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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #20,121
  • Sep 1, 2007 11:19pm Sep 1, 2007 11:19pm
Originally posted by EL Grande,

Quote
I did micro EW on this pair..... and guess what

.... just when I thought I had ruled out any possibility for price to go up, I came up with 1 probability that the Bulls can still ride with the Bears and to have more Bears joining in on the plunge.

Dear El Grande,
Just wish your prediction comes true...cos I still have longs.....Once it has cover up my buds, I'll close them. Then wait for the trend directions. Guess who'll win the CUP!!!!!!
  • #20,122
  • Sep 1, 2007 11:25pm Sep 1, 2007 11:25pm
Ran across this little bit of information, and thought I would post it. For the first time since 1988, the federal depository institutions have less reserves than they are required by law to have. The rumor is that the $500 million each borrowed from the discount window by four banks wasn't done to encourage the use of the discount window, it was to cover up a reserve problem by one of the four. By some sort of coincidence the reserve shortfall in the fed report was.......

$500 million

The table formating is screwed up, but I put the two important numbers in red.

Quote
AGGREGATE RESERVES OF DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS AND THE MONETARY BASE
Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements(1)
Not seasonally adjusted
Millions of dollars
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reserves of depository institutions
---------------------------------------
Date total(2) nonborrowed required(3) Monetary base(4)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Month(5)
2006-July 44963 44613 43523 804665
Aug. 42793 42424 41408 802718
Sep. 42711 42308 41083 803140

Oct. 41879 41650 40256 802349
Nov. 42370 42211 40679 808594
Dec. 43361 43170 41557 818395

2007-Jan. 44629 44418 43119 816800
Feb. 42693 42663 41190 812908
Mar. 40810 40756 39170 813937

Apr. 42598 42518 41070 815950
May 44092 43989 42652 818594
June 43735 43548 42026 820027

July 42832 42570 41149 822078
2 weeks ending(6)
2007-July 4 46041 45854 44017 820643
18 39609 39310 37921 822939

Aug. 1 45315 45070 43743 821593
15 46888 46627 37556 828067
29p 43430 41871 42371 818263
  • #20,123
  • Sep 1, 2007 11:35pm Sep 1, 2007 11:35pm
weekly chart. doesn't quite seem bearish to me, does it?

Quoting my2buoys
Monthly and Weekly charts are bearish.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #20,124
  • Sep 1, 2007 11:37pm Sep 1, 2007 11:37pm
daily chart. bullish???? from where? i only see a drop and some retracements so far.

Quoting my2buoys
Daily and 4H are still bullish.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #20,125
  • Sep 1, 2007 11:41pm Sep 1, 2007 11:41pm
and finally, h4 chart. you call this BULLISH??? look closely. there is a fall starting at 251.08 and some retracements (by the way, last retracement failed to make a higher high, which might be considered a bearish sign).
i just don't see bullish. not now, anyway.

Quoting my2buoys
Daily and 4H are still bullish.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #20,126
  • Sep 1, 2007 11:46pm Sep 1, 2007 11:46pm
well I've finally setup Aus' great system on my computer and pretty much understand it. Just want confirmation that:

  1. 4hour: we are waiting for QQE to cross the dotted line down (has already turned bearish)

  1. 4hour: for price to form below the TFT.

  1. 1 hour: QQE has already crossed below the 50 and price is below the TFT

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,127
  • Sep 1, 2007 11:50pm Sep 1, 2007 11:50pm
Quoting Scrat
and finally, h4 chart. you call this BULLISH??? look closely. there is a fall starting at 251.08 and some retracements (by the way, last retracement failed to make a higher high, which might be considered a bearish sign).
i just don't see bullish. not now, anyway.
What M2B pointed out was the QQE indicator. According to the strategy the 4hr and Daily TF is still bullish. 4hr QQE has to cross down the red dotted (slow RSI)for a significant bearish rally towards 220. However until the daily QQE cross down we will not see the break of last month Low of 219.13.
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  • #20,128
  • Sep 1, 2007 11:56pm Sep 1, 2007 11:56pm
and another one.
just to clear up some things about hammers: a hammer occurs at the (presumable) bottom of a downtrend. if you see a candle that does look like a hammer, it DOES NOT mean that you will see a trend reversal. it just means NOTHING if 1) it is not in a downtrend and if 2) it is not confirmed. and 3) even if it is confirmed, it doesn't mean that you will always see a trend reversal - just the end of the current trend.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #20,129
  • Sep 1, 2007 11:56pm Sep 1, 2007 11:56pm
Quoting Trumpcard
well I've finally setup Aus' great system on my computer and pretty much understand it. Just want confirmation that:

  1. 4hour: we are waiting for QQE to cross the dotted line down (has already turned bearish)

  1. 4hour: for price to form below the TFT.

  1. 1 hour: QQE has already crossed below the 50 and price is below the TFT

spoton
  • #20,130
  • Sep 2, 2007 12:01am Sep 2, 2007 12:01am
Bill , Please check your PM.
  • #20,131
  • Edited 12:18am Sep 2, 2007 12:02am | Edited 12:18am
i just said what i saw on the charts. i also see a nice reverse (or hidden) divergence on h4, which signals a possible downtrend in the near future. and since candlestick pattern on h4 already confirmed a bearish move... let's see where it goes.

Quoting auslanco
What M2B pointed out was the QQE indicator. According to the strategy the 4hr and Daily TF is still bullish. 4hr QQE has to cross down for a significant bearish rally towards 220. However until the daily QQE cross down we will not see the break of last month Low of 219.13.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #20,132
  • Sep 2, 2007 12:40am Sep 2, 2007 12:40am
I still have a big long that is currently Minus 78 pips.

I'm trying to find reasons to hold on to this or close it before market opens.

Reasons for holding:

1. Traders might have cooled down over the weekend and the help offered by George Bush could help a little.
(This would be the very first time that an action of this president would help me, and since I've payed a lot of tax money since he started I think I'm entitled to that).
2. Most of the bad news regarding bankruptcies in sub-prime mortgage business has already been in the news.
3. The next wave of bad news is expected in October, when 10,000's of mortgages are going to reset to higher interest.
4. The 1 hour and 4 hour Momentum is still up.

Reasons for closing:

1. Weekly chart looks bearish.
2. It seems to be very hard to break the resistance @ 235.50
3. Most experienced guys here at this forum are talking bearish.
4. There might be some bad new a few days from now:
- The ADP Employment Report on Wednesday
- NFP on Friday
i guess US lost a lot of jobs in August (100.000+?) in mortgage and financial industries, home construction, home improvement and landscaping industries.

For the second half of the week, I have a bearish look.

For the first 2 days, I would appreciate any advise from this highly appreciated forum.

Auslanco, you did a great job starting this thread.

Orca
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #20,133
  • Sep 2, 2007 12:44am Sep 2, 2007 12:44am
Quoting bill77
nothing yet mate. i'll just whait a bit longer give it a chance to receive. Do you have a carrier pidgon? lol i might delete all the other pm's as well, it might be slowing it down
sorry mate .. check your email,
  • #20,134
  • Edited 1:54am Sep 2, 2007 12:56am | Edited 1:54am
Quoting Scrat
i just said what i saw on the charts. i also see a nice reverse (or hidden) divergence on h4, which signals a possible downtrend in the near future. and since candlestick pattern on h4 already confirmed a bearish move... let's see where it goes.
Agreed ,
I got a open sell order( on my new 15min strategy) entered @ 234.23 TP target @ 231.26
  • #20,135
  • Sep 2, 2007 1:28am Sep 2, 2007 1:28am
New Intra day strategy was uploaded to a new thread. Last week over 900 pips on forward testing.

Please check
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post1571728
  • #20,136
  • Sep 2, 2007 1:56am Sep 2, 2007 1:56am
Quoting auslanco
New Intra day strategy was uploaded to a new thread. Last week over 900 pips on forward testing.

Please check
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post1571728

I hope A and K will take advantage of this feature to update pertinent
data on their respective strategy threads.


Forex Factory Forced to Make Changes
Forex Factory officials report they have received a number of threatening letters and phone calls regarding a certain forum feature. The extorters have been demanding that the first post of a thread be infinitely editable, so that key files and information can be kept up-to-date in the first post. While normal posts still have a 24-hour editing limit, Forex Factory succumbed to the demands and has made the first post infinitely editable. Senior executives at the company are hopeful that the harassment will soon cease.

Analysis by Merlin Jeffries
__________________

Merlin
  • #20,137
  • Edited 2:45am Sep 2, 2007 1:58am | Edited 2:45am
Quoting markam
Ran across this little bit of information, and thought I would post it. For the first time since 1988, the federal depository institutions have less reserves than they are required by law to have. The rumor is that the $500 million each borrowed from the discount window by four banks wasn't done to encourage the use of the discount window, it was to cover up a reserve problem by one of the four. By some sort of coincidence the reserve shortfall in the fed report was.......

$500 million

The table formating is screwed up, but I put the two important numbers in red.
if the gap with reserve will not be filled out immediately with asset sales than we might see pretty soon the hyper inflation scenario
  • #20,138
  • Sep 2, 2007 2:49am Sep 2, 2007 2:49am
Quoting fourxtrader
I hope A and K will take advantage of this feature to update pertinent
data on their respective strategy threads.
Wow, Thanks Doc, This new feature will be useful indeed.
  • #20,139
  • Sep 2, 2007 6:52am Sep 2, 2007 6:52am
Quoting mktjong
Dear El Grande,

I think you have done a great job on your EW analysis. Visited your thread a few times and tried to learn something. A while back then, I also bought a book regarding EW, but never ever to grasp it, the more I try to learn, the more headache I become. I think not many can really master this EW stuff. You are one of those "not many" I guess .. cool

Also, trying to predict something in future especially in trading is very mentally exhaustive and not 100% true, thus, try not to get myself another headache again. As a matter of fact, I found a new 'signature' to remind me this
Nonetheless, I like and enjoy your contribution. Keep it up bro
Dear mktjong,

Thank you for your appreciation. I hope that you not only enjoyed reading what was on my EW thread but also benifitted from them. I definitely cannot say that my EW Counts are Perfect.

I consider them only as probabilities which I select and work on when I trade. I supplement this with other strategies to narrow down the choices or Probabilities. Even then, there are still risks.

Probabilities I provide on my analysis are based on my own understanding of EW Theories supplemented by other peoples analysis using other methods. From there I get reminded on the various disciplines I have tried to study before. This makes it easier to make an integrated analysis on the price. It provides you less options as to how price will unfold and provide you with projections and potential retracement levels.

Nonetheless, I know how you feel as I went thru the same phase too and you know the rest of my story....

But you really do not have to give up. Slowly, it will come to you. It was difficult when I was forcing it on myself to learn. But I came around.

Remember that EW Counts are not exact. They are just potential projections and retracement levels to aid us in our Price direction analysis.

Keep harvesting those pips.

EG
  • #20,140
  • Sep 2, 2007 7:45am Sep 2, 2007 7:45am
Quoting Scrat
i just said what i saw on the charts. i also see a nice reverse (or hidden) divergence on h4, which signals a possible downtrend in the near future. and since candlestick pattern on h4 already confirmed a bearish move... let's see where it goes.
My 4H shows two opposing trend lines working their way to form a symmetrical triangle while Bollinger Bands are almost horizontal which does not indicate any clear market direction until one of the trend lines is broken.

Short term direction could be down for a day or two since the price has just bounced off the upper trend line with a bearish engulfing candle stick. Nevertheless, the 50 EMA and 38.2 Fibo form a nice confluence @ 232.40 which is a potential retracement level.

Weekly chart shows a pose at the 23.6 Fibo. Some are suggesting a H&S formation but I think it is too early to judge since the righ shoulder has not started to form yet.
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