"You cannot make money (in the long run) from a price chart alone" | Page 2 | Forex Factory

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"You cannot make money (in the long run) from a price chart alone"

  • #21
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:11pm Jan 13, 2011 8:11pm
As I said in another of your threads Cindy, study the charts comprehensively, and they make sense. It's hard work however, largely intuitive and one has to get to the point where every data point says something to you. In fact, one should be at the point where one needs no indicators on ones charts and fibonaccis, for example, can be seen in a candle/bar or sequnce of candles/bars without actually being inserted.

One can say the same for whatever works for you....orderflow for example. One has to get to the point where the particular data source becomes yours. It takes a lot of time and hard work. IMHO. And persistence until you are able to read the data as one would, for example read traffic when driving.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #22
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:41pm Jan 13, 2011 8:41pm
Not so, you can indeed make money using only price charts. There are patterns that keep repeating themselves. If you can make that your edge and at the same time not have any expectations, be aware that the market can do anything at any given time and that every price movement is random, and that even though you have an edge, there will be losing trades, which you should think of as a business expense, and if you have the discipline to follow your system, your edge will give you more/bigger wins than losers and make you a consistent winner in the long run.
  • #23
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:53pm Jan 13, 2011 8:53pm
From the title of this thread, I thought this was going to be a discussion of Technical Analysis versus Fundamental Analysis. It appears it is more a re-tread (no offense) of the Indicator versus Naked Trading debate. This is the wrong debate to be having.

Successful traders regardless of method all share an understanding of the underlying principles of successful trading.

You have heard them before and dismiss them as cliché.

"Surrender to the market. Want what it wants".

"Never marry yourself to a position".

"Learn to love your losses".

"It's not the return on capital that matters as much as the return of capital".

"Being right and sitting tight, that's where the money is".

"Cut your losses short and let your profits run".

"Plan your trade, trade your plan".

"Take your ego out of trading".

"Discipline".

Yes, somewhere there is a very successful indicator trader. I promise you that he or she did not discover the holy grail or find the magical settings for a Macd. He or she has moved beyond the method of trading into the essence of trading.

So too has the successful naked trader. Sure, taking the clutter off the charts may have helped in seeing price more clearly. But that in and of itself doesn't "turn the light on".

We can spend all our time debating which camp is better, or we can ask what are the qualities and beliefs of those in either camp that are successful? To focus on the former takes us off track and is futile. Which may possibly be the way the successful ones like it.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #24
  • Jan 13, 2011 10:41pm Jan 13, 2011 10:41pm
[quote=HiddenGap;4312956]From the title of this thread, I thought this was going to be a discussion of Technical Analysis versus Fundamental ..... "]
Good earthy no BS reply.
Biggest joker
  • #25
  • Jan 14, 2011 2:34am Jan 14, 2011 2:34am
Quoting hanover
Cindy, I'm guessing that the trader you're referring to is D........

Anyway, I just wanted to suggest the following........ Supposing a trader tries in vain for X years to find a chart-based method that's profitable, but then learns something completely different (for example, an orderflow-related technique) that leads to his eventual success. Now that he's profitable, there's no need for him to continue with his chart-based research. Hence he reaches a personal conclusion that charts are impotent, while the other method is pure gold.

However,...
Thanks David I tend to agree and calso can relate to what you're sayig

@ your signature
Time hides Nothing
  • #26
  • Edited 2:56am Jan 14, 2011 2:44am | Edited 2:56am
@ the above replies...

Its interesting becasue different people seems to be taking the first post in different ways...

This wasn't meant to be a "how do you become profitable type thread" more of "open your mind" type thread about other means of travel other and additional than the conventional means of transport if that makes sense.

Sure indicators dont work for some but whats the REAL reason, the mechanics behind their failure...

Some poeple don't know much about orderflow - but why? Whats it take to truley understand?

Charts dont work for some - so what are they doing wrongly that others aren't?

Just want to step away from the normal "indicators lag", "price charts have no meaning", "Edges fail over time" "Orderflow is hard" type thing and look deeper at the market mechanics behind different things.

I thought Porkpies post was great.

Anyway, feel free to just let this on die and thanks for your replies
Time hides Nothing
  • #27
  • Jan 14, 2011 3:02am Jan 14, 2011 3:02am
Quoting Ulterior
As a man with an academical background ( a rare occasion here ) I find it funny when markets are viewed from traders perspective only.
Academics with an ounce of understanding of markets are even rarer than skilled traders.
  • #28
  • Edited 3:20am Jan 14, 2011 3:10am | Edited 3:20am
Quoting Mr J
Academics with an ounce of understanding of markets are even rarer than skilled traders.
If they offered day trading at University I know what I'd be studying right now! But I guess if that was the case we'd run out of doctors and lawyers and lomg term growth fund managers lol.

I'm doing Financial Planning and trading is a dirty word! I dare not mention it anymore.

I've also read that academics struggle (more so than non acad.) in the tradingfield as their minds get wired to a logical way of thinking that just doesnt exist so much in the markets. BUt of course this is a big generalisation. Maybe the truth is that they just dont the time to learn like others. Like a Doctor for example
Time hides Nothing
  • #29
  • Jan 14, 2011 3:44am Jan 14, 2011 3:44am
Quoting CindyXXXX
I've also read that academics struggle (more so than non acad.) in the tradingfield as their minds get wired to a logical way of thinking that just doesnt exist so much in the markets.
It's not an issue of logic. I would expect most skilled traders to be highly logical.

Quote
If they offered day trading at University I know what I'd be studying right now!
And who would be teaching you? The failed trader who cannot do so is forced to teach? Sure, there will be some skilled traders willing to teach others, but they are exceptional.

Quote
Maybe the truth is that they just dont the time to learn like others
Most others don't learn either!

Quote
I'm doing Financial Planning and trading is a dirty word! I dare not mention it anymore.
Funny, I thought "Financial Planning" was a dirty couple of words these days .
  • #30
  • Jan 14, 2011 3:48am Jan 14, 2011 3:48am
Quoting Mr J
It's not an issue of logic. I would expect most skilled traders to be highly logical.
.
(you would think!) Maybe logic was the wrong word - I agree

Quoting Mr J
Funny, I thought "Financial Planning" was a dirty couple of words these days .
Ha! You're not wrong - commisions have just been banned for FP's in Australia so that will give the industry more credit over time (one would hope)

Quoting Mr J
And who would be teaching you? The failed trader who cannot do so is forced to teach? Sure, there will be some skilled traders willing to teach others, but they are exceptional.

.
In a perfect world hey!
Time hides Nothing
  • #31
  • Jan 14, 2011 4:26am Jan 14, 2011 4:26am
Quoting Porkpie
Volume traded at the bid and ask provides a huge advantage in trading imo. Unfortunately, this info is not available in Forex but is available in Forex Futures. If you are trading just price based indicators (which is all you can do in Forex), you are missing a stack of other info and are thus not getting the full picture of a market. Being able to analyze average trade size and seeing where the amateaurs and professionals come into the market alongside professional accumilation and distribution is extremely useful. All that being said, successful...
This is an excellent post by PP - best one so far in this thread. Neatly described concepts, though with significant implications for those stuck in the 'systems' rut....
  • #32
  • Jan 14, 2011 4:47am Jan 14, 2011 4:47am
Knowing where you are in the daily cycle helps alot. If one is just looking at charts and waiting for a ma crossover, thats an invitation for failure. If I were to get a buy signal and the 200 ma is a few pips above, I would rethink that buy signal. Another problem is when one has a successful way of trading and it works for along time, then the markets change. Their great system doesn't work anymore and they refuse to adapt to the market. I believe that one has to come into trading with an open mind to be even good at it. Just my opinion....
  • #33
  • Jan 14, 2011 5:28am Jan 14, 2011 5:28am
IMHO:
I would submit, that it makes no difference, to what methodology one is subscribed.
It is good to have a faith in one's method, it definitely helps.
Methods serve just one purpose, and that is to focus ones intuition.
And after sufficient time and effort was spent, trader develops a "feel" for the markets, and most likely thank's method for his/hers success.

There is a reason why purely mathematical/mechanical approaches fail after time.
  • #34
  • May 11, 2026 12:04pm May 11, 2026 12:04pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
(Before you get defensive I am not stating absolutes just quoting something I was told by allegedly one of the best traders on this forum.) "You cannot make money (in the long run) from a price chart alone" Well.. of course you CAN but in terms of getting a true edge as in TRUE INSIGHT/ Valuable information from a price chart, I have been told by one of the most respected and looked up to trades (I won't mention any names) here that it is not possible... Seeing as a price chart is a big part of my trading I of course did not want to believe this...
Honestly, I think this is exactly the point many traders eventually arrive at after years studying markets.
Price Action is extremely important. Execution happens on the chart. But at some point you start realizing that candles are often the final visible reaction to forces that were already developing underneath long before retail fully notices them.
That is why so many different schools of trading eventually end up exploring similar ideas from different angles:

  1. Wyckoff studies accumulation/distribution,
  2. SMC studies liquidity and institutional behavior,
  3. Volume analysis studies participation,
  4. Macro studies capital flows,
  5. COT studies positioning and exposure.

In the end, all of them are trying to answer the same question:
“What is the larger money behind the market actually doing?”
For me personally, that was the biggest shift in perspective.
I stopped looking at price as the entire story, and started looking at it as the visible expression of deeper structural forces underneath the market.

  • #35
  • May 11, 2026 8:26pm May 11, 2026 8:26pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
(Before you get defensive I am not stating absolutes just quoting something I was told by allegedly one of the best traders on this forum.) "You cannot make money (in the long run) from a price chart alone" Well.. of course you CAN but in terms of getting a true edge as in TRUE INSIGHT/ Valuable information from a price chart, I have been told by one of the most respected and looked up to trades (I won't mention any names) here that it is not possible... Seeing as a price chart is a big part of my trading I of course did not want to believe this...
I think charts alone can work to some extent, but the real edge probably comes from how you interpret them + risk management. Two traders can look at the same chart and get completely different results.
  • #36
  • May 18, 2026 4:12am May 18, 2026 4:12am
Can you explain more what the hell that mean ? I am newbi
  • #37
  • May 19, 2026 7:56pm May 19, 2026 7:56pm
this depends on the trading style. it can still make money by chart analysis.
  • #38
  • Last Post: May 21, 2026 2:27am May 21, 2026 2:27am
I made money trading only using technical analysis and charting. It's all possible!
Furuku
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