Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

US 30 forecast: the index continues to fall after a correction

After a correction, the US 30 index resumed its downward movement. The US 30 forecast for today is negative.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US core PCE index rose to 3.1%
2. Market impact: the data has a negative impact on the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The US core PCE data can generally be viewed as moderately neutral, but with a slightly negative bias for the US 30 index. The actual reading was 3.1% year-on-year, in line with forecasts but above the previous level of 3.0%. This suggests that underlying inflation pressure is not easing as quickly as the market and the Federal Reserve would like.

For the US 30 index, the reaction is typically restrained, but more likely cautiously negative. The index comprises large, established companies, many of which operate in the industrial, financial, consumer, and healthcare sectors.

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EURUSD is down again: everyone wants the safe-haven dollar

The EURUSD pair slipped to 1.1532. The US dollar is in a strong position, as no one expects a quick Federal Reserve rate cut. Find more details in our analysis for 2 April 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. The EURUSD pair is retreating as external pressure mounts
2. The market remains negative on Middle East risks
3. EURUSD forecast for 2 April 2026: 1.1500

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate fell to 1.1532 on Thursday. The US dollar was supported by uncertainty over the timing of the end to the conflict in the Middle East following statements by US President Donald Trump.

In his evening address the previous day, Trump noted that Washington was close to accomplishing its key strategic objectives in Iran, but allowed for the possibility of new hard strikes over the next two to three weeks. This increased tension and maintained a high degree of uncertainty for global markets.

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AUDUSD on the verge of a breakout: Australia is ready to raise interest rates

Ahead of the NFP release, volatility in the AUDUSD pair has fallen noticeably, with quotes testing the 0.6900 mark. Find more details in our analysis for 3 April 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. Westpac expects three rate hikes in 2026
2. US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at -92 thousand, projected at 65 thousand
3. The Australian dollar received unexpected support from China

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast takes into account that the Australian dollar is showing remarkable resilience, balancing on a knife edge between strong domestic support and an external geopolitical storm. The AUDUSD pair is trading around 0.6900, attempting to build on its upward momentum after the recent decline.

The domestic driver for the AUD today is not just hawkish signals, but a real consensus on the inevitability of further policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

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USDJPY is entering a range: the market needs news

The USDJPY pair declined to 159.56 at the start of the week, but this is temporary. The Middle East conflict is still influencing market decisions. Discover more in our analysis for 6 April 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

1. The USDJPY pair is moving into a range amid continued geopolitical pressure
2. The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates soon
3. USDJPY forecast for 6 April 2026: 158.50 or 160.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is declining to 159.56 on Monday. Despite the correction, the yen remains near its weakest levels since July 2024, with pressure on the Japanese currency increasing amid the escalating conflict around Iran and rising energy prices.

US President Donald Trump stated that strikes on Iran’s energy and civilian infrastructure may begin within the next few days if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Tehran rejected these demands, and the water route remains effectively blocked.

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US 500 forecast: the index may enter a sideways channel

The US 500 index sees elevated volatility, with a sideways range likely to form. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 178 thousand in March
2. Market impact: the data is negative for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

On Friday, 3 April, US employment data for March 2026 was released. At first glance, the figures appear very strong: the economy added 178 thousand jobs compared to a forecast of just 49 thousand. But if you look deeper, the picture is not that optimistic. Out of those 178 thousand jobs, about 76 thousand were doctors and healthcare workers who returned to work after the Kaiser Permanente strike ended.

For the US 500, the impact is not entirely positive. A stronger labour market reduces the likelihood of rapid monetary easing. Following the report, expectations increased that the Federal Reserve will maintain a more hawkish stance and will not rush to cut rates.

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Gold (XAUUSD) in positive territory, but the pause looks fragile

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose to 4,800 USD. A catastrophe in the Middle East has not happened so far. Find more details in our analysis for 8 April 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. Gold (XAUUSD) is in positive territory, but there are still too many geopolitical risks
2. Since the start of the Middle East conflict, gold has fallen by 25% from its peak values
3. XAUUSD forecast for 8 April 2026: 4,700 or 4,850

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) rose by more than 2% on Wednesday, moving above the 4,800 USD per ounce mark and continuing its recovery. The market received support from Donald Trump’s statements about postponing strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure for two weeks to complete negotiations.

Less than two hours before the set deadline, Trump announced a bilateral ceasefire on condition that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. He also reported receiving a 10-point proposal from Iran, which he described as a working basis for further negotiations.

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Brent on the edge: the truce collapsed – the market is preparing for a new shock

The ceasefire agreement sent Brent quotes plummeting, but a new upward wave is now possible, with a test of the 112.45 USD mark and eventually 150.00 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 9 April 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

1. Brent prices have plummeted to 92.00 USD per barrel and are attempting to recover
2. The ceasefire between Iran and the US has practically collapsed
3. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed

Fundamental analysis

The Brent fundamental analysis for today, 9 April 2026, takes into account that the oil market is going through a dramatic two-act story, with prices first plunging on news of the ceasefire and then sharply reversing as it effectively collapsed. Brent crude is hovering around 94.00 USD per barrel in the morning, recovering losses after yesterday’s fall below 90.00 USD.

Act one: euphoria and collapse. It all started when US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran just an hour and a half before his ultimatum expired. The terms of the agreement were that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US would lift part of the sanctions.

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

US Tech forecast: the index resumed its upward movement with a strong impulse

The US Tech index broke through resistance with a strong impulse and formed an uptrend. The US Tech forecast for next week is negative.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: U.S. GDP for March increased by 0.5%
2. Market impact: for the technology sector, the current data are mixed

Fundamental analysis

The release of the U.S. GDP data looks restrainedly negative for the US Tech index overall. The U.S. economy grew only 0.5% (annualized) in Q4 2025, while the consensus expected 0.7%, and the previous quarter showed growth of 4.4%. This signals a noticeable slowdown in business activity and confirms that the economy entered 2026 with weaker momentum than the market had assumed.

For US Tech, the initial reaction may be mixed, but in the base scenario the news is more likely to worsen the fundamental backdrop. On the one hand, weaker GDP is a signal of more moderate economic growth, meaning the market may revise down expectations for sales growth at companies tied to advertising, corporate budgets, e-commerce, and consumer activity.

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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EURUSD weekly forecast: data and Islamabad will decide

The EURUSD pair enters the week of 13–17 April near 1.1687 amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and mixed US macro data. The market is watching the Islamabad talks involving JD Vance and assessing the outlook for inflation and Federal Open Market Committee policy.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. Market focus: EURUSD ended the week at 1.1687
2. Current trend: after the decline, EURUSD formed a local low in the 1.3150–1.3200 area
3. Outlook for the week: the baseline scenario is consolidation in the 1.3300–1.3450 range with attempts to break higher

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair ended the April week at 1.1687. Investors’ focus is on the Islamabad talks, where the US delegation is led by JD Vance. The market is hoping for more clarity on the conflict outlook, but overall sentiment remains cautious. Strikes in the region and disruptions to operations in the Strait of Hormuz keep risks to any agreements elevated and limit risk appetite.

US macroeconomic data look uneven. GDP growth in Q4 slowed to 0.5% q/q versus 4.4% previously, signaling cooling in the economy. The labor market is sending mixed signals: initial jobless claims rose to 219K, but continuing claims fell to 1.794M.

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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US 500 forecast: the index resumed growth on positive expectations from the Iran–US talks

The US 500 index formed an uptrend due to the start of talks between the US and Iran, but the threat of the US blocking the Strait of Hormuz triggered a corrective decline. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US CPI in March came in at 3.3% year-on-year
2. Market impact: the data is positive for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

US inflation data showing annual consumer price growth at 3.3% versus a 3.4% forecast appears moderately positive for the US 500 at first glance, as the actual figure came in slightly below market expectations. For investors, this suggests price pressure was not as strong as previously feared. However, it is also important to note that the previous reading was notably lower at 2.4%, meaning inflation still accelerated compared to the previous period.

Overall, this data creates a mixed but rather supportive backdrop for the US 500. The positive aspect is that inflation did not exceed the forecast, so the pressure on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy may be somewhat lower than it would have been with a higher reading.

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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US 30 forecast: the index rises amid talks between the US and Iran

The US 30 index has entered an uptrend, driven by expectations that the conflict between Iran and the US may end soon. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US PPI rose by 0.5% in March
2. Market impact: the data is positive for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data at 0.5% month-on-month versus the forecast of 1.1% appears moderately positive for the US 30. Although the reading did not slow versus the previous month and remained at 0.5%, the key factor for the market in this case is the deviation from expectations.

For the US 30, the effect may be especially noticeable through improved sentiment towards cyclical sectors. Industrial corporations may find support, as easing inflation pressure reduces the risk of further increases in raw material, logistics, and intermediate goods costs.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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Gold (XAUUSD) recovers losses: risk has eased

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose to 4,800 USD, as investors are pleased with the prospect of inflationary pressure easing. Discover more in our analysis for 16 April 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. Gold (XAUUSD) prices are reacting positively to the prospect of negotiations between the US and Iran
2. Quotes are clearly recovering after the sharp decline a month ago
3. XAUUSD forecast for 16 April 2026: 4,850

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) returned above 4,800 USD per ounce on Thursday, recouping the previous session’s losses. Prices received support from a reassessment of the prospects for negotiations between the US and Iran and of a possible long-term peace agreement, which may reduce inflationary pressure.

According to media reports, Washington and Tehran are considering extending the two-week ceasefire to gain time for negotiations. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed because of a double blockade.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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US Tech forecast: the index hit a new all-time high

The US Tech index continues its long growth streak and has reached a new all-time high. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US initial jobless claims for last week came in at 207 thousand
2. Market impact: the current data has a mixed impact on the technology sector

Fundamental analysis

US initial jobless claims data can be viewed as a moderately positive signal for the US Tech index. The actual figure came in at 207 thousand versus a forecast of 213 thousand and a previous reading of 218 thousand, meaning new claims were below expectations and below the previous value. This indicates that the labour market remains resilient and the US economy is not showing signs of a sharp cooling.

However, for the US Tech, the reaction is not always clear-cut. Strong employment and labour market data supports overall risk appetite for stocks, but at the same time can reduce the likelihood of rapid monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. This is important for technology companies, as a significant part of their market valuation is sensitive to interest rates.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

DE 40 forecast: the index has recovered all losses driven by the US-Iran conflict

The uptrend in the DE 40 stock index continues and may lead to a new all-time high. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: Germany’s CPI for March increased by 2.7% year-on-year
2. Market impact: the data creates a negative backdrop for the German equity market

Fundamental analysis

The increase in Germany’s annual inflation to 2.7%, in line with forecasts but significantly higher than the previous reading of 1.9%, may have a moderately negative impact on the DE 40 index. The fact that the figure matched expectations reduces the risk of a sharp market reaction, as market participants may have already partially priced in this outcome.

For the DE 40 index, this creates a mixed but rather cautious backdrop. On the one hand, the fact that the forecast has not been exceeded could support the market and limit pressure on equities. On the other hand, the 2.7% reading remains above the comfort level for the European Central Bank, which may reduce expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy in the coming months.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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USDJPY is full of strength: there are few reasons for a trend reversal

The USDJPY pair moved to 158.91 on Tuesday, with the yen remaining under pressure due to uncertainty over Bank of Japan policy. Discover more in our analysis for 21 April 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

1. The USDJPY pair is in positive territory due to the Bank of Japan’s ambiguous stance
2. Japan remains dependent on energy imports
3. USDJPY forecast for 21 April 2026: 159.50

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is hovering near 158.91, with the Japanese yen remaining under pressure amid unclear signals from the regulator. The Bank of Japan will most likely keep the rate unchanged this month. It needs time to assess the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. At the same time, a signal to resume policy normalisation may be given as early as June.

There is a possibility that the regulator will raise its inflation forecasts while lowering its growth estimates, given rising energy prices and the overall negative backdrop.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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Pound is holding steady at 1.3521 amid political and geopolitical developments

The GBPUSD pair stood at 1.3521 on Wednesday, with the market closely watching developments in UK domestic politics. Discover more in our analysis for 22 April 2026.

GBPUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. The GBPUSD pair ended up slightly below last week’s highs due to a combination of geopolitics and domestic news
2. Labour market data came out weak
3. GBPUSD forecast for 22 April 2026: 1.3600

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate is hovering near 1.3521, slightly below last week’s highs, with the pound sterling under pressure from domestic political instability and rising external risks.

The scandal around the appointment of the ambassador to the US has intensified. Former Foreign Secretary Olly Robbins stated he was pressured to approve Peter Mandelson’s candidacy, although the Prime Minister’s Office was not directly involved in the procedure. This is adding uncertainty around Keir Starmer’s government.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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JP 225 forecast: the index hit a new all-time high and pulled back

The JP 225 stock index continues to rise, slightly surpassing its all-time high. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: Japan’s trade balance for March came in at 667 billion JPY
2. Market impact: the effect on the Japanese stock market is neutral

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s trade balance data appears moderately negative for the JP 225 index, as the actual figure came in well below the forecast: 667.0 billion versus the expected 1,106.0 billion. Although the trade balance remained positive, the shortfall versus expectations may be interpreted as a sign of weaker foreign trade momentum.

For the JP 225 index, the impact may be mildly negative but not necessarily sharp. The trade surplus is still in place, meaning foreign trade remains in positive territory. However, a weaker-than-expected result can cap the index’s upside and encourage profit-taking after the recent advance, particularly in large exporters.

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US Tech forecast: the index is correcting after reaching a new all-time high

The US Tech index hit a new all-time high and is highly likely to continue its upward trajectory. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US services PMI came in at 51.3 in March
2. Market impact: the impact on the technology sector is mixed

Fundamental analysis

The release of a stronger-than-expected US services PMI is a moderately positive signal for the US Tech index, but the impact will be mixed. On the one hand, the rise in the services PMI to 51.3, compared to the forecast of 50.5 and the previous 49.8, indicates that the service sector has returned to expansion.

For the US stock market overall, this data appears rather constructive. The service sector plays a central role in the US economy, so a move back above 50 is typically seen as a sign of stabilising business activity.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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DE 40 forecast: the index is correcting, but the overall upward bias remains

The uptrend in the DE 40 stock index may become medium-term if the correction ends within the next few trading sessions. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: Germany’s preliminary ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at −17.2 in April
2. Market impact: the data creates a negative backdrop for the German stock market

Fundamental analysis

The drop in Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index to −17.2, below the forecast of −5.9 and the previous reading of −0.5, is a negative signal for the DE 40 index. The data suggests a significant deterioration in expectations among investors and analysts regarding the outlook for the German economy.

This release could put short-term pressure on the DE 40 index. Companies that depend on domestic demand, the industrial cycle, and export orders look particularly vulnerable.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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US 500 forecast: the index extends gains and hits new all-time highs

After reaching another all-time high, the US 500 index is showing signs of a short-term correction in its uptrend. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US services PMI came in at 51.3 in April
2. Market impact: the data is positive for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The US services PMI came in at 51.3, above expectations of 50.5 and the previous reading of 49.8. Since the index moved back above the 50-point threshold, this signals the services sector has returned to expansion after the prior weak reading. Investor sentiment is also being influenced by the progress of US-Iran talks, which have not yet provided clear signals that the conflict is coming to an end.

For the US 500 index, this release can be viewed as moderately positive overall, as the services sector represents a large share of the US economy and is directly tied to consumer demand, employment, corporate earnings, and overall business resilience. A stronger PMI could signal that the economy retains the ability to grow despite high interest rates and consumer caution.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team