why go long at that level?
Dont hope for a big breakout. They are very dangerous in this business.
Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain
- #764
- Sep 1, 2007 6:13am Sep 1, 2007 6:13am
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
Hi SL,
Let me share with you how I use this info (triangles/wedges) in my trading.
triangles is a trend- continuation formation anyway".
Worst case scenario, price touches 3700 and reversed.
I placed a buy order at 1.3700.
Price went up to 1.3718. Stop loss moved to 1.3668 (50 pips trailing stop).
Price retraced. Stop loss got hit.
If I dont have a position at 1.3600, I wouldn't take the 3700 trade. I'll wait till price close higher than 3700 on Friday.
Hope this helps. :-)
Hi luqmanz,
thanks. Yes it's definitely more clear.
See, I wanted to hear at least something like what you wrote: it's a trend continuation for you, you've found this to work before, you integrate this into your trading plan, you would only take it if you have some profit to "finance it with" and you have a contingency plan / worst case scenario.
You also said - and this in turn sounds sensible as well - that you'd have waited for a close above it without a position first and not traded the "spike out" without the initial position.
See, that sort of thing sounds a LOT more sensible to me than "godsend, once every few months".
I am trying to make people think and realize they do or don't have reasons / a foundation for the trades they see and take, because one of my own main downfalls being entering something I have no really good reason for.
Again, I am trying to learn and teach from this that no setup = no trade.
(also boils down to the WAIT for a setup maxim)
If you KNOW this formation, if you've known it to work and how it works, it's a setup for you(demo or live, no matter, but you've experienced it). If you do not, then you're throwing pebbles at the sea, hoping to fill it.
I need a reason for a trade to keep my faith in it, I need to know it's "bounds" (where it starts to feel "wrong" and where it gets "activated" => entry, stop placement) and what I can expect from it roughly(risk/reward, price projection) so that it's actually "worth taking" and so that I can put my FAITH in it.
One last thing - you yourself said that "normally"(with no initial position) you would have waited for break confirmation with a close outside. So what makes your current profit so expendable that you didn't think it more sensible to wait in this situation as well?
Had you seen this move and behavior without seeing the triangle, would your behavior / trade handling have gone differently?
Which way of dealing with the setup, if it is one for you, is the more profitable/sensible one and does it change merely by the outset of your open positions or is it a self-contained logic each time, regardless of whether what you have already have open before it or not?
Nothing of the above meant as an insult, but as thought provoking.
I'm trying to help with what I do.
If people perceive it as ridicule, picking on them or sarcasm etc, then at least most of the time(I CAN be an ass, too, np, I just try to keep that side locked in the basement 99% of the time) they are most likely just not open to this realization/possibility.
May the force be with you luq ;D
Jacko, I apologize for wasting the space with this to your trading irrelevant post in your journal.
SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #765
- Edited 4:06pm Sep 1, 2007 3:18pm | Edited 4:06pm
One last thing - you yourself said that "normally"(with no initial position) you would have waited for break confirmation with a close outside. So what makes your current profit so expendable that you didn't think it more sensible to wait in this situation as well?
Had you seen this move and behavior without seeing the triangle, would your behavior / trade handling have gone differently?
Which way of dealing with the setup, if it is one for you, is the more profitable/sensible one and does it change merely by the outset of your open positions or is it a self-contained logic each time, regardless of whether what you have already have open before it or not?
Nothing of the above meant as an insult, but as thought provoking.
The Fiber had been ranging between 3600 and 3700 for a few days and I've been making some profit from that.
From my experience, triangles/wedges is only reliable 50% of the time.
But since I can lose 0 pips (worst case) by taking the risk, it looked attractive to pyramid. This kind of opportunity dont come very often and it (pyramiding) had worked for me a few times.
In a ranging market, its hard for trend-trader to make money, let alone building profitable pyramid. But I had a chance to build a pyramid in a ranging market (50% possible breakout) at 0 pips cost. Too tempting.
On second thought, it would be more sensible (and easier) to just wait for the confirmation (Daily candle close). But by waiting, I need to give up the chance to pyramid.
That's what I was thinking about back then.
- #766
- Sep 3, 2007 9:05am Sep 3, 2007 9:05am
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
Hi Jacko,
I've been looking over the EURUSD chart a bit and I'm wondering whether you're looking at either 1.3550 or 1.3500 to buy again.
1.3500 in particular to me seems to be a good spot, since much below that and I would get doubts about EURUSD's strength, and at that point I see what is a great r/r for a shot towards 1.3850 and 1.4 if we are to reach it in the current attempt.
I'm currently a bit of two minds about where we are going, since I also have the option for a move lower, but currently if I see a long setup there, those are the two rough buy zones I'd consider.
One a nice 50%(of this last upswing), the other a nice round number.
Would love to hear your opinion on how the current market feels / appears to you
Best regards,
SeekingLight
I've been looking over the EURUSD chart a bit and I'm wondering whether you're looking at either 1.3550 or 1.3500 to buy again.
1.3500 in particular to me seems to be a good spot, since much below that and I would get doubts about EURUSD's strength, and at that point I see what is a great r/r for a shot towards 1.3850 and 1.4 if we are to reach it in the current attempt.
I'm currently a bit of two minds about where we are going, since I also have the option for a move lower, but currently if I see a long setup there, those are the two rough buy zones I'd consider.
One a nice 50%(of this last upswing), the other a nice round number.
Would love to hear your opinion on how the current market feels / appears to you
Best regards,
SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #767
- Sep 3, 2007 9:35am Sep 3, 2007 9:35am
- Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Hi All
This is my opinion and i think it agrees somewhat with seekinglight's
The bearish drop from 1.3830 to 1.3358 mid August had occured at the right time only it dropped way to fast, since then we have seen a rise to a point were a more expected short TL could be seen, the pair is now ranging until it hits this TL once more when a drop to around the 1.3550 - 1.3525 should be seen. this will correct the rappid fall and set us on our way long from there.
sorry about the image couldn't get it to move over. but hope you get my point.
this is only my opinion and have not been trading that long,
I've been stopped out at 1.3610 so I am waiting for the 1.3560 to clear so i can A-H, I will be patient (my biggest problem)
This is my opinion and i think it agrees somewhat with seekinglight's
The bearish drop from 1.3830 to 1.3358 mid August had occured at the right time only it dropped way to fast, since then we have seen a rise to a point were a more expected short TL could be seen, the pair is now ranging until it hits this TL once more when a drop to around the 1.3550 - 1.3525 should be seen. this will correct the rappid fall and set us on our way long from there.
sorry about the image couldn't get it to move over. but hope you get my point.
this is only my opinion and have not been trading that long,
I've been stopped out at 1.3610 so I am waiting for the 1.3560 to clear so i can A-H, I will be patient (my biggest problem)
- #768
- Sep 4, 2007 8:53am Sep 4, 2007 8:53am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2005 | 2,899 Posts
Starting in the next week or so it will be closed to posting except for an elite group who can discuss serious trade issues. You'll know who they are by the little icon (see below).
The rest of us can watch, and, hopefully, ask questions in a sub-thread.
thanks Peter
- #771
- Sep 4, 2007 12:03pm Sep 4, 2007 12:03pm
- Joined Mar 2004 | Status: Magic Man | 3,220 Posts
Relax and be happy.
- #774
- Sep 7, 2007 6:40am Sep 7, 2007 6:40am
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Pip Slappa Extrordinaire | 1,013 Posts
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
- #776
- Sep 7, 2007 10:18am Sep 7, 2007 10:18am
- Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
- #779
- Sep 9, 2007 7:21am Sep 9, 2007 7:21am
- Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts