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  • #27,301
  • Sep 15, 2007 9:40am Sep 15, 2007 9:40am
good stuff
Success has a Thousand Fathers.
  • #27,302
  • Sep 15, 2007 10:15am Sep 15, 2007 10:15am
BBC News Article - Saturday 15th September.

"Rush on Northern Rock continues"

Customers have been withdrawing money despite appeals for calm

The rush of customers taking money out of Northern Rock has continued for a second day, amid concerns over its emergency Bank of England loan.
Long queues built up outside branches such as Kingston, Surrey, where some 250 people waited to take out money.
Experts insist that customers' money is safe, but banking sources suggest that on Friday alone clients pulled out £1bn - or 4-5% of retail deposits.
Northern Rock has struggled since money markets seized up over the summer.
The bank is not short of assets, but they are tied up in loans to home owners. Because of the global credit crunch Northern Rock has found it difficult to borrow the cash to run its day-to-day operations.
Northern Rock's business and capital base themselves have been judged to be sound by the Financial Services Authority.
Emergency loan untouched
Northern Rock has not confirmed how much money has been withdrawn from branch savings accounts.
"If a mortgage lender goes bust, no-one will come round trying to repossess borrowers' homes to get the money back "

On Saturday, queues outside branches such as Sheffield and Golders Green in north London grew so large that police officers were deployed for crowd control.
This comes a day after customers visited Northern Rock bank branches across the country to withdraw savings, fearful the business could collapse.
The bank has also yet to learn about the scale of withdrawals from the £9.9bn held in postal accounts.
Meanwhile, numerous internet customers have contacted the BBC News website complaining they have been unable to access their online accounts since Thursday evening, when news of the bank's problems first emerged.
Pensioner Brian Goodman, 80, queuing with his wife outside Golders Green branch on Saturday, said: "We just want to withdraw our money. If we came back next week the money could be gone."
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
"Northern Rock is a sound and safe bank and there is absolutely no reason for either mortgage customers or savers to worry "

British Bankers' Association

Northern Rock spokesman Brian Giles said branches had stayed open late on Friday to deal with customers - some until 2230 BST - and opening times would be decided on a branch-by-branch basis on Saturday.
Branches including Glasgow and Manchester closed at noon, while Sheffield and Kingston shut at 1400 BST.
"We haven't run out of cash. People's savings are safe. There is no need for panic," Mr Giles said.
Mr Giles added that the website was running slowly owing to a high number of customers, and insisted: "There is no gate blocking anyone from accessing their account."
A frustrated online customer had told the BBC that this was "a shabby way to treat customers, and will take away what little loyalty I have for Northern Rock".
Northern Rock chief executive Adam Applegarth earlier highlighted that it had yet to draw on the Bank of England's emergency loan, which he called "a backstop in case we need to use it".
Mr Applegarth was the architect of the bank's rapid expansion over the past few years, and earned £1.35m in salary and bonuses last year.
Endorsements
A number of officials and experts have tried to reassure the bank's 1.5 million savers that their money is safe.
Chancellor Alistair Darling said the Bank of England had stepped in "to create a stable banking system".
He said: "People can use their accounts in the usual way, they can carry on making their mortgage payments in the usual way. Northern Rock will be able to carry on its business."

It is unclear how much money the Bank of England has offered to lend to Northern Rock.
Any loan has to be backed by the bank's assets, and according to calculations by BBC business editor Robert Peston, Northern Rock can probably draw on about £30bn - which should just about cover all the savings that customers have deposited with the bank - in the "very unlikely case that every single one of its depositors wanted its money back".
He added that endorsements from the Financial Services Authority and the chancellor meant Northern Rock "may well now be one of the safest banks in the world".
"In the unlikely event that a black hole did emerge at Northern Rock, the government would be under enormous moral pressure to pay out 100 pence in the pound to Northern's retail depositors," our business editor said.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifNORTHERN ROCK FACTS
Founded in 1965 after merger of Northern Counties Permanent Building Society and Rock Building Society
Headquarters in Newcastle
Became a public company in 1997
Has 6,400 staff
Has 18.9% share of new UK lending
Loans and assets of £113bn
Deposits from customers of £24bn

The chairman of the Treasury Select Committee, John McFall, said Northern Rock's customers should not panic.

"The banking system in the United Kingdom is strong," he said.
"We've had 60 quarters of continued growth, the world economy has grown for the past five years. So it's against a strong background.
"Don't let's predicate everything of doom and gloom on one small bank at that particular time. And I think it would serve us all well to stand back a little bit on this issue and give it time."
The British Bankers' Association said: "Northern Rock is a sound and safe bank and there is absolutely no reason for either mortgage customers or savers to worry."
Michael Fallon, a Conservative member of the Treasury Select Committee, said questions needed to be asked about the deal.
He said: "We're going to be asking the governor of the Bank of England when he appears before the Treasury Select Committee next week, exactly why taxpayers' funds should be used to bail out a building society that appears to have been borrowing rather differently to lots of other building societies and banks."

Slow-down predicted
Shares in Northern Rock fell by 32% on Friday after it emerged it had approached the Bank of England for help.
The bank warned it could have £150m shaved off its profits due to the money market turmoil.
Unlike most banks, which get their money from customers making deposits into savings accounts, Northern Rock is built around its mortgage business.
It raises most of the money which it provides for mortgages by borrowing from banks and other financial institutions.
Its costs have soared as banks have stopped lending to each other because of fears over potential losses on high-risk US mortgages, creating a credit crunch as liquidity dries up.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/image...k_share203.gif

Experts predicted a slow-down in the UK housing market as result of the financial troubles.
The former head of the Financial Services Authority, Sir Howard Davies, said that mortgages were likely to become more difficult to obtain and costlier.
"I would expect the net of all this to be a depressing effect on the housing market and for house prices at least to stabilise and probably to fall somewhat," he said.
Oxford University's Professor John Muellbauer predicted falls in house prices in London and the South East. "There is going to be a fallout in the City. The UK is very dependent on the City of London - bonuses and jobs will be cut in the coming year and that's bound to affect prices in London, that tends to spill over into the South East."
  • #27,303
  • Sep 15, 2007 11:01am Sep 15, 2007 11:01am
This past week was excellent, hopefully next week will be better and with bigger moves since the Fed is going to have a little party with us lol

Ok, let's get to analyzing..
After learning about the great Moving Averages (50ema, 100sma, 200ema) from our MA master 'Hakuna Matata', I have drawn my weekly fibonacci levels differently this week (weekly chart) and I will explain to you why.

As we know, Moving Averages provide Support/Resistance levels, so now have a look at the chart and see how nicely price reacted (I'm amazed!). Now let's add some Fibo's to our cocktail, the 200ema acted as a support (it barely touched it, but I'll take it as support) on 17/07/05 , now if you draw a Fibonacci retracement from this low to the high of 251.07

http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/1646/gjij9.gif

Now look at that 100sma and 50% level, they were both close to each other and price bounced off that area perfectly. I said last week 212 is next on the cards for GJ but I'll change it to 212-214, since our 61.8% fibo is at 215 and 200ema is just below it, 212-214 should be achieavable in the coming weeks/months.

Remember now, we have lots of supports to break before getting there.. I don't trade based on weekly charts, I just have them in order to have an idea of where price might go next.


Daily chart:

That descending TL from the top has been acting as a support lately, but I believe it will be broken and next support area for GJ based on the daily chart is the 23.6% fibo level.

http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/250/gjna5.gif


4H chart:

The price has been bouncing off the green 61.8%, 50%, and 38.2% fibo levels, once price breaks the 38.2% + TL (close to my 2nd TP), 23.6% is next where we also have a weekly TL waiting for us there.


http://img460.imageshack.us/img460/1905/gjgw5.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #27,304
  • Sep 15, 2007 12:31pm Sep 15, 2007 12:31pm
Quoting Hakuna Matata
while i have a few minutes......

traders have been asking me and posting questions regarding things which have been discussed several times:

please go and see /learn the significance of :

-- MA's 50ema, 100sma , 200sma

-- FIB's-- how to use them

--Monthly Pivots

--Aus system 15min and the main one

please go to the charts...spend like few hrs just chkin past history of just the MA's and FIbs---see their significance and ull soon understand why some of us in here talk about them constantly

chk them on 4hr, 1hr,30, 15min

chk the patterns they form as they get rejected from these MA's

chk what happens when the candle closes above/below them

u have to chk it for yourself

noone is going to hold your hands and show u around---i for one dont have time

im willing to answer any Q after one has studied these MA's especially the 50ema and 100sma.

if u want to make money and follow our conversations in here---u need to know these basics

so dont ask how we use these MA's till u have gone and seen the PRICE ACTION around these MA's----ask yourselves--what do i see hapopening on this Time frame near this MA? what happens when a candle closes above/below them? what happens when there has been a strong move in one direction during a period and does it come back and test any of these MA's?
what happend if we get a LONG candle piercing one of these MA's? what happens when one a candle closes above/below this MA and then reverses and closes back on the other side? what happens when we see a pin bar forming when it touches one of thses MA's?

if u can answer these Q;s after going back in chart history and chkin diff TF's--ull definately learn A LOT.

so go do some homework and then feel free to PM me if any Q's--or ask them here in the forum---but answer my above Q's first !!

bbl
Thank you Hakuna for the answer we needed. I will let you know how it's going. I have printed the info on the candles and will study them this weekend. Nik
  • #27,305
  • Sep 15, 2007 1:59pm Sep 15, 2007 1:59pm
Hi, I'm pretty new to this thread and have the following questions:

Does anybody use Auslanco's system with CMSFX in auto-trade mode? I think he himself already mentioned that he doesn't. But may be others do. If yes, any particular time frame(s)?

I just recently discovered his system and this thread. Thanks for all the input you guys provide.
  • #27,306
  • Sep 15, 2007 2:20pm Sep 15, 2007 2:20pm
Quoting Venturess
Here's an article to echo Markam's words...

Sounds like the world may end sooner than we think!


"The end of oil

A small - but growing - group of experts think world oil production will peak in the next few years, to devastating effect..."

More.... http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/14/news..._oil/index.htm
The Root of all the world's woe's. About time!
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #27,307
  • Sep 15, 2007 2:32pm Sep 15, 2007 2:32pm
Quoting markam
from the article.



And people think I am joking when I say the dow will drop to 2000.





I'm not joking.

I don't think you are. I'm with you all the way brother!
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #27,308
  • Sep 15, 2007 2:44pm Sep 15, 2007 2:44pm
Quoting karmostaji
This past week was excellent, hopefully next week will be better and with bigger moves since the Fed is going to have a little party with us lol

Ok, let's get to analyzing..
After learning about the great Moving Averages (50ema, 100sma, 200ema) from our MA master 'Hakuna Matata', I have drawn my weekly fibonacci levels differently this week (weekly chart) and I will explain to you why.

As we know, Moving Averages provide Support/Resistance levels, so now have a look at the chart and see how nicely price reacted (I'm amazed!). Now let's add some Fibo's to our cocktail, the 200ema acted as a support (it barely touched it, but I'll take it as support) on 17/07/05 , now if you draw a Fibonacci retracement from this low to the high of 251.07



Now look at that 100sma and 50% level, they were both close to each other and price bounced off that area perfectly. I said last week 212 is next on the cards for GJ but I'll change it to 212-214, since our 61.8% fibo is at 215 and 200ema is just below it, 212-214 should be achieavable in the coming weeks/months.

Remember now, we have lots of supports to break before getting there.. I don't trade based on weekly charts, I just have them in order to have an idea of where price might go next.


Daily chart:

That descending TL from the top has been acting as a support lately, but I believe it will be broken and next support area for GJ based on the daily chart is the 23.6% fibo level.




4H chart:

The price has been bouncing off the green 61.8%, 50%, and 38.2% fibo levels, once price breaks the 38.2% + TL (close to my 2nd TP), 23.6% is next where we also have a weekly TL waiting for us there.

Very good work Karmo.
  • #27,309
  • Sep 15, 2007 3:36pm Sep 15, 2007 3:36pm
Quoting markam
And people think I am joking when I say the dow will drop to 2000.

I'm not joking.
I know you're not joking markam, just remember that you have 7 years of support (purple shared area) to break through. Now that will take a lot of panic selling so I wonder what the headlines will print. Anything is possible but I will be convinced when we break through 9000, then 2000 may be a possibility. We will see a good bounce off the 11,900 region.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #27,310
  • Sep 15, 2007 3:58pm Sep 15, 2007 3:58pm
hi everbody here
  • #27,311
  • Sep 15, 2007 4:07pm Sep 15, 2007 4:07pm
Hi!

Quoting shahroodi
hi everbody here
  • #27,312
  • Sep 15, 2007 5:04pm Sep 15, 2007 5:04pm
Wow!!! I am in awe of your skill and success...I can only hope to achieve a fraction of your success after much devoted study on this pair. Thank you for all your posts...I am learning...albeit slowly. One ? please...what does S 231.63 mean? Is that a support level of some Kind? I'm certain it must be somethingvery obvious. Thank you.I r
  • #27,313
  • Sep 15, 2007 5:16pm Sep 15, 2007 5:16pm
Quoting Zoran
I know you're not joking markam, just remember that you have 7 years of support (purple shared area) to break through. Now that will take a lot of panic selling so I wonder what the headlines will print. Anything is possible but I will be convinced when we break through 9000, then 2000 may be a possibility. We will see a good bounce off the 11,900 region.
Now obviously I don't expect 2,000 a week from now. It would require a depression, monetary deflation, 30% unemployment and the collapse of mexico as a functioning country.

I figure it is at least a month away.

My short-term target is the 10,000 area. That will happen quickly as we move further into a recession, and the full extent of the global money crisis becomes apparent. All the current stock market bulls will simultaneously pull their money from the market, and we won't see any more of these silly rallies for a while.

The interesting question is when does GJ decouple from the global stock exchanges? Obviously, beyond a certain level, there is no reason for the yen to continue to strengthen. I think probably in the level 190-210, we would stop seeing GJ going down just because the stock markets are going down.

Also, has anybody heard the rumor that Europe, England and the US are planning coordinated interest rate reductions in order to help the US dollar and economy? I believe that if the US cuts its rate, europe and england are going to have to do the same fairly quickly, just to keep their currencies from getting too strong. Doing it at the same time would send a huge signal to the currency markets to reign in the dollar dumping.
  • #27,314
  • Sep 15, 2007 5:57pm Sep 15, 2007 5:57pm
I use
Stochastic RSI 8,3
Momentum 10 C
RSI 14
ADXR 14
Strength Indicator(very simillar to MACD) as the trend confirmation indicator.

If daily 4hr and 1hr all lined up together I go for a 500 pip profit target.
If only 4hr and 1hr lined up together I go for a 200-300 pip target.

If you want more detailed information I would suggest you to have a look @ other GBP/JPY analysis thread, where i have explained about the indicators on number of posts. Thanks for joining this thread& hope you will enjoy
THERE ARE MAY THREADS AND LOOKING FOR OTHER THREAD FO EXPLANATION IS SO HARD,PLS HELP!!!
  • #27,315
  • Sep 15, 2007 6:33pm Sep 15, 2007 6:33pm
http://money.guardian.co.uk/news_/st...169950,00.html

Fears grow for British economy as panic over Northern Rock spreads



Experts warn that a decade-long borrowing binge has left Britain dangerously exposed to the fallout from the global liquidity crisis

Heather Stewart and Heather Connon
Sunday September 16, 2007
The Observer


US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson flies in to London tomorrow to discuss the worsening global credit crisis with Chancellor Alistair Darling, as fears intensify that the lending squeeze could be the last straw for Britain's buy-now-pay-later economy.Thousands of anxious customers queued outside branches of Northern Rock to withdraw their savings this weekend, ignoring calls for calm from Darling, after he helped broker an unprecedented emergency loan from the Bank of England to rescue the bank. (PANIC?)
  • #27,316
  • Sep 15, 2007 6:41pm Sep 15, 2007 6:41pm
Quoting answerpips
I use
Stochastic RSI 8,3
Momentum 10 C
RSI 14
ADXR 14
Strength Indicator(very simillar to MACD) as the trend confirmation indicator.

If daily 4hr and 1hr all lined up together I go for a 500 pip profit target.
If only 4hr and 1hr lined up together I go for a 200-300 pip target.

If you want more detailed information I would suggest you to have a look @ other GBP/JPY analysis thread, where i have explained about the indicators on number of posts. Thanks for joining this thread& hope you will enjoy
THERE ARE MAY THREADS AND LOOKING FOR OTHER THREAD FO EXPLANATION IS SO HARD,PLS HELP!!!

answerpips:


Go Here:

For Auslanco Strategy and indicators for VT & MT4:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=41509
  • #27,317
  • Sep 15, 2007 7:02pm Sep 15, 2007 7:02pm
Quoting joiedevivre
Wow!!! I am in awe of your skill and success...I can only hope to achieve a fraction of your success after much devoted study on this pair. Thank you for all your posts...I am learning...albeit slowly. One ? please...what does S 231.63 mean? Is that a support level of some Kind? I'm certain it must be somethingvery obvious. Thank you.I r
hey buddy
i was posting all my trades as i was taking them on the last trading day.
S 231.63 was the last trade i took and ive still got that trade open (meaning i have a short postion open from 231.63)
  • #27,318
  • Sep 15, 2007 7:10pm Sep 15, 2007 7:10pm
[quote=karmostaji;1594740]This past week was excellent, hopefully next week will be better and with bigger moves since the Fed is going to have a little party with us lol

Ok, let's get to analyzing..

Karmo-- excellent, precise, straight forward analysis

guys--please learn how Karmo has done his analysis--keep it simple
Use the MA's, fibs, Aus main system,
(i also use Monthly pivots, CCI-18, and MACD- just as a side thing)

the analysis will show u 3 main things:
1) where to expect to put your t/p and s/l
2) where are major and minor S/R
3) where are areas of confluence

all these 3 things are interrelated

enjoy

ps-- Karmo your new ultimate south tgt is where my signature is right in btw your range 213
  • #27,319
  • Edited 11:02pm Sep 15, 2007 10:25pm | Edited 11:02pm
Great analysis by Karmo as always , Thanks buddy.

Every Monday since mid August, almost everyone including myself on this thread is predicting "that" big fall. I will post this analysis only to have a balance view on this thread.

Technical:
According to my strategy.. Daily charts are still very much bullish. 4hr tested the 200SMA once and as myself and lilmoe predicted it bounced back . Now the price is sitting on a deciding level.. Downward break from the current level will confirm a further fall.However to break 219 area daily QQE has to cross down.On the other hand if the price re-test the 200 sma, not only it will break that level, It will also limit any further bearish rallies towards 220 area and the price will be on it's way to 251+.

Fundamental..
Just early last week we heard on bloomberg , the stability of the financial markets and how investors are getting back in to the carry trades. Late last week, there were fresh news on how the UK is gradually falling into this this subprime "hole" and also the political uncertainty in Japan. At the same time hang seng index rose to all time high's, better than expected economic releases from the US and continues pitching's by world central bank leaders that there wont be a market crash like we saw on previous times. I must agree with Markam that things do not look good fundamentally. But when this big fall going to happen .. we don't know.

However I hope every intra-day trader should have a balance view on the market rather than getting married to this bearish mentality.

My strategy is clear and simple..as most of the traders here I'm an intraday trader. I take things as it comes, one trade at a time. I solely depend on my indicators. I have got a sell signal on my 4hr /1hr strategy on Friday with a profit target of 229.16. I'm looking to go short at a suitable price on Monday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #27,320
  • Sep 15, 2007 10:32pm Sep 15, 2007 10:32pm
Few wise words from my friend bill

Quoting bill77
Technical paterns are created by events such as wars and econony statements and politics. What makes me laugh on this thread is, when people pluck out old posts and claimed they predicted it. but i can also pluck out posts by these people(which i will not do) who predicted it might go the other way.So its 50/50 posibility and one will be right. I am new to forex and have plenty to learn but i will give you a prediction that is 100% guaranteed. the GBP/JPY is going to reach karmo's 251 and it will reach markhams 210 and when this happens, i will post my predictions from this post. it might take months or years but it will happen. So we need to work out something more precise and take pips day at a time rather than warrying about what was 10 yers ago. or what will be 10 years from now.
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