Flippin' Sweet Daily Hedges

9/11/2007

I think it's best if I just display the data in in graphical format and you can use it how you see fit, since it can be interperated in different ways.

Attachment #1) 4 HR Deviations from Open Price shows the average 4HR deviation from the Daily Open price and the maximum price deviation(pretty simple).

Attachment #2) Average Daily Ranges from Daily Open Price examines the relationship between the average ranges above and below the Daily Open price.

Attachment #3) Deviations by DOW and 4Hr Periods is two charts which illustrate the average number of times price has retraced back across the Daily Open price during the various 4HR periods and days of the week and the average deviation in pips from the Daily Open price by 4 HR periods and days of the week.

Sept.15: Added Flippin Sweet.MQ4 and Daily Open.MQ4.
Flippin Sweet places four pending orders at pre-determined levels.
Daily Open is an indicator that simply displays a horizontal line at the Daily Open price. It's usefull for visual backtesting.

Sept 19: Replaced Daily Open.mq4 with Flippin Sweet Indi.mq4. New Indicator displays Fibonocci drawn from high and low of previous week as well as Daily Open price. Great for visual back testing!

flippin nice graph! what statistical analysis do you use? and what is Access used for?

The stats are nothing special, just average, high and low values mostly. I leave the more complex stuff to GoodThings. He has a thread where he analyzes probabilities for price retracement to various fib levels. I have little use for things like standard deviations or ztest ect.

I import data files from MT into Access because I can run multiple queries and create summary reports much faster than I could in Excel. Also, SQL is more versitile for doing things like sorting data by day of week then sumarizing other fields within each day. To do that you'd need many worksheets.

BTW Tuesday has the lowest daily range for the last 3 years by almost 20 pips compared to the other days. Friday just edges out Thursday. Like I said, I want to do more studies. If you have any requests, let me know. See what I can do.

man after my own heart, i would love to get ahold of some of the queries that you run on access!

OK. I've posted the Access Database I used to gather the data for the chart I posted in the first post.(GBP_USD_04_07)
It too is nothing special. Simple parameter queries that do things like return all days when the price moves from open to a high '>19 And <30' pips. I then copy and paste the query, make changes to the parameters and rename it. A similar procedure is then used to create reports which sort by day of week then calculate average, minimum and maximum values for each day. That's hard to do in Excel.

When I worked for a local savings and loan, I automated a series of a dozen or so queries with VBA to 'massage' data from the old mainframe system before Y2K. Now that was difficult and took days of trial and error, checking and double checking.

I have several spreadsheets I used recently, but they are boring in comparison and don't make for 'soft and fuzzy' charts. I'm going to limit the attachments to include only the best and prettiest stuff. I'll just summarize the other stuff as I see fit.

MM

Four new charts with explanations have been added to the first post in this thread. Any questions, request or suggestions for new price studies are welcome.

A word document of a sample strategy and background info has been added to the first post. More studies to come next week.

thanks for continuing to post, I am going to get to this and study it, just been a busy week

Daily Open was 2.0196. The SellStop order was lowered to 2.0145 shortly after original order placement, just beyond significant support @ 2.0151. This point is also below 4HR channel support. I expect the channel to hold. If not I'm done for the week.

This is the third time that price barely hit one order and reversed to hit the opposite and stop me out for +50 pip loss. Yesterday I tried to trade my way back to even and ended up compounding the loss. That's why I'm still testing. I saw the same situation in the backtests from last year in September and October.

Some of you are wondering why I would post bad trades perhaps? Well,
I don't cherry pick. I don't sugar coat. And I don't blow smoke up your chimney. It's really VERY simple. You get stronger by first accepting your week points and secondly by working on them.

That's all till next week. Now let's watch the insanity around news time and after things settle down perhaps the market will show us where it wants to go next.

I need to trust my intuition more and not always stick to the strategy. After all, it's not a system and is supposed to have some flexibility.

When I saw the perfectly shaped 4HR channel, I said to myself, "ah, this is too good to pass up." That's the same as too good to be true. I can't remember how many times perfectly shapped patterns have failed in the past. One must remember the true nature of this market. It's dog eat dog.The central banks aren't in business to make us small speculators wealthy, it's the other way around. Here's how I see what happened:

The big dogs saw all the little dogs linning up their longs based on the fundementals and the technicals and decided it was time for a big supprise party. This party was called London Bankers falling down. Oh, I know there's many economists who will argue that it is indead a BIG problem and scared many BIG money people out of their long johns, but the timming of the bad news hitting the fan is suspect and the world has known for weeks that many banks world wide would be affected by liquidity problems. Actually, the timming of the news release was perfect. Long lb/$ orders were beginning to pile up and as we know now, the US news Friday was not good for the $ and would have likely caused it to drop hard and fast. Need I say more?

Now, the price of a pound (of flesh) is much lower than it was last Thursday (much more attractive to the big dogs), small speculators are confused (as usual) and the price will continue to chop it's way back up to where it should be in the first place, only this time the market will be much lighter (less speculator baggage). I could be wrong of coarse. As soon as significant gains against the dollar are happening, another bank could announce it's untimely demise, just in time to provide yet another 'soft landing'.

Moral: The big dogs want to eat us!

Hello. Thank you for that divided.
I utillize alike strategy successfully.
But I am large 0 in programming.
you would not could to lay out expert or indicator which canalizes.

Hi Dm,
Glad to hear you use alike strategy. Please tell me more.

I currently use a simple expert to place orders only. I'm working on modifications to the strategy and as I verify them to be good I will slowly add them to the expert. I also have indicators that I use to do visual backtesting. I'll post the expert and one indicator on the 1st post of this thread with other attachments.

enjoy,
MM

Well, I'm not going to say I told you so, but I'll show you instead. Not because I want to gloat, but as reinforcement of the things I said about the need for flexibility in a strategy.

Experience has taught me to be skeptical of what I hear in FX and to me the GBP was oversold just before major USD data releases. The timing of bad news from GB was too perfect and it had the desired effect of softening the blow of the bad economic news from US the next morning. As we know now, the market finally awoke to the reality of the overall situation and the GBP is back on track.

OK, back to the business of flippin' pips. Last week I temporarily abandoned my flippin' strategy and patiently waited for the market to start moving up again. Without going into detail I will say it was well worth the risk. I'm currently running three demo accounts: One for LT position trading, one for ST position trades and one for Flippin' Pips. By doing this I can get more experience in a shorter time and weigh the results of three different strategies simutaniously.

Intrest in this thread has diminished so I don't see any point in going further. For now, I'll leave you with this simple advise.

Keep your stick on the ice and your eyes on the goal, but be ready to pull yourself back up if you get knocked down unexpectedly. That's FX, hey?