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The COT report

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 10, 2006 4:15pm Dec 10, 2006 4:15pm
here is the recent COT report from the CME dated Dec. 5th, released Dec. 8th. (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm)

As one can see, for the EUR FX, there are HUGE short positions taken by the "commercial" side while substantially big positions favoring the long side taken by the "non-commercial".

When reading the COT report for intra day trading or to get a glimpse of an idea for the up coming week, which side (non-commercial/commercial) is used to gauge this?

Sentimentally speaking, if there are huge long positions and logically very little short positions, would it be wise to think that a reversal would be near?
  • #2
  • Dec 10, 2006 4:58pm Dec 10, 2006 4:58pm
Quoting Trader1580
here is the recent COT report from the CME dated Dec. 5th, released Dec. 8th. (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm)

As one can see, for the EUR FX, there are HUGE short positions taken by the "commercial" side while substantially big positions favoring the long side taken by the "non-commercial".

When reading the COT report for intra day trading or to get a glimpse of an idea for the up coming week, which side (non-commercial/commercial) is used to gauge this?

Sentimentally speaking, if there are huge long positions and logically very little short positions, would it be wise to think that a reversal would be near?
All I can say is, I've been burned a couple times trying to follow COT data. commercial traders have deep pockets..... I don't.

It's good information to know but I don't put much merit on it when it comes to day trading. It may take a month or more for the CT's to be in the money.
  • #3
  • Dec 10, 2006 5:03pm Dec 10, 2006 5:03pm
http://www.timingcharts.com/index.aspx

Here are some cot report charts, maybe help visulize things a little better,
the default opens the e mini but scrol up the list and you will find the currencies, you can also put studies on the chart.
hope this is usefull to you.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #4
  • Dec 10, 2006 5:19pm Dec 10, 2006 5:19pm
the timing charts are much more versatile. In essence, do you think knowing the weekly report produced by the CFTC will gauge next week's macro movement in day trading?
  • #5
  • Dec 10, 2006 5:30pm Dec 10, 2006 5:30pm
it should give you a better feel for the major trend direction and strength of the trend.....
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #6
  • Dec 10, 2006 6:10pm Dec 10, 2006 6:10pm
Do not look short term. Commercial traders are content holding positions for a while. For instance, if they are short now.. they will not mind holding 2,3,4 weeks for the euro to move down. I find it humerous that spec. traders dont hold positions, instead choosing to take a big loss. I doubt the bank traders do this.. though I am not at all familiar with bank trading.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #7
  • Dec 10, 2006 6:17pm Dec 10, 2006 6:17pm
Quoting StockKJay
Do not look short term. Commercial traders are content holding positions for a while. For instance, if they are short now.. they will not mind holding 2,3,4 weeks for the euro to move down. I find it humerous that spec. traders dont hold positions, instead choosing to take a big loss. I doubt the bank traders do this.. though I am not at all familiar with bank trading.
so in the COT report, which side should we as day traders pay more attention to for imminent action such as next week or so? There's also a category called total, which is the total of commercial and non-commercial...
  • #8
  • Dec 10, 2006 6:24pm Dec 10, 2006 6:24pm
Quoting Trader1580
here is the recent COT report from the CME dated Dec. 5th, released Dec. 8th. (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm)

As one can see, for the EUR FX, there are HUGE short positions taken by the "commercial" side while substantially big positions favoring the long side taken by the "non-commercial".

When reading the COT report for intra day trading or to get a glimpse of an idea for the up coming week, which side (non-commercial/commercial) is used to gauge this?
http://www.safehaven.com/article-3132.htm

Summary: Commercials are the ones you should be paying attention to. They often signal a reversal.
  • #9
  • Dec 10, 2006 6:35pm Dec 10, 2006 6:35pm
Quoting Trader1580
so in the COT report, which side should we as day traders pay more attention to for imminent action such as next week or so? There's also a category called total, which is the total of commercial and non-commercial...
I do not know if there is a way to anticipate next weeks action using COT. You have to remember that the numbers, contracts etc are compiled from Tuesday and are not released until Friday near close. That delay alone could hurt you.

If you use them focus on the commercial positions, dont trade heavy and hold a position until the commercials disagree with your orders.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #10
  • Dec 10, 2006 6:46pm Dec 10, 2006 6:46pm
http://img82.imageshack.us/img82/7096/indexga1.png
If you look at the chart the commercials seem to always be opisite the trend.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #11
  • Dec 10, 2006 7:25pm Dec 10, 2006 7:25pm
Yeh johnedoe, maybe thats where 4xfox went wrong. You must trade on the opposite side to the commercials.
  • #12
  • Dec 10, 2006 7:35pm Dec 10, 2006 7:35pm
I read from many sources that non-commercial speculators are the hedge funds, etc... and from charts, they are the ones who follow the currencies. Commercials, on the other hand, are hedging and are looking for long term...
  • #13
  • Dec 11, 2006 7:54am Dec 11, 2006 7:54am
Hi Guys


Just my 5 pips.

Commercials are the farmers ,importers,exporters etc.Non commercials(big Speculators such as banks and large account managers) are your big traders and I do believe that they are the one's that are more qualified to know/guess where the market is going.

IMHO always follow the non-commercials.

Cheers
  • #14
  • Dec 11, 2006 8:24am Dec 11, 2006 8:24am
I have the Cot Excel file , but i dont know how to use it or what can i do with it !
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • #15
  • Dec 11, 2006 8:29am Dec 11, 2006 8:29am
Quoting MaXeY
I have the Cot Excel file , but i dont know how to use it or what can i do with it !
post it here, I'll def. take a look.
  • #16
  • Dec 11, 2006 8:36am Dec 11, 2006 8:36am
Quoting Trader1580
post it here, I'll def. take a look.
Sure, i'll post email to the guy who sent it to me and ask him to share it.
Please wait...
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • #17
  • Dec 11, 2006 9:29am Dec 11, 2006 9:29am
I emailed him, so as soon he's replay i take screenshot of this excel file..
Attached Image
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • #18
  • Edited 12:50pm Dec 11, 2006 12:43pm | Edited 12:50pm
Here is a site that offers COT data charts

http://www.freecotcharts.com/

COT data is very effective as to where the market is going , maybe not tomorrow, next week, or even next month........BUT they are always right.....
eventually....

just trade of a daily or weekly chart and u will see it happen...

I should add that the COT data is for the futures market but the bias can be applied to the forex......just be sure that u understand when for example u see that the Comm. traders are "long" the yen........that if paired with usd you would have to short the usd/jpy in the forex market for the same effect and to be on the right side of the trade......

regards fxloot
  • #19
  • Dec 11, 2006 1:04pm Dec 11, 2006 1:04pm
Quoting fxloot
Here is a site that offers COT data charts

http://www.freecotcharts.com/

COT data is very effective as to where the market is going , maybe not tomorrow, next week, or even next month........BUT they are always right.....
eventually....

just trade of a daily or weekly chart and u will see it happen...

I should add that the COT data is for the futures market but the bias can be applied to the forex......just be sure that u understand when for example u see that the Comm. traders are "long" the yen........that if paired with usd you would have to short the usd/jpy in the forex market for the same effect and to be on the right side of the trade......

regards fxloot
to my understanding, the commercial traders are short but they use the market to hedge, that's why they are long, in essence, i have to be short as I am trading and not hedging.
  • #20
  • Dec 12, 2006 10:22am Dec 12, 2006 10:22am
The COT Report....
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip COT.zip   205 KB | 839 downloads
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
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