- #6,182
- Sep 20, 2007 8:29am Sep 20, 2007 8:29am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2005 | 2,899 Posts
Did not get a break to the upside of the daily hammer. All pending orders cancelled.. Will wait for next opportunity to present itself. CASH is a position, too!!
. I managed to escape with a small loss right after fiber broke 1.4000. Conservative way is the way to go...sometimes 
- #6,183
- Sep 20, 2007 8:29am Sep 20, 2007 8:29am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2007 | 1,442 Posts
Alas... seeking light has gotten his parity on usd/cad....
Is this all just luck...?? Or I guess those complicated charts really dooo work... !!!
People have said before, forget about the news and concentrate on the PA and that is all good to an extent but look at what is happening here:
You've already got broad dollar weakness which gets exacerbated this morning by news that the Saudis have refused to cut interest rates. This in turn prompted speculation that Saudia-Arabia is preparing to break its dollar-peg. This country has $3.5 trillion in dollar denominated reserves in the region! This kind of news is about as dollar negative as you can get and it was broadly available this morning. I don't think you can simply ignore the news. Don't trade as a result of it - sure! But not knowing what the market is concentrating on is dangerous, imo.
At any rate, combine this news with the fact that other currencies are breaking to all-time highs against the dollar.
Then consider the "magnetic pull" of parity or the big 1.0000. When the market gets near enough to hit a number like this, it's a safe bet that it will, or have a very good go!
Last but not least, the pin, which was right at the bottom of an incredibly long and pronounced downwards trend, didn't even trigger.
I hope I don't sound like a "know it all" or indeed that I am unsympathetic with your loss. I myself was thinking about going long that pin last night but for the above reasons I decided against it.
Don't let the loss get you down - I say this to Mimas too! There are plenty of other trades. Take a break, collect your thoughts and get ready for the next one.
- #6,186
- Sep 20, 2007 8:46am Sep 20, 2007 8:46am
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trade the MAX System with me... | 1,995 Posts
Hi BeachBum,
When you say "Failed PB" on EUR_CAD we had a break above the pin bar....can I just ask what makes it a failed pin bar, I know it broke the high then went down again but at the time no way of knowing any info apprecited.....may keep me out of these bad trades in the future !!!
- #6,187
- Sep 20, 2007 9:04am Sep 20, 2007 9:04am
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
Did anyone else take break of daily 2 bar high & 1.4 on the euro.
Nice little profit so far so have moved the stop to break even for rest of position.
Also the break of the daily buob on the ausie
Correction channel, pinned at the low, moved above, hop+retest(journal readers will know that by now hehe), DBLHC(also on top of the 2bar PB => retrace bus), takeoff.
Limit was 1.4 for 2/3 however, since I went to bed around 30 minutes later and didn't want to see things go into the crapper.
The remaining 1/3 is still around.
Not a trade I'd advise taking. Risk was 0.1%, took it mostly to see what would happen and for practice
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #6,188
- Sep 20, 2007 10:47am Sep 20, 2007 10:47am
Alas... seeking light has gotten his parity on usd/cad....
Is this all just luck...?? Or I guess those complicated charts really dooo work... !!!
Bad day for me... I am out $ 40 today... 2% of my account... got to go and regroup... drink something ...
It's only one loss anyway.
I have 2 categories I put my losses under:
1. Good trades that simply failed
2. Trades that weren't so good (ie a little more risky / not A trades) but taught me something.
For losses under category 1, I don't feel bad about them because it was out of my control. Good signal, but the market didn't follow through. It happens. And the way I decide whether a loss falls in this category, is if I see the exact same setup tomorrow would I take it again? If the answer is Yes then ok. If it's No then why.
I also don't feel bad for losses that fall under category 2. If you learn something that will help you in the future be a better trader, then it's not really a failure.
In this case, you can take away 2 lessons. One option would be to not trade against such a strong trend and the other option is if you do choose to trade against such a trend, to be more conservative and enter on the break of a Pin for example, or reduce your usual risk% for that trade.
Those are just my thoughts and how they've helped me deal with losing trades.
If you have confidence in your system and are consistent you'll be fine.
All the best,
Tom
- #6,189
- Sep 20, 2007 12:34pm Sep 20, 2007 12:34pm
- | Joined May 2006 | Status: Trade Towards the 5 ema | 2,881 Posts
Yes, you are right, I should have waited to take the trade. However, for some reason it looked so nice, and I had prayed to forex god about it, and he promised etc....
I did wait for break of PB on eur/cad... but still went against me.. but then someone else here this morning mentioned about PPZ just above the eur/cad PB and this is what will get me because I am not good with PPZs at this point... of coarse there is also that the PB was not such a good PB if one at all... but I really felt we were at bottom of a swing and good chance to go up... which is the principle reason I traded there...
usd/cad at 1.000000000000000000 well, I guess we all should have known that huh ???
I am going to study PPZs this afternoon and start to make more headway there...
I did wait for break of PB on eur/cad... but still went against me.. but then someone else here this morning mentioned about PPZ just above the eur/cad PB and this is what will get me because I am not good with PPZs at this point... of coarse there is also that the PB was not such a good PB if one at all... but I really felt we were at bottom of a swing and good chance to go up... which is the principle reason I traded there...
usd/cad at 1.000000000000000000 well, I guess we all should have known that huh ???
I am going to study PPZs this afternoon and start to make more headway there...
I'm sorry Tiki
Why didn't you put the order at break of the PB? You would have been safe and sound! Especially on this small a PB and this strong a fall it's super dangerous to go against it without at least a SMALL confirmation (even then I didn't have much hope, I wrote the reasons over in the PF)..
EURCAD lost it's range's low, too.
I wonder how long the CB will watch this.
- #6,190
- Sep 20, 2007 12:37pm Sep 20, 2007 12:37pm
- | Joined May 2006 | Status: Trade Towards the 5 ema | 2,881 Posts
- #6,191
- Sep 20, 2007 12:42pm Sep 20, 2007 12:42pm
- | Joined May 2006 | Status: Trade Towards the 5 ema | 2,881 Posts
Ok OK OK I will just tell you the truth... steviet said he already had gone long on the PB... so I did too... so really it is his fault !!! LOL 
I mean... isn't he the forex god ???
Yeah I know about the magnet effect... just thought we were still a few pips away from the magnet kicking in...
From now on I am not going to trade any pairs that have CAD JPY or USD in them... does that leave anything ???
OK going to study PPZs now...
I mean... isn't he the forex god ???Yeah I know about the magnet effect... just thought we were still a few pips away from the magnet kicking in...
From now on I am not going to trade any pairs that have CAD JPY or USD in them... does that leave anything ???
OK going to study PPZs now...
Tiki, it's not luck and I don't think in this case its even down to "complicated charts". Of course, you can always see setups in the charts that would have worked and Seeking has highlighted many but as I posted here earlier, you just wouldn't have wanted to be long the USD/CAD right now.
People have said before, forget about the news and concentrate on the PA and that is all good to an extent but look at what is happening here:
You've already got broad dollar weakness which gets exacerbated this morning by news that the Saudis have refused to cut interest rates. This in turn prompted speculation that Saudia-Arabia is preparing to break its dollar-peg. This country has $3.5 trillion in dollar denominated reserves in the region! This kind of news is about as dollar negative as you can get and it was broadly available this morning. I don't think you can simply ignore the news. Don't trade as a result of it - sure! But not knowing what the market is concentrating on is dangerous, imo.
At any rate, combine this news with the fact that other currencies are breaking to all-time highs against the dollar.
Then consider the "magnetic pull" of parity or the big 1.0000. When the market gets near enough to hit a number like this, it's a safe bet that it will, or have a very good go!
Last but not least, the pin, which was right at the bottom of an incredibly long and pronounced downwards trend, didn't even trigger.
I hope I don't sound like a "know it all" or indeed that I am unsympathetic with your loss. I myself was thinking about going long that pin last night but for the above reasons I decided against it.
Don't let the loss get you down - I say this to Mimas too! There are plenty of other trades. Take a break, collect your thoughts and get ready for the next one.
- #6,193
- Sep 20, 2007 12:51pm Sep 20, 2007 12:51pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
For me it is still slmost always reason # 2... it wasn't a good trade in the first place... of coarse I learn from it... but it is discouraging after so much time to still so often make bad trades that weren't good from the start, and that I miss so many good ones that are sitting there in front of my eyes...
I was 179 pips in the hole today too on the EURCAD & USDCAD - I rarely wait for the PB to break. On this occasion it didn't work out so onto the next set-up
Not waiting for the break does kick you in the teeth sometimes but on other occasions, you're in the trade earlier, therefore picking up more pips. Also, if I'd waited for the PB to break on EURCAD today I'd have lost an extra 40 or 50 pips by entering somewhere in the 1.4220's instead of 1.4182 last night.
As I work during London and the first half of NY sessions, I wasn't around to lock in some pips when the trade was actually 40 pips to the good.
Ho-hum, no-one has a 100% success rate on these set-ups - sometimes an announcement somewhere in the world will kick you out of an otherwise good trade - that's life I'm afraid. Let's not forget it sometimes happens the other way round, just doesn't seem that way lol.
Kind Regards
Steve
- #6,194
- Sep 20, 2007 12:54pm Sep 20, 2007 12:54pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
Ok OK OK I will just tell you the truth... steviet said he already had gone long on the PB... so I did too... so really it is his fault !!! LOL
Yeah I know about the magnet effect... just thought we were still a few pips away from the magnet kicking in...
From now on I am not going to trade any pairs that have CAD JPY or USD in them... does that leave anything ???
OK going to study PPZs now...
Forex God - yeah right!!!
See post above Tiki - I'm not as conservative as most of these guys...
- #6,195
- Sep 20, 2007 1:16pm Sep 20, 2007 1:16pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
- #6,200
- Sep 20, 2007 1:46pm Sep 20, 2007 1:46pm
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Zoom out | 1,425 Posts
Ok OK OK I will just tell you the truth... steviet said he already had gone long on the PB... so I did too... so really it is his fault !!! LOL
Yeah I know about the magnet effect... just thought we were still a few pips away from the magnet kicking in...
From now on I am not going to trade any pairs that have CAD JPY or USD in them... does that leave anything ???
OK going to study PPZs now...
Never say never.