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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,321
  • Sep 2, 2007 3:19pm Sep 2, 2007 3:19pm
Quoting Zoran
Going back to a chart I posted a bit over a week ago, it seems to be working out OK.

The highs were not being reached and the lows went lower so I lost a bit of faith - but it is playing out well now. I have the high at about 238.80 (but could be 100 pips or so lower) before we see that large fall to retest the low in the 219 region. Based on some time analysis (not mine), the high should be in on the 4th or 5th of Sep (Tue/Wed).

I suspect it is going to fail and reverse around 221.50 and head all the way up to the 242 to 245 region (red circle). That will be a good test to see whether the bulls can pull it out and if so then up, up and away we go. I do, however, expect it to fail and then we could possibly see the low break (219).

I have attached the chart that I posted a little over a week ago and a new one with further projections.

Z
Very interesting analysis Zoran it will be interesting to see how it turns out.

Regards,

Chris.
  • #13,322
  • Sep 2, 2007 4:00pm Sep 2, 2007 4:00pm
Quoting Wolf.
Very interesting analysis Zoran it will be interesting to see how it turns out.

Regards,

Chris.
Yes, first part will be a rise up to or around 238.80. I can't really see it going too much higher than that as there is strong resistance. Many things lurk around that level so it may reverse a little lower. I'll scale into a short.

Z
  • #13,323
  • Sep 3, 2007 5:03pm Sep 3, 2007 5:03pm
I'm watching this line at the moment. Waiting for a break (Early London session - shaded oval) to go long up to the 238 region and then reversing for up to 1700 pips (221 region). Also a reverse head and shoulders in the picture - will it work out?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,324
  • Sep 3, 2007 5:28pm Sep 3, 2007 5:28pm
As they say, a picture's worth a thousand words.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,325
  • Edited 7:18am Sep 4, 2007 4:58am | Edited 7:18am
GBPJPY has finally dropped from the top of the channel and weekly rising trend line after yesterdays quiet day.

Price has now stalled around the monthly pivot and S2 area and may move north.

Although I think there is more downward movment to at least the rising trend line around 232.

Price is being compressed in a triangle now and may range until NFP.

Lets see what happens when it meets the lower trend line.

Just my novice view,

Regards,

Chris.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,326
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:04am Sep 4, 2007 5:04am
I have attached a 5m chart showing price reacting at the S2/monthly pivot area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,327
  • Sep 4, 2007 7:26am Sep 4, 2007 7:26am
Nudging the trend line now.. if it breaks there will be a good selling opportunity if it returns and tests it again.

After that 231 should easily be attainable and then 229.50.

Just my novice view, I could be wrong.
  • #13,328
  • Sep 4, 2007 9:37am Sep 4, 2007 9:37am
Well the trend line acted as good support and became a good buy when it broke the decending trend line.

Price going to stall here at m2 for a possible short scalp but may then retest the the 4h decending trend line.

I could be wrong, lets see what happens.

Edit: My M2 is 233.51

Edit: I was slow posting, price is now aroud the daily pivot area
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  • #13,329
  • Sep 4, 2007 2:43pm Sep 4, 2007 2:43pm
Quoting Wolf.
Nudging the trend line now.. if it breaks there will be a good selling opportunity if it returns and tests it again.

After that 231 should easily be attainable and then 229.50.

Just my novice view, I could be wrong.
Look at my chart a few posts above.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13325.

We need to go up before we come down!

Z
  • #13,330
  • Sep 4, 2007 4:48pm Sep 4, 2007 4:48pm
We have come to the test point. If anyone didn't enter long off the bounce (from the bottom channel line) then another opportunity is coming. If that upper trendline breaks then a 400 pip long should be in order. A total of 600 pips from the bottom channel line.

The reversal should occur in the 238 region so that will be a good take profit and reverse area. I have the top reversal point at 238.80 (but it could be lower). Now do NOT trade this analysis unless you know what you are doing!

So far all charts are playing as planned. I will update with results as they complete. Also, I have been informed that a Gann timepoint reversal should occur on the 4th or 5th of Sep so that ties in nicely with my analysis.

Z
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,331
  • Sep 4, 2007 4:52pm Sep 4, 2007 4:52pm
I should also mention that if the bottom channel line breaks, then that will be a nice short entry back to 229 although I'm not expecting that to happen.
  • #13,332
  • Sep 4, 2007 4:58pm Sep 4, 2007 4:58pm
The Price Arrived R And We Have Weak Bullish...
If The Candle Closed Under It We Must See Lower Levels..
Regards
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  • #13,333
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:13pm Sep 4, 2007 5:13pm
The Last Candle Opened Gap Down..
GJ IS obedient for S/R
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  • #13,334
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:26pm Sep 4, 2007 5:26pm
Quoting Zoran
Look at my chart a few posts above.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13325.

We need to go up before we come down!

Z
Hi Zoran,

I notice we did come down a bit first lol .

Have made money both directions today so I'm happy where ever it goes.

Would explain you reasoning behind your forcast please, as to why you believe it will rise to 238 and then fall 1700 (sure hope it does).

I'm off to bed now so if you have time to reply I will read it tomorrow.

Left my long in place with stops well in profit, no target I will see where it is in the morning.

Regards,

Chris.
  • #13,335
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:30pm Sep 4, 2007 5:30pm
great..up or down..but no range pls.. from last two days...no direction
  • #13,336
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:32pm Sep 4, 2007 5:32pm
Quoting Wolf.
Hi Zoran,

I notice we did come down a bit first lol .

Have made money both directions today so I'm happy where ever it goes.

Would explain you reasoning behind your forcast please, as to why you believe it will rise to 238 and then fall 1700 (sure hope it does).

I'm off to bed now so if you have time to reply I will read it tomorrow.

Left my long in place with stops well in profit, no target I will see where it is in the morning.

Regards,

Chris.
I just believe there will come a point where the low needs to be tested again. I can see lots of resistance at 238.80 so I believe that will be the high until the retest.

Bed time here also.
  • #13,337
  • Sep 5, 2007 6:27am Sep 5, 2007 6:27am
I can see that the upper trendline was pierced but then price rebounded off it. This could be a normal reaction to the resistance at that level. I will wait and see what happens now. If price breaks the bottom line (upwards) I will re-enter long again. If these lines hold, then shorts will most likely be good. There is not a lot of action at the moment so I'll wait for some clearer signals.

I'm still favouring an upward movement although it will take some effort to break the upper resistance.
  • #13,338
  • Sep 5, 2007 8:04pm Sep 5, 2007 8:04pm
Although I am wide open to prices going either way and want to remain as neutral as possible, I do have a view to share for what it is worth.

From a technical point I see that the high in this impulse wave 4 may be complete, and we could be going into wave 5 down over the next few weeks. If you look at the chart notice the last candle for Sept 6 opened below the Support trend line, and the lack of new highs for the past week shown by the candles are graphically by the Snake oscillator and declining Momentum indicators.

Externally, the DOW dropped 143 points, the VIX increased about 8% to 24.58, which correlates to a falling Guppy.

From a fundamental point of view Bloomberg headlines are pretty negative today about continued liquidity problems and financial woes - not exactly the making of a bull rally in my mind. I know the media and stock brokers tend to push bullish views only because it puts money directly into their pockets. I am not fooled by media hype and bankers agenda to keep the whole facade on status quo.

I'll concede that a move up to 239 is possible, hell anything is possible, you just have to look at the last corrections of this size to see that some big moves south continued to happen for months. Who knows, but just for your consideration, you may want to consider looking at October 1998.

Is this the wind up for a big move in one direction or another? Will it begin this week, or be delayed until later in September? As long as it does not go sideways, I like the movement. Keep pip positive.

http://vault.bz/charts/guppy-1day-sept5-07.gif
  • #13,339
  • Sep 6, 2007 2:16am Sep 6, 2007 2:16am
Just wait for the signal from ECB. If Trichet raises interest rates, we can view it as a strong signal from the ECB that they think the liquidity issue is no longer a problem. If rates are put on hold, we shouldnt be buying this pair that strongly as they don't think that the market is capable of handling that increase.
  • #13,340
  • Sep 6, 2007 3:30am Sep 6, 2007 3:30am
Quoting Zoran
I just believe there will come a point where the low needs to be tested again. I can see lots of resistance at 238.80 so I believe that will be the high until the retest.

Bed time here also.
Thanks for your reply Zoran.


The declining 4H trend line is being tested again so maybe it will break it this time and move up to 238.80 (pesonally I hope you are right would suit my system). If it does move up I see 234.80 as a strong resistance on my chart

Also see how the price moved up this morning and touched the rising trend line from 17th August (I love trend lines) a nice short scalp.

I am long again now with an initial target around 234.80.

We are in an expanding triangle and I think price may follow this T/L at least up to that level.

We have a confluence around there, the 234.85 resistance, the rising weekly T/L and the 50% of the major move down (GJ seems to like the 50%)

Just my very novice take on things.

Regards,

Chris.
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