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The Market Is Tricky

  • #121
  • Jul 3, 10:03am (8 hr ago) Jul 3, 10:03am (8 hr ago)
EUR struggles to go into profit.
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  • #122
  • Jul 3, 11:14am (7 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:14am (7 hr ago)
Quoting Rickblaise
{quote} I can’t figure out where to find a currency strength indicator you built it yourself ? Cause when I type currency strength search if gives like battery level bars
you can get one from fx blue. It's free to use on both mt4 and mt5. You can also adjust the timeframe you want to look at. For example, i set mine to m1,m5 and m15 for when i am looking for an entry. It helps but its not a holy grail because at these lower timeframes it can fake you out.
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  • #123
  • Jul 3, 11:18am (7 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:18am (7 hr ago)
Quoting marcone
{quote} you can get one from fx blue. It's free to use on both mt4 and mt5. You can also adjust the timeframe you want to look at. For example, i set mine to m1,m5 and m15 for when i am looking for an entry. It helps but its not a holy grail because at these lower timeframes it can fake you out. {image}
Have you tested it for a while? Is it reliable?
  • #124
  • Jul 3, 11:19am (7 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:19am (7 hr ago)
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{image}
wait. You buy every GBP pair? I thought you'd just pick one out of the gbp basket that seems more volatile. Can i ask why?
  • #125
  • Jul 3, 11:21am (7 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:21am (7 hr ago)
Update on the GBP crosses at 19:00, from the 13:00 computations. The other currencies are in profit about 100 USD, so GBP is the clear winner since the first day of testing.
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  • #126
  • Jul 3, 11:27am (7 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:27am (7 hr ago)
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} If the market is able to F some traders then some traders should be able to F the market back. I don't know how else to say that. I would really like the big money try to unweave and untangele and decipher this one. I think they're going to have to allow some traders to F them back. At this time, I don't think they can get around this one. Too many moving parts, too many entanglements, too many variables that I don't think they can control enough percentage of, of the entire Forex market AUD CAD CHF EUR GBP JPY NZD USD, to keep F'ing some...
We should be able to f them back BUT they have the supply, the super smart algos and the timing of when things actually happen. We can only guess as to what will happen next. We only know that markets have to move. Be it driven by fundamental news events, tweets, war, etc we have to get the correct timing and have the conviction that over time we'll make more than we lose as 95% of retail traders lose their shirts.
  • #127
  • Jul 3, 11:39am (7 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:39am (7 hr ago)
Quoting marcone
{quote} wait. You buy every GBP pair? I thought you'd just pick one out of the gbp basket that seems more volatile. Can i ask why?
Yes and that's by design. That's one of the advantages of v3.0 because big players will generally push one pair around at a time, not an entire GBP's worth of crosses at once. So if v3.0 says GBP strong then that means GBP strong across all the crosses. This is so that when a fake out is designed on any GPB pair, then that engineered pair effectively gets diluted by the other GBP crosses. The GBP basket basically averages out pair level noise. To put it simply, v3.0 is identifying true strength, which is one of the real defenses it has against fake outs.
  • #128
  • Jul 3, 11:43am (7 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:43am (7 hr ago)
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} Have you tested it for a while? Is it reliable?
I would say so. Babypips also has a strength meter so you could look at both to see which is more reliable. You have to keep in mind that if you go down towards the smaller timeframes it becomes less reliable. Gold is a motherfocker.

Quote
https://marketmilk.babypips.com/currency-strength

fxbue has a browser version but also for mt4/mt5. I prefer mt5 version because i don't want to get distracted by something else.

Quote
https://www.fxblue.com/market-data/t...rency-strength

I think this might be the metatrader version:
Quote
https://www.fxblue.com/tools-for-dow...ader-app-suite
  • #129
  • Jul 3, 11:50am (6 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:50am (6 hr ago)
Quoting marcone
{quote} We should be able to f them back BUT they have the supply, the super smart algos and the timing of when things actually happen. We can only guess as to what will happen next. We only know that markets have to move. Be it driven by fundamental news events, tweets, war, etc we have to get the correct timing and have the conviction that over time we'll make more than we lose as 95% of retail traders lose their shirts.
And you're right. I've also built a defense around timing, which matters a lot more than people might realize. Markets are tricky. I don't get how anyone expects to get consistency by researching threads covering basics or public formulas. It's like going into battle with a plastic fork. Markets are tricky, and to meaningfully fight back, people have to try harder than the plastic fork threads I've seen so far in FF.
  • #130
  • Jul 3, 11:51am (6 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:51am (6 hr ago)
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} Yes and that's by design. That's one of the advantages of v3.0 because big players will generally push one pair around at a time, not an entire GBP's worth of crosses at once. So if v3.0 says GBP strong then that means GBP strong across all the crosses. This is so that when a fake out is designed on any GPB pair, then that engineered pair effectively gets diluted by the other GBP crosses. The GBP basket basically averages out pair level noise. To put it simply, v3.0 is identifying true strength, which is one of the real defenses it has against...
Right but if you are wrong, then you are wrong on multiple pairs going against you. If gbp is weak and then temporarily strong then it gets weak again...it becomes a problem. You didn't mention anything about a TP or SL you would use and target.

The reason i was surprised of this is because i watched and learned from old school traders and they look at currency baskets usd, gbp, jpy, etc and if jpy looks strong on most if not all pairs, then they pick one pair from the basket with solid ATR and divide that by 3 hoping to catch 1/3 of the move 10-20 pips and get out and do it all over again tomorrow. This seems to be different. I don't quite understand what to look for and how to implement it.
  • #131
  • Jul 3, 11:53am (6 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:53am (6 hr ago)
Quoting marcone
{quote} I would say so. Babypips also has a strength meter so you could look at both to see which is more reliable. You have to keep in mind that if you go down towards the smaller timeframes it becomes less reliable. Gold is a motherfocker. {quote} fxbue has a browser version but also for mt4/mt5. I prefer mt5 version because i don't want to get distracted by something else. {quote} I think this might be the metatrader version: {quote}
I mean, whatever works. I would just say, try it out, trade it or show where the entries would have been based some timestamp from those public indicators and test it out and see if it works.
  • #132
  • Jul 3, 11:56am (6 hr ago) Jul 3, 11:56am (6 hr ago)
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
Update on the GBP crosses at 19:00, from the 13:00 computations. The other currencies are in profit about 100 USD, so GBP is the clear winner since the first day of testing. {image}
Friday evening is not very good for trading. Everybody that matters in these markets is looking to close up shop and go home for the weekend. Several times the volatility dries up and you get caught in a trade that doesn't go anywhere. Other times they push the market way beyond where anybody thought it could go and if the market closes and you're still in a trade you might have a very nice "surprise" when on monday it gaps against you and not just by a little. Ask me how i know.
  • #133
  • Jul 3, 12:05pm (6 hr ago) Jul 3, 12:05pm (6 hr ago)
Quoting marcone
{quote} Right but if you are wrong, then you are wrong on multiple pairs going against you. If gbp is weak and then temporarily strong then it gets weak again...it becomes a problem. You didn't mention anything about a TP or SL you would use and target. The reason i was surprised of this is because i watched and learned from old school traders and they look at currency baskets usd, gbp, jpy, etc and if jpy looks strong on most if not all pairs, then they pick one pair from the basket with solid ATR and divide that by 3 hoping to catch 1/3 of the...
It might sound like I don't care about risk, but I do, probably more than most people. That's why I watch the floating equity like a hawk and track what drawdown is doing minute by minute. If something feels off about the floating equity, I adjust the strategy.

At the risk of sounding crazy, I manage risk by focusing on accuracy. The more accuracy, the less I need a traditional stop loss.

TP is 1:1 against whatever the floating max loss was. Here the max loss was about 200 USD, so TP would be 200 USD. This is demo, so I'm just letting the basket run. I'm doing my trading now with this v3.0, so I could probably push to 2x the max loss, maybe 3x. It just needs testing before I'd trust it.
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SL is the account itself. When the focus is accuracy, you don't need a large account. Something small like 500 USD to 1K can be enough to generate a decent daily amount.
  • #134
  • Jul 3, 12:16pm (6 hr ago) Jul 3, 12:16pm (6 hr ago)
Quoting marcone
{quote} Friday evening is not very good for trading. Everybody that matters in these markets is looking to close up shop and go home for the weekend. Several times the volatility dries up and you get caught in a trade that doesn't go anywhere. Other times they push the market way beyond where anybody thought it could go and if the market closes and you're still in a trade you might have a very nice "surprise" when on monday it gaps against you and not just by a little. Ask me how i know.
Yes, that's generally the experience. But I think with v3.0 traders might find it different, it just needs testing to see if it works for them. I've been posting indicator screenshots like a madman, but so far nobody's bothered to check it out. Pretty soon I'll be gone. It gets boring posting for no feedback, no testing, no ideas, nothing. Win rate on my entries, pretty okay. Win rate on others analyzing the indicator, 0% haha
  • #135
  • Jul 3, 1:30pm (5 hr ago) Jul 3, 1:30pm (5 hr ago)
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} I mean, whatever works. I would just say, try it out, trade it or show where the entries would have been based some timestamp from those public indicators and test it out and see if it works.
well, since your system is based on currency strength i thought this might help you. On the other thread you said;"feel free to participate". I'm not sure how to interpret or use the images you are showing. Have you tried putting real $ behind it?
  • #136
  • Last Post: Jul 3, 2:13pm (4 hr ago) Jul 3, 2:13pm (4 hr ago)
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} Yes, that's generally the experience. But I think with v3.0 traders might find it different, it just needs testing to see if it works for them. I've been posting indicator screenshots like a madman, but so far nobody's bothered to check it out. Pretty soon I'll be gone. It gets boring posting for no feedback, no testing, no ideas, nothing. Win rate on my entries, pretty okay. Win rate on others analyzing the indicator, 0% haha
how are we supposed to test something we don't have? Create a test version we can actually test so we can see it work in real time. If you see someone post an image of them entering a trade and you see the post 3 hours later, would you take a trade off of that? I wouldn't. The market conditions can change on a dime. Especially if Trump opens his mouth. I'm seeing some lines plotted on a chart, some go up, some go down. Sometimes the plotted line stops. Like the gbp line in blue stops while the red line cad keeps plotting along(image with the rectangle). Then i looked at the usd line and the gbp line and now the usd line is moving up and getting close to the gbp but we don't really know where the gbp line is. Since the usd line is above 0 and going up does it mean we should buy $ and sell gbpusd? From 14.15 til 15.20 gbpusd moved mostly in a tight range of around 10 pips. Nothing to write home about. Maybe it will show something more obvious on more volatile days. idk.
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