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The Federal Reserve's latest "dot plot," outlining policymakers' interest rate projections, revealed a sharp shift in central bankers' expectations. Not only are rate cuts almost surely off the table for the rest of the year, but there is also a sharply higher chance of a hike before the end of 2026. Nine policymakers who participated in the exercise ...

*TRUMP ON FED: ALRIGHT THAT THEY HELD RATES, WHATEVER *TRUMP ON FED RAISING RATES POSSIBLY: IT COULD HAPPEN

Fed's Chair Warsh: I don't believe we have a cruel choice between full employment and stable prices. FED'S WARSH SAYS MORE WORK IS NEEDED ON PRICE STABILITY BUT ALL 19 FOMC MEMBERS AGREED NO TIGHTENING WAS NEEDED TODAY. Fed's Chair Warsh: My read of what I heard in the room, reflected in projections, was that half of colleagues felt rates should be lower and half should be higher. Fed's Chair Warsh: A new communication framework by the year-end wouldn't surprise.

Fed's Chair Warsh: Fed can't have a significant effect on particular prices FED'S WARSH WARNS FED MUST ENSURE PRICE MOVES IN OIL, EGGS AND BEEF DO NOT BROADEN INTO WIDER ECONOMIC INFLATION. WARSH DECLINES TO COMMENT ON ANY INTERACTIONS WITH TRUMP SINCE CONFIRMATION Fed's Chair Warsh: The committee discussed productivity today, AI came up. AI is filled with a huge opportunity and risks. *WARSH: I DO SEE SOME RESTRICTIVENESS IN THINGS LIKE HOUSING *WARSH: HARD TO USE THOSE SAME WORDS ANYWHERE ELSE

Fed's Chair Warsh: There is one proposal on the table, very little discussion on it, and no discussion of any other proposals. We had a good family fight on it. Fed's Chair Warsh on Task Forces: We are not outsourcing decisions. Task forces will make recommendations. Fed's Chair Warsh: I am not going to offer commentary on market reaction today. We've given markets a new chapter for the Central Bank.

Warsh: "We've missed on inflation for five years and we're going to fix that" pic.twitter.com/zZXk0NN5zp Fed's Chair Warsh: Most data we consume have old-fashioned survey methods. Fed's Chair Warsh: I would be open-minded if the Fed data task force had recommendations on how to improve official statistics. Private companies are working with real-time information. Fed's Chair Warsh: I am open-minded, there are new analytic techniques, new private sector data, and reforms for official sector data. Fed's Chair Warsh: Markets perform best when reacting to incoming data. Financial markets act less efficiently when they are worried about how the Fed will react to the data.

Fed's Chair Warsh: Policymakers don't feel bound by their dots. I did not hear tons of conviction on the projection submissions. Fed's Chair Warsh: I expect by year-end there will be a broad review of communications, press conferences, dots, and meetings. Fed's Chair Warsh: For me, submitting a dot is not helpful in the conduct of policy. Fed's Chair Warsh asked about the future of press conferences: They can be a very useful way of communicating, but I want to have something important to say for pressers.

Warsh Q&A: I see no reason to revisit 2% inflation goal until we have delivered Fed's Chair Warsh: We have the capability and the commitment to deliver 2% inflation. WARSH: 'I CAN'T GIVE YOU ANY GUIDANCE ON WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DO NEXT' WARSH: FED POLICY APPEARS TO BE RESTRICTIVE VIS A VIS HOUSING MARKET, BUT NOT FINANCIAL MARKETS

Fed's Chair Warsh: I am appointing a task force in 5 areas. 1. Fed Communications 2. Fed's Balance Sheet 3. Use and reliance on existing data sources 4. Productivity and jobs 5. Fed's inflation frameworks Fed's Chair Warsh: Each independent task force will have the best minds inside and outside the economics profession. Fed's Chair Warsh: I expect to propose changes, including to the summary of projections. Fed's Chair Warsh: The task force on inflation frameworks will examine drivers of inflation.

WARSH: INFLATION WELL AHEAD OF 2% GOAL WARSH: PERSISTENTLY HIGH PRICES A BURDEN Fed's Chair Warsh: The recent past need not be a prologue to inflation. Fed's Chair Warsh: Today's policy statement was shorter and simpler. The statement dispenses with older language. *WARSH: I REFRAINED FROM SUBMITTING PROJECTIONS OF MY OWN