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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #6,841
  • Sep 10, 2007 11:42pm Sep 10, 2007 11:42pm
James 231287 & Old Dog!

Thanks so much for the answer to the MACD horizontal lines! You guys are fantastic!! Viu thanks you too .

Happy trading!

Pips
  • #6,842
  • Sep 10, 2007 11:48pm Sep 10, 2007 11:48pm
Quoting Forex4H
Hi,

I placed an order to short E/U at 1.7995. sl is 1.5227 and leave tl open now.
Any comment?

Thanks.
Hi Forex4H!

Think we have some typo's in the post.. ...so to all of us thinking...hmm..short? Check your charts...you may not agree...but the MACD is looking short at the present time...stop would need to be above 1.3850....and I'm not 100% convinced of the price action just yet....so, I'm not touching it ....Do think we are close to "knowing" soon...will keep an eye on the 1.3775 and 1.3850 levels....
  • #6,843
  • Sep 11, 2007 4:01am Sep 11, 2007 4:01am
Hi everybody:

Its seems that were sitting on the middle of a strong resistance area, that in my opinion its been broken, retraced, and finding support. But as we know TL they re not precisely exact and 8 EMA is giving support too, i would like to see with you..
I m setting the field for a long in case of confirmation at the 1 H chart.
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  • #6,844
  • Sep 11, 2007 4:36am Sep 11, 2007 4:36am
Quoting gustavo868
Hi everybody:

Its seems that were sitting on the middle of a strong resistance area, that in my opinion its been broken, retraced, and finding support. But as we know TL they re not precisely exact and 8 EMA is giving support too, i would like to see with you..
I m setting the field for a long in case of confirmation at the 1 H chart.

Hi, I haven't got the TL you have. On my chart the price is narrowed between 8MA and PL 1.3800. I like the way 8MA holds support, so I am also in favor of up move, but I have very strong resistance 1.3840, so not sure about R:R.
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  • #6,845
  • Sep 11, 2007 4:36am Sep 11, 2007 4:36am
  •  shauny
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Still learning and never gonna stop | 127 Posts
Quoting gustavo868
Hi everybody:

Its seems that were sitting on the middle of a strong resistance area, that in my opinion its been broken, retraced, and finding support. But as we know TL they re not precisely exact and 8 EMA is giving support too, i would like to see with you..
I m setting the field for a long in case of confirmation at the 1 H chart.
I think the EU will pull back to the 21ema before heading upwards... EU looks exhausted to head up.. Won't be longing right now.. As I'm long in GU... Hopefully, I could ride the trend upwards..
  • #6,846
  • Sep 11, 2007 4:53am Sep 11, 2007 4:53am
Quoting ira
Hi, I haven't got the TL you have. On my chart the price is narrowed between 8MA and PL 1.3800. I like the way 8MA holds support, so I am also in favor of up move, but I have very strong resistance 1.3840, so not sure about R:R.
Its the daily upper TL, price action stoped there rigth after last NFP on Friday.
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  • #6,847
  • Sep 11, 2007 5:08am Sep 11, 2007 5:08am
Quoting shauny
I think the EU will pull back to the 21ema before heading upwards... EU looks exhausted to head up.. Won't be longing right now.. As I'm long in GU... Hopefully, I could ride the trend upwards..
Yes, it looks good aswell to me and is about to give a signal,,,, nope , it already gave it 12:00 2 + GMT.
US Trade balance at in two and a half hours. Its a good spot to take your odds on...
  • #6,848
  • Sep 11, 2007 6:39am Sep 11, 2007 6:39am
  •  shauny
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Still learning and never gonna stop | 127 Posts
Quoting gustavo868
Yes, it looks good aswell to me and is about to give a signal,,,, nope , it already gave it 12:00 2 + GMT.
US Trade balance at in two and a half hours. Its a good spot to take your odds on...
yeah.. its good to take the odds on.. I'm longing gbp/usd @ 2.0255.. Stoploss +25pips.. Let's see what happens when the usd trade balance is out..
  • #6,849
  • Sep 11, 2007 7:55am Sep 11, 2007 7:55am
I am finding it useful seeing others charts on here as they do vary slightly. I expect that this is partly due to which data provider is used but also the start and end time of each bar.

So can I ask others on here what time (in GMT format) have you set the trading day to start for EUR / USD and what time have you set it to finish or have you set it to 24 hours ?

I have attached my set up and I welcome others comments



Paul
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  • #6,850
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:39am Sep 11, 2007 9:39am
Quoting T333
I am finding it useful seeing others charts on here as they do vary slightly. I expect that this is partly due to which data provider is used but also the start and end time of each bar.

So can I ask others on here what time (in GMT format) have you set the trading day to start for EUR / USD and what time have you set it to finish or have you set it to 24 hours ?

I have attached my set up and I welcome others comments



Paul
Hi Paul.
Im at GMT+2 (Paris, Madrid, bla,bla), set to 24 h, and i get 4hour candles at 0:00, 4:00, 8:00 etc, etc..
  • #6,851
  • Edited 12:08pm Sep 11, 2007 11:47am | Edited 12:08pm
  •  shauny
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Still learning and never gonna stop | 127 Posts
My chart shows a three mountain top, the westerns called triple top. It looks like a triple top to me.. Price hitting a strong resistance at that area. The 2nd top forms a tweezer top and the last top, a evening star doji was formed. Macd also showing heads and shoulders pattern. Using the 1hr chart to entry upon a round top variation.

Short @ 2.0300

Stoploss : 2.0345

TP: around 21ema or lower trendline..

I think its a high risk trade but I'm taking the odds on, anticipating a reversal down.. I also remember tamkras and pips were talking about "inside top" quite a long time ago.. Its also a "inside top" i think.. I could be wrong, but just sharing what I see on the chart.. Any comments??
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  • #6,852
  • Sep 11, 2007 12:11pm Sep 11, 2007 12:11pm
Quoting shauny
My chart shows a three mountain top, the westerns called triple top. It looks like a triple top to me.. Price hitting a strong resistance at that area. The 2nd top forms a tweezer top and the last top, a evening star doji was formed. Macd also showing heads and shoulders pattern. Using the 1hr chart to entry upon a round top variation.

Short @ 2.0300

Stoploss : 2.0345

TP: around 21ema or lower trendline..

I think its a high risk trade but I'm taking the odds on, anticipating a reversal down.. I also remember tamkras and pips were talking about "inside top" quite a long time ago.. Its also a "inside top" i think.. I could be wrong, but just sharing what I see on the chart.. Any comments??
I have to agree with you... My mum used to say ...what doesn't want to go up has to come down... And the fear that this will crash soon is just growing in me and I have made sort of the same analysis
.
  • #6,853
  • Sep 11, 2007 12:16pm Sep 11, 2007 12:16pm
  •  shauny
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Still learning and never gonna stop | 127 Posts
Quoting bullrock
I have to agree with you... My mum used to say ...what doesn't want to go up has to come down... And the fear that this will crash soon is just growing in me and I have made sort of the same analysis

Great.. Most likely, its coming down.. Just taking the odds on.. Hopefully we are right.. The stoploss better set outside the boundary, in case of stoploss hunters..
  • #6,854
  • Sep 11, 2007 12:22pm Sep 11, 2007 12:22pm
Quoting shauny
Great.. Most likely, its coming down.. Just taking the odds on.. Hopefully we are right.. The stoploss better set outside the boundary, in case of stoploss hunters..
"stoploss punters" Just not to make "a** from my mouth" I went short with small units....
.
  • #6,855
  • Sep 11, 2007 12:28pm Sep 11, 2007 12:28pm
Oh well it is risky enough... we will see we will see...
.
  • #6,856
  • Sep 11, 2007 12:32pm Sep 11, 2007 12:32pm
  •  shauny
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Still learning and never gonna stop | 127 Posts
yeah.. its risky.. Let's see how it goes along.. Price is struggling at the 3rd top.. Good Luck!!
  • #6,857
  • Sep 11, 2007 12:40pm Sep 11, 2007 12:40pm
Quoting shauny
My chart shows a three mountain top, the westerns called triple top. It looks like a triple top to me.. Price hitting a strong resistance at that area. The 2nd top forms a tweezer top and the last top, a evening star doji was formed. Macd also showing heads and shoulders pattern. Using the 1hr chart to entry upon a round top variation.

Short @ 2.0300

Stoploss : 2.0345

TP: around 21ema or lower trendline..

I think its a high risk trade but I'm taking the odds on, anticipating a reversal down.. I also remember tamkras and pips were talking about "inside top" quite a long time ago.. Its also a "inside top" i think.. I could be wrong, but just sharing what I see on the chart.. Any comments??
Hi Shauny,

First, you have done some nice analysis on previous trades and you seem to have planned your trades ahead of time...nicely done

I agree that your short is a high risk trade and your r:r seems a bit off...but that's just my take...I agree that Cable is ripe for a turn down, but I'm not sure if price won't go higher first. You do have a head and shoulder pattern forming on the 4 hour, so I'd def. keep an eye on the neckline trendline and see if price bounces. The Macd is also divergent, which is a great headsup that the trend is about to change.

Current price has not closed below the previous inside top...in fact the last closed candle (the doji) closed above the previous inside top pattern, thus a short hasn't confirmed via that support line...also price is still above strong longterm support lines identified on my chart. The doji may bode well for aggressive short...but price is still above all support lines (I understand you are trading via 1 hour pattern...you may want to plan your trade on that timeframe since in essence you are trading it (not a tc, not in harmony w/4 hour). (another thing I don't like for shorting yet is each of the spike highs is higher than the last...instead of nestling within one another...think this pair may be trending again....I'd be very careful and move my trade to BE asap...Just my opinion...hope you don't mind.

Happy trading!
Pips
  • #6,858
  • Sep 11, 2007 12:57pm Sep 11, 2007 12:57pm
  •  shauny
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Still learning and never gonna stop | 127 Posts
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Shauny,

First, you have done some nice analysis on previous trades and you seem to have planned your trades ahead of time...nicely done

I agree that your short is a high risk trade and your r:r seems a bit off...but that's just my take...I agree that Cable is ripe for a turn down, but I'm not sure if price won't go higher first. You do have a head and shoulder pattern forming on the 4 hour, so I'd def. keep an eye on the neckline trendline and see if price bounces. The Macd is also divergent, which is a great headsup that the trend is about to change.

Current price has not closed below the previous inside top...in fact the last closed candle (the doji) closed above the previous inside top pattern, thus a short hasn't confirmed via that support line...also price is still above strong longterm support lines identified on my chart. The doji may bode well for aggressive short...but price is still above all support lines (I understand you are trading via 1 hour pattern...you may want to plan your trade on that timeframe since in essence you are trading it (not a tc, not in harmony w/4 hour). (another thing I don't like for shorting yet is each of the spike highs is higher than the last...instead of nestling within one another...think this pair may be trending again....I'd be very careful and move my trade to BE asap...Just my opinion...hope you don't mind.

Happy trading!
Pips
Thanks for sharing for your valuable insights. I really appreciated what you have written.. I have noted the important points, like the doji has not closed below previous top and price is still above support line.. I have noted that the price is still above support line.. Very good point to be take note of.. I also agreed with you that stoploss should be move to BE asap.. Let's see how it goes.. I learn something today.. thank you.. Hopefully i could grab some pips..
  • #6,859
  • Edited 1:38pm Sep 11, 2007 1:23pm | Edited 1:38pm
Hello,

maybe there is an opportunity for a short trade building up on eur/usd.

we're still 10 Points away from the Head and Shoulder neckline on
the MACD. But if that's reached I'd probably go short, heading for
a TP around EMA21 (1.3764) at first.

What do you think?

Would you go short even earlier?


Also eur/usd is at an old resistance level around 1.3850. Todays high 1.3845.

Would you wait until this resistance has gotten tested and confirmed before going short?


I have attatched a daily and a 4h chart with trendlines. Please correct me if I have drawn them wrong.


Greetings
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  • #6,860
  • Sep 11, 2007 3:10pm Sep 11, 2007 3:10pm
Just my humble opinion. I have back tested Phillip's system over and over again (thank you [again] Phillip) to try to set up some sort of mechanical trading system which suits my money management.

What I have achieved, so far, is an insight into trend trading. Staring me in the face, on every trade, has been the stark reality of the trend. This is defined, on the H4 time frame or H4 TF as we traders like to call it, in my opinion, by the 89ma. 89 X 4 = 356 which, coincidentally, is 14 days. I think this is a realistic trend setting period. Not set in stone, but a good guide.

But what if the trend changes? It might change over say, 3 - 4 days and our indicators (bless them) are lagging like lagging should work on heating pipes. They tell us it's still warm when actually it is getting cold.

Price action: You have to love it or it will kill you. Just like love really. So if the price changes direction I like to see the 10ma confirm this. And the 21 is a bonus. Never trade against the trend is what I've learned.

Question: Does this make me a swing trader?
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