Hi, Alexfot, I'm glad that you have different opinionas I had too many losses. Anyway if I still have signal in 5 minutes I'll go short as planned. Let's see who is right
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- #6,682
- Edited 3:22pm Sep 3, 2007 3:04pm | Edited 3:22pm
Hi
Still we are waiting
for the breakout for the GU .. and in my openion .. if the daily candle closed above 2.0180 and above fibo 50 .. then the pair will retrace .. and the upside breakout can be shown 2morow .. but if the pair closed below 2.0180 like what was done for the last 3 days all the candles closed below 2.0180 .. we will be still in ranging between 89 and 200 MA .. so the pair will retrace to fibo 50, Be aware .. as we have alot of very important ecnomics events this week .. Interest rate for GU and Non-farm .. and alots ..
good luck
Ammar
Still we are waiting
for the breakout for the GU .. and in my openion .. if the daily candle closed above 2.0180 and above fibo 50 .. then the pair will retrace .. and the upside breakout can be shown 2morow .. but if the pair closed below 2.0180 like what was done for the last 3 days all the candles closed below 2.0180 .. we will be still in ranging between 89 and 200 MA .. so the pair will retrace to fibo 50, Be aware .. as we have alot of very important ecnomics events this week .. Interest rate for GU and Non-farm .. and alots ..good luck
Ammar
Hi, Ira! I see all the odds for favoring move down, especially this pin bar, but i think it was just a stophunting and does not change the whole mood for moving up, the triangle is still there and strong support level at 1.3620. That's why I'm favoring move up, just my opinion. But the market is thin today, and I would stay out.
Its good to have a plan and stick to it! That is what trading is about....and staying out of a thin market is a great idea!
You also realize that an 80 pip pin bar isn't stop hunting? Stop hunting may have occurred, but it is virtually impossible for brokers to move the market that far w/out momentum behind them. More than likely it was a result of traders going "flat" for the weekend before the big players come back this week. Just my opinion....
It is always a good thing to enter the market based on a plan...never a good thing to enter to see who is right. We can all be right on our trades, even going in opposite directions, depending on our stops and take profits. I'm sure your post to Ira actually meant that your trade criteria had been met and you were executing your plan (and I just misread it)...nice job!
May you have many profitable trades,
Pips
Discovering market rhythm was like a miracle to me. But looking back in my trading journal I saw that I almost totally ignored the MACD signals.
Well, I did look at the MACD, but only for the confirmation of momentum direction. I see very often it's written: no signal yet, or old signal...
MACD signals are essential part of the system, otherwise Phillip wouldn't put it there, it helps to filter bad trades enormously. I see that I wouldn't open many bad trades if I waited for the signal, so the moral of the story is clear! I analize every passing week, to see how I should have traded, and for August there were +393 pips on the table. Wish my result would be like this sometime . And it will be!!!!!!!!
Well, I did look at the MACD, but only for the confirmation of momentum direction. I see very often it's written: no signal yet, or old signal...
MACD signals are essential part of the system, otherwise Phillip wouldn't put it there, it helps to filter bad trades enormously. I see that I wouldn't open many bad trades if I waited for the signal, so the moral of the story is clear!
I analize every passing week, to see how I should have traded, and for August there were +393 pips on the table. Wish my result would be like this sometime . And it will be!!!!!!!!
Discovering market rhythm was like a miracle to me. But looking back in my trading journal I saw that I almost totally ignored the MACD signals.
Well, I did look at the MACD, but only for the confirmation of momentum direction. I see very often it's written: no signal yet, or old signal...
MACD signals are essential part of the system, otherwise Phillip wouldn't put it there, it helps to filter bad trades enormously. I see that I wouldn't open many bad trades if I waited for the signal, so the moral of the story is clear!
I dont understand...did you entry to trade on the base 1 H or simply you entered on 4H and signal wasnt clear yet ??....did you trade what have you expected ???.... I have this tendency too.... Hi
- #6,693
- Sep 4, 2007 7:54am Sep 4, 2007 7:54am
Don't look at anything on this chart except the last daily bar (friday's close)....anyone see anything remotely interesting?
BTW it is E/U daily....just saw it and it captured my attn....too bad I have some personal obligations I must tend to now....
- #6,696
- Edited 10:26am Sep 4, 2007 10:08am | Edited 10:26am
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Trader | 989 Posts
Hi MikeWong,
Both Cable and E/U had weak sell MACD patterns, but they gave great breaks of support which is a good sell signal in itself(not nec. this system rules in & of itself tho'). This is where PA comes into action, to help us make decisions on when to act. However, it was a riskier trading day b/c of the thin conditions (I went short cable and closed early (at the 200 on hourly b/c price stalled and stalled and stalled...just made me nervous). E/U gave the clearest picture based purely on the chart I posted earlier in the weekend. A huge daily pin gave the suggestion that prices couldn't hold upper levels....the MACD also gave "weak" sell signal. Both Cable and Euro/USD had been struggling w/area's of resistance lately, and both broke minor short-term support...they were both in symmetrical triangles and the break-out could have come from either direction. Also, Cable and Fiber are both being directed by their yen counterparts...I was very unsure of the US risk appetite today...and thus extra cautious w/cable short.
With all this said....don't worry about missing today's trade...they were somewhat riskier b/c of market environment. If you believe that the downmoves will continue...wait for retraces to the broken support lines w/macd signal...pay attention to candles too....when all is said and done, think about where price is in relation to MA's...has price retested area before? Where is short term support & resistance? What have the previous candle closes look like? What does the MACD look like? Where would my stop have to go? What are profit targets? Its a lot of info to consider, but over time, it will become more natural. You'll go from a "shy driver" to one who speeds around on the freeway and only hits the center divide every now and then (hehehe)....
PS... I use either or scenarios...when conditions are met for either the long or the short trade, it is entered....if I miss a breakout trade, I wait for a retrace...or better yet....signs that it was a fakey. The only way we'll know for sure if it is a fakey is if former support doesn't act as resistance...if price re-enters w/bullish candle...target other side of the pattern if r:r justifies....or position for breakout in that direction w/stop below support....confused? sorry....
Both Cable and E/U had weak sell MACD patterns, but they gave great breaks of support which is a good sell signal in itself(not nec. this system rules in & of itself tho'). This is where PA comes into action, to help us make decisions on when to act. However, it was a riskier trading day b/c of the thin conditions (I went short cable and closed early (at the 200 on hourly b/c price stalled and stalled and stalled...just made me nervous). E/U gave the clearest picture based purely on the chart I posted earlier in the weekend. A huge daily pin gave the suggestion that prices couldn't hold upper levels....the MACD also gave "weak" sell signal. Both Cable and Euro/USD had been struggling w/area's of resistance lately, and both broke minor short-term support...they were both in symmetrical triangles and the break-out could have come from either direction. Also, Cable and Fiber are both being directed by their yen counterparts...I was very unsure of the US risk appetite today...and thus extra cautious w/cable short.
With all this said....don't worry about missing today's trade...they were somewhat riskier b/c of market environment. If you believe that the downmoves will continue...wait for retraces to the broken support lines w/macd signal...pay attention to candles too....when all is said and done, think about where price is in relation to MA's...has price retested area before? Where is short term support & resistance? What have the previous candle closes look like? What does the MACD look like? Where would my stop have to go? What are profit targets? Its a lot of info to consider, but over time, it will become more natural. You'll go from a "shy driver"
to one who speeds around on the freeway and only hits the center divide every now and then (hehehe)....PS... I use either or scenarios...when conditions are met for either the long or the short trade, it is entered....if I miss a breakout trade, I wait for a retrace...or better yet....signs that it was a fakey. The only way we'll know for sure if it is a fakey is if former support doesn't act as resistance...if price re-enters w/bullish candle...target other side of the pattern if r:r justifies....or position for breakout in that direction w/stop below support....confused? sorry....
That's quite a pin bar on your chart. I don't seem to have the same one on mine. Nice hammer, but not the same. My broker is Interbank, but I also have a GFT platform that shows the same thing. I guess different brokers calculate the daily charts beginning at different times? I know we've been through this on the 4H but I guess the same issues arise on daily charts as well.
...for me I def. would have sold...did you see the rejection of 2 Inside Top Patterns on your daily w/the "pin" and candle after???? & the nice daily double top (on the MACD)!!! Yeah, I use a standard feed and convert for my broker's difference mentally (my check and balance system)...maybe that explains the difference...and my charts are always bid...
Hope you are trading Fantastic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Pips