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  • #1
  • First Post: May 5, 2026 9:34pm May 5, 2026 9:34pm
So is the DXY finally on the precipice of breaking down? Did Trump's shenanigans and ineptitude finally anger the world sufficiently to dethrone the USD?

What y'all think?

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Looks like the 2022 high wasn't high enough to take out the 2001 high, and now there's fewer and fewer reasons to own USD.
  • #2
  • May 14, 2026 4:57pm May 14, 2026 4:57pm
Quoting FlyingTurtle
So is the DXY finally on the precipice of breaking down? Did Trump's shenanigans and ineptitude finally anger the world sufficiently to dethrone the USD? What y'all think? {image} Looks like the 2022 high wasn't high enough to take out the 2001 high, and now there's fewer and fewer reasons to own USD.
What do I think? I think an update is due as new information has arrived!
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Arrow 1 - 2026 low to 2026 high

Arrow 2 - retracement right down into the 50% zone, and 2026 open (yellow zone)

Grey Zone - the 5-days open range of May, now a breakout UP

Also, I can post the 7 USD cross pairs for further confirmation of USD strength, just say the word!
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #3
  • May 14, 2026 9:13pm May 14, 2026 9:13pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} What do I think? I think an update is due as new information has arrived! {image} Arrow 1 - 2026 low to 2026 high Arrow 2 - retracement right down into the 50% zone, and 2026 open (yellow zone) Grey Zone - the 5-days open range of May, now a breakout UP Also, I can post the 7 USD cross pairs for further confirmation of USD strength, just say the word!
Hi Erebus! Yes it appears a bounce is underway in response to higher than expected US inflation, Warsh confirmation, Miran resignation, ongoing war supporting oil prices, and GBP selling. US stocks outperforming foreign markets suggest repatriation of USD as the main driver. It's also widely anticipated that Trump will escalate the war over the weekend, as he always does.

It remains to be seen if this is the start of a longer trend or just a blip in a bearish flag. The labor market was considered weak according to Powell, but I'm not sure Warsh's read on it. If the fed continues to be manacled by labor weakness and unable to hike to raise real rates then the USD will be inflated away by negative real rates. The other wild card is what the BOJ and Bessent will do to contain USD strength, as well as what extent the world is diversifying away from US assets. Trump wants a weak USD but his constant blundering (war, tariffs, inflation, hawkish fed pick) keeps goosing it higher.

So are you leaning towards a longer term bullish USD trend or just a bounce in a bear flag?
  • #4
  • May 14, 2026 11:17pm May 14, 2026 11:17pm
USDCNH is staging a bit of a rally. Trump must have convinced China that there is some reason to buy USD.

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  • #5
  • May 15, 2026 2:43pm May 15, 2026 2:43pm
Quoting FlyingTurtle
{quote} Hi Erebus! Yes it appears a bounce is underway in response to higher than expected US inflation, Warsh confirmation, Miran resignation, ongoing war supporting oil prices, and GBP selling. US stocks outperforming foreign markets suggest repatriation of USD as the main driver.

So, are you leaning towards a longer-term bullish USD trend or just a bounce in a bear flag?
Yes, absolutely, based on the major USD cross pairs, they are all breakout except AUDUSD on the monthly 5-day open range theory.

I look at the exotic, but simply as a gauge for the USD strength or weakness, not for trading.
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When price goes above the MN open, then that candle turns green.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #6
  • May 15, 2026 3:01pm May 15, 2026 3:01pm
Here is the USDNOK, see the MN candle is gone green, of course, there was a fake-out for the May 5-day range, it won't "work" all the time.

And they say look left, find support / resistance, or supply / demand? You will ALWAYS find a level to confirm the bias in your head!
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Last month was where to profit, or at least observe USD weakness.
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #7
  • May 15, 2026 3:14pm May 15, 2026 3:14pm
Bad news / good news -

Bad news is that you missed the breakout entry,

Good news is that you have 10 trading days left this month.
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #8
  • May 15, 2026 3:29pm May 15, 2026 3:29pm
What up (or down) with coffee? Anyone has a Starbucks chart?
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #9
  • May 15, 2026 3:45pm May 15, 2026 3:45pm
The other major USD cross (?) to watch is GOLD, will it give further confirmation to USD strength next week according to the old saying; Dollar up, Gold down?

It would have saved going long if you read it right, but so would seeing the resistance or supply, maybe liquidity too!
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #10
  • May 16, 2026 1:39am May 16, 2026 1:39am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Yes, absolutely, based on the major USD cross pairs, they are all breakout except AUDUSD on the monthly 5-day open range theory. I look at the exotic, but simply as a gauge for the USD strength or weakness, not for trading. {image} When price goes above the MN open, then that candle turns green.
Having thought for a while, I suspect the USD strength is a result of China agreeing to buy US goods as a consequence of Trump's visit. USDCNH usually does its own thing, showing USD weakness even when USD is generally strong against majors, so this big of a rally in USDCNH coinciding with a broad USD rally in the majors suggests China is driving it.

I'm not sure breakouts have much statistical significance by themselves since they're just as likely to be fakeouts if: China decides not to follow through, or the Iran war ends, or Warsh says something USD bearish. TA can't predict news.

AUDUSD broke out twice recently and each time quickly broke down.

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9/16/25 the DXY broke out to a new low before rocketing higher.
11/21/25 DXY broke out to a new high before falling to a new low.
1/27/26 DXY broke out to a new low before rocketing higher.
3/30/26 DXY broke out to a new high before falling.

So the breakouts happening now could be legit or could be to sucker traders in. How can anyone know?

For DXY to continue higher would mean: BOJ would have to give up defending 160 USDJPY, Oil will have to remain high, China will need to keep buying US goods, and the fed would have to increase their QE to prevent a liquidity crisis at the same time they are contemplating rate hikes to address inflation.
  • #11
  • May 16, 2026 1:43am May 16, 2026 1:43am
Quoting Erebus
The other major USD cross (?) to watch is GOLD, will it give further confirmation to USD strength next week according to the old saying; Dollar up, Gold down? It would have saved going long if you read it right, but so would seeing the resistance or supply, maybe liquidity too! {image} {image}
I'm bearish gold because lots of weak hands need washed out. I don't see much correlation of gold with DXY; they both could go down together.
  • #12
  • Edited 3:46am May 16, 2026 2:34am | Edited 3:46am
Trump did his best weakening DX, now it's bullish till the next campaign, and if D candidate wins - even further
imo of course

I repost my old ones here
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post15151687 - in this tiny sample, 2nd term is better than 1st for those who made it
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post15653786
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Air force
  • #13
  • May 16, 2026 3:51am May 16, 2026 3:51am
Quoting W0lfram
Trump did his best weakening DX, now it's bullish till the next campaign, imo of course I repost my old ones here https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post15151687 - in this tiny sample, 2nd term is better than 1st for those who made it https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post15653786 {image}
A guy named Roger Kerr pointed out that Trump 2.0 is following Trump 1.0, and if that holds then USD is due for a big rally.

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The difference is Trump 1.0 started tariffs later in his term (around the start of the USD rally in 2018) while Trump 2.0 went heavy on tariffs at the beginning. Tariffs cause a shortage of USD to the rest of the world if they reduce US imports.
  • #14
  • May 16, 2026 4:24am May 16, 2026 4:24am
Quoting FlyingTurtle
{quote} A guy named Roger Kerr pointed out that Trump 2.0 is following Trump 1.0, and if that holds then USD is due for a big rally. {image} The difference is Trump 1.0 started tariffs later in his term (around the start of the USD rally in 2018) while Trump 2.0 went heavy on tariffs at the beginning. Tariffs cause a shortage of USD to the rest of the world if they reduce US imports.
If global crisis happens end '27 - early '28 it will be very "suspicious"
Air force
  • #15
  • May 16, 2026 7:05am May 16, 2026 7:05am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} If global crisis happens end '27 - early '28 it will be very "suspicious"
It would be suspicious if it didn't happen. Republican presidents always oversee crisis. Why would the trend end now?

Reagan - 1987 crash
Bush - 1991 recession
Bush Jr - dotcom and housing bust
Trump - covid

Clinton, Obama, Biden - nothing
  • #16
  • May 16, 2026 8:13am May 16, 2026 8:13am
Quoting FlyingTurtle
{quote} It would be suspicious if it didn't happen. Republican presidents always oversee crisis. Why would the trend end now? Reagan - 1987 crash Bush - 1991 recession Bush Jr - dotcom and housing bust Trump - covid Clinton, Obama, Biden - nothing
Covid was a global exogenous shock, first 3 were ordinary domestic cycles. So the correlation ended in 2019
Air force
  • #17
  • May 16, 2026 12:14pm May 16, 2026 12:14pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Covid was a global exogenous shock, first 3 were ordinary domestic cycles. So the correlation ended in 2019
Trump didn't cause covid, but his existence as president almost certainly did. We know it came from a lab, probably Ft Detrick because CDC shuttered the germ lab august 2019 for containment issues https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_D..._of_operations At the same time a mysterious respiratory illness afflicted a retirement community 50 miles away. https://abcnews.com/US/respiratory-o...ry?id=64275865 All perfectly timed to disrupt a presidential election. The odds that it's all coincidence are astronomical.

If Hillary had won in 2016, covid would not have happened. So the trend is still intact. The market was shaky anyway, prompting Powell to do "not-qe" october 2019 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/powe...heet-soon.html
  • #18
  • Edited 5:00pm May 16, 2026 4:46pm | Edited 5:00pm
Quoting FlyingTurtle
{quote} We know it came from a lab, probably Ft Detrick because CDC shuttered the germ lab august 2019 for containment issues https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_D..._of_operations At the same time a mysterious respiratory illness afflicted a retirement community 50 miles away. https://abcnews.com/US/respiratory-o...ry?id=64275865 All perfectly timed to disrupt a presidential election. The odds that it's all coincidence are astronomical....
Lol, 'strongest' causal inference I've read recently. Was it written by your Chinese AI?

My conspiracy joke went out of control
Quote
So the trend is still intact.
Quoting W0lfram
Covid was a global exogenous shock, first 3 were ordinary domestic cycles.
So, the 3 samples correlation - the bubble formed under Democrats -> bust landed on Rep - ended in 2019. That's timing artifact. Dig into it, it;s called retrospective voting
Business cycles average 5-7 years, eventually they'll land on D themselves.
Also there are more variables: who controls Congress, FED, lag effectcs etc.
--------
Quote
Clinton, Obama, Biden - nothing
Which events count? Carter - stagflation, 21% rates. Clinton - bond market massacre. Obama - flash crash.

Quote
If Hillary had won in 2016, covid would not have happened.
lol x2. Totally unfalsifiable, worse than conspiracy theory

Quote
We know it came from a lab
No, we don't know it.
Genetic sequencing shows no markers of laboratory manipulation consistent with known gain-of-function techniques (c) Google
Air force
  • #19
  • May 16, 2026 5:54pm May 16, 2026 5:54pm
Quoting FlyingTurtle
{quote} (1) I'm not sure breakouts have much statistical significance by themselves since they're just as likely to be fake outs if:

(2) AUDUSD broke out twice recently and each time quickly broke down.
I left out all fundamental gobble-gook: you can discuss that with W0lfram

(1) Did you ever read How I Made $2 Million in the Stock Market: The Darvas System? Granted, that was for stocks, but price action is price action, and the good thing about Forex, it works up and down. The boxes are all breakouts, and they do work!

(2) It's not clear where you think the breakout happened, trendlines are so subjective, unlike horizontal lines, they are fixed, and then you didn't draw any for the eventual retracement?

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Good thing is that another 10 trading days left this month to make or break our theories!
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #20
  • May 16, 2026 8:00pm May 16, 2026 8:00pm
>> Did you ever read How I Made $2 Million in the Stock Market: The Darvas System?

i have time to read that..
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