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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #6,801
  • Sep 7, 2007 8:32am Sep 7, 2007 8:32am
Somehow I lost my F10 pop-up price window again!!! I figured out the keystroke combination to restore the window a few months ago...something like ctrl-alt-...something.

Anyone know the keystrokes to restore a lost window? Can't find any internet info either...

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #6,802
  • Sep 7, 2007 8:35am Sep 7, 2007 8:35am
Quoting BIL2205
Yes phillip will be happy to see us making pips. i had only 1 small lot on euro, hit take profit +60 pips. one lot on cable still running. moved stoploss to + 50 pips. lets see. wanted to move stop loss on euro as well. But the spike was too fast.
Trade well and pips plenty.
Nadia.
moved to +50 aswell, see if 61,8 fib at the same time that 2,0260 can hold the pullback.
Anyway i think we know the direction for the next few days.
By the way: hi everybody i m new here and im starting to read the trhead, and Phil's lessons
  • #6,803
  • Edited 10:10am Sep 7, 2007 9:03am | Edited 10:10am
ok i closed my cable long manually +70 after it miss my take profit of 2.0316 by one pip. Today being friday and all.
Nadia.
ok after deleting the 3 sister comment i decided to post a chart . looks like it might have been them.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #6,804
  • Sep 7, 2007 1:33pm Sep 7, 2007 1:33pm
Palmer, I just wanted to say thanks for all your hard work!
  • #6,805
  • Sep 7, 2007 4:47pm Sep 7, 2007 4:47pm
waow, 100 pips for CAD from changes in employment rate... omg.. that looks so yummy..

Anyway, what's wrong with my system of trade.. it seems that the pips love my stop loss so much... It happened 4 times already:

1. EUR/CAD 28 Aug 21:00 going short. Was waiting for Head and Shoulder, the pips went over my S/L just 5 pips... -21

2. EUR/CAD 29 Aug 20:53 going short. Still believing it will go down completing head and shoulder, I was thinking probably my S/L is too close, then I raised it just to get hit by doji with high of 1.4534, while my S/L is 1.4530. -30 here.

And the worse thing is, my prediction was right, it was testing for 89 and went all the way down for 80-100 pips........ T___T

Fine.. then I test gbp/chf
3. gbp/chf 5 Sept 19:00 going short. I enter because evening star, engulfing, and 89sma. Again, the pips went up (1.4350) just to hit my S/L then go all the way down...... -36 here.

Fine... maybe i need to raise my S/L again... then i try gbp/usd

4. gbp/usd 6 Sept 22:00 now buying. This is the worst... same pattern, morning star, bull engulf, and 89 going up. At first, it went down a little bit, then I revised my S/L (make it higher, coz I believe it will go up). Then the next 2 candle, the low hit my S/L at exactly 2.0160, and then went all the way up !!!! for almost 100 pips !!!! -76 here...

then i sat back and saw what i have done... trying to figuring out what's wrong... omg, during practicing this macd system, my view never wrong, it's just my s/l that's messed up.

This is great system, I learned so much, and so far it's been great (If i don't have S/L, the pips are going where it supposed to go and i'm making profit...)

Any comments or insight would be very appreciated... as I'm kinda watching market right now... especially after those news that makes the price jump !!
  • #6,806
  • Sep 7, 2007 8:25pm Sep 7, 2007 8:25pm
Quoting ashes
Thank you, bil and pips, for your explanations.
Difficult market, indeed.

It appears as if I generally should include the 1h chart a lot more.

I should give more emphasis to the direction of the ma's, like the sma 89 today.

Also the resistance of the sma 200 has been a point, I see that now.

There has been a little timewindow when one should have entered long, round NY market open, but at that time there was no proof that the sma 200 resitance would hold ... at least no proof to me .

anyway ... more opportunities to come.

Greetings
Hi ashes!

I use the 1 hour a lot in my trading (from the beg. of this thread I kept it on my screen b/c of the time difference w/my candles from many on the forum)...BUT...I started the system by trading ONLY from 4 hour chart. With time and lots of observation, I incorporated the 1 hour chart.

My point is: Concentrate on the 4 hour until you get it down...to the point where you can look at it and KNOW what it says to you without much effort & your trade planning and accuracy is really good. Once you've mastered that, move on to incorporating the 1 hour. FOCUS on 1 thing at a time. There will always be losing trades no matter how good you are at analyzing the current market. You have it 100% right...There are many more opportunities to come!!

Wishing you all the best! Enjoy your weekend!!!

Pips
  • #6,807
  • Sep 7, 2007 8:29pm Sep 7, 2007 8:29pm
Quoting Martas
Hi everybody,
despite of being new in this thread, during last two month I have been following and carefully reading all the thread... I've listened all the MP3 and I have to say that I am very impressed with the system that Phil developed. So, Phil thanks for your effort and thanks all of you guys and girls for your great job that you've done so far. Even I am in paper trading period now and I have to learn a lot about the rhythm of the market, I have to say that PhilNeil system is the first reliable 4hour system among systems what I have tested this year.
Martas
Great Job, Martas! Keep up the good work!! The system teaches all the skills a trader needs to make smart reasonable decisions (not that we always do ). Take your time and learn the skills well!! You will cut many sad moments off your trading career by learning the lessons early!!

Welcome to our community!
  • #6,808
  • Sep 7, 2007 8:31pm Sep 7, 2007 8:31pm
Quoting InForTheHaul
Hi Palmer,

Got the download - thanks. Didn't get the lollipop - is it possible to exchange the lollipops for lotsapips?

InForTheHaul
YES!!!!!! I like your style!!!!!!!
  • #6,809
  • Sep 7, 2007 8:40pm Sep 7, 2007 8:40pm
Quoting sgrig
I'm still shaking with adrenaline - this was the first time I had an open trade during NFP! And good for me, I was long on GBP/USD!
Great to hear!! Congrats!!

May I just say 1 thing...Enjoy the ride! But...always be wary on NFP w/open trades that aren't deep in the money! With the widened spread and the choppy action, it is very easy to be taken out. Even worse, the slippage can be large.

My point is: Be glad for the positive pips, but always give respect to the market. Don't fly on the adreniline b/c eventually it crashes and NFP can easily break an account when front trading it. (even though I have to admit the last 12 months haven't been very spectacular as far as NFP goes).

Oh...and this was a general post to all of us traders out there! Especially when we win a few times w/the open position ahead of the report...we can get a false sense of security...and then...the "unexpected" happens.....(more often than not, we are gambling w/the numbers...because there is NO WAY to know ahead of the game what the release numbers will be or how much the revision is)....The previous econ indicators do a piss poor job of forecasting the number.
  • #6,810
  • Sep 7, 2007 8:51pm Sep 7, 2007 8:51pm
Quoting benniardi
waow, 100 pips for CAD from changes in employment rate... omg.. that looks so yummy..

Anyway, what's wrong with my system of trade.. it seems that the pips love my stop loss so much... It happened 4 times already:

1. EUR/CAD 28 Aug 21:00 going short. Was waiting for Head and Shoulder, the pips went over my S/L just 5 pips... -21

2. EUR/CAD 29 Aug 20:53 going short. Still believing it will go down completing head and shoulder, I was thinking probably my S/L is too close, then I raised it just to get hit by doji with high of 1.4534, while my S/L is 1.4530. -30 here.

And the worse thing is, my prediction was right, it was testing for 89 and went all the way down for 80-100 pips........ T___T

Fine.. then I test gbp/chf
3. gbp/chf 5 Sept 19:00 going short. I enter because evening star, engulfing, and 89sma. Again, the pips went up (1.4350) just to hit my S/L then go all the way down...... -36 here.

Fine... maybe i need to raise my S/L again... then i try gbp/usd

4. gbp/usd 6 Sept 22:00 now buying. This is the worst... same pattern, morning star, bull engulf, and 89 going up. At first, it went down a little bit, then I revised my S/L (make it higher, coz I believe it will go up). Then the next 2 candle, the low hit my S/L at exactly 2.0160, and then went all the way up !!!! for almost 100 pips !!!! -76 here...

then i sat back and saw what i have done... trying to figuring out what's wrong... omg, during practicing this macd system, my view never wrong, it's just my s/l that's messed up.

This is great system, I learned so much, and so far it's been great (If i don't have S/L, the pips are going where it supposed to go and i'm making profit...)

Any comments or insight would be very appreciated... as I'm kinda watching market right now... especially after those news that makes the price jump !!

Hi B!

Are you putting your stops above the star spike? Are you adding the spread + a few pips? Also, notice you use a lot of numbers w/0....Stops are hard (an art)..just do your best...try backtesting and see how often your stop gets hit...if it often, then, look at what you might need to do differently/better. Stops really are difficult...and frustrating...But, sooooooooo very important. Remember too...a stop should be placed where your trade is no longer valid and where you should re-assess the charts. Maybe you are trying to be to tight and not giving breathing room? (either way, it really does stink to have your stop hit then market turns...).
  • #6,811
  • Sep 8, 2007 1:35am Sep 8, 2007 1:35am
Thanks for your reply,

Absolutely... and it happens 4 times, and maybe you're right, I didn't give enough space for it to breathe... It's like 4 times, and all my view was right, it's just the S/L placement that makes me frustrated...

I'll do my best next time..

Thank you, have great weekend all !
  • #6,812
  • Sep 8, 2007 10:53am Sep 8, 2007 10:53am
Quoting pips4uandme
Great to hear!! Congrats!!

May I just say 1 thing...Enjoy the ride! But...always be wary on NFP w/open trades that aren't deep in the money! With the widened spread and the choppy action, it is very easy to be taken out. Even worse, the slippage can be large.
Thanks! My open trade was floating around b/e just before the NFP, so I was quite worried that a whipsaw could take out my s/l, so I consider myself to be lucky!
  • #6,813
  • Sep 8, 2007 11:15am Sep 8, 2007 11:15am
Quoting sgrig
Thanks! My open trade was floating around b/e just before the NFP, so I was quite worried that a whipsaw could take out my s/l, so I consider myself to be lucky!

Wow, sgrig! This isn't the right forum...but may I say you sure know your stuff about currency pairs! Just finished reading your post on the correlation w/carry unwinds...and I must say it was great! With that much knowledge, you def. didn't need my mindless reminder to becareful trading before NFP!

Nice post, I really enjoyed it! Thanks....and again WOW!

Respectfully,
Pips
  • #6,814
  • Sep 8, 2007 2:02pm Sep 8, 2007 2:02pm
The Current Market Rhythm page is now active on the website...

Let me know what you guys think...Gotta get back to the BAMA game..
  • #6,815
  • Sep 8, 2007 3:30pm Sep 8, 2007 3:30pm
Quoting Palmer
The Current Market Rhythm page is now active on the website...

Let me know what you guys think...Gotta get back to the BAMA game..
I thinks its an excellent and very informative analysis of the weekly market rhythms!

thanks very much for taking the time to set up such a site!

James
  • #6,816
  • Sep 8, 2007 4:49pm Sep 8, 2007 4:49pm
Thanks james:

Ok the BAMA game is over so I can post now...

What's the significance of Market Rhythm? When a bull market trend is strong such as price action closing above the 89 and the 8 for several candles per Phillip's method. Finding the 'spot to get in' is important. When price takes a pause back to the 21 ema area and then continues upward, that's the key to re-enter the trend. The trick here is that the pause may be the start of a rounded top formation. So, how do you determine to take the short signal rounded top or re-enter the bull trend when price hits the 21 ema area? Is price hitting the top of a channel, or at a major resistance area where this is 'expected to happen? Or is price just simply turning down to take a break? You may still be holding a long position or two while this is happening and pips start to slowly tick away. If that is the case you may have to take a short position against a long position that you hold. Part of the answer of what to do is position management. If you're long already you can tighten up those long stops to just under the 21 ema and wait for the trend to continue since this is the way a trend continuation trade works out ( back to the 21 and then proceeding in the original direction). Or, start managing the new short positions if price continues to slide. Another part of the answer is discipline, a common ingredient to be a successful trader. If you take the short against your longs you have to be comfortable with the fact that one side is now losing money (your longs) while your other side is making money (the shorts). If your longs get stopped out while your shorts make it down to the 21...fantastic one your short targets has been hit. You're longs have served you well while the shorts are now your main focus. If price starts to head back up and is now approaching your stops for your remaining short positions it's time to start thinking. Is this a trend continuation signal developing? Is the market starting to form a top? Is price stalling for a while? How do I know? Basically, you don't. Just have your plan ready and take action. Plot your trendlines. Is a chart pattern forming on the daily timeframe? Have 'enough' data on you chart to see the full picture.

The Rhythm Strength value should get you thinking of the strength of the current trend. If the daily strength is +2 for several days, and the 4 hr is +2 for a good while, those pullbacks to the 21 area on the 4 hour chart can be opportunities to re-enter the long side. Some of those re-entry candles can be quite long though and the risk may be too great. That's where the 1 hr chart comes into play..getting in a little sooner and making that 4 hr candle a little smaller. That'll be the next chapter to understand, and put on the website. There can be a lot of variation getting in on the 1 hr timeframe so I'm slowly getting that together.

We all take losses. Perfect set-ups sometimes just don't work out and we start to question our methods even if the entry was by the book. That's why it's called speculating. We are speculating that the market is going to do a certain 'thing', go up or go down. Sometimes we will be wrong. Sometimes we will be right. We just want to be right more times than we are wrong in the long run. Knowing what the current rhythm is and being able to read it on the charts is basically just being able to determine the current trend. Up, down, or sideways...that's it. The stronger the trend = the more consecutive +2s or -2s. A pause in the trend a +1 or -1 (a possible pullback to the 21) should raise a flag somewhere to prepare for action.
  • #6,817
  • Sep 9, 2007 1:52am Sep 9, 2007 1:52am
Hello Palmer,

Thank you for all your hard work. I really enjoy being here.

Elaine
  • #6,818
  • Sep 9, 2007 9:54am Sep 9, 2007 9:54am
Dear all

As mentioned in lession 4 .. we are now in the market rhythm .. every time price back to 21 and we get TC .. we are going long

Best wishes

Ammar
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  • #6,819
  • Sep 9, 2007 11:32am Sep 9, 2007 11:32am
The price on Friday bounced off the down sloping trendline (from 24 Jul High 1.3850), next candle is a doji (can't say if Friday's doji should be really considered). Should this trend line prove to be a strong Resistance and MACD gives a RT, then will go SHORT from 1.3790 - 1.3780 region, STOP LOSS 1.3810, TP 1.3450 (rising SUPPORT trendline on the Daily chart).
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  • #6,820
  • Sep 9, 2007 3:35pm Sep 9, 2007 3:35pm
Palmer,

Have a safe trip this week. See you when you get back.

Pips
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