Relative Movement

The Big Picture

Global capital is constantly rotating. Money moves between equities, bonds, commodities, and currencies depending on the macro regime. Rather than trying to capture directional moves, Relative Movement aims to identify the nature of the regime, then only take trades structurally aligned with that regime.

Regime Identification

First, I identify and monitor ratio spreads ie Instrument A divided by Instrument B. I choose relevant instruments in which by comparison I can assume where capital is leaning through their movement relative to one another. The ratios do not tell me the price or value of anything. Aligning multiple ratios gives a window into regime expression in real time without having to follow lots of data sets. When they align, that is a confirmed regime and a tradeable environment.

Relating an instruments movement to another through ratio spreads can have a range of results. Two instruments can signal macro expressions, whilst the comparison of execution instruments can determine the best performer in certain regimes, thus maximising the potential for profit and drawdown reduction.

For example. For US Equities. I can compare:

HYG/IEF (High Yield Corporate "Junk" Bond ETF at 7-10 year duration to US Treasuries at 7-10 year duration).
This comparison tells us the credit appetite in the US. The yield of high performing but risky corporate bonds vs low yielding but safe US treasuries. When riskier bonds are outperforming safer bonds, we can assume that credit appetite is risk on as bonds are one of the backbones of credit.
SP500/DXY (SP500 Index vs Dollar Basket Index).
This comparison tell us the current state of liquidity in the market. The SP500 rises in bull markets but rises over time mainly due to the debasement of the US Dollar.
If the us dollar begins to outperform the SP500, that signals that dollar strength is increasing and thus reducing annual debasement, which is everyone's asymmetrical long edge, a bearish signal. A strong dollar reduces debasement, whilst increasing the likelihood of rate hikes which weakens corporate profits and eventually shows in earnings reports.
SP500/SXY (SP500 Index vs Swiss Franc Index).
This comparison tell us the current state of fear sentiment. The swiss franc is a safe-haven currency. It gains strength during periods of financial stress and increasing fear. When this outperforms the SP500, it is a great indication that appetite for risk is decreasing and fear is being financially accounted for through CHF hedging.

When all three align, you have a very tradeable regime expression.

I trade US equities and Global equities, commodities and duration. I can compare SP500/EEM (Sp500 vs Emerging Markets Index) to distinguish where capital is flowing and decide where to allocate risk. This is the power of Relative Movement. I can very quickly isolate strength and regime.

The point of this thread however will be to journal my trades or at least my expressions in the market. Ill make updates regarding thoughts on the market as well as positions, this wont be a copy signal thread as focus will be on expressing the market macro.

To determine strength through the ratio spreads I use my very own "Release" indicator. It tries to distinguish a binary balance between a bullish and bearish environment through percentages to be consistent through multiple different instruments and ratio spreads. I will be uploading pictures of what I see.

Regarding execution, as a regime trader I have always struggled with execution but as an old student of Architecture, I found it rather easy to find technical structure. My determination through my years testing and live trading is that both are good. The way I structure my trades then follows like this. Let's say 100% of the position is our total. 25% Will be for the pure long term macro expression when my ratio spreads align. When these macro expressions are gaining momentum on all relevant ratio spreads, I add an additional 35%. So now I have my general binary regime is on or off, then I have a regime is surging position. A final 40% is added from separate context which is the execution chart itself confirming momentum from our regime. This 40% position has a trailing stop which is loose when momentum is strong and tightens to near structure when it begins to turn. This means I have 3 distinct positions all with high quality merit for why they exist. I always use a Guaranteed Stop Loss Order on my trailing position, as I will likely hold through weekends.

Okay I think that's probably enough for the head comment. I can answer questions if you're interested in my strategy, regarding my trading history.
Separate background history: I started officially try harding (virtually everyday) since April of 2024. Doing a live demo in September 2024 til Dec 2025 and then going live in 2026 Jan. My strategies changed a lot in that time but Relative Movement hasn't changed much since going live, more so experimenting on the range of instruments I can trade. So far I've made around 80% this year. I made some aggressive oil plays but they were of a very rare opportunity. Relative Movement has recently just sharpened its risk management to retain both aggression and defensiveness. I am not entirely sure of its annual rate of return but id like to say I am confident that it could potentially beat hedge funds. I don't feel comfortable putting my balance online and I am not sure how consistently my executions will post, I am not really trying to gain "trader status" nor truth/accountability. I'd like this thread to more so be a macro demonstration of these ratio spreads with some executions spiced in.

So well Ill just answer for today briefly to catch up to date. US Equities are risk off for now. EM Equities are risk on, both in their basic regime expression of 25% and 40% for trailing stop. When EMB/IEF gains momentum (continued strong saturated blue line, not purple), maybe even as soon as tomorrow, ill add the remaining 35% of potential total exposure. My instrument choice right now is Taiwan. Emerging markets are beating SP500. But Taiwan is beating emerging markets. Taiwan is also a constiuent of the emerging market index, it is within it. So EEM strength is due in part to Taiwan and Kospi out performance. Kospi is South Korea and is RAM Manufacturing influenced whilst Taiwan is TSMC semi-conductor. Kospi is beating Taiwan but I cant trade it unless as an ETF which has certain risks. Gapping, timezones, availability, min requirements for guaranteed stop loss. It's just not good execution wise. Kospi beating Taiwan suggests that memory more important than chip manufacturing suggesting that AI is scaling data centres rather than a race to produce smarter chips, which makes sense when you look around. So watching Taiwan, specifically watching EEM regimes to develop momentum for additional risk. Maybe i'll get stopped out or one of the regime gates will slide. All 3 need to be aligned for regime on. Relative movement is very strict but enables high quality trades. Thats all for now.