Compounding the Edge / Trading Journal

Trade Recap

1. Trade 20: -1R

A full -1R loss on an unsuccessful long attempt.
The trade developed over nearly a full week. I was triggered in during the early hours of last Tuesday following a clean and valid entry setup. After initially moving slightly into profit, price gradually bled lower over the following days before eventually hitting my stop loss this Monday.

There were no emotions attached at any point—just a well-defined setup, executed according to plan and managed exactly as intended.

From a process standpoint, this was flawless execution.
A loss financially, but a clear process win.

On to the next one.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 21: +2R
2. Trade 22: -1R
3. Trade 23: -1R

Due to the Easter holidays and a week-long vacation at the beautiful Baltic seaside, I’m posting a recap of my last three trades with a slight delay.

Trade 21
The first trade of April was a textbook setup. Following a double H4 fractal manipulation and a strong, impulsive break to the upside, I entered at an H4 imbalance located in the discount zone of the current bullish H1 A–B leg—an ideal location for long positioning.
The trade required patience, taking five days and a weekend hold, but ultimately reached the full 2R target.

Trade 22
On Tuesday, April 7th, I entered a short position based on a valid signal. At the time, I was still holding the long trade, but my strategy allows for simultaneous positions in opposite directions, so there was no rule violation.
This trade was quickly invalidated, and price hit my full stop loss within approximately two hours.

Trade 23
The third trade came last Thursday after an H4 fractal sweep at a key location, following the mitigation of two higher timeframe POIs—a daily imbalance and a weekly inverse imbalance.
I observed three pushes into a supply area, with the final push sweeping previous high and delivering an aggressive break of structure to the downside. This was my confirmation, and I entered at a freshly formed H4 FVG.
Unfortunately, the trade did not follow through, and price hit my stop loss later that same evening.

Summary
Not an ideal sequence of outcomes, but all three trades were executed flawlessly and aligned perfectly with my playbook.
After three trades, April currently sits at 0R net, following one +2R winner and two -1R losses.
The focus remains unchanged: process over outcome.
I stay positive, disciplined, and ready to take advantage of whatever opportunities the market presents next.

Let’s stay focused and keep executing.

March 2026 Recap

March closed as a green month, both in terms of monetary return and—more importantly—execution and trade management discipline. This remains my primary focus at this stage.
It was a relatively active month with 9 trades taken.
The only real downside was one missed opportunity (detailed in post #18). I’ve already taken lessons from it and implemented steps to prevent similar situations in the future.

March Stats

1. Trades: 9
   (Above the monthly average of 7.5)
2. Winning trades: 3 (+6R)
3. Losing trades (full): 3 (-3R)
4. Losing trades (partial): 2 (-0.9R)
5. BE trades: 1 (-0.1R)
6. Net result: +2R

(This result is below the historical March average (+3.2R over the past 14 years since 2013), with only 5 years performing worse. It also marks another below-average month compared to the overall monthly average of +3.5R, making it the fifth consecutive sub-average month.)

1. Win rate: 33%
   (Well below the long-term average of 46% and the March average of ~47%)
2. Average SL: 61 pips
   (Above the long-term average of 48 pips)
3. Average hold: 1 day
   (Excluding entry day; below the average of 2.2 days)
4. Weekend holds: 4 trades
   (Nearly double the monthly average of 2.2)

Summary
While it’s encouraging to see a positive month following a negative February, the overall performance is still below expectations.
After three months, 2026 stands at +3.5R total, with an average of +1.2R per month—significantly below the expected value.

That said, I fully understand that periods like this are part of the game. In a way, I’m actually glad this phase is happening early in my journey. It’s a direct reminder that expected returns are not delivered consistently month-to-month, and that even a full quarter of underperformance is entirely possible.
This period is teaching me patience, resilience, and discipline.

Despite the number of losses, every winning trade feels rewarding and reinforces my belief in the system. It’s a constant reminder that the next winner is always just one trade away—as long as I remain consistent and disciplined.

Equity Update
Following the plan outlined in my initial post, I added 10,000 PLN (~$2,700) to my trading account on April 1st.

This follows my predefined rule:
If Q1 closes positive in R, I scale up the account to accelerate equity growth.
The next planned deposit will come after a successful H1 close of Q2. If the account balance exceeds the starting level of approximately 21,500 PLN, I will add a final 10,000 PLN, bringing the total capital to 30,000 PLN (~$8,200).

From that point forward, the focus remains unchanged:
execute the strategy, compound consistently, and grow the account toward 1,000,000 PLN—and eventually 5,000,000 PLN, at which stage I plan to reduce compounding and begin withdrawing profits.

Mindset Takeaway
March reinforced that progress in trading is not linear, but discipline must be. Even during a prolonged period of below-average performance, sticking to the plan without hesitation or emotional interference is what builds real consistency. The edge does not disappear during drawdowns—it simply goes through cycles of variance.
My role is not to question it in the moment, but to execute it with precision and patience.
As long as I continue to show up and perform at a high level, the results will eventually align with the data.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 24: -1R

A full -1R loss on an unsuccessful short attempt.
The new week opened with a gap down, followed by an H1 break of structure, suggesting a potential reversal after an H4 fractal manipulation at higher-timeframe POIs.

I initially placed a sell limit order at the nearest H1 imbalance. Price came into that FVG multiple times during the early hours of Monday—three separate touches—but, frustratingly, I was not triggered into the trade.
When I returned to the charts around 8 AM CET, I noticed the missed entry and decided to execute manually, accepting a slightly worse entry (around 3 pips difference). I wasn’t willing to miss a valid setup over such a small discrepancy.
Price then consolidated throughout the London session, and once New York opened, it began to move decisively to the upside, eventually hitting my stop loss around 8 PM CET.

It’s naturally frustrating to log another loss—this makes it three in a row, especially given the initial bearish context with the gap down.

That said, there are no emotional attachments here. The setup was valid, execution was solid, and I maintained a professional, disciplined approach throughout.

Another process-driven trade completed.

On to the next one.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 25: -1R

Another full -1R loss on an unsuccessful short attempt, closing out a difficult week.
This one stings more than usual. It marks the fourth consecutive loss, pushes the account below the initial deposit for the first time since January, and deepens April’s performance to -2R.
That said, the trade itself was executed flawlessly.
A clean sell signal, a properly placed pending order, and no interference throughout the trade. I let it play out fully, without emotional involvement—exactly as planned.

Missed Opportunity
What made today particularly frustrating was a missed long opportunity.
I had a pending buy order set following an H4 fractal low sweep and H1 bullish structure shift, placed at a freshly formed H1 FVG. Price came extremely close—missing my entry by less than half a pip—before exploding to the upside with a strong bullish H1 candle that would have hit 2R almost instantly.
Had that trade been triggered, the day would have ended positive despite the losing short.
But it didn’t happen—and that’s a perfect example of market unpredictability on a trade-by-trade basis. Even the most logical and “obvious” setups can behave differently than expected.

Reflection
All I can do as a trader is execute my strategy flawlessly and keep showing up.
Right now, the system is clearly going through a period of unfavorable variance. It’s not comfortable, but it’s part of the game. Periods like this are where discipline is truly tested.

I remain fully confident that better conditions will return. The only requirement is to stay consistent, act professionally, and never deviate from the plan.

Current Position
I am currently in a long trade based on the same setup that initially resulted in the missed opportunity.
Since the first entry was not triggered, I followed my rules and entered at a new H4 imbalance—exactly as defined in my backtesting.
This is a key rule: if the initial FVG is missed, I wait for the next valid one and execute there.

At the moment, the trade is in drawdown. Price has recently manipulated multiple H4 fractal highs and is showing signs of a potential Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution pattern to the downside, which could invalidate the setup.

However, that is irrelevant to my decision-making. A valid signal was printed, and I am obligated to take it. I do not predict—I react.

A tough end to the week, no doubt.
Let’s see what the remainder of Friday brings—and then it’s time to reset and enjoy a well-deserved weekend.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 26: -1R

The long trade mentioned in my previous post unfortunately ended at full stop loss (-1R).

As noted earlier, I was aware of the potential for a downside reversal following a triple H4 fractal high sweep and the formation of an AMD pattern. Despite this, I chose to stick to my strategy and not deviate based on opposing signals.
From an execution standpoint, I’m very satisfied—this was another clean, disciplined trade. However, the result extends the current losing streak to five consecutive losses, matching my longest streak to date.
Statistically, having two separate 5-loss streaks within just 26 trades is quite rare—roughly a 1.5%–2% probability, or about 1 in 50 such sequences. Uncommon, but entirely possible—and that’s exactly what’s playing out.

Reflection
2026 continues to test my resilience and discipline.
Despite the difficult run, my mindset remains unchanged: full commitment to my edge and flawless execution. The market can do whatever it wants—I won’t deviate.

That said, the numbers are what they are:

1. April currently sits at -3R
2. The account is in approximately 8.5% drawdown after three and a half months

It’s frustrating, no doubt. But at the same time, I’ve become somewhat desensitized to short-term losses, which helps me stay objective and focused.

Looking Ahead
A pending sell order was placed on Friday evening following the same triple H4 fractal manipulation and a confirmed H1 market structure break to the downside—a valid signal according to my playbook.

Now it’s a matter of execution and patience.
There is still a possibility of extending the losing streak further. Statistically, reaching a new longest streak (6 losses) within 27 trades sits around 7–8% probability—again, unlikely, but well within expectations.

A tough week, but the approach remains the same:
stay disciplined, stay consistent, and keep executing.

Let’s see what the remainder of April brings.

Backtesting Update

I’ve now completed my backtesting by extending the dataset back to 2013, bringing the total to 13+ years of data across a wide range of market conditions—bullish, bearish, ranging, and unique environments like the COVID period.
After investing hundreds of hours into this process, I now have a deep understanding of my strategy, its edge, and its nuances.
Let’s break down the numbers.

Core Statistics

1. Total period: 13.3 years (159 months)
2. Total trades: 1,185
3. Average trades/month: 7.5

Trade Breakdown:

1. Winning trades: 543 (+1R) → 3.4/month
2. Full losses: 463 (-1R) → 2.9/month
3. Partial losses: 105 → 0.7/month
4. Break-even trades: 75 → 0.5/month
5. Win rate: 46%

Performance Metrics:

1. Total net gain: +553.5R
2. Yearly average: +39.5R
3. Monthly average: +3.48R
4. Expectancy: 0.47R per trade

Trade Characteristics:

1. Average hold time: 2.2 days
2. Longest trade: 46 days
3. Average weekend holds: 2.2/month
4. Average SL: 47.9 pips

Monthly Distribution

1. Winning months: 122 (77%)
2. Losing months: 21 (13%)
3. Break-even months: 16 (10%)

Best Months (Top 6)

1. October 2025: +12.3R
2. February 2013: +11R
3. November 2018: +10.8R
4. August 2021: +10.2R
5. February 2014 / April 2025: +10R

Worst Months (Top 6)

1. November 2015: -4R
2. April 2024: -2.8R
3. May 2016: -2.6R
4. December 2022: -2.4R
5. August 2015: -1.8R
6. April 2021: -1.4R

Additional Observations

1. 100% win rate months: 3
2. 0% win rate months: 1 (December 2022)
3. High activity months (10+ trades): 25 (16%)
4. Low activity months (≤5 trades): 27 (17%)
5. Outlier: January 2024 (13 trades)
6. Lowest activity: 3 trades in 3 separate months

Seasonality Insights
Top-performing months (avg R):

1. October: +4.87R
2. September: +4.22R
3. June: +4.2R
4. February: +4.11R

Weaker months:

1. November: +1.92R
2. December: +2.3R
3. July: +2.72R
4. April: +2.78R

→ 7 months outperform the average, 5 underperform

Streaks & Variance

1. Longest winning streak: 26 months (Dec 2016 → Jan 2019)
2. Second longest: 23 months

Interestingly, the worst stretch between these included:

1. Feb 2019: -0.5R
2. Mar 2019: 0R
3. Apr 2019: -1R

→ Total drawdown: -1.5R over 3 months
Notably, there are no extended multi-month losing streaks beyond this—an important insight into how the system behaves over time.

Yearly Performance

Best Years:

1. 2025: +76.2R → monthly avg gain of 6.3R & 1 losing month
2. 2017: +59.9R → monthly avg gain of 5R & 0 losing months
3. 2014: +45.6R → monthly avg gain of 3.8R & 1 losing month

Worst Years:

1. 2013: +25.7R → monthly avg gain of 2.1R & 2 losing month
2. 2024: +26.2R → monthly avg gain of 2.2R & 3 losing months
3. 2015: +35.1R → monthly avg gain of 2.9R & 4 losing month

2026 so far:

1. +3.5R (Jan–Mar)
2. ~+1.2R monthly average
3. With April currently negative, the year is close to flat

Integrity of Data
Every single trade in this dataset:

1. Was taken using identical rules
2. Was logged in real-time simulation (no hindsight bias)
3. Reflects how I actually trade

No cherry-picking, no skipped losses, no hindsight entries.
There would be no value in cheating—only long-term damage.

Final Thoughts
If I get access to earlier data (2012), I will extend this further. Backtesting not only validates the strategy—it builds conviction.

This dataset gives me complete confidence in my edge.

For any trader, I strongly believe this is non-negotiable:
Data builds belief
Belief enables execution
Execution unlocks results

Without this foundation, it’s far too easy to second-guess, hesitate, or jump between strategies.
This process has eliminated that for me.

Over and out.

Backtesting Update – Strategy Continuation

With the help of AI, I ran a deeper analysis of my trading strategy using 13 years of historical data.
The goal was not to optimize or modify the strategy, but to objectively measure risk, stability, and long‑term scalability — and then evaluate how this edge behaves as capital and life constraints evolve.
Below are the key findings.

Drawdowns and Risk Behavior
All drawdown statistics are calculated on the cumulative daily equity curve, using only trading days and preserving true chronological order.

1. Maximum drawdown: −6.65R
2. Longest drawdown by time:
   1. 78 calendar days
   2. 22 trading days
   3. Period: March 12, 2024 → May 28, 2024
   4. Lowest point within this period: −5.65R

This distinction is important:

1. the deepest drawdown was −6.65R,
2. the longest recovery phase below equity highs lasted 78 days.

Both remain well within controlled and survivable limits.

Key Metrics (Snapshot)

1. Sortino ratio: ~0.94
2. CVaR 95% (Expected Shortfall): ~−1.0R

Rolling Sharpe (annualized):

1. 3 months: min ~1.2 | median ~5.4 | max ~12.5
2. 6 months: min ~3.2 | median ~5.6 | max ~8.4
3. 12 months: min ~4.3 | median ~5.8 | max ~6.6

Profitability, Stability, and Scalability
These metrics confirm that the strategy produces a stable, repeatable edge.
Losses are tightly controlled, tail risk remains limited, and rolling performance does not collapse across market regimes.
This profile is closer to prop‑level or institutional systems than to typical retail approaches.

In short:
this is an edge that can be scaled responsibly.

Monte Carlo Summary – What the Numbers Suggest
To complement the historical backtest, a Monte Carlo analysis was run using 10,000 simulations based on the same trading logic and real historical distribution of results.
The purpose of this exercise was not to forecast exact future outcomes, but to quantify time, risk, and variability during the capital‑building process.
All simulations assume:

1. unchanged trading rules and execution,
2. a consistent risk framework during the growth phase,
3. realistic tax drag applied during early growth,
4. fixed operating costs applied once capital exceeds a predefined threshold.

Time to Capital Milestones
Across the simulated paths, the following median timelines emerge:

1. Time to reach 1M PLN / $275k (after taxes): ~26–27 months
   Most paths cluster between roughly 2 and 3 years, with a relatively tight dispersion.
2. Time to reach 5M PLN / $1.375M (after taxes and fixed costs): ~40 months
   That corresponds to approximately 3–4 years from start.
3. Time from 1M PLN to 5M PLN:
   Median outcome is close to 12 months, with slower paths extending toward ~18–19 months and faster ones completing the transition in under a year.

This confirms that the journey to scale is driven mostly by distribution and risk control, not by a small number of outlier months.

Expected Equity Path During the Build‑Up
Median equity development inferred from the simulations:

1. After 1 year: ~130k PLN / $35.7k
2. After 2 years: ~700–750k PLN / $200k

Dispersion is wide — as expected — but the central tendency remains stable.
Tax timing influences the speed of growth, not the underlying expectancy.

Drawdowns to Expect Before Reaching 5M PLN
The simulations indicate that meaningful drawdowns are not an exception, but a structural feature of the process:

1. Median maximum drawdown: ~−30%
2. Typical range: roughly −25% to −35%
3. Adverse paths can temporarily exceed this range without invalidating the long‑term outcome.

In practice, this means that even successful trajectories spend extended periods recovering from prior peaks.

Time Spent Below Equity Highs (Underwater Periods)
Another insight concerns time risk, not just monetary drawdown.
Across the paths that eventually reached 5M:

1. Equity drops below its prior high dozens of times during the journey.
2. The longest single underwater stretch typically spans the equivalent of several months of trading activity.
3. Longer multi‑month periods below highs are not rare and should be considered normal, not pathological.

This highlights why psychological resilience and process discipline are at least as important as raw expectancy.

Winning and Losing Streaks
Trade‑level statistics from the simulations suggest:

1. Longest winning streaks: typically in the range of 5–7 trades
2. Longest losing streaks: also 5–7 trades, with longer runs appearing in the tails

Well‑defined risk per trade ensures that such streaks remain survivable, provided position sizing is respected.

Interpretation
Taken together, the Monte Carlo analysis reinforces several high‑level conclusions:

1. The path to large capital is not smooth, even when expectancy is strong.
2. Drawdowns, long recovery periods, and clustered losses are inherent features of the distribution.
3. Success is primarily a function of risk consistency, patience, and structural discipline, not short‑term optimization.

These properties make a strong case for separating:

1. a high‑risk compounding phase, and
2. a later lower‑risk extraction phase,

while also acknowledging that taxation and operating constraints can materially influence outcomes depending on when they apply.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 27: +2R
2. Trade 28: BE

Finally—the 5-trade losing streak is over. It felt like an eternity, with the last win recorded on April 2nd, almost a full month ago.
Great to see a green result again, and hopefully this marks a shift back toward more favorable conditions.

Trade 27 – Winning Trade (+2R)
I’d be lying if I said this one was smooth. It was also my longest trade to date, lasting over 8 days!
After the initial bearish move, price stalled just short of my higher-timeframe POI and liquidity target, then pulled back significantly. This created a counter-trend buy opportunity (which I also took), but it made the short trade feel drawn out and somewhat frustrating to sit through.
Price continued to test my patience, even into the following session, but eventually delivered and hit the full 2R take profit this morning.

This trade was a great reminder of the importance of:

1. Patience
2. Trusting the process
3. Allowing trades the time they need to develop

Holding through the noise without interfering was the real win here.

Trade 28 – Break Even
The long trade mentioned above was taken despite my bearish bias—because a valid signal was printed. No hesitation, no deviation.
For a while, the trade looked promising and had a real chance of reaching TP. However, price reversed after tapping into an inverse NWOG, which acted as a clear turning point.
The following morning, my stop loss was hit at near breakeven (≈ -0.1R), which I classify as BE.

Importantly, price action allowed me to reduce risk after an H1 fractal sweep and new higher high, confirming that my risk management rules worked exactly as intended.
A very clean, process-driven trade—one I would take every single time.

Summary
April has been challenging, but this sequence:

1. Broke a month-long losing streak
2. Delivered a clean win
3. Reinforced confidence in both execution and risk management

I remain optimistic, disciplined, and ready for whatever the market brings next.

On to the next one.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 29: BE
2. Trade 30: BE

Break-even trades are relatively uncommon in my system, so having two in a row is definitely unusual. In fact, counting Trade #28, this marks the first sequence of three consecutive break-even trades in over 13 years of backtested data.

Of course, break-even outcomes are preferable to losses, but they also further flatten the equity curve and delay meaningful growth. Looking at the recent results, it’s honestly impressive how aggressively the market has been testing my resilience and discipline. An occasional winner appears here and there, but the majority of recent trades have resulted in either losses or near-flat outcomes.

That said, there is nothing I can do about it.
The market does not care whether I want to build generational wealth or not. Its role is simply to facilitate buyers and sellers. I am merely a speculator operating within that environment with a strategy that has a statistical edge. My only responsibility is to execute flawlessly whenever a valid signal appears.

And that’s exactly what I did in both of these trades.
Execution was clean, management was disciplined, emotions remained under control, and I gave both setups every opportunity to develop fully.
Unfortunately, neither delivered a full win this time.

Both trades came very close to target—missing TP by approximately 0.3R and 0.22R respectively. Slightly painful to watch in real time, but emotionally I’m becoming increasingly detached from individual trade outcomes. That emotional distance is intentional and necessary if I want to remain stable once position sizes and floating PnL eventually reach significantly larger levels.
In many ways, this difficult stretch is becoming excellent psychological training.

April summary coming shortly.

April 2026 Recap

April closed with a -1R loss for the strategy. While this is obviously not the outcome I was hoping for and the equity curve remains flat—or even slightly declining—it is still reassuring to see that even during difficult periods, the system does not produce catastrophic drawdowns.

That said, when looking deeper into the data, the current picture is undeniably challenging.
April marks the second negative month of 2026 and the third negative month within the last six months. Based on my 13+ years of backtested data, this is statistically the weakest period the strategy has experienced so far.

Over the last six months, the system has generated only +4.7R net gain, translating to an average of just +0.8R per month—a very poor result relative to expectations. Additionally, the average win rate in 2026 currently sits at just 31%, making this the weakest year in the dataset dating back to 2013.

Looking specifically at the first four months of each year to date, the comparison paints a very clear picture of the difficult period the strategy is currently experiencing (below are the TOP 4 weakest years (Jan - April)):

1. 2026: +0.6R monthly average
2. 2024: +0.6R monthly average
3. 2019: +0.9R monthly average
4. 2015: +1.2R monthly average

For contrast, the best four-month start in the dataset :

1. 2025: +6.7R monthly average
2. 2014: +7.3R monthly average

Despite how frustrating the current stretch feels, the historical data provides perspective and reassurance. Difficult periods have happened before, and they eventually ended.
The best example is the transition from:

1. 2024: +26.2R total yearly gain
   to
2. 2025: +76.2R total yearly gain

A nearly threefold improvement in yearly performance.

This reinforces something I keep reminding myself:
The only thing fully under my control is execution.
My responsibility is to remain disciplined, protect my mindset, and continue executing the edge exactly as tested.

April Stats

1. Trades: 9
   (Above the monthly average of 7.5)
2. Winning trades: 2 (+4R)
3. Losing trades (full): 5 (-5R)
4. Losing trades (partial): 0
5. Break-even trades: 2 (0R)
6. Net result: -1R

This result is below the historical April average of +2.8R (2013–2025), with only two Aprils performing worse and two matching the same result.
It also marks the sixth consecutive below-average month relative to the long-term monthly expectancy of +3.45R.

Additional Metrics

1. Win rate: 22%
   (Well below the long-term average of 46%)
2. Average SL: 49 pips
   (In line with the long-term average of 48 pips)
3. Average hold: 2 days
   (Excluding entry day; aligned with the long-term average of 2.2 days)
4. Weekend holds: 2 trades
   (Exactly in line with historical average)

Performance Summary
Although April ended negative from a monetary standpoint, I consider my personal performance excellent.
I executed every valid setup, managed trades according to plan, and did not allow emotions to interfere with decision-making. Even during prolonged underperformance and multiple consecutive losses, I remained disciplined and process-driven.
That is the real victory from this month.
This period is strengthening my resilience, reinforcing my discipline, and helping me continue developing into the type of trader I aspire to become—professional, systematic, and emotionally stable regardless of short-term outcomes.

I genuinely believe that if I continue operating this way, the equity curve will eventually follow.

Let’s see what May brings.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 31: -1R
2. Trade 32: -1R
3. Missed Opportunity

The market continues to test both my discipline and resilience, delivering two consecutive full losses immediately after a sequence of three break-even trades.
To make matters worse, I also missed a valid winning setup due to being too fixated on a bullish bias.

Both losing trades were textbook examples of my standard setup:

1. H4 fractal manipulation
2. H1 market structure shift
3. Entry at a freshly created imbalance

The first trade failed relatively quickly, while the second developed into a weekend hold before ultimately stopping me out this afternoon. Unfortunately, price action never presented an opportunity to reduce risk on that position.

Missed Opportunity
While I was still positioned long, a valid sell signal was printed following:

1. an H4 fractal high manipulation,
2. an H1 break of structure to the downside,
3. and a bearish weekly open gap.

When I sat down at the charts Monday morning, I immediately recognized the setup and even marked the potential entry at the freshly created imbalance. However, I didn’t execute.
Normally, I have no issue taking opposing trades simultaneously when my strategy allows for it, but this time something held me back.
Whether it was the frustration from Friday’s loss or simply being overly attached to the bullish scenario, I hesitated—and hesitation cost me.

What makes it even more frustrating is that price returned to the exact H1 imbalance again on Tuesday around 8 AM CET, giving me a second opportunity to enter, and once again I passed.
Ironically, the trade nearly stopped out twice, missing my SL by less than half a pip. Depending on spread conditions, I might not have survived the trade anyway. Watching price then travel all the way to my intended target after being spread-stopped would have been painful.

But that’s irrelevant.
The frustration comes not from missing a 2R winner, but from failing to execute a valid signal despite having full trust in the system. That realization shows me there is still mental work to do—specifically around complete detachment from bias and unconditional execution.

Reflection
I still try to keep perspective.
Since January, this is only the second missed trade caused by conflicting bias:

1. 2 missed executions in 30+ trades

Considering I’m still early in my trading journey, that’s honestly not catastrophic.

More importantly:

1. no revenge trading,
2. no emotional outbursts,
3. no overleveraging,
4. no impulsive decision-making.

So while there’s still room to improve, I also recognize the progress being made.

Current Situation
The account is now back below the initial deposit level and sits around a 10% drawdown.
May currently stands at -2R, while 2026 overall has slipped to approximately -1.4R net.
Difficult numbers, no doubt.

But despite everything, I remain optimistic. At some point variance will normalize, and the edge should begin reverting closer to its long-term mean. When that happens, those stronger 3–4R months should start appearing again.

Until then, the mission remains unchanged:
Stay disciplined. Execute flawlessly. Keep showing up.

On to the next one.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 33: -1R

A relatively quick loss following an unsuccessful attempt to long EURUSD after a classic setup: H4 fractal manipulation and a H1 structure break at a key higher-timeframe POI (daily imbalance).
This was a completely textbook setup, so there was absolutely no hesitation and no emotional interference involved in the execution.

One interesting issue occurred on the technical side. With a relatively tight 17-pip stop loss, I was unable to open the intended 5% risk position size. As a result, I had to reduce exposure and ended up risking approximately 4.3% instead.
It appears that with sub-20 pip stops, account margin limitations may prevent me from deploying full intended risk. Definitely something to keep in mind going forward.

Reflection
Following another full loss, the account has now slipped deeper into drawdown and currently sits around 17,150 PLN, approximately 15% below deposit.
Obviously, this period is massively frustrating.

At the same time, I remain surprisingly calm and optimistic about the future. A huge amount of credit goes to my wonderful wife, who continues to support me and reinforce a positive mindset despite this difficult stretch.

The reality is simple:

1. the strategy has been thoroughly backtested,
2. the edge is statistically proven,
3. and my job is simply to continue executing and grinding through unfavorable variance.

I genuinely believe the data will eventually assert itself. Markets move in cycles, and so does performance.

For now, the focus remains unchanged:
stay disciplined, stay process-driven, and keep executing.

It is what it is.
Ready for the next one.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 34: BE (-0.1R)
2. Trade 35: -1R

This week closed in the red with two long trades taken against the broader bearish market structure that has been in place since last Monday.
Both setups were fully valid according to my playbook and formed at a key higher-timeframe POI — the inverse New Week Opening Gap from early March.

The first trade managed to reduce risk and eventually closed at near break-even, while the second attempt ended in a full loss.

That now makes 8 consecutive trades without a winner — a combination of break-even trades and losses.
Well… it is what it is.

Current Situation
The account currently sits at approximately 16.1k PLN, representing:

1. roughly 20% drawdown from total invested capital, and
2. around 25% drawdown from the equity high.

There’s no point pretending this is easy psychologically. Experiencing a prolonged negative stretch like this is painful, especially when the effort, discipline, and execution quality remain consistently high.

At the same time, I remain surprisingly optimistic and fully committed to the process.
I have absolutely no intention of abandoning the strategy, searching for a new system, or second-guessing the edge simply because variance is currently unfavorable.
I trust the data.

More importantly, I trust the amount of work that went into gathering and validating that data over more than 13 years of backtesting.
Whenever periods like this occur, I go back to the statistics and historical performance to ground myself emotionally and reinforce perspective. Difficult stretches are part of the game. They are rare, uncomfortable, and emotionally draining — but they are also completely possible within a profitable system.
And historically, once those drought periods eventually end, winners begin stacking up quickly and the equity curve starts climbing again.

For now, my mission remains simple:

1. stay disciplined,
2. act professionally,
3. follow the strategy exactly as tested,
4. and keep executing without hesitation.

See you after the next one.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 36: -1R
2. Trade 37: -0.6R

Another two losing trades, both perfectly executed and fully aligned with my playbook.

The first one, a long trade, was triggered at a freshly created New Week Opening Gap following a H4 fractal low manipulation at a key higher timeframe POI.
While this trade was still active, a sell signal was printed after a H4 fractal high manipulation and an H1 market structure shift to the downside. Price action on this second trade allowed me to reduce risk at one point, which ultimately prevented a full loss when the market reversed aggressively higher.

EURUSD overall has been moving sideways since mid-May, and price action remains very choppy. These are far from ideal trading conditions, but my playbook does not include a market condition filter. I backtested the strategy across 13 years of varying environments — strong trends, ranges, volatile periods, and prolonged consolidations — and the edge proved profitable through all of them.
Because of that, there is no merit in suddenly changing how I trade or deciding to skip setups altogether.

My job remains simple: execute when a valid signal is printed.

The account is now sitting at roughly a 26% drawdown from total invested capital, which is undeniably painful to experience.

Lately, I’ve been discussing the current distribution with an AI agent and running additional statistical analysis on my data.
The conclusion is quite staggering: the distribution I’ve experienced since starting live trading on January 1st falls within an approximately 0.5% worst-case variance scenario.
It’s honestly difficult to fully process.

One thought keeps circling in my head:
"How is it possible that after beginning real-money trading, executing almost flawlessly apart from two mistakes, I’ve made virtually no progress in terms of equity growth and instead ended up deep in drawdown after nearly five months?"
It’s a frustrating question.

At the same time, I understand probabilities and variance well enough to know that someone statistically has to fall into that extreme tail-end distribution.
This time, it simply happens to be me.
Unlucky? Absolutely.
But impossible? Not at all.

Despite everything, my belief in the system remains fully intact.
The data is there.
The edge is there.
My responsibility is to persevere long enough for the probabilities to normalize and for the edge to finally express itself closer to its long-term expectancy.

Until then, I will continue doing exactly what I set out to do:
stay disciplined, execute professionally, and keep showing up.

On to the next one.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 38: +2R

A much-needed winning trade following yet another streak of unsuccessful attempts.

This setup was a very clean manipulation of two H4 fractal lows followed by a somewhat subtle H1 market structure shift to the upside. I say subtle because the lower high I waited to be broken with a candle close was formed by just a single candle — something I specifically backtested and confirmed works well within my strategy.

Once I got tagged in, price exploded to the upside and, after a relatively short consolidation near the highs, eventually reached my full 2R target.

One interesting and slightly frustrating detail was that price actually breached my TP level and traded less than 0.2 pips above it on both TradingView and my MT5 platform, yet my closing order somehow did not execute. Most likely this was caused by spread or the speed of the move. I ended up waiting another hour and a half for price to revisit the level and finally close the trade.

Regardless, it was a textbook playbook trade and a very satisfying win that definitely helped rebuild some recently damaged confidence.

I am fully aware that recovering from this drawdown and reaching new equity highs is still a long journey ahead.
But I’m not rushing anything.
One trade at a time.
One execution at a time.
These are exactly the periods where patience, resilience, and discipline are forged. The lessons learned during difficult stretches like this will most likely become invaluable later in my trading journey.

For now, the focus remains unchanged:
stay disciplined, trust the data, and continue executing the edge exactly as tested.

Let’s see how the next one plays out.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 39: +2R
2. Trade 40: -1R

July opened with two trades — one winner and one loser — resulting in a net gain of +1R for the month so far.

Both setups were textbook examples of my strategy and, more importantly, both were executed flawlessly.
No hesitation, no second-guessing, and no emotional interference. Regardless of the outcome, that's exactly the standard I want to hold myself to.
The winning trade developed beautifully and reached its full target, while the second setup unfortunately failed and resulted in a full loss. That's simply part of the game.

What encourages me the most is that two of the last four trades have been winners. While it's still a very small sample size, I quietly hope it could be an early sign that the strategy is beginning to revert closer to its long-term average performance after the exceptionally difficult stretch experienced throughout the first half of the year.
Whether that's the case or not is ultimately irrelevant to my decision-making.
My job is not to predict when performance will improve. My job is to continue executing the edge exactly as tested, trade after trade, regardless of recent results.

The commitment remains unchanged:
stay disciplined, act professionally, and trust the process.

Let's see what the next trades bring.

May 2026 Recap

May was yet another losing month, the second in a row, closing with a -1.7R loss for the strategy.

It was an active month with 10 trades, but it is difficult to produce a positive outcome when the distribution consists of 5 full losses, 1 partial loss, 2 break-even trades, and only 2 winners.
May also continued the disappointing performance of the first half of 2026, which now stands at three losing months and a total net gain of just +0.8R after five months of trading. That translates to an average of only +0.2R per month — an extremely poor run of variance and, by a significant margin, the weakest start to any year in my 13 years of backtested data.

Let's take a closer look at the numbers.
- Trades: 10
(Above the long-term monthly average of 7.5)
- Winning trades: 2 (+4R)
- Full losing trades: 5 (-5R)
- Partial losing trades: 1 (-0.6R)
- Break-even trades: 2 (-0.1R)
Net result: -1.7R

This result sits well below the historical May average of +4R (2013–2025).
In fact, only one May performed worse: May 2016, which closed at -2.6R.
Only one other May was negative at all, a marginal -0.2R recorded in 2023. This highlights just how strong the month has historically been for the strategy, with an average return notably above the overall monthly expectancy (+4R vs +3.45R).
May 2026 also marks the seventh consecutive below-average month relative to the strategy's long-term expectancy.

Additional Metrics
- Win rate: 20%
(Well below the long-term average of 45%)
- Average SL: 30 pips
(Significantly below the long-term average of 48 pips)
- Average hold: 1.2 days
(Excluding the entry day; below the long-term average of 2.2 days)
- Weekend holds: 1 trade
(Below the historical average of 2.2 trades per month)

My interpretation of the data is fairly straightforward:
The market generated a relatively high number of opportunities, but trades tended to be shorter-lived and overwhelmingly unsuccessful. The combination of low holding times, tighter stops, and poor outcomes paints a picture of a choppy market environment that was difficult for the strategy to capitalize on.

Performance Summary
I intentionally skipped one valid setup during the month, and it ultimately became a +2R winner. That was the only execution mistake I made.
Naturally, I am frustrated with myself for missing that trade, but it is important to keep things in perspective.
When I compare my current performance to where I was just a year ago, the progress is undeniable.
Many of the psychological challenges that previously held me back — closing trades prematurely, protecting floating profits out of fear, overtrading, second-guessing setups, and making emotionally driven decisions — have largely disappeared.
While I have missed two trades over the last five months due to bias, which is not part of my strategy, I have otherwise remained highly disciplined and allowed the system to play out exactly as designed.

What makes me proud is that despite one of the worst statistical periods in the strategy's recorded history, I continue to show up, execute professionally, and maintain a positive mindset.
That is the real victory.
The results have been disappointing, but the process has never been stronger.
And ultimately, it is the process—not short-term outcomes—that will determine success over the long run.

Let's see what June brings.