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Fundamentally Speaking...

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 9, 2007 10:42am Sep 9, 2007 10:42am
John Mouldin is the best economic columnist out there. I've been receiving his newsletter for years and he has been spot on. He predicted a housing bubble and crash as well as a lending crash back when people were saying it was just "frothiness" and "irrational exubriance". His current article speaks about the NFP numbers of last friday and addresses the FED's statement of possibly lowering rates again. Well worth signing up for but you can also view his article on their website as well as the archives.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/thoughts.aspx
  • #2
  • Sep 9, 2007 11:54pm Sep 9, 2007 11:54pm
Thanks, JR97
  • #3
  • Sep 10, 2007 3:55am Sep 10, 2007 3:55am
One general question for the folks here: why is it that the more I try to implement F.A. into my actual trading routine, my trading decisions become poorer than if I exclusively analyze the charts? Does anyone else suffer from this?
  • #4
  • Sep 10, 2007 6:44am Sep 10, 2007 6:44am
Quoting WTB
One general question for the folks here: why is it that the more I try to implement F.A. into my actual trading routine, my trading decisions become poorer than if I exclusively analyze the charts? Does anyone else suffer from this?
It helps to view it as a sort of postmodern comedy which sorta tells you what the chart said ahead of time afterwards.

Try not to take it too serious and I'm sure you'll continue to do great.

Trust TA - not the talking heads


(Personally I like to read, talk and discuss some of the more serious stuff, but in the end I mostly find myself going "er, have you even seen the chart of the pair you're talking about lately?" at some of the FA posts I see around..it's the usual seperating the wheat from the chaff thing...also I've reiterated a thousand times: how can a news article give you an entry and an exit price? My charts can and do for me, not sure how it works for the fundies..seen some use perverse 300+ pip "entry zones" and similiar stop losses..makes me groan)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #5
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:13pm Sep 10, 2007 12:13pm
Quoting WTB
One general question for the folks here: why is it that the more I try to implement F.A. into my actual trading routine, my trading decisions become poorer than if I exclusively analyze the charts? Does anyone else suffer from this?

WTB...

I hear you. I am a short term trader, trying to branch out into more longer term trades and larger time frames.
Not sure I know how to explain this that will make sense to those whom may read this down the road.

MY experience....if I were to look at a chart.....small time frames 15min or less....within an hour or so of a "news" annoucement....I can almost "tell" what the market is going to do once the "announcement" is over and out of the way.....just "seems" the "market" knows in advance, and when the news comes out, and is behind us.....the market goes exactly where the charts were pointing.....NOW, on the other hand, a TOTAL surprise negates this of course....similar to the last NFP report. Yet if many reports are close or inline, the market is already moving in the direction it wanted to go. Sometimes the market seems to just say..... whatever, and dismisses a report, and moves exactly where it wanted regardless.....seen that happen too, and the T/A was correct.
Now to negate what I said about the NFP report, the eur/usd was off London lows by about 25 pips +/- and all my readings stated LONG....this was a few hours before the report and into the report, and BANG, bad report, that pair shot North.
I DO NOT trade the news, and I sleep in late on the First Friday of the month. I don't even watch it....cuz I know deep down I will try to trade it, and my style is NOT good for HUGH moving type reports.
Now long term fundies seem to play a different role.....and the market seems like a hugh ship in a big river ( not ocean )....takes forever to change course MOST of the time.....other times it just changes on a dime....yet the charts where showing strenght/weakness, as the case may be.....days in advance.

All in all...in the short term for myself so far.....they have been helpful as I've begun to try to lenghten my time frames or at least my long term out look. Reading the news reports have helped me see more opportunities in different pairs that I may not follow.....

But as far as entry/exits.....all one has to do is look at a chart, and there it is!

Ramblings of a Techie!
Fxj
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #6
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:15pm Sep 10, 2007 12:15pm
Quoting WTB
One general question for the folks here: why is it that the more I try to implement F.A. into my actual trading routine, my trading decisions become poorer than if I exclusively analyze the charts? Does anyone else suffer from this?
Perhaps like me you are a "chartist"..................I never look at Fundamentals!

Quoting FxJarhead
I DO NOT trade the news, and I sleep in late on the First Friday of the month. Fxj
My sentiments exactly.....................
  • #7
  • Sep 10, 2007 5:52pm Sep 10, 2007 5:52pm
Quoting WTB
One general question for the folks here: why is it that the more I try to implement F.A. into my actual trading routine, my trading decisions become poorer than if I exclusively analyze the charts?
you are probably much better and more experienced with TA, thats my guess. the fundies are very tricky... until they are completely understood, it seems they actually do a trader harm. it was like that for me at least, i can remember viewing the "news" as one big fuzzy ball of nonsense. eventually i learned the art of picking out the important stuff, and that really made the difference. there are thousands of stories written each week, being able to determine which will move the market can only be achieved through experience...and a lot of it. for me, i only use like 1% of the stuff i read. luckily i enjoy reading this crap LOL
Relax and be happy.
  • #8
  • Sep 10, 2007 5:56pm Sep 10, 2007 5:56pm
Quoting JR97
John Mouldin is the best economic columnist out there.
just took a peek, good one! i think i remember reading him previously but lost touch.
Relax and be happy.
  • #9
  • Sep 10, 2007 8:55pm Sep 10, 2007 8:55pm
WTB et al,

Fundies turn the tide which Subsequently Triggers TA.

Ie. In Early = Fundies. In with Additional Confidence = TA.
  • #10
  • Sep 10, 2007 9:40pm Sep 10, 2007 9:40pm
Quoting merlin
for me, i only use like 1% of the stuff i read. luckily i enjoy reading this crap LOL
ouch!
  • #11
  • Sep 10, 2007 10:32pm Sep 10, 2007 10:32pm
Quoting Bemac
WTB et al,

Fundies turn the tide which Subsequently Triggers TA.

Ie. In Early = Fundies. In with Additional Confidence = TA.

I would agree with this statement....Valid Point.

Bemac, would you suppose that the ''deeper pockets'' get in earlier?

Thx
Fxj
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #12
  • Sep 10, 2007 10:56pm Sep 10, 2007 10:56pm
Quoting FxJarhead
I would agree with this statement....Valid Point.

Bemac, would you suppose that the ''deeper pockets'' get in earlier?

Thx
Fxj
YES BUT only with a Portion of their Risk Capital AND they do it All the Time.
  • #13
  • Sep 11, 2007 1:12am Sep 11, 2007 1:12am
The main reason I pay attention to Mouldin is because he's good. He doesn't parrot the talking head crap you see on the news channels. He tells it as it is good, bad, and ugly and when issues start to rear their head and not 6 months down the road after things can't be ignored any longer.

I never used to be a media basher until I started getting info from other places besides the mainstream media. All of a sudden I started noticing how there were two sides to the story and the one on tv didn't always jive.

I mean, how much gloss can you put on a turd? I don't the recall the station, but a few weeks ago when the dow was taking a beating for the first time in ages the story was literally, "The market finished higher today and analysts believe the downturn might be over." Yet the charts told a completely different story. Lower highs and lower lows. Sure, that day did finish higher than it's bottom for the day,but it was still lower than the open!

And don't even get me started on the whole real estate crisis and sub prime lending fiasco. The BS that is headlines today was red flags a few years ago yet nobody wanted to hear it. Why interupt all off the "exubriance" in the real estate market with a dose of reality?

I don't exactly trade fundamentals, but paying attention can at least lead to less suprises in the future. And it's always nice to here the economic opinions on what the news releases mean in reality terms and not just rocket moves on the chart.
  • #14
  • Sep 11, 2007 1:19am Sep 11, 2007 1:19am
Quoting Gary Deduke
ouch!
LOL!!!

gary not only are you always on my read list but often in the 1%!
Relax and be happy.
  • #15
  • Last Post: Sep 11, 2007 1:20am Sep 11, 2007 1:20am
Quoting FxJarhead
I would agree with this statement....Valid Point.
ditto.
Relax and be happy.
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