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The Market Is Tricky

  • #121
  • Jul 3, 10:03am (13 hr ago) Jul 3, 10:03am (13 hr ago)
EUR struggles to go into profit.
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  • #122
  • Jul 3, 11:14am (12 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:14am (12 hr ago)
Quoting Rickblaise
{quote} I can’t figure out where to find a currency strength indicator you built it yourself ? Cause when I type currency strength search if gives like battery level bars
you can get one from fx blue. It's free to use on both mt4 and mt5. You can also adjust the timeframe you want to look at. For example, i set mine to m1,m5 and m15 for when i am looking for an entry. It helps but its not a holy grail because at these lower timeframes it can fake you out.
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  • #123
  • Jul 3, 11:18am (12 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:18am (12 hr ago)
Quoting marcone
{quote} you can get one from fx blue. It's free to use on both mt4 and mt5. You can also adjust the timeframe you want to look at. For example, i set mine to m1,m5 and m15 for when i am looking for an entry. It helps but its not a holy grail because at these lower timeframes it can fake you out. {image}
Have you tested it for a while? Is it reliable?
  • #124
  • Jul 3, 11:19am (12 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:19am (12 hr ago)
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{image}
wait. You buy every GBP pair? I thought you'd just pick one out of the gbp basket that seems more volatile. Can i ask why?
  • #125
  • Jul 3, 11:21am (12 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:21am (12 hr ago)
Update on the GBP crosses at 19:00, from the 13:00 computations. The other currencies are in profit about 100 USD, so GBP is the clear winner since the first day of testing.
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  • #126
  • Jul 3, 11:27am (12 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:27am (12 hr ago)
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} If the market is able to F some traders then some traders should be able to F the market back. I don't know how else to say that. I would really like the big money try to unweave and untangele and decipher this one. I think they're going to have to allow some traders to F them back. At this time, I don't think they can get around this one. Too many moving parts, too many entanglements, too many variables that I don't think they can control enough percentage of, of the entire Forex market AUD CAD CHF EUR GBP JPY NZD USD, to keep F'ing some...
We should be able to f them back BUT they have the supply, the super smart algos and the timing of when things actually happen. We can only guess as to what will happen next. We only know that markets have to move. Be it driven by fundamental news events, tweets, war, etc we have to get the correct timing and have the conviction that over time we'll make more than we lose as 95% of retail traders lose their shirts.
  • #127
  • Jul 3, 11:39am (11 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:39am (11 hr ago)
Quoting marcone
{quote} wait. You buy every GBP pair? I thought you'd just pick one out of the gbp basket that seems more volatile. Can i ask why?
Yes and that's by design. That's one of the advantages of v3.0 because big players will generally push one pair around at a time, not an entire GBP's worth of crosses at once. So if v3.0 says GBP strong then that means GBP strong across all the crosses. This is so that when a fake out is designed on any GPB pair, then that engineered pair effectively gets diluted by the other GBP crosses. The GBP basket basically averages out pair level noise. To put it simply, v3.0 is identifying true strength, which is one of the real defenses it has against fake outs.
  • #128
  • Jul 3, 11:43am (11 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:43am (11 hr ago)
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} Have you tested it for a while? Is it reliable?
I would say so. Babypips also has a strength meter so you could look at both to see which is more reliable. You have to keep in mind that if you go down towards the smaller timeframes it becomes less reliable. Gold is a motherfocker.

Quote
https://marketmilk.babypips.com/currency-strength

fxbue has a browser version but also for mt4/mt5. I prefer mt5 version because i don't want to get distracted by something else.

Quote
https://www.fxblue.com/market-data/t...rency-strength

I think this might be the metatrader version:
Quote
https://www.fxblue.com/tools-for-dow...ader-app-suite
  • #129
  • Jul 3, 11:50am (11 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:50am (11 hr ago)
Quoting marcone
{quote} We should be able to f them back BUT they have the supply, the super smart algos and the timing of when things actually happen. We can only guess as to what will happen next. We only know that markets have to move. Be it driven by fundamental news events, tweets, war, etc we have to get the correct timing and have the conviction that over time we'll make more than we lose as 95% of retail traders lose their shirts.
And you're right. I've also built a defense around timing, which matters a lot more than people might realize. Markets are tricky. I don't get how anyone expects to get consistency by researching threads covering basics or public formulas. It's like going into battle with a plastic fork. Markets are tricky, and to meaningfully fight back, people have to try harder than the plastic fork threads I've seen so far in FF.
  • #130
  • Jul 3, 11:51am (11 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:51am (11 hr ago)
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} Yes and that's by design. That's one of the advantages of v3.0 because big players will generally push one pair around at a time, not an entire GBP's worth of crosses at once. So if v3.0 says GBP strong then that means GBP strong across all the crosses. This is so that when a fake out is designed on any GPB pair, then that engineered pair effectively gets diluted by the other GBP crosses. The GBP basket basically averages out pair level noise. To put it simply, v3.0 is identifying true strength, which is one of the real defenses it has against...
Right but if you are wrong, then you are wrong on multiple pairs going against you. If gbp is weak and then temporarily strong then it gets weak again...it becomes a problem. You didn't mention anything about a TP or SL you would use and target.

The reason i was surprised of this is because i watched and learned from old school traders and they look at currency baskets usd, gbp, jpy, etc and if jpy looks strong on most if not all pairs, then they pick one pair from the basket with solid ATR and divide that by 3 hoping to catch 1/3 of the move 10-20 pips and get out and do it all over again tomorrow. This seems to be different. I don't quite understand what to look for and how to implement it.
  • #131
  • Jul 3, 11:53am (11 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:53am (11 hr ago)
Quoting marcone
{quote} I would say so. Babypips also has a strength meter so you could look at both to see which is more reliable. You have to keep in mind that if you go down towards the smaller timeframes it becomes less reliable. Gold is a motherfocker. {quote} fxbue has a browser version but also for mt4/mt5. I prefer mt5 version because i don't want to get distracted by something else. {quote} I think this might be the metatrader version: {quote}
I mean, whatever works. I would just say, try it out, trade it or show where the entries would have been based some timestamp from those public indicators and test it out and see if it works.
  • #132
  • Jul 3, 11:56am (11 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:56am (11 hr ago)
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
Update on the GBP crosses at 19:00, from the 13:00 computations. The other currencies are in profit about 100 USD, so GBP is the clear winner since the first day of testing. {image}
Friday evening is not very good for trading. Everybody that matters in these markets is looking to close up shop and go home for the weekend. Several times the volatility dries up and you get caught in a trade that doesn't go anywhere. Other times they push the market way beyond where anybody thought it could go and if the market closes and you're still in a trade you might have a very nice "surprise" when on monday it gaps against you and not just by a little. Ask me how i know.
  • #133
  • Jul 3, 12:05pm (11 hr ago) Jul 3, 12:05pm (11 hr ago)
Quoting marcone
{quote} Right but if you are wrong, then you are wrong on multiple pairs going against you. If gbp is weak and then temporarily strong then it gets weak again...it becomes a problem. You didn't mention anything about a TP or SL you would use and target. The reason i was surprised of this is because i watched and learned from old school traders and they look at currency baskets usd, gbp, jpy, etc and if jpy looks strong on most if not all pairs, then they pick one pair from the basket with solid ATR and divide that by 3 hoping to catch 1/3 of the...
It might sound like I don't care about risk, but I do, probably more than most people. That's why I watch the floating equity like a hawk and track what drawdown is doing minute by minute. If something feels off about the floating equity, I adjust the strategy.

At the risk of sounding crazy, I manage risk by focusing on accuracy. The more accuracy, the less I need a traditional stop loss.

TP is 1:1 against whatever the floating max loss was. Here the max loss was about 200 USD, so TP would be 200 USD. This is demo, so I'm just letting the basket run. I'm doing my trading now with this v3.0, so I could probably push to 2x the max loss, maybe 3x. It just needs testing before I'd trust it.
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SL is the account itself. When the focus is accuracy, you don't need a large account. Something small like 500 USD to 1K can be enough to generate a decent daily amount.
  • #134
  • Jul 3, 12:16pm (11 hr ago) Jul 3, 12:16pm (11 hr ago)
Quoting marcone
{quote} Friday evening is not very good for trading. Everybody that matters in these markets is looking to close up shop and go home for the weekend. Several times the volatility dries up and you get caught in a trade that doesn't go anywhere. Other times they push the market way beyond where anybody thought it could go and if the market closes and you're still in a trade you might have a very nice "surprise" when on monday it gaps against you and not just by a little. Ask me how i know.
Yes, that's generally the experience. But I think with v3.0 traders might find it different, it just needs testing to see if it works for them. I've been posting indicator screenshots like a madman, but so far nobody's bothered to check it out. Pretty soon I'll be gone. It gets boring posting for no feedback, no testing, no ideas, nothing. Win rate on my entries, pretty okay. Win rate on others analyzing the indicator, 0% haha
  • #135
  • Jul 3, 1:30pm (10 hr ago) Jul 3, 1:30pm (10 hr ago)
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} I mean, whatever works. I would just say, try it out, trade it or show where the entries would have been based some timestamp from those public indicators and test it out and see if it works.
well, since your system is based on currency strength i thought this might help you. On the other thread you said;"feel free to participate". I'm not sure how to interpret or use the images you are showing. Have you tried putting real $ behind it?
  • #136
  • Jul 3, 2:13pm (9 hr ago) Jul 3, 2:13pm (9 hr ago)
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} Yes, that's generally the experience. But I think with v3.0 traders might find it different, it just needs testing to see if it works for them. I've been posting indicator screenshots like a madman, but so far nobody's bothered to check it out. Pretty soon I'll be gone. It gets boring posting for no feedback, no testing, no ideas, nothing. Win rate on my entries, pretty okay. Win rate on others analyzing the indicator, 0% haha
how are we supposed to test something we don't have? Create a test version we can actually test so we can see it work in real time. If you see someone post an image of them entering a trade and you see the post 3 hours later, would you take a trade off of that? I wouldn't. The market conditions can change on a dime. Especially if Trump opens his mouth. I'm seeing some lines plotted on a chart, some go up, some go down. Sometimes the plotted line stops. Like the gbp line in blue stops while the red line cad keeps plotting along(image with the rectangle). Then i looked at the usd line and the gbp line and now the usd line is moving up and getting close to the gbp but we don't really know where the gbp line is. Since the usd line is above 0 and going up does it mean we should buy $ and sell gbpusd? From 14.15 til 15.20 gbpusd moved mostly in a tight range of around 10 pips. Nothing to write home about. Maybe it will show something more obvious on more volatile days. idk.
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  • #137
  • Jul 3, 8:37pm (3 hr ago) Jul 3, 8:37pm (3 hr ago)
Quoting marcone
{quote} how are we supposed to test something we don't have? Create a test version we can actually test so we can see it work in real time. If you see someone post an image of them entering a trade and you see the post 3 hours later, would you take a trade off of that? I wouldn't. The market conditions can change on a dime. Especially if Trump opens his mouth. I'm seeing some lines plotted on a chart, some go up, some go down. Sometimes the plotted line stops. Like the gbp line in blue stops while the red line cad keeps plotting along(image with...
Good questions, and let me try to clarify with a metaphor. Think of it as a room filling with voices. When you first apply the indicator, the room is empty. It's listening, gathering. Then people start walking in. The first one steps up and says GBP strong. Then another circle plots and it's GBP strong again. Another circle, GBP strong. Another, GBP strong. Every circle that appears is that same voice saying it once more. And the further a circle steps away from the center, the louder that voice is shouting. A circle above the center that keeps stepping higher is GBP strong, then GBP STRONG, said with more and more volume on the strong side. A circle below the center works the same way in the other direction. The further it steps down, the louder that voice is shouting on the weak side, CAD weak, then CAD WEAK. A moment later a second person comes in doing exactly that, and with each new circle, CAD weak, CAD weak, CAD weak. Then a third joins, NZD weak, repeating with every circle of its own. Early on there are only a few voices, so each one is crisp and easy to make out. This is when the map is cleanest, before the time decay of the design has set in. You can hear exactly who's saying what, and act on it.

As time passes, the room keeps filling, and the time decay of the design begins to take hold. More voices join, and many of them are just repeating themselves, holding the same spot without stepping closer to or further from the center. They're not providing any new information, it's sideways, nothing significant is being said, but they're still contributing volume. Every one of those repeats fills the room a little more and makes it louder and harder to hear. So when someone new actually walks in with something to say, like CHF weak, they can barely be heard over everyone already talking. The newest information is the hardest to pick out, because it's arriving into a crowd that's loud without being informative. Eventually the room is packed and loud enough that it's hard to distinguish any single voice at all.

This is built in on purpose, and not only for clarity by keeping things adaptive. It's also there to keep big money from figuring out what you're doing. If big money estimates that a large subset of traders are all running the same public formula, then they effectively know what that whole group is about to do, and they can position against it. The obfuscations here break that. Because the adaptive design sheds and reshapes from the moment the indicator is started, there's no fixed, public read or public formula for anyone to reverse engineer. The same choices that make the room self shed over time, improving accuracy by clearing out stale noise, also make it hard for big money to pin down your read. It serves both purposes at once.

Another defense that was already mentioned in a previous post is, the indicator isn't designed to act on just one pair, and that matters. Big players will generally push one pair around at a time, not an entire currency's worth of crosses at once. So when v3.0 says GBP strong, it means GBP strong across all the crosses, not on a single chart. This is deliberate. When a fake out is engineered on any one GBP pair, that manipulated pair gets diluted by all the other GBP crosses. The basket averages out pair level noise. Put simply, v3.0 is identifying true strength, and that's one of the real defenses it has against fake outs. A voice in the room isn't one pair shouting, it's the whole basket for that currency agreeing.

And another important thing, a loud voice late in the session doesn't necessarily mean that currency is truly strong. Because of the time decay of the design, a circle that steps far from center after the room is already crowded is a voice shouting into noise, not a clean read. The same loudness that means conviction early on means much less later, because the read degrades as the room fills. Distance from center tells you loudness, but the time decay of the design tells you how much that loudness is actually worth.

That's the time decay of the design at work. This is a map to act on early, not later. You've got roughly a two hour window from the moment you apply it, and the early part of that window is where the voices are clearest and most worth acting on. Whatever shows up early, whether it's GBP strong, GBP weak, or any other currency stepping out before the room is too loud, that's the read worth looking at. After that, the time decay of the design has made the room too loud to trust anything new, and too shifting for anyone on the outside to decode. It isn't meant to last forever. The early voices are the good ones.

How I'm personally using it is, let's say I want to build a position around the movement that 10:00 London provides. I'll start the indicator at 08:00 and act on the readings as they come in, leading into London. By the time London arrives, I've already decided whether I'm trading GBP strong or GBP weak, because the clean early reads happened while the room was still quiet. Same approach for 15:00 New York. I start the analysis at 13:00, two hours ahead, and let the early voices tell me what to do before the open. What I've personally noticed is that starting at 03:00 Tokyo is also good, and London then tends to push those positions into profit. In other words, the currencies identified during Tokyo tend to hold up through the day going into London, and sometimes longer. All of this still needs continued testing, but that's the rhythm. Start about two hours before the session you care about, take the early reads, and be positioned before the room fills.
  • #138
  • Last Post: Jul 3, 9:34pm (2 hr 3 min ago) Jul 3, 9:34pm (2 hr 3 min ago)
Quoting marcone
{quote} how are we supposed to test something we don't have? Create a test version we can actually test so we can see it work in real time. If you see someone post an image of them entering a trade and you see the post 3 hours later, would you take a trade off of that? I wouldn't. The market conditions can change on a dime. Especially if Trump opens his mouth. I'm seeing some lines plotted on a chart, some go up, some go down. Sometimes the plotted line stops. Like the gbp line in blue stops while the red line cad keeps plotting along(image with...
I have been posting the screenshots as soon as the plot appears. You can check the timestamp on the screenshots. But you're right, I need to make it publicly available for testing. The issue is, other than you and one other person, no one else seems interested in testing it. I don't want to go through the trouble of making a website, posting the indicator, and possibly posting the EA that makes the entries, if there isn't sufficient interest. I don't want to put in effort for nothing.

Your post is the one I like most, because you're offering insight into how you viewed using the indicator, which is interesting. I hope the previous message clarified that it shouldn't be read in the slope of the line way. Those characteristics are there to create the adaptive time decay and the other obfuscations needed to push back against big money, not to be traded on directly.

In any case, I am currently working on making it available publicly, but I want to mention in advance that if the tool proves useful to you, there will eventually be an exchange of value. I provide the research, and you provide some reasonable fee to access that research. It's simply an exchange of value. Realistically that very reasonable access fee won't happen for weeks, or months, if ever. This is just a heads up that if I'm providing the indicator, and possibly the entries EA, there should be an exchange of value for it.

I've been trying to integrate Bitcoin and Gold into the indicator, but I'll try to make it available on a site so that maybe people could start testing it starting Monday to provide feedback. I want to emphasize, I'm posting it for free testing in order to get feedback on it. If there's nothing, then I'd probably remove it, since it doesn't make sense to use up computing resources on a website and so on for nothing.
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