warned Wednesday the World Bank. "The world economy is to a turn" and "the ingredients are in place for a soft landing", that remains the most probable script, has valued Hans Timmer, responsible for the follow-up of the world tendencies, during the publication Wednesday of the semi-annual report of situation of the Bank. However these hinge periods are always full of uncertainties and "it remains some risks", he has underlined. The World Bank counts on one world economic growth of next 3,2% the year in the world, after 3,9% this year. The developping countries should make a lot rich better (+6,4%) than the countries should (+2,4%) in 2007, after a similar dichotomy in 2006 (+7% against +3,1%). The judge institution that of numerous factors lead "to a more marked slowing down", notably related to the real estate market. He draws up a parallel with the beginning of the 20th century, which had experienced a strong growth. "But instead of continuing as the main economists foresaw it at that time, the world has dived into the Great depression", he notices. The Bank quotes four great risks: - a property crisis might cause a recession in the United States. The market has looked back this year and there is a risk that the slowing down is much more significant, underlines the Bank, according to which "such a shock would cause a recession in the United States". That would drive to a slowing down growth in other parts of the world, "but not inevitably to a recession, notably in the developping countries," has estimated Mr. Timmer. - a period of overheating of the world economy might lead afterwards to a more marked slowing down. Furthermore, inflationary pressures might continue appear and one can not exclude that the prices of the raw materials still increase. - an oil shock might disrupt the growth. - the world imbalances might have problems to be absorbed in softness. For the World Bank, the risk in the medium term is that the adjustments make to themselves by the financial device, if for example "the investors lose rapidly trust in the dollar, causing a crisis of the exchanges, of the much higher interest rates and a panic of the capital markets|stock market". The report, titled "To manage the next wave of the globalisation", devotes a broad part to the challenges and to the opportunities of the globalisation of the markets. "The number of people having less than 1 dollar per day to live might be cut in half, of 1,1 thousand million currently at 550 million in 2030", has valued François Bourguignon, Chief economist of the IBRD. But "some regions, notably the Africa, run the risk of staying in tow and the inequalities of incomes might increase in many countries", he has added. The globalisation will "probably intensify" the pressures on the world patrimony. "The countries are going to have to make an effort devised to reinforce their role in the engaging areas the world public properties, that it is a matter of reducing the planetary reheating, of confining the Infectious diseases as the bird flu, or still of preventing the destruction of the world resources", notices the Bank. The IBRD esteem that the planetary reheating constitutes a "serious risk", with a rise of the annual programmes of greenhouse gas of around 50% of here to 2030. To avoid that, the political persons responsibles will have to promote a growth "specificity", he asserts.
