Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

XAUUSD is losing ground: US inflation and the Middle East are weighing on the gold market

Gold continues to fall, approaching the March lows amid geopolitical tensions. Prices currently stand at 4,372 USD.

Gold forecast: key takeaways

1. Core PCE price index: previously at 3.2%, projected at 3.3%
2. The market has shifted its focus to the Fed's rate review
3. XAUUSD forecast for 28 May 2026: 4,320

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 28 May 2026, shows that gold continues its downward trajectory this week, testing the March lows. At this stage, XAUUSD quotes have broken below the psychological 4,400 USD level and are trading around 4,372 USD per ounce.

The decline is primarily driven by the renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which, contrary to the logic of traditional safe-haven markets, is putting pressure on gold.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

AUDUSD on the verge of elevated volatility as the market awaits the US and Iran decision

The AUDUSD rate has once again found itself at the mercy of geopolitical developments and Australian statistics. The AUDUSD pair is testing the 0.7150 level.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. The pair is balancing between positive geopolitical developments and negative domestic statistics
2. Falling oil prices have a positive effect on the AUD
3. AUDUSD forecast for 29 May 2026: 0.7125 and 0.7210

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast shows that the pair is forming a correction, balancing between positive geopolitical developments and negative domestic statistics. On Friday morning, quotes are testing the 0.7150 mark.

Falling oil prices are adding to the positive outlook for the AUD, but investors remain sceptical. If Washington and Tehran fail to agree on an extension of the ceasefire, the USD could strengthen sharply.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

DE 40 forecast: the index continues trading in a sideways trend

The DE 40 stock index’s uptrend has shifted into a sideways range, although the upward bias remains. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: Germany’s Unemployment Rate (preliminary) for May came in at 6.3%
2. Market impact: the data creates a positive backdrop for the German stock market

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s unemployment rate declining to 6.3% versus both the forecast and the prior reading of 6.4% may have a moderately positive impact on the DE 40 index. For the market, this signals that the German labor market is holding up better than expected despite pressure from high interest rates, a weak industrial cycle, and business caution around new investments.

For the DE 40 index, this news could provide some support—especially if investors interpret it as confirmation that the German economy is stabilizing. However, the effect will most likely be limited because the unemployment rate alone does not fully change the broader picture.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: the index hits a new all-time high

News about a possible end to the conflict between the US and Iran pushed the US 500 index higher. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US preliminary manufacturing PMI came in at 55.3 in May
2. Market impact: this data is moderately positive for the US stock market

Fundamental analysis

The release of quarterly US GDP data, showing actual growth of 1.6% versus the forecast of 2.0%, could be perceived by the market as a moderately negative signal for the US 500 index. The main reason is that the US economy is growing more slowly than expected, which reduces investor confidence in the sustainability of corporate earnings.

For the US 500 index, the effect could be mixed. On the one hand, weaker-than-expected GDP growth indicates an economic slowdown, which typically pressures shares of companies sensitive to the business cycle.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 30 index forecast: growth momentum has weakened, but the uptrend remains

The US 30 index is trading near its all-time high, but the likelihood of a downward correction is increasing. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US GDP rose by 1.6% year-over-year in Q1 2026
2. Market impact: the data is negative for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

US quarterly GDP data came in below expectations, showing actual growth of 1.6%, below the forecast of 2.0% but up from the previous 0.5%. For the US 30 index, this is a mixed signal, but in the short term, it is more likely to have a moderately negative effect.

For the US 30 index, which includes major US industrial, financial, consumer, and technology companies, softer GDP could reduce appetite for more cyclical stocks.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Brent may spring an unpleasant surprise

The situation in the Middle East is triggering Brent prices. After rising, quotes are forming a corrective wave and are currently hovering around 96.30 USD.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

1. US crude oil inventories fell by 8 million barrels last week
2. Inventories at the largest terminal in Cushing declined to minimum operating levels
3. Brent forecast for 4 June 2026: 100.50

Fundamental analysis

The Brent forecast for 4 June 2026 shows that, after rising, oil prices are forming a corrective wave, primarily driven by geopolitical de-escalation, which has eased supply concerns. At this stage, Brent quotes are testing the 96.30 USD per barrel mark.

A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon was announced a day earlier. This breakthrough, mediated by the US, is viewed by the market as an important step towards de-escalating the conflict in the Middle East.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US Tech forecast: index hits a new all-time high

The US Tech index reached a new all-time high – unusually, the trend is only gaining momentum. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US services PMI came in at 50.7 in May
2. Market impact: the current data is negative for the technology sector

Fundamental analysis

The release of the US services PMI at 50.7, below the forecast of 50.9 and the previous reading of 50.9, indicates slightly weaker momentum than the market expected. The reading is still above 50.0, meaning the services sector continues to expand, but the pace of growth is slowing.

Such data could have a dual impact on the US Tech index. On the one hand, a weaker PMI reduces confidence in the sustainability of economic growth, which could increase caution towards technology companies, particularly those whose valuations are already at high levels.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Correlation broken, USDCAD rises along with oil

Positive Canadian labour market data is not saving the CAD from losing ground. The USDCAD rate continues to rise and is trading around 1.3940.

USDCAD forecast: key takeaways

1. US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 115 thousand, currently at 172 thousand
2. Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.6%
3. USDCAD forecast for 8 June 2026: 1.3900 and 1.4000

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD forecast for today, 8 June 2026, shows that the pair continued its confident upward movement and reached new highs since late March despite rising oil prices, Canada’s main export commodity. On Monday morning, quotes are consolidating around 1.3940.

The US labour market report, Nonfarm Payrolls, radically changed monetary policy expectations. The economy created 172 thousand jobs, more than double the forecast. Against this backdrop, the USD strengthened once again.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: the index falls more than 3.5%

The US 500 index shifted into a downtrend following the release of US labour market data. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 172 thousand in May
2. Market impact: this data is moderately negative for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The release of quarterly US GDP data, with actual growth of 1.6%, compared to the forecast of 2.0%, may be interpreted by the market as a moderately negative signal for the US 500 index. The main reason is that the US economy is growing more slowly than expected, which reduces investor confidence in the resilience of corporate earnings.

For the US 500, the short-term reaction may be restrained or even negative if investors focus specifically on the risk that high interest rates will persist for longer.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

GBPUSD recovered, but the outlook remains minor

The GBPUSD pair returned to 1.3381, with broader prospects for the pound remaining negative.

GBPUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. The GBPUSD pair recouped some of its losses, but its further trend remains uncertain
2. Tension in the oil market and US dollar strength are preventing a full-fledged rebound
3. GBPUSD forecast for 10 June 2026: 1.3300 or 1.3485

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate recovered to 1.3381 after falling to a two-month low shortly before. The primary reason for the previous drop was the strengthening of the US dollar, which is supported by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike and demand for safe-haven assets amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Rising oil prices are putting additional pressure on the British currency. Following new Israeli strikes on targets in Iran, Brent prices rose by more than 5%, fuelling concerns about inflation and possible disruptions in global supply chains. This factor is especially sensitive for the UK due to its heavy dependence on energy imports.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team