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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #20,101
  • Sep 1, 2007 12:18pm Sep 1, 2007 12:18pm
Quoting karmostaji
It is indeed a hammer and if you want something even more interesting, have a look at the weekly DOW chart, we have a nice hammer there too. I expect a huge fall.. 1000+ pips


how i see it:

A hammer is a very important indicator of reversal trend and it is named such because the market is attempting to hammer out a market bottom. It is a very good indicator of a bullish trend on the way, whether the body is green or red.
How to recognise a Hammer: The hammer appears during a downtrend only. The body of the hammer has a long shadow on the underside - at least 2-3 times the length of the body and little if any shadow on the upside. The colour of the body does not matter.


i expect new highs at least the 63.8 fibs before any major drop this week
THE TREND IS UR FRIEND
  • #20,102
  • Sep 1, 2007 12:35pm Sep 1, 2007 12:35pm
Just wanted to add my opinion. In the weekly chart below, it looks to me we have a very possible top formed with a tweezer top and hanging man candle combo over the last 2 weeks. This pattern could be considered a harami according to nison and could predict a bearish pattern for next week.

After all the turmoil this week, godzilla finished down only 100 pips from the open, but finished the week bearish so a move back to the 228 low would not surprise me a bit.

Stay calm markam!
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  • #20,103
  • Edited 1:05pm Sep 1, 2007 12:35pm | Edited 1:05pm
Quoting tradechief
how i see it:

A hammer is a very important indicator of reversal trend and it is named such because the market is attempting to hammer out a market bottom. It is a very good indicator of a bullish trend on the way, whether the body is green or red.
How to recognise a Hammer: The hammer appears during a downtrend only. The body of the hammer has a long shadow on the underside - at least 2-3 times the length of the body and little if any shadow on the upside. The colour of the body does not matter.


i expect new highs at least the 63.8 fibs before any major drop this week
The more I look at the charts, I tend to agree too it is going to be bullish at least in the short term. 1 & 4 hr chart closed with a shooting star while trending down. This could mean reversal in the short term.
In addition, read many news on cnbc.com perceived that market is encouraged by the intention of Fed which seems will cut the rate or do whatever it can to help. This soothes the market quite phsychologically. Maybe that's why dow and us treasuries closed high on Friday.
Having said that, my open short position is in danger Well, hope enough to close it breaks even or a few green pips or take small loss .. hehe
  • #20,104
  • Sep 1, 2007 2:58pm Sep 1, 2007 2:58pm
[
Quoting karmostaji
Looking at my charts, we will have a big fall next week..

Weekly chart:

I don't remember what we call this last candle but it is a sign of a big fall

http://img105.imageshack.us/img105/9029/gjvr1.gif


Daily chart:

On the daily chart, we have completed 50% retracement as you can see


http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/2357/gjog0.gif


4H chart:

We are in a nice downtrend channel, and if we take the fib from 244 to the low of 219, we have completed 61.8% retracement, so to me we should be heading downwards from here..

http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/8899/gjdh6.gif

Hanging man.
  • #20,105
  • Sep 1, 2007 3:07pm Sep 1, 2007 3:07pm
Quoting mktjong
The more I look at the charts, I tend to agree too it is going to be bullish at least in the short term. 1 & 4 hr chart closed with a shooting star while trending down. This could mean reversal in the short term.
In addition, read many news on cnbc.com perceived that market is encouraged by the intention of Fed which seems will cut the rate or do whatever it can to help. This soothes the market quite phsychologically. Maybe that's why dow and us treasuries closed high on Friday.
Having said that, my open short position is in danger Well, hope enough to close it breaks even or a few green pips or take small loss .. hehe
I agree that it should accomplish correction to 61.8 before bearish rally because on my 5m and 10m charts 5sma shows a change of direction
  • #20,106
  • Sep 1, 2007 3:33pm Sep 1, 2007 3:33pm
thanks.
now here's more from the wonderful world of candlesticks: what we actually saw on the weekly chart was a piercing pattern. unconfirmed (guess what the confirmation would have been... of course, a weekly CLOSE above 234.43 which we didn't have). at that moment, this meant 2 things:
1. sideways, or
2. UP (and not down), if we were to see the above mentioned confirmation. now since we've already seen sideways, the time for a new move is closer. remember, it can break either ways, so at this moment it is a bit premature to say up or down. yes, i favor a down move (judgind by the daily chart) but i'm always ready to follow the trend wherever it might take me.
so keep your mind clear and your eyes wide open.

p.s. i'll post some charts later about candlesticks... eventually with some more explanations.

Quoting Hakuna Matata
exactly !! -- this is a good lesson re: hangingman/hammer -- many have misunderstood what it represents--Scrat-- nice of u to share
basic candlestick patterns should be a know know for everyone !

the most important point above is:

a hammer and a hanging man have little value without a confirmation

BUT a good confirmation at the same time on a weekly chart means that the coming weekly candle ideally needs to be greater then half the body size of the previous bull candle week (the week b4 the past week) which was approx 1000 pips long. That means this coming weeks candle has to close sort of greater then 400-500 pips below that bull candle---(or even as Karmo suggested 1000 pips)-- so big move cant be ruled out simply coz we would be lookin at a weekly confirmation candle which can be HUGE nxt week---preferabely even back to the 100sma on weekly....and if that happens --we will all enjoy the fruits of that rollercoaster ride
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #20,107
  • Sep 1, 2007 3:51pm Sep 1, 2007 3:51pm
Quoting mktjong
The more I look at the charts, I tend to agree too it is going to be bullish at least in the short term. 1 & 4 hr chart closed with a shooting star while trending down. This could mean reversal in the short term.
In addition, read many news on cnbc.com perceived that market is encouraged by the intention of Fed which seems will cut the rate or do whatever it can to help. This soothes the market quite phsychologically. Maybe that's why dow and us treasuries closed high on Friday.
Having said that, my open short position is in danger Well, hope enough to close it breaks even or a few green pips or take small loss .. hehe
Oh no.... you are giving me the creeps. Just when I thought the Bears were gearing up for that sprint.... but honestly...... I got chills because of too many bearish signs .... Could this be too good for the Bears?

EG

PS. Except for Scrats Candlestick Lesson, I can't find any bullish signs to convince me that the Bulls are in control. Although he says that the weekly close did not give a confirmation for the Upward movement of Price.

Now that adds the candlestick part of the integrated analysis Chart I posted on my thread.

Still more bearish signs added to the list
  • #20,108
  • Sep 1, 2007 3:59pm Sep 1, 2007 3:59pm
This is my fib chart, I use the high and low from last friday for my hourly fibs(orange),
high and low from last week for my 4 hourly fib(green)
high and low from from last month for my daily fib(blue)
and high and low from last year for my weekly fib(red)
it works quite well with a trendline chart I also have...
for power I look at VTtraders QQE on various timeframes at important fib level points.
also use a fxsniper cci with trendlines on the hourly and 4 hourly,but if you switch the timeframe to 5 min or 15 or 1 those trendlines on the fxsniper CCI will show you a road.Let's get some pips!
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Boyy,trap money,like bear hunters.
  • #20,109
  • Sep 1, 2007 4:48pm Sep 1, 2007 4:48pm
Here is my story on the Candlesticks

EG
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  • #20,110
  • Sep 1, 2007 4:54pm Sep 1, 2007 4:54pm
Quoting Merc
This is my fib chart, I use the high and low from last friday for my hourly fibs(orange),
high and low from last week for my 4 hourly fib(green)
high and low from from last month for my daily fib(blue)
and high and low from last year for my weekly fib(red)
it works quite well with a trendline chart I also have...
for power I look at VTtraders QQE on various timeframes at important fib level points.
also use a fxsniper cci with trendlines on the hourly and 4 hourly,but if you switch the timeframe to 5 min or 15 or 1 those trendlines on the fxsniper CCI will show you a road.Let's get some pips!
Hi Merc,

I see you are using FXSniper's Ergodic CCI & Trigger. You might be interested in the attached indicator instead. I rewrote FXSniper's indicator a few months back due to a couple things. For one, I don't know why he involved CCI in the name at all because it has nothing to do with CCI. Secondly, while FXSniper wrote some great indicators, he was not that familiar with MT4 and his Ergodic CCI (at least the copy I got) was very resource intensive and basically redraws the entire indicator on every tick which is completely unnecessary. With my version you should see the identical patterns just with the scale numbers different. Give it a try.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 BH-Ergodic.mq4   6 KB | 540 downloads
  • #20,111
  • Sep 1, 2007 5:10pm Sep 1, 2007 5:10pm
I will definitely try it out and compare,
though the fxsniper works pretty well...
I really don't know nothing about mt4 indicators so thanks for sharing.

regards
Merc

Quoting brucehvn
Hi Merc,

I see you are using FXSniper's Ergodic CCI & Trigger. You might be interested in the attached indicator instead. I rewrote FXSniper's indicator a few months back due to a couple things. For one, I don't know why he involved CCI in the name at all because it has nothing to do with CCI. Secondly, while FXSniper wrote some great indicators, he was not that familiar with MT4 and his Ergodic CCI (at least the copy I got) was very resource intensive and basically redraws the entire indicator on every tick which is completely unnecessary. With my version you should see the identical patterns just with the scale numbers different. Give it a try.
Boyy,trap money,like bear hunters.
  • #20,112
  • Sep 1, 2007 5:29pm Sep 1, 2007 5:29pm
I did micro EW on this pair..... and guess what

.... just when I thought I had ruled out any possibility for price to go up, I came up with 1 probability that the Bulls can still ride with the Bears and to have more Bears joining in on the plunge.

EG
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  • #20,113
  • Sep 1, 2007 7:04pm Sep 1, 2007 7:04pm
Quoting pipped oFF
Yeah, where is Mr. Monarch? he hasn't checked in in a day or three.
I have been trying my best to read along the thread everyday, but last week I gave myself off to posting on the threads, even though I think I did a couple of times.

Traders must allow themselves a time of retreat to re-focus more on trading rather then analyzing on threads.

I am currently trading a different style of trading which would not be on the lines of the AUSLANCO thread style, so I am going to be more of an observer from here on out.

Keep up the great work everyone, your play by play is amusing most of the time, and keeps everyone working together in their efforts to make a profit on a daily basis.

Have a Great Weekend Folks!
  • #20,114
  • Sep 1, 2007 7:24pm Sep 1, 2007 7:24pm
GJ Battle of the heavyweights
Attached Image
  • #20,115
  • Sep 1, 2007 7:38pm Sep 1, 2007 7:38pm
Quoting auslanco
GJ Battle of the heavyweights
what if both happen before 2008? who wins then?
or is it a double knockout?
  • #20,116
  • Edited 10:23pm Sep 1, 2007 9:10pm | Edited 10:23pm
Quoting el grande
I did micro EW on this pair..... and guess what

.... just when I thought I had ruled out any possibility for price to go up, I came up with 1 probability that the Bulls can still ride with the Bears and to have more Bears joining in on the plunge.

EG

Dear El Grande,

I think you have done a great job on your EW analysis. Visited your thread a few times and tried to learn something. A while back then, I also bought a book regarding EW, but never ever to grasp it, the more I try to learn, the more headache I become. I think not many can really master this EW stuff. You are one of those "not many" I guess .. cool

Also, trying to predict something in future especially in trading is very mentally exhaustive and not 100% true, thus, try not to get myself another headache again. As a matter of fact, I found a new 'signature' to remind me this
Nonetheless, I like and enjoy your contribution. Keep it up bro
  • #20,117
  • Sep 1, 2007 9:24pm Sep 1, 2007 9:24pm
Quoting JDAMv3
Hello everyone.

I have a question....

Due to recent events with my job, I'm putting more hours in and my trading timetable has significantly decreased. I'm looking to start day trading, possible weekly trading and I'm having a difficult time trying to establish good S/L levels??? I know that I will deal with more of a swing in the market and a 100 pip S/L might not be a smart move. Any advice would be great!

Thanks everyone.

Brandon
Decrease your lot size to allow for a bigger stop loss.

M2B
  • #20,118
  • Sep 1, 2007 9:38pm Sep 1, 2007 9:38pm
I'm too lazy to post a chart right now so just refer back a page or so to Karmo's. The double top at 235.50 does seem very strong. I thought for sure it would push through on the second attempt. That second attempt failure and fairly hard fall usually would indicate a temporary reversal. However, don't overlook these factors occurring at the time of the second failure. 1) It was the last day of the week; 2) It was the last day of the month; 3) It was the last day before a US holiday meaning a long weekend was coming up; 4) Although there was no major news, per se, there were two major 'speeches' by the head of the Fed and the President of the US. There are probably a few more things that could be thrown in but I think that these 4 major issues were enough to potentially delay a further move upward. The candle Karmo referred to was also an inside candle which means there is indecision (although I'm not a candle expert). I'm not saying it's going up and I'm not saying it's going down. I'm saying it could go either way. Monthly and Weekly charts are bearish. Daily and 4H are still bullish. Let's wait to see what the charts tell us Sunday night before coming to any conclusions. The majority here seem to be leaning bear, but don't rule out an uptrend continuation. Obviously 235.50 would have to be conclusively broken (at least a 4H close above) to signal an uptrend continuation. I don't have a bias. I just know if we're patient we're all gonna make a lot of money next week! See ya Sunday night.

M2B
  • #20,119
  • Sep 1, 2007 9:41pm Sep 1, 2007 9:41pm
Quoting sdot
what if both happen before 2008? who wins then?
or is it a double knockout?
As long as we follow along both directions, we all win.

If it hits 210 first however, I win the trophy.
  • #20,120
  • Sep 1, 2007 9:46pm Sep 1, 2007 9:46pm
Quoting markam
If it hits 210 first however, I win the trophy.
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