james16 Chart Thread

Good advice......my last lot in this trade has a trailing stop.

Well, or in essence cutting your profit short. Or maximizing it.



Right. Well let's address this all a bit without really doing so and without solving anything.

This is all stuff everyone will come across sooner or later and in the end the dilemma is always the same.

Nobody wants to leave profit behind, one or the other way.

The trouble is - you can't predict things most of the time.

If you were able to figure out which really are the turning points, then that's what we're looking for. 1.3440 EURUSD was that for example. I was originally eyeing up 80 pips higher I think it was and when that was exceeded I dropped all plans to go long, but I was looking at that area as key reversal and "mid term" long entry, i.e. a buy and hold for at least 1.39.
Completely blew that one due to the "exaggerated" end

Anyhow.

What I'm trying to say is - trouble is being unable to perfectly distinguish stalling from reversing and finding out the difference between interim bounces and real key turn points.
If one knew about each ahead of time we'd all be rich.

There are means of finding more likelyhood for it all etc, but the question boils back down to: do you want to give each trade the chance to become a multi day winner or are you looking for a quick but safe profit?

The answer is most likely in how "well" you trade. If you can find perfect mini-trades all the time and "scalp" 1-2 days out of the market always, then there won't be a problem since you have a high win rate and your r/r is at least / greater than 1:1.

If you prefer to shoot for the big runs then you might have 5 tries that go sour and end up for a small loss or 0, but you eventually find the turning point you wanted and are in for the next 300-1200 pips..

I think the main trouble is trying to do all at once.

Wizard's approach very much resembles mine and is an attempt at a compromise, but how many times have I seen PBs at crucial s/r junctions that get to go a handful of pips and then get smashed down after the pullback being seen as a rally to sell into...well, it all depends on scale, timeframe and what's going on..not all pins are turning points for the whole market / long term direction and neither are all other setups...and again we're back to how to discriminate...

I guess one needs to find what works best for one.


Nice example is cable...raczekfx is already looking for doomsday prices and he may well be right to do so...

We could pretend we had a 2 bar weekly PB.
Why didn't I see that earlier?

See, we could now say hey, this is THE entry for the rest of the year, not move the stop for the next 2 weeks and see what monthly becomes.
Or we could go oh no, trendlines, must close out before they are hit...

We might end up bouncing a bit. Then the ones that closed out cheer "hah we were right, see that bounce!".
Then 5 days later they get crushed and the ones with the higher entries have those still AND some addon entries and end up with several hundreds as 1.8xxx trades again...or stopped for a loss as the cable phoenix returns from the ashes?

But it woulda been worth it..

See the problem?

Since we're talking AUDUSD / EURAUD...highly defended zone down there where the core TL and .618 coincided. We hit that during the great unwind and it held smartly.

The uptrend remained intact.

Now we're at another crucial junction - .618 of the drop.

Raczekfx, you must be watching this like a hawk?

And the daily and zoomed in...wondering what will come of this?

And this the night before the "big news"...

Wonder how many analysts will try to post-justify whatever comes of the things that our charts are saying right now already

Not saying it will go either way, just pointing out where we are and what's in our way either side on my charts at least.

Big..

Zoomed.

Anything can happen here, but the move is coming soon. Considering how the 1.6400 s/r held the squeeze might go upwards for a squirt, then stall, fall and fade to almost the lows, then continue...likes to be mean...at least that's what the last 2-3 did ;p

Okay, enough posting, it's 1 am, time for beddy bed.

No idea who / what will win, just trying to show some big pictures of the "where we are".

Sorry to disappoint, I don't trade these crosses. They wouldn't offer me rewards that cable, gbp/chf and xxx/jpy do...

Not a doomsday, I'm just waiting for everyone to lose hope in cable, then I'll start buying. Probably around 4:30 AM est, but It would be really nice to see 1.9850 first...

Last Thursday's daily PB is now paying off...

Hey there

i was waiting for this to happen - after the TBL on the 4h chart andthe price not making anything but sideways i waited for it to break short - well , it did.


any comments??

this is what you sold into

i see what you are saying...

to be honest i was in this trade to take very fast profit - i guess that was in my subconcious...

thanks

Not saying you are right or wrong

just showing what I see, if you had a trade plan then stick to your guns

Take care bud,
Mike

Unfortunately I think for many traders the real way this goes is: shoot for the big run and get 5 tries that go sour ending up with an increasing loss size (as each attempt leaves you more frustrated and more certain you must eventually be right). Then eventually a trader finds the turning point, vindicated at having caught a huge rally and bails out as soon as it makes back his 5 losses, leaving him essentially breakeven. I've seen and experienced this many a time. After five losses your thinking goes from "I want to see profit" to "I want to make my loss back".


When I trade the daily timeframe I try and compromise but on hourly I rarely do.

IMO, finding this is what makes a trader consistently profitable not the latest system/best way to capture pips.

take very fast profit, for me I need to analyse a chart MORE carefully if I think I might be in and out quickly.

I was looking to trade this, but only if it broke the TBL and then pulled back to the PPZ on my 4hr chart. My target would have been about 50 pips down to the 38 Fib.

Its a mad cow.

Yeah that was a bit of a rush...hope you all made pips there

Pips I ended up making quite a lot, I just wish it'd have been more money, too ;p

COMPLETELY borked the EURUSD entry, missed all of GJ, EJ, AJ...got in late on AUD, NZD...annoying mind-lag on such obvious weekly BUOB + retrace entries

Should have seen it coming...there were such superb pullback entries with nice confluence and I just sat here going "nyer nyer no no no daily BEOB market must obey ME not the PA nyer.."...sorta didn't work out.

So I paid +-0 or a little for the shorts and instead missed making real money on the long..tossed a bit of money out as cable retraced too far at the lows and so forth

Still looking to be in profit after the complete mess, but by far not as well as I coulda been...(there was a LOT of money lying around, ready to be picked up by PA traders today..)

Anyone want an example?

I would like an example.

Forming Asymetrical triangle, consilidating for move.