Only - SPCX

Thought i would start a forum for discussions regarding SPCX since its going to be relevant for the next few months

Regardless of peoples opinions on Musk and SpaceX this launch of this IPO has opportunity written on it. Likely the start could be similar to a meme coin and i suspect the price will be directly severly effected by Musks actions and anything he speaks about at this point. Price will most likley be bullish in the long term untill this hype arond it slows down and poeples attention moves esle ware. For now i will mostly be treating it like a mean coin a looking for long positions i can hold with low risk.

Musk is a master of marketing. He sells dreams. SpaceX's current valuation is a reflection of what the company will be like in 10-20 years.

Current valuation is mostly due to certain market mechanics: The name cannot be shorted (or sold at some brokers by retailers who got pieces pre-IPO), certain funds have to buy the name and further funds (index funds) will have to buy it some time later, when the name is included into indices, and also private equity owners currently are prohibited from selling (lock-out period). It will take about a year until all these shenanigans are worked through, and also "earnings" come in.. Then we will see.

You're right. The tight float and inclusion in the Nasdaq100 create an artificial supply demand squeeze right now. The real test comes later this year as the tiered lock-up periods expire and shares start hitting the market. Fundamentals will eventually rule

The mechanics point is the most important one here - tight float, lock-up periods, index inclusion forcing passive buying. These are structural drivers that can keep price elevated well beyond what fundamentals would support.

I think the tricky part for traders is that when mechanics are doing the heavy lifting, it easy to confuse "this is working" with "my read on this is right."

That gap between price is moving and understand why is where most of the risk sits. Especially once lock-up periods expire and the real supply picture becomes clearer.

SpaceX stock is going down. I'll wait until it drops to $140, then it'll be a good opportunity to buy at a low price