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Directions please? :what ive been doing

  • #21
  • Sep 3, 2007 12:43am Sep 3, 2007 12:43am
What kind of trader do you think you are/will be ricardo?

Im really touched for the kind offer Bill, thats really above and beyond!

You know lately I have been retracing the old forex education from when I started, going over it and finding new gems. When I started 4 or so months ago it was all very greek to me, but slowly it started to stick. Demo trading was the best teacher in this way because it let me see how things actually work and figure them out. Now when I go back the suggestions on different ways to use the basics make just so much more sense eh? Perhaps less is more after all.
The only stupid question is the one not asked
  • #22
  • Sep 3, 2007 6:01am Sep 3, 2007 6:01am
Happy you've done much better than I did by sticking to that demo in the first place. I went live too soon and lost my 'marbles' (pun intended )to play after a little over a year. If this can be of any help, stick to demo and treat it as a hobby for as long as you can, until you find that trading is second nature for you, that you have found your way in this tough business. Bear in mind that for you to make money thousands of others must loose, so just try to think that the stage you are at only means that there are thousands other newbies who pay into the market one day you can profit from. Your job is to stay in the game as long as it takes to reach that level. That means that you have to conserve your capital for the time when you can start making money and not loose it all along side the thousands others. Also bear in mind that we all have to pay the brokers for the priviledge of trading. A good read is Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. Read it twice at least. Also do visit my blog at http://flyingmoney.blogspot.com to see what NOT to do. I've posted there for two years now and it has been the best tool for me in the learning process.

good luck
  • #23
  • Sep 3, 2007 6:50am Sep 3, 2007 6:50am
Quoting Happyguy
--you know on that note its always seemed like such a bad idea to use the robotic EAs to control your money. Idealistic to just have a computer do your work for you, but Ive never seen a ea that actually works to any degree.

--fundies ( which are longer term) --never heard of this Ill read up on it if i can find anything

I sort of hear ya: Its like instead of going on an extreme to the left or the right make your own path. ---bad to be too mechanical or fluid in any case.

Hi Happy...

Fundies is short for Market Fundamentals...ie, Economics
Visit the News section here and also the Calendar pages. On the Calendar page, to the far right of an announcement....you will notice a small box, click on that and a pop up window will appear giving info concerning that particular announcement.

Hope that helps
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #24
  • Sep 3, 2007 10:52am Sep 3, 2007 10:52am
Quoting Happyguy
What kind of trader do you think you are/will be ricardo?
Hmmm I think I've been taking the swing trading path.....though I also hear those intraday charts calling me, I'll make a decision and I'll go live at some point during October or November...I'm currently looking for brokers where you can trade micro lots, so I'm thinking about Oanda or FXsol...

Quoting billflet
Ricardo

Awesome signature! Haven't heard munsoned in a while.
he he, well I didn't knew what to write in there, and I was watching "kingpin" on TNT...
"I say high, You say low, You say why, and I say I don't know..."
  • #25
  • Sep 3, 2007 10:58am Sep 3, 2007 10:58am
Hey Ricardo,

My opinion, if it helps you choose a broker.....I'd go with Oanda, if for no other reasons than the spreads.

I use them as one of mine.....it seems you are not going to trade news, from what I can tell.....so the spreads at news shouldn't be a concern.

To be fair, I know nothing else about FXsol, only that spreads are higher.

Hope that helps
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #26
  • Sep 3, 2007 11:07am Sep 3, 2007 11:07am
Quoting FxJarhead
Hey Ricardo,

My opinion, if it helps you choose a broker.....I'd go with Oanda, if for no other reasons than the spreads.

I use them as one of mine.....it seems you are not going to trade news, from what I can tell.....so the spreads at news shouldn't be a concern.

To be fair, I know nothing else about FXsol, only that spreads are higher.

Hope that helps
Thanks for the tip, I've been asking at the brokers forums about Oanda and their spreads and I see that it only happens around news, so that shouldn't be a problem. FXsol seems ok but like you said the spreads are higer so I'm almost sure that I'll finally go with Oanda.
"I say high, You say low, You say why, and I say I don't know..."
  • #27
  • Sep 3, 2007 5:56pm Sep 3, 2007 5:56pm
This may be a little off the central forex topic, but are any of the other trading markets any easier to make money (and as much) on?
Stocks, options, equities, futures, etc...
I never really research into anything else. I noticed technical analysis seems to apply to pretty much all of them. I was swayed to forex because it seems the least voltile: a stock may bottom out and die, but never if ever does a currency sputter and die.

+it seems you can start forex with less capital: a big plus.

so ultimately im askin you guys why choose forex? is my question here....
The only stupid question is the one not asked
  • #28
  • Sep 3, 2007 6:55pm Sep 3, 2007 6:55pm
Quoting Happyguy
This may be a little off the central forex topic, but are any of the other trading markets any easier to make money (and as much) on?
Stocks, options, equities, futures, etc...
I never really research into anything else. I noticed technical analysis seems to apply to pretty much all of them. I was swayed to forex because it seems the least voltile: a stock may bottom out and die, but never if ever does a currency sputter and die.

+it seems you can start forex with less capital: a big plus.

so ultimately im askin you guys why choose forex? is my question here....
One of the biggest attractions to forex is the allowable leverage. You can begin with less capital partly because of the leverage and partly because of nanolots and microlots. Not to mention usually no commission, just the spread.
When trading stocks you will pay the spread + commission. Here, in forex, you can take a $50 position for the cost of the spread. I trade stocks also and use Scottrade. I pay a spread, which is not fixed, plus 7$ in and 7$ out. Makes a $50 dollar position out of the question.
Granted the actual price in forex may not seem volatile but when compounded by leverage, even 10:1, the picture changes drastically. You can blow your account very quickly here.
However, stocks are also a dangerous game when approached with little capital. Here in the U.S. you will need a 25k account to trade intraday. Anything less and you will be holding positions overnight. Now your dealing with daily opening gaps.
So, in short, Forex will give you the most bang for your limited buck. And that biggest attraction, stupidly high allowable leverage, is the very thing that makes this so dangerous.
From my own experience I would say you'll be able to learn your lessons faster in forex, simply because the ability to play with small lots will allow you to participate more--with real money in small amounts that is.
As far as futures and options, I'm not qualified to comment but there are many here who are.
No matter what road you take it is a long one. Give this time and focus. When you succeed at one market, that's the time to expand into others. Besides, you'll then have MM, discipline, and your trader instinct developed.
One of the truest posts I've read was posted by Micro Minnie. I think.
A journey of a thousand miles starts out with a flat tire and a broken fan belt. Or something close to that.
  • #29
  • Sep 4, 2007 2:23am Sep 4, 2007 2:23am
Thanks again for all your thoughtful replies


----
Ok heres what im doing: 90% just me screwing around on my own/backtesting/etc.

I threw out all my indictators... I had like 20 on each chart... getting kinda rediculous.
Now I ask myself what is essential:
Bollinger bands- I use the constriction/opening of the size of the outer bands as good signals for entry points- just before break aways.
-stochs- always a good idea to be clued into overbought/oversold.
-moving averages- finally a 365 and 175 moving average to try and grasp at trends. Only way I really know how: when 175 is above 365 its heading up, when 175 is below its going down.

This is the part im proud of thats looking pretty sweet... and making my charts cluttered up again. Im plotting my own support and resistance. First i go to a max zoomed in monthly chart: plot important support resistance, these have the most weight.
Pick a diff colour, go to weekly also max zoomed in, plot important S+R lines that didn't show up before.
Repeat it with daily charts, then my 4 hour charts. Note: by the time I got into 4h I only had to make a couple of lines, most were already covered.

Im not sure how amateurish this all sounds, but now I look at my chart and feel like I can see whats going on so much clearer.
-In addition to basic candlestick patterns, chart patterns (double bottom/ head and shoulders/etc), price action patterns (james16), etc its feelin a bit clearer.
The only stupid question is the one not asked
  • #30
  • Sep 4, 2007 3:19am Sep 4, 2007 3:19am
Quoting Happyguy
-stochs- always a good idea to be clued into overbought/oversold.
I've kept out of this so far as the 1KT input has been excellent. So the only thing I'd like to add a qualification to is your use of Stochastics as Overbought/Oversold.

Be careful with this. I've attached an image of Cable (Daily chart) from mid-June to the end of July. You can see it shows Overbought all the way through that period, so trying to short the market during this run could have cost you money.
Attached Image
  • #31
  • Sep 4, 2007 3:43am Sep 4, 2007 3:43am
Quote
Originally Posted by Happyguy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
-stochs- always a good idea to be clued into overbought/oversold.

Stochs are useless. Who is to determine whether a market is overbought and oversold? certainly not a silly mathematical formula! In trending markets, price could remain overbought/oversold according to the Stoch for weeks.
  • #32
  • Sep 4, 2007 4:35am Sep 4, 2007 4:35am
Quoting Happyguy
Is it actually possible to earn my 100 pips a week?

Is this really worth it? im getting kind of fed up and burnt out with forex. Im starting to wonder if its all just gambling and guessing. I suppose painful drawdown will do that to anyone. (when i was up 300% i was feeling super high).

Thank you kindly for your time and thoughts
Yes, it is possible but I personally don't even focus on pip account. There are times where I can actually have a negative pip count for the month but still be profitable (dollar and percentage wise) It's all about your money / risk management. Everything in life is basically a gamble but you just need to find something that will put the odds in your favor and give you that edge. And as for indicators, me personally I don't like them and never use them anymore. They lag too much for my liking but I have created many profitable systems with indicators in the past so I'm not saying that they can't work because they can. But again, I just don't like to use them personally and I prefer to trade naked. And with the draw downs, get used to it because it's all part of the game. Best of luck and don't give up!
  • #33
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:24am Sep 4, 2007 5:24am
Quoting WTB
Stochs are useless. Who is to determine whether a market is overbought and oversold? certainly not a silly mathematical formula! In trending markets, price could remain overbought/oversold according to the Stoch for weeks.
You're right of course, and I wish I'd been less gentle in my reply
  • #34
  • Sep 4, 2007 10:04am Sep 4, 2007 10:04am
Quoting PeterFM
You're right of course, and I wish I'd been less gentle in my reply
Gentle but persuasive. Your chart says it all.
Thank you Peter!
  • #35
  • Sep 4, 2007 9:43pm Sep 4, 2007 9:43pm
Quoting WTB
Stochs are useless.{Additional comment here. Post # 31}
Wrong. They are not useless when you understand them. Admittedly, they are not promoted in their best light.
  • #36
  • Sep 5, 2007 2:24am Sep 5, 2007 2:24am
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=44759

Why make all kinds of complicated systems? this one when backtested looks like it makes consistent pips with minimal drawdown.
Sure it lags, and it misses alot of the movement, but it seems to make consistent profit with small drawdown (this is just based on backtesting)

All you need is a small amount of pips somewhat reliably and proper money management and you have yourself a good plan.

Consistency seems so much more than quantity in forex, why not just do something this rediculously simple? I am under/over thinking this?
I dismissed EMA cross-over systems as too simple/not good enough early on.... I find myself asking why after all again
The only stupid question is the one not asked
  • #37
  • Sep 5, 2007 5:22am Sep 5, 2007 5:22am
Quoting Bemac
Wrong. They are not useless when you understand them. Admittedly, they are not promoted in their best light.
Bemac, please elaborate a little bit further on your view about Stochs. I am genuinely interested as I myself have never found them useful (but then again I never found ANY indicator useful).

Thank you in advance.
  • #38
  • Edited Sep 7, 2007 3:01am Sep 5, 2007 5:47am | Edited Sep 7, 2007 3:01am
Quoting WTB
Bemac, please elaborate a little bit further on your view about Stochs. I am genuinely interested as I myself have never found them useful (but then again I never found ANY indicator useful).

Thank you in advance.
I'm always careful when second guessing Bemac, but there is a method of treating stochs as a way of judging the weak traders and fading them when holding onto a major trend determined by the stronger traders.

I'll also be interested in his reply, so we wait with bated breath
  • #39
  • Sep 6, 2007 9:15pm Sep 6, 2007 9:15pm
Quoting Happyguy
Thanks ricardo, I never really noticed that 1kt thing before, but now i wonder how i never did notice it

Come to think of it I prefer the idea of trading trends, but always thought they were something out in the ether. Ive never been able to tell the diff between a retracement and a total reversal of the trend. I dont "really" have the internalized logic of trend trading clicked in my head anymore than elliot wave.

Ive been using large -like 365 sma to see what the big picture is, but its not been very helpful.

Ive got some reading to do then, any good sources for studying the nature of trends you guys could point me towards? ---though inevitably ill probley come across some stuff on my own.

thanks again everyone
Hi,
I too like Ricardo's post, very informative.
I am by no means, a seasoned trader, but I have learned a lot in the last few months.
In the beginning I would try things like MA crosses, etc. I have learned that price does not follow indicators, indicators follow price.
The interaction of indicators with price is repetitive. Learn to recognize these repetitive patterns.
Speaking for myself, I have found some MA's useful for determining phase of a market, For instance, bull trend, bear trend, possible trend reversal. In particular I find the 62 EMA very useful. It almost seems to act as natural support or resistance.
I learned this by spending countless hours studying charts.
Some people trade without any indicators at all. Simply using trendlines, support and resistance.
You don't have to be an expert, but an understanding of candle patterns is helpful.
Then, there's also trading psychology. Psychology comes into play when you are trading with real money, weather its .10 a pip, or 100.00 a pip.
BTW, you would be very surprised by what a system starting with .10 a pip,
and working your way up to 10.00 a pip, as your acct balance increases, can amount to in 2 years.
A couple of good resources IMHO, are 5 13 62, its a free Ebook found on Rob Booker's website. Another good website is babypips.
Hope this helps.
  • #40
  • Last Post: Sep 7, 2007 11:39am Sep 7, 2007 11:39am
Quoting Bemac
Wrong. They are not useless when you understand them. Admittedly, they are not promoted in their best light.
I use stochs only for trading divergence, in a non-trending market.
For instance, If I see bearish divergence on the macd, the stoch must be oversold. I will enter on the close of a bearish candle, and the fast line of the stoch coming out of oversold.
Works about 70% of the time.
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