Watching the same setup from a different angle. Friday range respect into Monday is probably the cleanest tell here, because if price can't hold 4734 extension down then the weekly close narrative resets and that 5400 retest arithmetic enarco laid out gets delayed by at least a couple cycles. The Shiller PE comparison is the part I keep chewing on, the 1999 analog is noisy because rates were 6% then and we're at very different real yields, but the equity-to-gold relative vol is lining up in a way i haven't seen since early 2009. On the CBOE floor we used to call setups like this 'the one where everyone's right at different time horizons', which is a polite way of saying whoever sizes smallest wins.
Ex-CBOE. Trade my own book.
1
but always DYOR
