Relative Movement

The Big Picture

Global capital is constantly rotating. Money moves between equities, bonds, commodities, and currencies depending on the macro regime. Rather than trying to capture directional moves, Relative Movement aims to identify the nature of the regime, then only take trades structurally aligned with that regime.

Regime Identification

First, I identify and monitor ratio-spreads ie Instrument A divided by Instrument B. I choose relevant instruments in which by comparison I can infer where capital may be leaning through their movement relative to one another. The ratios do not tell me the price or value of anything. Aligning multiple ratios gives a window into regime expression in real time without having to follow lots of data sets. When they align, I consider that a regime being expressed within the Relative Movement framework and therefore a tradeable environment.

Relating an instruments movement to another through ratio spreads can have a range of results. Two instruments can signal macro expressions, whilst the comparison of execution instruments can determine the best performer in certain regimes, thus maximising the potential for profit and drawdown reduction.

For example. For US Equities. I can compare:

HYG/IEF (High Yield Corporate "Junk" Bond ETF at 7-10 year duration to US Treasuries at 7-10 year duration).
I use this comparison as a proxy for credit appetite in the US. The yield of high performing but risky corporate bonds vs low yielding but safe US treasuries. When riskier bonds are outperforming safer bonds, I generally interpret that as a more risk-on credit environment.

SP500/DXY (SP500 Index vs Dollar Basket Index).
I use this comparison as a broad gauge of liquidity conditions in the market. The SP500 rises for many reasons, though I tend to view long-term appreciation as being helped by the gradual debasement of fiat currencies. If the US dollar begins to outperform the SP500, I interpret that as dollar strength increasing and the long-term tailwind from currency debasement becoming less supportive for equities, which I consider bearish. A stronger dollar can coincide with tighter financial conditions and may eventually feed through to weaker earnings growth.

SP500/SXY (SP500 Index vs Swiss Franc Index).
I use this comparison as a broad gauge of fear sentiment. The swiss franc is a safe-haven currency. It gains strength during periods of financial stress and increasing fear. When this outperforms the SP500, it can often indicate that appetite for risk is decreasing and may suggest increasing demand for defensive CHF exposure.

When all three align, I consider it a highly tradeable regime expression.

I trade US equities and Global equities, commodities and duration. I can compare SP500/EEM (Sp500 vs Emerging Markets Index) to distinguish where capital is flowing and decide where to allocate risk. To me, this is what makes Relative Movement compelling; it can very quickly isolate both strength and regime.

The point of this thread however will be to journal my trades or at least my expressions in the market. Ill make updates regarding thoughts on the market as well as positions, this wont be a copy signal thread as focus will be on expressing the market macro.

To determine strength through the ratio spreads I use my very own "Release" indicator. It attempts to distinguish a binary balance between bullish and bearish conditions through percentages to be consistent through multiple different instruments and ratio spreads. I will be uploading pictures of what I see.

Regarding execution, as a regime trader I have always struggled with execution but as an old student of Architecture, I found it rather easy to find technical structure. After years of testing and trading, I've found value in both approaches. The way I structure my trades then follows like this. Let's say 100% of the position is our total. 25% represents the initial regime expression once my ratio spreads align. When these macro expressions are gaining momentum on all relevant ratio spreads, I add an additional 35%. So now I have a general regime-on or regime-off position, followed by a second position intended to capture regime acceleration. A final 40% is added from separate context which is the execution chart itself confirming momentum from our regime. This 40% position has a trailing stop which is loose when momentum is strong and tightens to near structure when it begins to turn. This means I have three distinct positions, each with its own reason for existing. I always use a Guaranteed Stop Loss Order on my trailing position, as I will likely hold through weekends.

Okay I think that's probably enough for the head comment. I can answer questions if you're interested in my strategy, regarding my trading history.
Separate background history: I began approaching trading systematically in April 2024.. Doing a live demo in September 2024 til Dec 2025 and then going live in 2026 Jan. My strategies changed a lot in that time but Relative Movement hasn't changed much since going live, more so experimenting on the range of instruments I can trade. Relative Movement has recently sharpened its risk management to retain both aggression and defensiveness. I don't yet know what its long-term return profile looks like, but I'm confident in its potential for profitability, as so far the return profile has been relatively steady despite a fairly turbulent market environment. I don't feel comfortable putting my balance online and I am not sure how consistently my executions will post, I am not particularly interested in building a following, proving anything, or maintaining a public track record. I'd like this thread to more so be a macro demonstration of these ratio spreads with some executions spiced in.

So well Ill just answer for today briefly to catch up to date. US Equities are risk off for now. EM Equities are risk on, both in their basic regime expression of 25% and 40% for trailing stop. When EMB/IEF gains momentum (continued strong saturated blue line, not purple), maybe even as soon as tomorrow, ill add the remaining 35% of potential total exposure. My instrument choice right now is Taiwan. Emerging markets are beating SP500. But Taiwan is beating emerging markets. Taiwan is also a constiuent of the emerging market index, it is within it. So EEM strength is due in part to Taiwan and Kospi out performance. Kospi is South Korea and is RAM Manufacturing influenced whilst Taiwan is TSMC semi-conductor. Kospi is beating Taiwan but I cant trade it unless as an ETF which has certain risks. Gapping, timezones, availability, min requirements for guaranteed stop loss. It's just not good execution wise. Kospi beating Taiwan suggests that memory more important than chip manufacturing suggesting that AI is scaling data centres rather than a race to produce smarter chips, which makes sense when you look around. So watching Taiwan, specifically watching EEM regimes to develop momentum for additional risk. Maybe i'll get stopped out or one of the regime gates will slide. All 3 need to be aligned for regime on. Relative movement is very strict but enables high quality trades. Thats all for now.

Relative Movement 19/06/26

Current Regimes:
EEM Risk On

Active Positions:
Taiwan - 25% Base Pos + 40% Trail Pos, no regime momentum position.

Capital favoured chart:
Taiwan

Capital Chain Strength:
Taiwan > EEM > SP500

Comments:
Yesterday expected further EEM growth. Pullback on taiwan instead. Trailing stop has adjusted due to decline of taiwan release steepness. I have moved up the stop loss and in fact would like to move it up higher to just below consolidation but the market is currently closed. Stop loss adjusted to below 4hr structure. Will need to monitor dollar strength over the coming days. Potential short opportunity forming on US Equities if credit begins to roll over on HYG/IEF.

*gonna try formatting my comments and macro statements for ease of reading going into the future.*

Relative Movement 22/06/26

Current Regimes:
EEM Risk On

Active Positions:
Taiwan - 25% Base Pos + 40% Trail Pos, no regime momentum position.

Capital favoured chart:
Still Taiwan

Capital Chain Strength:
Taiwan > EEM > SP500

Comments:
Taiwan has continued to rally. Regime and Trail position still live. Starting to see emerging bonds gaining a little bit of traction. If it opens strong tomorrow I will likely add the regime momentum position of 35%. Letting the stop loss breathe a bit as release indicator is showing momentum on instrument. This will tighten if it goes red and flatlines.

US equities still underperforming the dollar and will need to outperform EEM in order to have any traction for potential trades. Relative movement has done a great job so far of isolating where capital is moving. Since my entry on the 12th, Taiwan has had a 9.89% move whilst SP500 is 0.80% to now. I will never exceed 1:1 with Taiwan however when I have full expression of risk on. I attached a screenshot from my excel file showing my maximum risk relative to certain indexes and commodities. As you can see their is a wide scaping risk profile. All of that is to balance the volatility profile of those instruments. Going forward, watching EMB/IEF. Gonna see if copper makes a recovery against the dollar.

silly side note* the colours of my chart are inspired by the non existent dragons breath opal. god i wish they were real.

Relative Movement 23/06/26

Current Regimes:
No Regime

Active Positions:
No Positions

Capital favoured chart:
No Distinct Capital Flow

Capital Chain Strength:
-N/A-

Comments:
Pullback on Taiwan today. GSLO Trailing stop hit for 1.51% Gain and Regime Position closed due to failure to hold on EEM/DXY leading to an additional 1.17% Gain. Definitely could of got an extra 30 points or so on my Trailing position for a 2% gain but overall a total of 2.68% Gain on Taiwan in 10days with incredibly low drawdown potential. Going forward from this trade what can be pointed out. Relative risk on Taiwan will be increased from a total of 1:1 to 1.25. Small marginal increase in risk. Okay so what else. Recent reform to momentum regime position was a recent decision and missed on a potential 1.55% gain. This move would of occurred during the strongest part of this move. The momentum regime position is one of the strictest positions with its own trailing GSLO. If this position fires in the true best periods then it may actually end up justifying more risk. Right now I am journaling the strength of my edge and aggressive risk plays are not really necessary and may disrupt consistency of execution. When the edge is proven I can increase my risk. Im starting to realise that this strategy, though still technically a swing style strategy is very much shorter term based, almost a middle ground between day-trading and swing-style trading, which I am really enjoying. It also has very low drawdown potential which also potentially limits its upside. But what I am leading to is that this strategy may be well adjusted for a an easy prop firm evaluation if it continues to perform like this. A simple and worthwhile side route if I ever wanted to increase my potential to gain profit without leveraging my risk on my main live account. What I would really like to see going forward is a non equity regime, something like a copper short or gold long to test the edge further. I am so far satisfied with its equity performance. Oh yeah and I think i might be a little more aggressive with my trailing stop especially going into the night. This pullback occurred during the Asia session, that's the trade off with global market trading. So going forward will have to adjust for that. Ill respect wicks and structure until we get clear new highs and a newer formations.

Ive attached pictures demonstrating the Emerging market window of the 3 ratiospreads. Ive also attached US so you can see there is still no triple alignment thus no trade. Whats interesting is liquidity is contracting, fear is potentially rising all the while the EM bonds gapped lower. So even on the 4 hour charts theirs some clear hidden sentiment expressing itself through 3 distinct and seperate ratiospreads.