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Naked Cable

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 10, 2007 3:20am Sep 10, 2007 3:20am
This thread is to discuss cable and naked chart analysis not systems.
so on the hourly there is a pennant that has formed, not a triangle since triangles are classified as being a minimum of three weeks long. Anything shorter than that is classified as a pennant which has different rules and breakout percentages. The steep quick price trend prior to the pennant is also important for the performance of a pennant. The average rise in price in a bull market is 25%. However the average change after trend is -25%. which means a reversal is not likely.
So its a safe bet that cable should continue its uptrend.
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  • #2
  • Sep 10, 2007 6:37am Sep 10, 2007 6:37am
Alright I'm here, where's the nekkid ladies?

Wot? Charts? Well I'll look at their charts, too, if need be, but where's the nekkids?
There ain't none?

Awwwwwwwwww maaaaaaaaaaaan...... *sniffle*


Oh well, here's a chart anyway. Desc. TL from line chart, bar chart'd be a bit different. Not very proud of it since it all feels "make-do". Bit erratic, all.

Can't really find much on smaller timeframes that'd give a safe bet to either side. Actually waiting for a pullback..
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  • #3
  • Sep 10, 2007 6:57am Sep 10, 2007 6:57am
the hourly candle closed above the pennant and then retested it, so it looks as if it will go up from here. Remember when trading pennant or flag formations that you should WAIT until a candle CLOSES outside of the lines because wicks can and will go through the line only to come back, when a candle closes outside it is much better conformation.
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  • #4
  • Sep 10, 2007 7:24am Sep 10, 2007 7:24am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
so on the hourly there is a pennant that has formed, not a triangle since triangles are classified as being a minimum of three weeks long. Anything shorter than that is classified as a pennant which has different rules and breakout percentages.
Three weeks refers to a daily chart. You can not expect a short term chart to go sideways for 3 weeks. On an hourly chart that would be 360 candles!
  • #5
  • Sep 10, 2007 8:30am Sep 10, 2007 8:30am
Quoting philmcgrew
Three weeks refers to a daily chart. You can not expect a short term chart to go sideways for 3 weeks. On an hourly chart that would be 360 candles!
The market can go sideways for more than 3 weeks look at the USDCHF weekly. Triangles have different rules than pennants and one rule is, if it is shorter than three weeks it is a pennant, longer than three weeks triangle. so a triangle happens on the weekly, monthy and yearly charts and pennants would happen on the daily and shorter time frames shuch as the hourly. And you can also find pennants inside of a triagle by switching to a smaller time frame. After all no matter what time frame you are looking at its all saying the same thing and that is the price of the pair.
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  • #6
  • Sep 10, 2007 8:38am Sep 10, 2007 8:38am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
The market can go sideways for more than 3 weeks look at the USDCHF weekly. Triangles have different rules than pennants and one rule is, if it is shorter than three weeks it is a pennant, longer than three weeks triangle.
So a 1 hour chart could never have a triangle because it can't sit still for 360 candles and a weekly chart would only need 3 candles to qualify as a triangle? I think you're going a bit to literal on your interpretation. Where did you come up with the 3 week rule?
  • #7
  • Sep 10, 2007 8:38am Sep 10, 2007 8:38am
encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Bulkowski

Personally, I do not put much credence in patterns.
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  • #8
  • Sep 10, 2007 8:48am Sep 10, 2007 8:48am
Quoting philmcgrew
So a 1 hour chart could never have a triangle because it can't sit still for 360 candles and a weekly chart would only need 3 candles to qualify as a triangle? I think you're going a bit to literal on your interpretation. Where did you come up with the 3 week rule?
Its in the encyclopedia of chart patterns by Thomas Bulkowski.
Probly the best book to have for technical analysis. I consider it to be more like a bible than a book. It gives you almost pattern and explains in detail the rules for that pattern and the percentages of what MIGHT happen next as nothing is 100% certain in this market. It has helped me to be more succesful and I recomend it to everyone.
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  • #9
  • Sep 10, 2007 8:57am Sep 10, 2007 8:57am
I have the book in front of me. You have to undestand that his charts are daily charts. If you're looking at an hourly chart you can not expect a triangle to last 3 weeks!
  • #10
  • Sep 10, 2007 9:17am Sep 10, 2007 9:17am
Quoting philmcgrew
I have the book in front of me. You have to undestand that his charts are daily charts. If you're looking at an hourly chart you can not expect a triangle to last 3 weeks!

I never said that a triangle will last three weeks on the hourly, I just said that since it was less than three weeks that it was a pennant, as you said it would be nearly imposible to have a three week or longer triangle on the hourly. But here is a question. If his rules are based off of the daily and you look at the hourly do you divide the time to compisate for the shorter time frame? HMMMM
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  • #11
  • Sep 10, 2007 9:22am Sep 10, 2007 9:22am
Quoting smjones
Ok, well I could argue the other side. LOL

A pattern is the distillation of the mass phycology of the balance of buyers to sellers. So, it is not a pattern in itself, it is a road map of what the market is feeling...

Edit, I just realized I have messed up your thread about cable. This has nothing to do with that..

I am so sorry, I will delete my posts...

Please dont as its all relavent to TA and thats what this thread is all about is sharing our knowledge, so if I am wrong I would like to be corrected and also to know a different opinion and see what other people think.
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  • #12
  • Sep 10, 2007 9:23am Sep 10, 2007 9:23am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
But here is a question. If his rules are based off of the daily and you look at the hourly do you divide the time to compisate for the shorter time frame? HMMMM
I would think so but I'm not certain. I emailed Mr. Bullkowski and asked him the same questions. Perhaps he'll reply and if so, I'll post here.

Scott, I agree with you in that I'm not terribly interested in patterns either, I just think you can have a triangle less than 3 weeks long on shorter time frames.
  • #13
  • Sep 10, 2007 9:59am Sep 10, 2007 9:59am
All this talk about pennants and triagles and cable goes back down into "it".
just shows you that nothing is for certain in forex, but I'll keep looking at the charts and posting what I see and I'll still continue to trade with naked charts and TA cause its been good to me so far, along with other analysis.
Right now I haven't a clue.
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  • #14
  • Sep 10, 2007 10:34am Sep 10, 2007 10:34am
Here is a copy of the email I sent to Tom Bullkowski and below it is his reply:

Mr. Bullkowski,

I am a proud owner of the 2nd edition of Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns. In chapter 49 you discuss Symmetrical Triangles and aptly state that a triangle has to form over 3 weeks or more and that anything less is a pennant. This may seem like an unimportant distinction but it is my opinion that when you refer to "3 weeks" you are referring to a daily time frame. If one were to trade a 5 minute or hourly chart then the 3 week restriction would be excessive. Again, perhaps a petty distinction but it is the source of debate amongst a few forex traders and I would truly appreciate your
opinion.

Best regards,
Phil McGrew

Phil:
You're absolutely right, of course. The identification characteristics I mentioned are based on how people have identified them over the decades, on the daily charts. Any chart pattern can appear in any time scale and even the percentages I discuss for double tops and bottoms, I find myself violating. Does price have to rise at least 10% above the bottom in a double bottom? No, but the numbers help novices get comfortable identifying correct patterns before they can relax the rules and look for the near miss and the ones that don't have a chance of being called a double bottom and yet may perform well.

The Encyclopedia was written using mostly daily price charts, not with an intraday mentality. But the IDEAS should still apply to any time scale. The statistics should give you a record of comparison from pattern to pattern so you can select the ones that perform best historically. The numbers should NOT be used to suggest that a symmetrical will rise x% in XYZ stock because that's what the book says.

I'm hoping that experienced traders understand this and will use the information accordingly to improve their success. And if not, then spread the word.

Tom

(He just sent me this as well)

And let me clarify that the difference between a symmetrical triangle and a pennant is the existence of the flagpole. Pennants MSUT have a strong, vertical rise leading to the pattern but a symmetrical triangle need not have such a move (but they can, too).

In the final analysis, does it really matter what it's called? It's how you trade it that's important.

By the way, Big Wave Rider, I'm sorry for highjacking your thread. I did think it was worth commenting on but didn't realize it would take a page to clear it up. My apologies.
  • #15
  • Sep 10, 2007 11:11am Sep 10, 2007 11:11am
Thanks alot for posting that e-mail and I agree with that the same patterns can happen on all time frames and in the end its just part of your analysis and is subject to be wrong or change on a moments notice. What one trader sees as "this" another trader sees as "that" so its important to discuss our findings to cross check and analize through a different set of eyes. And also almost all rules are more of a guidline than actual rules. If forex followed all the rules everybody would be Buffett rich.
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  • #16
  • Sep 12, 2007 3:26am Sep 12, 2007 3:26am
Cable continuing uptrend.
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  • #17
  • Sep 12, 2007 5:25am Sep 12, 2007 5:25am
just to confuse ;p
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  • #18
  • Sep 16, 2007 6:45pm Sep 16, 2007 6:45pm
Possible C wave of an ABC correction on the daily, any one of those yellow lines are fibo targets. the first extension is at 1.9745.
On tuesday I was calling for 2.04. Funny how your analysis can completly change in a matter of a day or so.
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  • #19
  • Sep 17, 2007 3:52am Sep 17, 2007 3:52am
I dont know guys, I continue seeing GBP-weakness in all crosses, at least from a short term point of view.
  • #20
  • Sep 17, 2007 4:07am Sep 17, 2007 4:07am
Quoting WTB
I dont know guys, I continue seeing GBP-weakness in all crosses, at least from a short term point of view.
Yea...well it's ugly. EURGBP has broken above a desc. TL and caused most of this while EURUSD remains blissfully unaware of this all.

Long term subchannel TL coincides with that FE .618 as well as a retest of the desc. TL off the high. Those all go and we've got a a high likelyhood of a new trend / move / direction imho.
Question is what EURUSD will do when that happens as I can't see USD strength be completely replaced with solely GBP weakness there..
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