The Swamp

Its not over

The peasants need to hit the streets.

Yes, IRGC's lookin good... with stockpile of missiles to hit anything in region - nothing the US can do 'cept whistle past the graveyard like Hegseth did Wednesday morning (though he probably did it more to keep the dollar falling a while longer to please Mr. dollar "yo-yo".) Bottom line, we don't know where the missiles are, so what's with the happy face Pete? (PS: did Gen Randy George, chief of staff, get canned for planning this epic (fury) disaster without certain knowledge of what Iran had up its sleeve? Fact is: they can still poke out your eye (or your THAAD radars) after getting "obliterated!". Our intelligence agencies (corrupt and degraded since the Obama admin at least) flubbed the Boston Bombing - which followed ignored warnings thru Interpol from Russia bout the radicalized Tsarnaev brothers; this, about a month after deep state Brennan became CIA director. That was followed by other shenanigans up thru Hillary Clinton's Steele "dossier" malarkey, "Crossfire Hurricane" and other crap outta the CIA and FBI that had nothing to do with their actual responsibilities: now they flubbed the size of Iran's missile stockpile!!!! Okay, enough of my rant about out intelligence agencies!
...so, what's to be done with these people? Sattelite images go back to the '90s when Iran started designing their own missiles. Let's haul in as many of those monitoring Iranian activities at the time in to try remember'n what they might have missed in addition to having new people scan years of Iran imagery 24/7, cause the IRG is also likely working on a "New York" rocket (or maybe a Mar-a-Lago rocket) in one of their underground missile cities that we might locate. Which leads then to the really big problem: Plutonium. Iran has operated a research reactor in Tehran since '67, and a much higher power reactor under their control on the Persian Gulf coast since '13. IEAE inspectors have often been denied access to Iranian reactor facilities and you have to suspect that in all those years, they've surreptitiously used the reactors to convert enough ordinary, innocent U238 to Pu239 (yes, difficult but not impossible) for maybe 10 compact implosion devices that would fit nicely atop a "New York" rocket. It's not all that hard to do with some know how. After all, they're crazy, not stupid. All the quibbling over "enrichment," centrifuges and "getting the uranium" misses a big point! They're probably willing to give up their pile of uranium cause they now have a pile of Pu239 hidden somewhere!

I have a very bad feeling the only way out of this mess is to get really serious and inventive about creating the conditions that would allow average SANE Iranian citizens to overthrow their current government and stop this before it's too late.

Without getting to deep in the conspiracies you launch. The first paragraph. Your too deep in the non reality. When our friends in intelligence give us info. We should look into it. That intelligence on its face should of been investigated. From the laundering of money to the other aspects. There is just too many coincidences to put in a large book. They all lead the the moron being Putin's useful idiot. Each day since, he is doing everything to point in that direction. From putting sanctions on NATO members and other friends. The one exempt country being Russia. If I could ignore he stole truckloads of top secret intelligence. When caught he refused to give it back. He made many excuses like, "they are mine, they were planted by the FBI, I declassified them with my mind". I can see a paper or 2 maybe slipping in the cracks. But truckloads is a different story. He is a asset to Putin or to his own greed. Mueller a war hero investigated him your paragraph. He claimed he couldn't be charged for one reason. That was because he was president. Your just repeating the same bullshit as Putin's asset. The PP tapes seem to be very mild compared to the Epstein files. There is one guy who is doing all he can to take those off the headlines. It isn't rocket science to see why. He did all he could to keep it secret. Until congress voted in a veto proof majority. Then he was forced to sign it. His next option was to keep the Justice department from releasing his involvement. The house subpoenaed Pam. So we go to war to change the news cycle off the Epstein files. The new plan is to fire her. Make up a bullshit story about she isn't the AG now. That isn't going to work. The truth will be known. It all connects to your first paragraph. Putin has a file on DT as did Epstein with Israel. That's why they lead him on a leash. I don't have time to go through it all. If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck. Its a duck.

Cable views:

1.342 close after NYK at around 4 pm would open 1.33 for tomorrow ahead of talks to profit take / risk off.
Technically 1.33 was run through way too easily i suspect we might revisit it sometime in April to have a better clarity of the the Price Action in that region.

Good talks = gap back up towards 1.34 for run at highs for the month and test 1.35
Bad talks = gap down towards 1.32 for run towards low and test for 1.30

1.33 imo would be hard to reach and i think 1.334 <> 1.335 would be more palatable. Pretty bearish if it closes at 1.33 or attempts 1.33 tomorrow.

Range for Month of April given volatility 1.30 <> 1.35 with wide swings (30pips on channel / divergence), (50 - 60 pips on news).

Quite obvious that USA is looking for an out in this war but whether Iran allows them out is another thing altogether.

Out of the 10 points. My views

1. An American guarantee of nonaggression with Iran.
-That's easy if the war is over. (easy)

2. Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The world will push back on this and if it fails and the USA sends boots on the ground under this pretext, it is alot more platable to the rest of the world. (hard)

3. Ending the regional war on all fronts, including against Iran’s ally, Hezbollah, in Lebanon.
- In the event of an end of the war, sure. But Israel will likely push back on this. (easy)

4. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases and positions in the region.
- The GCC will not allow this given the obvious disparity in firepower and military superiority of the Iranians vs the GCC.. not at least until they have much higher tech and are resupplied adequately. Petrodollars also require GCC to be involved in any and all forms of negotiatons.

5. Reparations to Iran for war damages.
- Hard. If they charge toll on SOH then see point 2.

6. Acceptance of Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment.
- Pretty much impossible. Maybe if USA runs their nuclear reactor for them.

7. Lifting all primary sanctions on Iran.
- Easy.. not really that much an issue

8. Lifting all secondary sanctions on Iran.
-Easy.. also not really that much an issue

9. Termination of all resolutions against Iran by the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
- That's easy if they give up nuclear. See point 6.

10. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran.
- That's easy if they give stop fighting and give up everything else.

So that gives us almost 4 -5 extremely difficult and almost impossible points of reconciliation and here we are, talking about risk on and the end of the war. Absolutely no idea what the rest of the market is thinking and could be CTAs / mechanical pushing but my gut feel is that smart money is accumulating on the short side ... at least those who are not chasing and have positioned extremely well.

Frankly, the only way i think that we can truly go back to normal after this last 40 days / 6 weeks is for either side to surrender or withdraw completely, neither of which looks possible. Which means things will have to get alot worse before it gets better if we are stuck at a detente.

I think that perhaps what Trump really wants is... to go in and take out their infrastructure and force a real regime change at this point (not withstanding), arm the civilians and militas for a civil war whilst getting the allies to counter and patrol the SOH so that they can free up their assets and reposition on cuba / asia pacific.

Just like all committments, forcibly reopening is easy.. maintenance and peacekeeping the SOH is what is going to bog down their military for a long time, something that Trump doesnt have due to the constitution and his age.

However, once again, you have no idea what is up when it comes to Taco Trump. Though technically the charts on the longer TF (Weekly / Monthly / Yearly ) looks devastating for the dollar, fundamentals seems to suggest it would get alot worse (risk off) before it gets better still.

Happy hunting!

I was wrong.. The 3 ships were not tankers according to Bloomberg.
800 waiting to pass.

Wipped out

Something I over looked. It wasn't just me. If bulk oil sales are down. Because the supply is less. Even with a high oil demand. There will be less USD needed to buy less oil. even at a higher price. That may be why the usd is weaker. The need to convert to usd in the purchase is less. Plus the added sales in the yuan don't help. Iran seems to have been underestimated in so many ways. Maybe by planning, maybe by accident. maybe some luck. USA arrogance is a weakness. That safe haven supported by the Petro dollar is loosing its shine.

Or a sacrifice in the publics eye. The larger group may have bought.

The kiwi left the bear zone since the peace talks.. Its on the bull side above the purple.

The DOW is above 48,169.. A break out above 48,169. At/in the 48,300 area. A perfect place to drop a LL leg. See if the volume changes, and below 48,169

A perfect place for a top after a sweep.

brent oil using the magenta as R.. wti has it as support.

Its on the support, if it can hold it. Bullish if it holds. But this is a perfect sweep pump. Institutions have less emotional than retailors are. Inflation is already above the Fed target before any war oil inflation. At the same time jobs are 0. Means less people can buy products. Earnings will report and an outlook. The FED is less likely to cut with high inflation. That's less liquid in the economy.

back to the 1970/1980's stagflation

It closed above that level on the bull side. I will treat it as bullish as long as it is. But fundi wise earnings and outlook is coming. It fits a pump dump. Institutions know the war info is not in the Jan/March print. GDP is already smaller than forecast before any war info. Inflation is already high before war info. Employment is about net 0 in new jobs before war info, Bankruptcies are up for individuals, and small business. Credit card debt is over a trillion. Soon oil inflation will be added. Its just not in the gov data yet.

The eu and others often spike about 20 pips (over the double top high) to catch weak shorts. 1734.9 is a big number. It may resist. This close to it may be a top in this area forming.