Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

Gold (XAUUSD) does not believe in a miracle: prices are falling due to the Middle East and its consequences

Gold (XAUUSD) is declining to 4,598 USD as inflation risks are exerting too much pressure. Discover more in our analysis for 29 April 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. Gold (XAUUSD) quotes are moving downwards as inflation risks are increasing significantly
2. Global central banks will be forced either to keep rates unchanged or to raise them
3. XAUUSD forecast for 29 April 2026: 4,580 or 4,500

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is holding below 4,600 USD per ounce on Wednesday after falling by almost 2% the previous day. The current levels are the lowest in a month. Pressure is linked to the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Donald Trump, Iran is demanding that the naval blockade be lifted while negotiations continue. At the same time, disruptions have already reduced energy supplies from the Middle East. The closure of the strait restricts about 20% of global oil flows, which the IEA describes as the largest supply shock. This is increasing inflationary pressure.

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EURUSD falls amid persistent inflation in the US

The EURUSD rate continues to decline amid a stronger dollar and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. The rate currently stands at 1.1668. Discover more in our analysis for 30 April 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. The EURUSD rate is declining for the third consecutive trading session
2. The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged, but signalled a more hawkish policy course
3. US inflation remains elevated amid rising energy prices

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining for the third consecutive trading session. Sellers are increasing pressure and attempting to consolidate below the key support level at 1.1665. A confident breakout of this level could accelerate the bearish momentum. The currency pair has reached a three-week low amid a stronger dollar. The US currency received support from the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish monetary policy stance than the market had expected.

The regulator held the rate steady, in line with market forecasts, but disagreements emerged within the committee. Some officials opposed signals of a possible resumption of rate cuts, reinforcing the perception of policy as restrictive. An additional factor came from inflation dynamics in the US. Price growth remains elevated, largely because of higher energy prices, limiting the scope for policy easing.

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DE 40 forecast: the index tested the support level

The DE 40 stock index continues its upward momentum despite a pullback to the support level. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: Germany’s preliminary CPI came in at 0.6% in April
2. Market impact: the data provides a positive backdrop for the German stock market

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s inflation data appears moderately positive for the DE 40 index, as the monthly CPI came in at 0.6% versus a forecast of 0.7% and slowed notably from the previous 1.1%. For the market, this means that price growth in April was slightly weaker than expected, suggesting pressure on interest rate expectations could ease slightly.

For the DE 40, the impact is likely to be moderately positive, rather than outright bullish. Despite the slower monthly reading, annual inflation in Germany is expected to stand at 2.9% in April, according to Destatis preliminary estimates, following 2.7% in March.

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Brent holds near its highs due to a new round of conflict

Brent is trading at 111.49 USD. Middle East risks remain too high. Find more details in our analysis for 5 May 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

1. Brent prices are holding in a steady uptrend
2. While the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the chances of higher energy prices will remain elevated
3. Brent forecast for 5 May 2026: 112 or 113

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude oil is hovering around 111.49 USD per barrel on Tuesday after jumping nearly 6% the day before, driven by a sharp escalation in the Middle East.

The US and Iran exchanged strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, which increased doubts about the sustainability of the four-week ceasefire. US forces escorted their vessels and stated that they repelled drone and small-boat attacks to protect commercial shipping.

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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USDJPY halts its rise: the external backdrop is improving

The USDJPY pair stalled near 157.81. Geopolitics is improving market sentiment. Discover more in our analysis for 6 May 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

1. The USDJPY pair paused its rise after three days of gains
2. The market is factoring in improving global sentiment, but the risks for the yen remain high
3. USDJPY forecast for 6 May 2026: 158.50

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate reached 157.81 midweek, ending the Japanese yen's three-day decline. The currency received support from a weaker US dollar and lower oil prices amid signs of de-escalation in the Middle East.

The US confirmed that the ceasefire remains in place, that offensive operations have ended, and announced a pause in efforts to remove ships from the Strait of Hormuz. This is intended to buy time for a possible resumption of negotiations with Iran.

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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US 30 forecast: the index attempts to extend gains after a correction

The US 30 index continues to rise after a correction, retaining the potential to reach a new all-time high. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: the Federal Reserve policy rate remained at 3.75%
2. Market impact: the data is positive for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the interest rate steady at 3.75% can generally be viewed by the market as a neutral-to-mildly positive factor for the US 30 index, as the outcome fully matched both the forecast and the previous reading. For investors, this means no unexpected monetary policy tightening, reducing the risk of a sharp revaluation in large US equities.

This decision is crucial for the US 30, as many of the index companies operate in mature industries and depend on the overall health of consumer demand, investment, and the cost of capital.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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AUDUSD gears up for a surge as the market awaits Nonfarm Payrolls

The AUDUSD rate is awaiting the release of US employment data, with the price currently testing the 0.7225 level. Find out more in our analysis for 8 May 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 178 thousand, projected at 65 thousand
2. US unemployment rate: previously at 4.3%, projected at 4.3%
3. AUDUSD forecast for 8 May 2026: 0.7320 and 0.7190

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast shows that the Australian dollar is completing its correction after reaching its highest level this year. On Friday morning, quotes are consolidating around 0.7225.

The main driver of today’s volatility is another wave of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the divergence in monetary policy between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the US Federal Reserve.

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: there is a basis for growth, but more details are needed

Gold (XAUUSD) enters the week of 11–15 May near 4,700 USD per ounce after rebounding amid falling oil prices. Support came from rising expectations of a deal between the US and Iran: the market is reacting to diplomatic signals and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

1. Weekly performance: gold (XAUUSD) gained a foothold near 4,700 USD per ounce after rebounding mid-week
2. Support and resistance: on the daily chart, the structure shifted from bullish to corrective after the reversal
3. Fundamentals and outlook: the baseline scenario is sideways movement

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) ended last week near 4,700 USD per ounce after a strong mid-week rally. The market was bolstered by a sharp decline in oil prices amid hopes for a deal between the US and Iran. This reduced inflation risks and pressure from expectations of restrictive central bank policy.

Diplomacy remains the key driver. According to media reports, Washington sent Tehran via intermediaries a framework memorandum that could become a step towards ending the conflict and gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has already confirmed that it is reviewing the proposal, with a response expected in the coming days.

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Brent is back in positive territory: geopolitics is setting the course

Brent prices rose to 103.03 USD, with all eyes on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Discover more in our analysis for 12 May 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

1. Brent prices are climbing higher due to the ongoing Middle East conflict
2. The market is on edge and is increasing the risk premium as the US shifts its stance
3. Brent forecast for 12 May 2026: 103.30 and 106.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent quotes advanced to 103.03 USD per barrel on Tuesday, with the market supported by persistent concerns about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz following new statements from US President Donald Trump.

Trump said that the ceasefire between the US and Iran is in a critical state after Washington rejected Tehran’s latest peace proposal. This increased fears that the Strait of Hormuz may remain effectively closed for a prolonged period.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

GBPUSD needs a driver: the correction is over, but no new ideas have appeared

The GBPUSD pair is holding at 1.3535, with political scandals and the oil situation setting the terms. Find out more in our analysis for 13 May 2026.

GBPUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. The GBPUSD pair remains in a broad range, while politics is preventing the market from choosing a direction
2. The market does not rule out three rate hikes by the end of the year
3. GBPUSD forecast for 13 May 2026: 1.3500 or 1.3580

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate stood at 1.3535 midweek. This week, the pound pulled back from almost two-month highs as political uncertainty in the UK and the lack of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran are putting pressure on GBP.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that he does not intend to resign. This comes despite demands from more than 70 Labour Party MPs to step down following the party’s poor performance in the local elections.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: the index is correcting after reaching a new all-time high

The JP 225 stock index has completed its correction and is poised for a new all-time high. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: Japan’s services PMI came in at 51.0 in April
2. Market impact: the effect on the Japanese stock market is moderately negative

Fundamental analysis

The S&P Global Japan services PMI reading of 51.0 is a moderately cautious signal for the JP 225 index. The figure remains above the 50.0 level, indicating continued expansion in the services sector, but the actual result was below the forecast of 51.2 and noticeably lower than the previous reading of 53.4.

For the JP 225 index, the impact could be mixed, but with a moderately negative bias. On the one hand, the fact that the PMI remains above 50.0 suggests Japan’s services sector has not contracted, meaning the economy retains some resilience.

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US Tech forecast: the index hits a new all-time high

The US Tech index has reached another all-time high, marking one of the strongest streaks of trading sessions this year. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US inflation rate rose to 3.8% year-on-year in April
2. Market impact: the effect on the technology sector is mixed

Fundamental analysis

The US CPI release at 3.8% year-on-year, above the forecast of 3.7% and the previous reading of 3.3%, is a negative signal for the US Tech index. Official BLS data shows headline inflation accelerating, with core inflation excluding food and energy also up to 2.8% year-on-year from 2.6% the month before.

For the US Tech, such news is typically perceived as particularly sensitive, as technology stocks rely heavily on expectations for future earnings growth. When the inflation rate comes in above forecast, investors are more likely to revise their rate and bond yield expectations.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
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DE 40 forecast: the index is trading in a range amid increased volatility

The uptrend in the DE 40 stock index is unstable, and prices are more inclined to trade within a sideways range. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: Germany’s preliminary ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for May came in at -10.2
2. Market impact: the data creates a negative backdrop for the German stock market

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment reading was better than expected: the actual figure came in at -10.2 versus the forecast of -19.2 and the previous value of -17.2. Even though the indicator remains in negative territory, the improvement itself may be interpreted by the market as a sign of stabilizing sentiment among investors and analysts.

For the German equity market, this may act as a supportive factor, especially if investors begin to anticipate that the economy is gradually emerging from its weakest phase. An improvement in the ZEW index can increase interest in cyclical stocks, since the market often reacts in advance to shifts in expectations.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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US 500 forecast: the index has started a correction

After reaching a new all-time high, the US 500 index has started a correction, which may develop into a downtrend. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US CPI rose to 3.8% year-on-year in April
2. Market impact: the data has a moderately negative effect on the US stock market

Fundamental analysis

The increase in US annual inflation to 3.8%, above the forecast of 3.7% and the previous 3.3%, may have a moderately negative impact on the US 500 index. The data shows that inflationary pressures in the US economy are strengthening faster than expected, reducing the likelihood of imminent monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

For the US stock market overall, this news is a restraining factor. Higher inflation reduces consumers’ real purchasing power, increases companies’ costs, and worsens expectations for future profits.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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US 30 index forecast: the index has moved very close to its all-time high

The US 30 index approached its all-time high and entered a correction; the trend is highly unstable. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US CPI for April came in at 3.8% year-on-year
2. Market impact: the data is positive for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The acceleration of US annual inflation to 3.8% versus the forecast of 3.7% and the previous 3.3% is a negative macroeconomic signal for the market. Higher inflation increases concerns that price pressures will remain elevated longer than expected, meaning the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.

For the US 30 index, this news may have a moderately negative impact. The index includes large industrial, financial, consumer, and technology companies that are sensitive to changes in interest rates and expectations for economic growth.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
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JP 225 forecast: the index enters a downtrend

The JP 225 stock index broke below the support level and entered a downtrend. The JP 225 forecast for today is negative.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: Japan’s Q1 GDP rose by 0.5%
2. Market impact: the effect on the Japanese stock market is moderately positive

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s GDP growth of 0.5%, above the forecast of 0.4% and the previous 0.2%, is, overall, a moderately positive signal for the JP 225. The data indicates that Japan’s economy is expanding faster than expected, meaning corporate revenue, domestic demand, and business activity may receive additional support.

For the JP 225, such data could become a growth driver, since stronger-than-expected macroeconomic releases typically improve investor sentiment towards cyclical stocks. However, the market reaction may be mixed.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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US Tech forecast: the index is correcting

After reaching a new all-time high, the US Tech index started to decline, but the global trend remains bullish. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: the preliminary US services PMI came in at 50.9 in May
2. Market impact: the current data has a mixed effect on the technology sector

Fundamental analysis

A drop in the US services PMI to 50.9 points, compared to the forecast of 51.1 and the previous 51.0, is a moderately negative signal for the market. The indicator remains above the 50-point threshold, indicating continued growth in business activity, but a weaker-than-expected figure suggests the pace of expansion is slowing.

For the US Tech, the short-term reaction may be moderately negative or mixed. If investors interpret the data as a sign of weakening demand in the economy, pressure could increase on stocks of companies involved in corporate IT spending, cloud services, advertising, and software.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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DE 40 forecast: the index continues to trade within a sideways trend

The upward trend in the DE 40 stock index has shifted into a sideways movement, although the tendency towards growth remains intact. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: Germany’s GDP for Q1 2026 increased by 0.3%
2. Market impact: the data creates a positive backdrop for the German equity market

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, in line with forecasts of 0.3% and above the previous reading of 0.2%, represents a moderately positive signal for the DE 40 index. The fact that the figure matched expectations means the market is unlikely to receive a strong surprise-driven impulse.

For the German equity market, such statistics appear generally favourable, although the effect will likely remain restrained. Since the actual figure matched forecasts, a significant portion of positive expectations may already have been priced in.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: the index hits new all-time high

The US 500 index surged to a record high following news of a possible end to the conflict between the US and Iran. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: the preliminary US manufacturing PMI came in at 55.3 in May
2. Market impact: this data has a moderately positive impact on the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The US manufacturing PMI reading of 55.3 points, above the forecast of 53.8 and the previous reading of 54.5, indicates a more robust expansion of business activity in the industrial sector. For the US 500 index, this news may generally prove moderately positive, as it confirms the resilience of the US economy and shows that the corporate sector continues to maintain demand, production orders, and business activity.

For the broad US equity market, the effect may prove mixed, but with a positive bias. On the one hand, a strong PMI supports demand for equities, especially in cyclical sectors, as investors see signs of healthy economic momentum.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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US 30 index forecast: the index reaches a new all-time high

The US 30 index hit a new all-time high and then began to correct. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: preliminary US manufacturing PMI came in at 55.3 in May
2. Market impact: the data is positive for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The US manufacturing PMI was significantly better than expected, coming in at 55.3, above the forecast of 53.8 and the previous reading of 54.5. This indicates an acceleration in business activity in the industry and confirms that the US manufacturing sector remains in an expansion phase, since readings above 50.0 are typically interpreted as growth.

This data could be supportive for the US 30 index, as large industrial, financial, consumer, and infrastructure companies account for a significant proportion of its composition.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team