Trading Against the Mass Strategy

Dear All,

It is said that in the forex market, 95% are losers while only 5% actually make money.
Now I want to start an experiment to somehow prove it and take advantage of it!
Everyday I'll post a poll of the major currencies and ask for your opinion if it's heading up or down. Your vote of up or down must arise from your actual analysis, and better off after you have just opened a position based on your analysis. Then based on the poll, we can decide the direction of the day. Below is an example:
If in a GBP/USD poll, 100 traders here voted, 67 vote up and 33 vote down, based on the majority of traders lose and only a few wins, we can then predict that: 67% chance GBP/USD will move down, 33% chance GBP/USD will move up. That is, against the poll result.
I'd like to have this experiment run for a few months, and if it really proves that most ppl make the wrong decision, then the next time when we trade, we forexfactory traders can just take a look at the poll result and trade against it
NOW The key to the validity of this experiment is that you MUST plan your trade as you used to, using whatever systems, strategies you adopt. Even better than that, You have just made a trade based on your analysis, then right after that, you come to the poll and vote your trade direction.
Now I'll start the experiment with the poll for next Monday's currency pairs directions. I'll first include gbp/usd, gbp/jpy and eur/aud. I like these pairs 'coz they move more pips and are more trendy. Pls suggest your favourite pairs. Thanks!

I'll close the poll before London opens.

Forexfactory mates, pls. vote for today's direction. Only an hour left from London Open.

The idea of the poll is plain nonsense. Trading is not about predictions.

I'm just experimenting one possible way of making money.

22 forexfactorists have participated in the poll:
18(81.82%) voted UP
4(18.18%) voted DOWN
We can predict GDP/USD will
81.82% go DOWN
18.18% go UP

Sell at price now: 2.0288
SL: 2.0322
TP1: 2.0260
TP2: 2.0222
TP3: 2.0160

I understand your theory however I don't think it quite works that way. 100% of traders can be right about the general direction, and enter at the exact same price, however maybe only 20% of people will be profitable. Why is this? EXITS EXITS EXITS!! That is one of the biggest differences between a new and experienced trader. Exits also tie in with money management, and psychology (mind), which are the two biggest things in trading IMO. Some will see the price going against them and panic and take a small loss. Some will see price go against them and not have a S/L, or let their loss run, as they believe they are right and price will soon go in their direction, though it never does, and that is probably the worst habit you can have in forex. A few will get into profit a few pips and be so excited, yet fearful of losing those pips, that they will close out their trade way too early. Then there are a small few who have a reasonable take profit and though their trade suffers drawdown (almost EVERY trade will) they let it go and eventually it will hit their set T/P (or in some cases S/L). Basically what I am saying is exits is everything. 100 people can enter at the same spot, have the same "chance" of winning, yet most end up losing, because of their exits.

Thank you. very good point about why ppl using the same system result differently!
I agree with you that exit strategy plays a very important role in trading for profits. However, it's not easy, there r so many factors incl. like the mind status you mentioned after opening a trade. That said, if you trade with the direction of the market, not against it, the chance of winning or minimizing losing will be much larger. Thru the poll i want to learn how people find the trend of the day, and compare with what is the actual trend, and see if there's any relationships. It seems not many ppl r participating and sample size is too small, but I'll continue do it, and hope more ppl would participate.
But thank you again for your reply, and yes I agree with you.

Same idea, larger trading population:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=41992