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  • #41
  • May 18, 2026 8:53am May 18, 2026 8:53am
Quoting FlyingTurtle
{quote} Yep, the ceasefire is looming, and lower oil prices means less USD is needed globally to buy oil, so the USD should go down. Add to that a general diversification away from USD by countries that Trump has pissed off. On the bullish side we have hawkish Warsh and a fed board freaked out about rising inflation. They will seize every opportunity to cheerlead the USD higher by threatening rate hikes. It's a tough call on which force will win.
I mean, it's been going up a lot throughout this whole mess with Iran, but it's not really speaking like it should on the daily. Maybe the effects are still around? and we need to wait for this thing to fully end before we can have a bearish DXY?
  • #42
  • May 18, 2026 9:15am May 18, 2026 9:15am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} > "A virus perfectly evolved to attack humans... hallmarks of lab creation... Ft Detrick's germ lab had containment violations" > "Someone with security clearance absconded with it and set it loose on 3 continents" > "The team had already engineered covid long before 2019. It was basically sitting on a shelf. Only one or two people needed to know." > "My theory isn't reliant upon a man-made virus... Man-made would certainly add credibility to my theory, but a failure of containment at Fort Detrick could just as easily involve a naturally...
Welp, that's what W0lfram blowing a fuse looks like.

Your theory is a virus just happened to pop out of a jungle in china (because it happens 3-4 times per year you say), perfectly highly evolved to attack humans (also common, you say), perfectly timed to disrupt the election of the most hated president in history (by reducing his favorability, ushering in mail-in voting, and killing older conservatives, yet you say it's just coincidence), having the hallmarks of lab creation (positive charges next to each other, which you say means nothing), while coincidentally and completely unrelated Ft Detrick's germ lab was shuttered by the CDC for containment violations simultaneously as a retirement center 50 miles away had a mysterious respiratory disease outbreak the very same month of June 2019.

That theory turns Occam's razor on its head.

My theory is someone with security clearance simply grabbed a virus known to be infectious to humans (whether man-made or not) and that disproportionately affects older conservatives while sparing younger liberals, released it on at least 3 continents to prevent the easy containment we saw with SARS1 and MERS, then sat back and watched the show.

My theory is simple, credible, explains everything. No miracle viruses just happen to pop out of the jungle readily adapted to attack humans. No coincidences of germ labs being shut down that I need to explain. No need to explain why the virus affects Asians less when it originated in China. No need to explain why it wasn't contained as easily as SARS1 and MERS. No need to explain why a once-in-a-century pandemic happened 1 year before the election of the most hated president in history.

But it conflicts with your political bias so you resort to ad homs and mental acrobatics in attempt to discredit my simple elegance and futility defend your complicated series of improbabilities. And somehow you think that makes you smart lol
  • #43
  • May 18, 2026 9:22am May 18, 2026 9:22am
Quoting Austinxoxo
{quote} I mean, it's been going up a lot throughout this whole mess with Iran, but it's not really speaking like it should on the daily. Maybe the effects are still around? and we need to wait for this thing to fully end before we can have a bearish DXY?
Oil is sold nearly exclusively for USD because that's how the system is set up, so when oil goes up in price, people around the world need to find more USD to buy the expensive oil. Also Trump went to China and made some deals that result in China potentially buying stuff from the US, which they will need USD to do. Last Friday there was a big rally in USDCNH, suggesting China was accumulating USD to buy US goods. Who knows how much they will actually buy though, because they usually buy less than they promised. And they have other sources now that they can't leave hanging.

So whether or not the USD goes up or down depends on what China decides to do, what Trump and Iran decide to do, what Warsh and the fed decide to do. I guess that is what we need to figure out in this thread.
  • #44
  • Edited 9:41am May 18, 2026 9:25am | Edited 9:41am
Perhaps the funniest thing about all this is that a leak from a US lab caused a small outbreak in some random nearby nursing home while the main epidemic was in China. Why can't Deepseek tell you about the china-virus that escaped from the Wuhan lab?

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My theory is simple, credible, explains everything. No miracle viruses just happen to pop out of the jungle readily adapted to attack humans.
Quote
That theory turns Occam's razor on its head.
Lol. How fucked up is that?
extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence (c)
Trying to outsource it to china ai only makes things worse.

What's my political bias btw?
Air force
  • #45
  • May 18, 2026 9:29am May 18, 2026 9:29am
Quoting FlyingTurtle
{quote} Oil is sold nearly exclusively for USD because that's how the system is set up, so when oil goes up in price, people around the world need to find more USD to buy the expensive oil. Also Trump went to China and made some deals that result in China potentially buying stuff from the US, which they will need USD to do. Last Friday there was a big rally in USDCNH, suggesting China was accumulating USD to buy US goods. Who knows how much they will actually buy though, because they usually buy less than they promised. And they have other sources...
Wow, I never even imagined having perspectives like yours, it's really impressive how much you know... Me I always focus on price and whatever the hottest news is currently. If the news falls within my domain of expertise, then I can act up on it, if not, I'll stay on the sidelines. What are your takes on the new fed chair tho? even tho he hasn't been sworn in as of yet. There are rumors going around that Mr. Orangeman is messing up price action deliberately that way Warsh can be our Trading Jesus, the one who turns chaos into tranquility
  • #46
  • May 18, 2026 9:59am May 18, 2026 9:59am
Quoting Austinxoxo
{quote} Wow, I never even imagined having perspectives like yours, it's really impressive how much you know... Me I always focus on price and whatever the hottest news is currently. If the news falls within my domain of expertise, then I can act up on it, if not, I'll stay on the sidelines. What are your takes on the new fed chair tho? even tho he hasn't been sworn in as of yet. There are rumors going around that Mr. Orangeman is messing up price action deliberately that way Warsh can be our Trading Jesus, the one who turns chaos into tranquility...
I feel like I don't know very much for how long I've been doing it. I should have taken some college courses in the beginning rather than relying on youtube videos lol

I'm not very impressed with Warsh because he says inflation is a choice (choice of the fed, meaning they print and we get inflation), but the inflation we see is from supply restraints with the war, from covid, from lobbyists and government making regulations to hurt competition to mega corps. Beef is 80% controlled by 4 companies. Pet food is nearly all 2 companies. What the heck does the fed have to do with that? What does the fed have to do with the war? Honestly, I like Powell better from what I can tell, because he rightly blames inflation on supply and recognizes our employment numbers are overinflated. Warsh seems like one of the youtube guys I regret having my mind poisoned with.

No doubt Orangeman is messing up our trades to do his own insider trading. Hopefully the next administration puts people in jail over it.

I suck at picking market directions so don't ask me lol. I feel like I have everything figured out then the market goes the opposite way, and I'm like wtf lol
  • #47
  • May 18, 2026 10:12am May 18, 2026 10:12am
Quoting W0lfram
Perhaps the funniest thing about all this is that a leak from a US lab caused a small outbreak in some random nearby nursing home while the main epidemic was in China.
I don't think "leak" means someone left a window open and viruses wafted out towards a nursing home. "Leak" means something is missing, unaccounted for, a vial is gone, or something of that nature that the CDC discovered upon their inspection. I don't know how they sorted it out before reopening the lab, but I know they are not going to admit someone ran off with some coronavirus, even if they know it's missing.

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Why can't Deepseek tell you about the china-virus that escaped from the Wuhan lab?

I don't know. I never asked. But I do remember reading an article from a China news site back when Trump was blaming China for the release, and China suggested Trump to look no farther than Fort Detrick. If China released it, they are not going to put it in their own front yard. Someone foreign did it to make it look like it came from China because everyone wants to believe that.

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Lol. How fucked up is that? extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence (c)

That's one of my favorite Carl Sagan quotes. I think the extraordinary claim is that a virus popped out of an Asian jungle, highly suited to infect non-Asian people, having suspicious oddities in the spike protein, perfectly timed to disrupt the election of a hated president, and Fort Detrick being shuttered is total coincidence. To me, that is an incredible claim that no sensible person would buy without extraordinary evidence supporting it.

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What's my political bias btw?

Honestly I have no idea. I'm just guessing why you're being stubborn. I think my theory is very sensible and doesn't deserve the ridicule you're giving it.
  • #48
  • May 18, 2026 10:30am May 18, 2026 10:30am
Quoting FlyingTurtle
{quote} I feel like I don't know very much for how long I've been doing it. I should have taken some college courses in the beginning rather than relying on youtube videos lol I'm not very impressed with Warsh because he says inflation is a choice (choice of the fed, meaning they print and we get inflation), but the inflation we see is from supply restraints with the war, from covid, from lobbyists and government making regulations to hurt competition to mega corps. Beef is 80% controlled by 4 companies. Pet food is nearly all 2 companies. What...
Directionally speaking tho, DXY is currently range bound between two daily inefficiencies, moving up and down, and making things look really nasty. Even so, I am looking for possible gravitation to 97.625 (DXY - TVC)

But in all truths, we are currently suffering thanks to pure pettiness, a sabotage of someone's job because he refuses to cooperate...

But knowing that Warsh will cooperate tho, hopefully we will get better price delivery then.
  • #49
  • May 18, 2026 10:34am May 18, 2026 10:34am
Quoting FlyingTurtle
{quote} I'm just guessing why you're being stubborn. I think my theory is very sensible and doesn't deserve the ridicule you're giving it.
Why I'm being stubborn not accepting your 'theory'? -> some political bias. Funny reasoning.
I operate with scientific evidence and logic
If you had critical and logical thinking, you would have thought about how to falsify your theory.
E.g search for spikes in respiratory diseases in China in summer (or even from May I don't remember) and onwards in 2019. I know you'll find them bc I did in 2020
Your conversation with another conspiracy theorist who adheres to a different theory would also be very funny to read haha.. some do believe it's 5G
Air force
  • #50
  • May 18, 2026 10:47am May 18, 2026 10:47am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Why I'm being stubborn not accepting your 'theory'? -> some political bias. Funny reasoning. I operate with scientific evidence and logic If you had critical and logical thinking, you would have thought about how to falsify your theory. E.g search for spikes in respiratory diseases in China in summer and onwards in 2019. I know you'll find them bc I did in 2020 Your conversation with another conspiracy theorist who adheres to a different theory would also be very funny to read haha.. some do believe it's 5G
Guys, we are all traders here. And traders look for patterns. Personally tho, I think there's something more to this than coincidence, even tho scientifically and logically, it does not make sense (But in all truths, those can be manipulated).

I have never been a man of science, tho I used to be. I think if we choose to open our eyes, and see that the color on the wall is green, rather than keeping our eyes shut and trusting some "man of science" to twist our mind that the color is blue, but lighting makes it green...

All and all what I'm tryna say is, you believe in science, and that's good. But I want you to look at the pattern that's there really... Covid came out in 2019, then we immediately have some sorts of vaccine IMMEDIATELY after... It can be scientifically correct, but logically, something is off about it.

Ebola, HIV, Cholera have been around for decades, yet no vaccine. Or at least no vaccine 3 to 6 months later... but now, look at Hanta Virus...

There is a saying that goes, first they will try to silence you... if it doesn't work, then they will try and throw you in jail... if that doesn't work either, then they will try and kill you. If they don't however, all hell will break loose

Trump is the victim in this... Only the truth shall set you free
  • #51
  • Edited 11:25am May 18, 2026 11:13am | Edited 11:25am
Quoting Austinxoxo
{quote} Guys, we are all traders here. And traders look for patterns. Personally tho, I think there's something more to this than coincidence, even tho scientifically and logically, it does not make sense (But in all truths, those can be manipulated). I have never been a man of science, tho I used to be. I think if we choose to open our eyes, and see that the color on the wall is green, rather than keeping our eyes shut and trusting some "man of science" to twist our mind that the color is blue, but lighting makes it green... All and all what I'm...
Quote
some "man of science" to twist our mind that the color is blue
Quote
All and all what I'm tryna say is, you believe in science, and that's good.
Science is not a faith system, it's a method, self-correcting method. It's scientifically literate to be skeptical of specific claims than to accept them wholesale

Quote
I think if we choose to open our eyes [...]
That's useful to have a head on shoulders. there's also a saying that if you open your mind too wide, your brain will fall out. That;s what happening with all kinds of quacks (pseudoscientists, conspirologists, etc)

Quote
Covid came out in 2019, then we immediately have some sorts of vaccine IMMEDIATELY after... It can be scientifically correct, but logically, something is off about it.
The mRNA platform had been in development for over a decade before covid. Researchers had already worked on mRNA vaccines for MERS since 2012, so the spike protein target was already partially characterized.
So covid got a pre-built technological framework, massive parallel funding, removing the usual sequential trial bottlenecks and regulatory agencies running reviews concurrently rather than waiting for full submission packages. Compressed bureaucracy exists everywhere

HIV mutates roughly a million times faster than coronaviruses and directly infects and destroys CD4+ T cells, the very cells that coordinate the immune response a vaccine needs to generate. It attacks the system you're trying to activate...

Re patterns recognition: there's a thing called apophenia, so watch out..
Air force
  • #52
  • May 18, 2026 11:19am May 18, 2026 11:19am
Quoting Austinxoxo
{quote} Directionally speaking tho, DXY is currently range bound between two daily inefficiencies, moving up and down, and making things look really nasty. Even so, I am looking for possible gravitation to 97.625 (DXY - TVC) But in all truths, we are currently suffering thanks to pure pettiness, a sabotage of someone's job because he refuses to cooperate... But knowing that Warsh will cooperate tho, hopefully we will get better price delivery then.
I wouldn't count on Warsh cooperating. Trump always appoints people then regrets it and tries to find a way to fire them because they do their job rather than being loyal.

DXY looks like a bear flag to me. Big decline followed by sideways. https://alchemymarkets.com/education...-flag-pattern/

But I think TA (tech analysis) only works if other traders are reacting to it. TA mostly works in hindsight lol
  • #53
  • May 18, 2026 11:36am May 18, 2026 11:36am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Why I'm being stubborn not accepting your 'theory'? -> some political bias. Funny reasoning. I operate with scientific evidence and logic If you had critical and logical thinking, you would have thought about how to falsify your theory. E.g search for spikes in respiratory diseases in China in summer (or even from May I don't remember) and onwards in 2019. I know you'll find them bc I did in 2020 Your conversation with another conspiracy theorist who adheres to a different theory would also be very funny to read haha.. some do believe it's...
You're stubbornly dismissive and ridiculing of a sound theory for reasons that aren't immediately obvious, but could be a political bias, personality disorder, or just plain ole inability to be wrong. You don't have to accept the theory, but admitting it's sound and plausible is sufficient to be relieved of the stubborn stigma.

What would falsify my theory is an outbreak significantly before June 2019.
  • #54
  • May 18, 2026 11:39am May 18, 2026 11:39am
Quoting Austinxoxo
Covid came out in 2019, then we immediately have some sorts of vaccine IMMEDIATELY after...
Yes that's another good point that should raise eyebrows.
  • #55
  • May 18, 2026 11:46am May 18, 2026 11:46am
Quoting FlyingTurtle
{quote} I wouldn't count on Warsh cooperating. Trump always appoints people then regrets it and tries to find a way to fire them because they do their job rather than being loyal. DXY looks like a bear flag to me. Big decline followed by sideways. https://alchemymarkets.com/education...-flag-pattern/ But I think TA (tech analysis) only works if other traders are reacting to it. TA mostly works in hindsight lol
Fair point, but from what I heard, they go back a long way

Point and case is, the pettiness will stop. Look around, Trump is tweeting everyday just to sabotage Powell's job lol
  • #56
  • May 18, 2026 11:47am May 18, 2026 11:47am
Quoting FlyingTurtle
{quote} Yes that's another good point that should raise eyebrows.
He doesn't want to open his eyes. He wants to keep his eyes closed, then have scientists tell him what color is on the wall, and he will believe whatever they say
  • #57
  • May 18, 2026 11:49am May 18, 2026 11:49am
Quoting FlyingTurtle
{quote} You're stubbornly dismissive and ridiculing of a sound theory for reasons that aren't immediately obvious, but could be a political bias, personality disorder, or just plain ole inability to be wrong. You don't have to accept the theory, but admitting it's sound and plausible is sufficient to be relieved of the stubborn stigma. What would falsify my theory is an outbreak significantly before June 2019.
Ridiculing bc it's ridiculous
Origin has been shown, you're just immune to evidence. You connected some events without causality and voilą - a sound theory, if someone doesn't accept it -> offer your house in Nebraska lol

Your theory was started by China btw, maybe it's your political bias?
Air force
  • #58
  • May 18, 2026 11:49am May 18, 2026 11:49am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} {quote} {quote} Science is not a faith system, it's a method, self-correcting method. It's scientifically literate to be skeptical of specific claims than to accept them wholesale {quote} That's useful to have a head on shoulders. there's also a saying that if you open your mind too wide, your brain will fall out. That;s what happening with all kinds of quacks (pseudoscientists, conspirologists, etc) {quote} The mRNA platform had been in development for over a decade before covid. Researchers had already worked on mRNA vaccines for MERS...
This world is made of so much mysteries. Mysteries that transcends basic human comprehension. The fact that the virus itself has versions should already tell you a lot. Look at the facts...

That virus literally vanished the minute Biden got to office, now that he is out of office, we hear about another one
  • #59
  • May 18, 2026 11:50am May 18, 2026 11:50am
Quoting W0lfram
Re patterns recognition: there's a thing called apophenia, so watch out..
I suspect we're likely to agree that chart patterns are just random noise with little predictive value unless other traders are reacting to them in the same way, or else they're snares constructed by bots "painting the tape" to sucker traders in before taking the price the other way.

The breakdown in EURUSD below 1.162 I "knew" was going to happen and then rally back up because I see that so often that it's almost conditional for the price to rise. I call it a trap but could be my conspiracy mind lol

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  • #60
  • May 18, 2026 11:52am May 18, 2026 11:52am
Quoting Austinxoxo
{quote} He doesn't want to open his eyes. He wants to keep his eyes closed, then have scientists tell him what color is on the wall, and he will believe whatever they say
Another jelly-brain. Go investigate your question by yourself with eyes wide open, please
Air force
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