Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

The chart shows a possible short setup under a bearish bias.

yes I think so.

This agrees with my outlook for this instrument.
And if it is a wave c or a 3 it can be explosively bearish after this upmove is done.
I was monitoring the support line I drew yesterday and saw the bounce off support and closed my short.
I did not open a long so missed all the upmove.
We are partially risk on or at least in a 'consideration' mode.
Almost all the usual instrument have bitten loads into their gaps

Monday’s upward move in the market prompted a review of the higher time frame charts, raising the question of whether it is justified to adopt a contrarian view against the broader sentiment.

A closer examination of the weekly chart—particularly the behavior of the RSI—reveals a notable pattern. Historically, when the RSI drops below the 30 level and subsequently rebounds toward the 40 region on the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin tends to be transitioning into a broader bull market phase.

This pattern has repeated itself three times, with the exception of 2011, suggesting a consistent structural signal that may support a bullish outlook despite prevailing market doubts.


A further review of the daily chart adds another layer to the analysis. Toward the end of 2025, the price action from bar #1 to #5 formed a structure that closely resembles what we are currently observing between bar #8 and #12.However, the key distinction lies in what followed. In the previous instance, bar #6 printed a doji—signaling market indecision—followed by bar #7, which led to a clear sell-off. This sequence ultimately shifted the short-term direction of the market.


In contrast, if the current session continues to show strength without a comparable sell-off, it suggests that the market may not follow the same playbook as seen in late 2025. Instead, the present structure could indicate a period of consolidation, potentially acting as a base before the next upward move.

We will continue to observe this week’s price action carefully, allowing the market to reveal its intent before arriving at a more conclusive assessment.

In the short term, Bitcoin continues to exhibit a bearish count, reinforcing a downside bias in the current market outlook.

It appears that the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 76.6K is still holding. Given that the overall structure remains intact, I maintain a bearish bias on Bitcoin, expecting further downside continuation. The first downside target is projected at 72.3K, based on the 1.0 Fibonacci extension of the move that began on the 17th.

Bear market behaviour is often fundamentally different from bull market conditions. In many cases, our psychological bias is not naturally designed to trade the short side effectively. This is also evident when applying a strategy such as RSI 30/60—where shorts are taken when RSI is above 60 and positions are covered when RSI reaches 30. On lower timeframes like M15, market noise can significantly distort signals, leading to inconsistent execution.

A practical adjustment is to shift the timeframe higher, from M15 to H1. This helps filter out market noise and produces clearer, more structured signals. In many cases, the win probability remains comparable and can even improve, not because the indicator itself changes, but because the strategy is effectively aligned with selling into rallies within a clearer trend-biased environment. Without a proper trend bias, and without a structured scaling or execution framework, RSI-based entries can easily degrade into near-random signals rather than a systematic trading edge.

The current Bitcoin chart highlights two potential zones for initiating short positions (#1 and #2). By applying a scale-in approach, these entries can be averaged effectively, resulting in a more favourable overall entry price and improved position structure. At the same time, it is essential to stay disciplined and respect MIDD (Maximum Intraday Drawdown) constraints to ensure capital protection against sudden or extended adverse moves.

Funny enough, arnabtrading, I am drawn to short trades more that long trades.
I do both but I think its like 55:45 in favour of shorting.
Some guy told me that when price goes up it does so in steps but it takes the elevator when going down
Of course elevators go both directions.
But some things just lodge in traders brains

Bitcoin’s market structure now suggests a transition into a flat correction. Should this scenario play out, a Wave (c) pullback toward the 73.9K–76.1K region is likely.

We will closely monitor whether Bitcoin can break above the 78.5K level. For now, it appears that buyers are struggling to push the price higher.

Price is very strong. Has touched 78.5k now
On the hourly chat I saw some inverse hammers and i was sharpening my knives for a sell against the recent high but price kept on going up impulsively.
So back to watch mode for me.
Can I ask though, shouldn't a c wave for all that upmove be deeper that what you showed on the chart?

It may extend lower; however, the trendline drawn from early April remains intact and unbroken, making it a key support level. We’ll reassess more closely if price approaches that area.

As things stand now...

Revised count ..

Great PA at a great level... possibly the best level!

If we evaluate the structure as an impulse, Bitcoin’s price action satisfies the required conditions. Should this analysis play out as expected, we are targeting the 80.4K–81.0K zone as the potential peak for Wave 5.

Taking a broader view through EMA analysis and comparing current price action with early 2026, two key distinctions stand out. Previously, price was unable to reclaim and hold above the EMA100 (#1), signaling underlying weakness. This was followed by a bearish crossover between the EMA20 and EMA50, reinforcing downside momentum.

In contrast, the current structure tells a different story. The EMA20 has crossed above the EMA50 (#3), forming a bullish signal, while price continues to hold firmly above the EMA100 (#4). This alignment suggests a stronger trend foundation and sustained bullish control in the market.


Looking at past price action under similar EMA conditions, the outcome tends to be predictable — once this structure forms, price usually makes a direct push toward the EMA200. This isn’t new. We’ve seen the same sequence unfold in early 2023, Q2 2019, Q3 2015, and even back in early 2012. Different year, same setup… and the market keeps repeating the same move.

BTCUSD Update | Apr 25, 2026 | 30M Chart
BTC showing strong recovery!
Current price: $77,721

News Impact: US-China trade war tensions easing slightly — markets responding positively. Institutional buying continues as ETF inflows remain strong. Risk-on sentiment returning to crypto markets this week!

Chart Analysis: BTC was struggling around $74,000-$75,000 zone last week. Then on Apr 22 a massive volume spike pushed price all the way up to $79,500! Price pulled back and is now consolidating around $77,700.
Resistance: $78,000 | $79,500 | $80,000 Support: $77,000 | $76,482 | $75,325
Two Scenarios: If BTC holds above $77,000 and breaks $78,000 → next target $79,500 and psychological $80,000 level. Bulls are clearly in control!
If $77,000 breaks → pullback to $76,482 and $75,325 support zone before next move up.

Big Picture: BTC structure has shifted bullish! Higher lows forming — this is a healthy sign. $80,000 break could trigger a big rally towards $85,000+. Watch this week's close carefully!

This is my analysis only — not financial advice. Trade at your own risk!
What's your view on BTC? Comment below!

BTCUSD Update | Apr 26, 2026 | 30M Chart
Current price: $77,965

Chart Analysis: BTC spiked to $79,400 on Apr 22 but got rejected at R2 resistance. Price has been consolidating between $77,200-$78,400 for the past few days forming a tight range.

Resistance: R1: $78,400 — immediate resistance R2: $79,326 — major resistance zone
Support: $77,200 — strong support zone tested multiple times $76,482 — next key support $76,240 — major support below

Key Observation: $77,200 support has been tested 3 times and held perfectly every time — this is a very strong zone! Price is now bouncing from this level again towards $78,400 resistance.

Two Scenarios: If BTC breaks and closes above R1 at $78,400 → next target R2 at $79,326 and then psychological $80,000!

If $77,200 support breaks → could drop to $76,482 and $76,240. Bulls must defend $77,200 at all costs!

Big Picture: Structure remains bullish. Higher lows forming. A clean break above $79,326 could trigger a massive move towards $82,000-$85,000. This week's close is very important!

This is my analysis only — not financial advice. Trade at your own risk!
What's your view on BTC? Comment below!

Bearish momentum appears to have faded after a brief four-day push. Bulls have since taken control, pressing price into the 79.5K resistance zone with clear intent.
The 0.618 Fibonacci level at 80.6K remains firmly in play as the primary target. If bullish strength continues to build, the next upside objective under the alternative scenario is projected at 82.8K.