The Turtles method

The Turtles experiment as it is also known was launched in 1983 by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt. The purpose of this experiment was to prove that anyone could be taught to trade and you don't need to have innate skills to become a trader. The experiment was a success. The Turtles made 175 millions in profits over a 5 years period. The entire story and the specific details of the method can be found in Michael Covel book "The Complete TurtleTrader: How 23 Novice Investors Became Overnight Millionaires". I watched a lot one of the original Turtles, the most successful one Jerry Parker and this clarified some things wrote in the Michael book.
First observation is that no trade is skipped because that trade is a potential outlier which can determine if end your year in profit or not.
The second observation is related to pyramiding. On the internet and in the book it is this misconception that the turtle traders used pyramiding which translates in adding new positions if after placing a trade he evolves in the desired direction. The confusion comes from the fact that they used multiple systems with different lengths. Here is the proof from Jerry Parker himself from 13:34 onwards.

Now that i clarified my sources of information about the Turtle method let's dive into specifics.

The Turtles uses two breakout systems (S1 and S2) running simultaneously. Every signal is taken with no skipping, no discretion. No pyramiding means you enter your full unit size on the initial breakout and do not add to winning positions.
Position sizing — the Unit
Every position is sized so that Multiple x Average True Range move equals roughly 1% of account balance. The formula is: 1 Unit = (1% of balance) ÷ (2 × ATR(20) × dollar value per point). This normalizes risk across different markets that have wildly different volatility.
System 1 — the faster system
Entry is triggered when price crosses at least one pip above 20 day high (long) or when price crosses at least one pip bellow 20 day low (short). You enter exactly 1 Unit on the breakout. The stop is placed at entry price ± 2 × ATR(20). The exit is a 10 day counter breakout — a long exits when price touches a new 10 day low, and a short exits when price touches a new 10 day high.
System 2 — the slower system
Entry is triggered when price crosses at least one pip above 55 day high (long) or when price crosses at least one pip bellow 55 day low (short). You enter exactly 1 Unit on the breakout. The stop is placed at entry price ± 2 × ATR(20). The exit is a 20 day counter breakout — a long exits when price touches a new 20 day low, and a short exits when price touches a new 20 day high.
Both systems run simultaneously on the same portfolio. A market can have an open S1 position and an open S2 position at the same time but they are tracked independently.
Trade management
The 2 × ATR(20) stop is fixed at entry and does not move in either direction until exit. There is no predefined take profit. It is used a trail stop and the trade is closed when either the initial stop loss is hit or the counter breakout exit signal fires.
Reduction position size
The reduction position size was used to protect the capital in periods when the markets were not trending, also known as choppy markets. When the account balance decreased by 10% the position size was reduced more aggressive by 20%. They allowed 3 reductions so if the initial risk was 1% per trade after reduction they risked 0.8%→0.64%→ 0.51%. When the account balance became bigger than than the balance before the drawdown they risked again 1% per trade.
The portofolio
The original Turtle system was designed around a diversified futures portfolio. The diversification wasn't incidental but it was load bearing. The system's edge comes from catching a small number of large trends per year, and you can't know in advance which market will deliver them. So you spread across many uncorrelated markets and let the law of large numbers work in your favor.
The portfolio covered several broad sectors:

1. Energies — crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gasoline
2. Metals — gold, silver, copper
3. Grains & softs — corn, soybeans, sugar, coffee, cocoa
4. Financials — US T-bonds, Eurodollars, S&P 500
5. Currencies — Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, Swiss franc, British pound, Canadian dollar, French franc

Roughly 20–25 markets in total. In our days we have more instruments available for trading so we can include in our portofolio single equities, crypto like bitcoin, ethereum, solana.
Important notes
- the method has a win rate usually between 30-40% but the profitability comes from those outlier trades;
- the drawdown periods are inherent but if you risk less the drawdowns will be smaller. If you trade 40 markets you can risk 0.5% per trade or even less;
- you can trade only one system if your account is not that big;
- it is crucial to respect the system rules 100%
- the method is easy to understand but much harder to follow.
- the method is meant to be used only on daily time frame so not on M5, M15, H1, H4;
- to reduce the number of whipsaws i recommend 3XATR(20) as stop loss instead of the classic 2XATR(20).

I automated the method for MT5 and you can find it HERE to buy.
If you want to trade manually this method i built the right tools.
The Turtles indicator which is free will give the signals for buy/sell and close the trade and the ATR Orders manager will automatically calculate the position size, the stop loss level based on your inputs and the account size.

This is an example of the last trade on UK Oil where i used 40 days for breakout and 20 days for trail stop.

Is anyone using this trading method or the 30-40% win rate is scary for you? Is the system hard to follow?

To trade properly in the current markets it is needed to use longer periods for breakouts and trail stops and a larger ATR multiple for the stop loss so you don't get often whipsaws.

Start small then scale by increasing position size and the number of markets traded.

Classic trend following rules.

Appreciate the simplicity.