Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

GBPUSD at a three-month low: pressure is mounting

The GBPUSD pair has dropped to 1.3329, with geopolitical risks and weaker macroeconomic forecasts weighing on the pound. Discover more in our analysis for 4 March 2026.

GBPUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. The GBPUSD pair is declining amid external risks and rapid strengthening of the US dollar
2. Weak domestic data is also putting pressure on the pound
3. GBPUSD forecast for 4 March 2026: 1.3253

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate fell to its lowest level since 9 December, reaching 1.3329. Pressure on the British currency is intensified by a stronger US dollar, which is in demand as a safe-haven asset amid tensions in the Middle East. Investors are also reacting to revised forecasts for the UK economic growth.

US President Donald Trump stated that the military operation against Iran could last four to five weeks and may be extended if necessary.

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Oil storm 2026: Brent surges amid real threat of supply disruptions

After testing the 84.24 USD level, Brent prices may continue their uptrend and head towards the 100.00 USD area. Find more details in our analysis for 5 March 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

1. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to support Brent prices
2. Declining global stocks of crude oil and petroleum products are increasing the market deficit
3. Brent forecast for 5 March 2026: 88.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent fundamental analysis for today, 5 March 2026, takes into account that quotes continue their upward trajectory, trading around 82.30 USD per barrel.

The Brent forecast for 5 March 2026 factors in that Brent remains in the eye of the storm caused by the escalation of the Middle East conflict. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has moved from a threat to an actual disruption. Around 20% of the world’s oil passes through the strait, creating a serious risk to the oil market and acting as one of the drivers of Brent’s rally.

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EURUSD in a Triangle: the market gears up for a sharp move

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure amid rising inflation risks, which supports demand for the US dollar. The rate currently stands at 1.1607. Find more details in our analysis for 6 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. Rising tensions in the Middle East increase instability in global financial markets
2. Higher oil prices fuel concerns about a new wave of global inflation
3. Markets have revised expectations for the timing of the Federal Reserve policy easing

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is falling for the second consecutive session, but prices remain within a range with an upper boundary at 1.1645 and a lower boundary at 1.1575. The US dollar is supported by escalating tensions in the Middle East, which increases instability in global financial markets. Higher oil prices fuel concerns about a new wave of global inflation. This raises the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at elevated levels for longer.

Rising inflation risks are weighing on the currencies of major oil-importing countries, which additionally supports the US dollar. Markets have revised expectations for the timing of the Federal Reserve easing. Investors now expect the next rate cut in September or October, whereas previously it was anticipated as early as July.

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Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: range-bound trading with a positive bias

Gold (XAUUSD) enters the week of 9–13 March around 5,170 USD per ounce after rising amid increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. Weekly performance: gold (XAUUSD) is hovering around 5,170 USD per ounce after rising amid heightened geopolitical risks.
2. Support and resistance: the daily chart shows a steady uptrend formed back in autumn.
3. Fundamentals and outlook: gold retains its status as a key safe-haven asset and remains sensitive to geopolitics and inflation expectations.

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) ended the week higher, holding around 5,170 USD per ounce. Prices are bolstered by demand for safe-haven assets amid a sharp escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

The military confrontation between the US, Israel, and Iran continues to intensify. The US and Israel are striking military and infrastructure targets in Iran, while Tehran is responding with missile attacks on some neighbouring countries, including energy infrastructure facilities.

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: the index is correcting after the sell-off

Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, the US 500 plunged by 4.5% and is now undergoing a correction. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US Nonfarm Payrolls came in at -92 thousand in February 2026
2. Market impact: the impact on the equity market is neutral

Fundamental analysis

The release of US Nonfarm Payrolls at -92 thousand, below a forecast of a 58 thousand gain, is a clearly negative signal for the equity market. This result means the US economy did not add jobs; on the contrary, employment declined. For the US 500 index, this typically implies stronger short-term pressure, as investors start pricing in weaker economic growth prospects, more cautious corporate guidance, and an increased risk of deteriorating company financial performance in the coming quarters.

In this situation, mixed price action is most likely. Pressure may emerge first in cyclical industries whose results directly depend on the pace of economic growth. These include industrials, consumer discretionary (durable goods), transportation, financials, and parts of the materials/commodities segment. The market may begin to price in weaker revenues and slower profit growth specifically in these sectors

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

US 30 index forecast: recovering after the sell-off

The US 30 index is undergoing a correction after a strong decline caused by the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East. The US 30 forecast for today is negative.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US unemployment came in at 4.4% in February
2. Market impact: the data has a mixed effect on the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The release of the US unemployment rate at 4.4%, above a 4.3% forecast and the previous figure of 4.3%, indicates a slight deterioration in labour market conditions. Although the change is relatively modest, such data traditionally attracts increased attention from financial market participants, as the labour market is one of the key indicators of the US economy’s health.

The composition of the US 30 index is particularly important. The index includes large corporations from industrials, financials, technology, consumer sectors, and healthcare. Therefore, labour market macroeconomic data can affect the index through shifts in expectations for future demand for these companies’ products and services.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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Geopolitical tensions push Brent towards new price records

Geopolitics remains the main driver of oil price gains, with Brent quotes currently standing at 93.70 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 12 March 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

1. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed
2. The IEA’s record release of strategic reserves proved largely ineffective
3. Brent prices may continue to rise towards 100.00–110.00 USD per barrel

Fundamental analysis

Brent fundamental analysis for today, 12 March 2026, takes into account that prices are correcting within an overall uptrend, trading around 93.70 USD per barrel.

The Brent outlook for 12 March 2026 also factors in that Brent crude remains in the eye of the storm triggered by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The disruption of key strategic shipping routes poses a serious threat to the oil market and is one of the triggers behind the Brent rally.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

USD in the spotlight: expected rise in US job openings could push AUDUSD lower

After a sharp rally, the AUDUSD pair continues to correct ahead of US data. The AUDUSD rate is testing 0.7020. Discover more in our analysis for 13 March 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. US job openings (JOLTS): previously at 6.542 million, projected at 6.760 million
2. The USD continues to strengthen ahead of US data
3. AUDUSD forecast for 13 March 2026: 0.6970

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD outlook favours the US dollar, which has a strong chance to continue recovering against the Australian dollar. The pair is currently trading around 0.7020.

US job openings (JOLTS) is an economic indicator that shows the number of unfilled jobs in the country at the end of the month. The report is published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and provides insight into labour demand, the level of economic activity, and the balance between employers and job seekers.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

USDCAD under pressure: what will the Fed and the Bank of Canada decide on this historic day

The USDCAD pair is awaiting the Fed and BoC interest rate decisions, with quotes testing the 1.3700 level. Find more details in our analysis for 16 March 2026.

USDCAD forecast: key takeaways

1. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada rate decisions
2. High oil prices support the CAD
3. USDCAD forecast for 16 March 2026: 1.3630

Fundamental analysis

Today’s USDCAD outlook is optimistic for the CAD: after a correction, the pair may continue its downward trajectory, with quotes currently around 1.3700.

This week, the USDCAD pair will be pulled between high oil prices (supportive for the CAD) and broad demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. Wednesday will be the day of truth, with the decisions of the two central banks setting the pair’s direction through the end of the month

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: the index halts its decline

After the sell-off, the US 500 rebounded and formed a support level. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US GDP growth in Q4 2025 came in at 0.7%
2. Market impact: the data is negative for the US stock market

Fundamental analysis

A much weaker-than-expected US quarterly GDP growth release, with the actual figure coming in at 0.7%, below the forecast of 1.4% and the previous 4.4%, is generally perceived as a negative signal for the US 500 index. This outcome indicates a noticeable slowdown in economic activity, thereby increasing concerns that corporate revenue and earnings growth over the coming quarters may be weaker than previously anticipated.

For the US 500, the initial reaction may be mixed, but the overall balance of factors is more likely unfavourable. On the one hand, weaker GDP increases the probability of a more dovish Federal Reserve stance in the future, which typically supports equity valuations via lower bond yields and a lower cost of capital.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

GBPUSD under pressure: focus on geopolitics and the Bank of England decision

The GBPUSD pair is consolidating around 1.3365 as the market is awaiting the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. Find more details in our analysis for 18 March 2026.

GBPUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. The GBPUSD pair appears weak, but it is still attempting to recover
2. The Middle East conflict may influence the Bank of England’s decision
3. GBPUSD forecast for 18 March 2026: 1.3370

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate is hovering around 1.3365 midweek. The pound is attempting to rebound after a sharp decline that pushed it to three-month lows.

The market is focused on the escalation of the Middle East conflict and its potential impact on the Bank of England’s policy ahead of the upcoming meeting.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: the index has resumed a downtrend

The JP 225 stock index broke out of a sideways range and started to decline. The JP 225 forecast for today is negative.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: Japan’s balance of trade came in at 57.27 billion JPY in February
2. Market impact: the effect is favourable for the Japanese stock market

Fundamental analysis

The current reading is generally positive for the Japanese stock market, as the actual trade balance figure turned out to be significantly better than the forecast: instead of the expected deficit, a surplus was recorded. This means Japan’s external trade position improved noticeably during the reporting period, so the market receives a signal that the export sector, industrial production, and external demand are in a more resilient state than previously expected.

For the JP 225 index, this is typically a favourable macroeconomic factor, because Japan’s equity market is heavily dependent on foreign trade conditions, export activity, and the global industrial cycle.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

XAUUSD is consolidating in a triangle - strong momentum is building

XAUUSD prices are attempting to recover after a sharp sell-off, but pressure from fundamental factors still limits the upside. Quotes currently stand at 4,677 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 20 March 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. XAUUSD remains under pressure amid rising energy prices
2. The Federal Reserve stated that rate cuts are not under consideration until inflation shows a sustained slowdown
3. Lower expectations for rate cuts reduce gold’s investment appeal

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are undergoing a correction after an aggressive decline that lasted for two consecutive trading sessions. The key support level formed at 4,520 USD, where buyers managed to hold the price and prevent a further fall. Despite the local rebound, the daily chart shows persistent risks of forming a large Triangle pattern, which could become the basis for renewed upward momentum if the upper boundary breaks.

Gold remains under pressure amid rising energy prices caused by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Higher energy costs increase inflation risks and reduce the likelihood of a shift to softer monetary policy. Against this backdrop, investors continue to reallocate capital in favour of the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

What lies ahead for USDCAD: oil and the Bank of Canada versus the US Fed

The USDCAD pair continues its correction while waiting for fresh drivers. Quotes are hovering around 1.3725. Discover more in our analysis for 23 March 2026.

USDCAD forecast: key takeaways

1. Rising oil prices increase export revenues and capital inflows into Canada
2. On 18 March 2026, the Bank of Canada kept the key rate at 2.0%
3. The US Federal Reserve left the rate unchanged at 3.75%

Fundamental analysis

Today’s USDCAD outlook favours the Canadian dollar: after the correction, the pair may form a new downward wave, with quotes currently hovering around 1.3725.

The main driver today is the escalation around the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump is considering a ground operation to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, a key oil hub. This statement pushed oil prices above 100.00 USD per barrel.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Gold is losing its crown: why the dollar is now at its peak while XAUUSD is falling

After the decline, gold (XAUUSD) is attempting to recover, with quotes testing the 4,370 USD mark. Discover more in our analysis for 24 March 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. US manufacturing PMI: previously at 51.6, projected at 51.5
2. US services PMI: previously at 51.7, projected at 52.0
3. XAUUSD forecast for 24 March 2026: 4,612

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold prices continue their corrective wave, currently hovering around the 4,370 USD per ounce level.

Yesterday, 23 March, the market went on a real rollercoaster ride: prices first plummeted below 4,100 USD, breaking through five support levels in a row, and then sharply surged by more than 300 USD on news from the White House.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

USDJPY is testing 160.00: can BoJ statements withstand the dollar’s rise

After the publication of the BoJ meeting minutes, the yen continues to lose ground, with quotes testing the 159.00 mark. More details are in our analysis for 25 March 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

1. The minutes of the Bank of Japan’s January meeting have been published
2. The oil shock is choking Japan’s economy
3. USDJPY forecast for 25 March 2026: 160.00

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for 25 March 2026 looks positive for the USD, as the USDJPY pair is forming an upward wave after a correction and may continue to rise. At the moment, quotes are trading around the 159.00 mark.

This morning, the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s January meeting were published, and they turned out to be far more hawkish than the market had expected. The document is literally filled with the regulator’s determination to tighten monetary policy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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Brent oil prices back at 100 USD: what is hidden behind Iran’s threats and geopolitics

After falling sharply, Brent prices are recovering and testing the 100.00 USD mark. Find out more in our analysis for 26 March 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

1. Iraq and its neighbours are being forced to cut oil production
2. Oil continues to trade on the news
3. Brent forecast for 26 March 2026: 105.50

Fundamental analysis

The Brent fundamental analysis for today, 26 March 2026, takes into account that Brent crude is playing a dangerous pricing game, recovering the previous session’s losses amid contradictory signals about negotiations between the US and Iran. In the morning, oil prices again moved above the 100 USD per barrel mark.

The main narrative of today is the market’s understanding that the key artery of global oil trade remains paralysed despite a temporary easing in rhetoric. Iran officially notified the International Maritime Organization that it would allow passage through the strait only to vessels from friendly countries, subject to coordination and payment of fees.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The Australian dollar back in play: how US inflation and the Consumer Sentiment Index may strengthen AUDUSD

After losing ground, the Australian dollar is making another attempt to recover, with AUDUSD quotes testing the 0.6890 level. Discover more in our analysis for 27 March 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. US inflation expectations from the University of Michigan: previously at 3.4%, projected at 3.4%
2. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: previously at 56.6, projected at 55.5
3. AUDUSD forecast for 27 March 2026: 0.6960

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast favours the Australian dollar, which has every chance of recovering against the USD, with the pair currently trading around 0.6890.

According to the forecast for 27 March 2026, US inflation expectations from the University of Michigan may remain unchanged at 3.4%. It is worth remembering that the indicator had been falling for several months from 4.2 to 3.4. Actual data at the previous level can be considered neutral, indicating some stabilisation in the US economy. However, a worse-than-expected actual reading may affect the AUDUSD rate, strengthening the Australian dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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160.00 is the psychological barrier for USDJPY: who will win, the dollar or the Japanese yen

The yen is on the verge of intervention by the BoJ. The USDJPY pair broke above the psychological 160.00 mark and, after correcting, is trading around the 159.60 level. Discover more in our analysis for 30 March 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

1. After testing the 160.46 mark, the USDJPY pair plummeted
2. The BoJ prepares for an intervention
3. The Japanese regulator is ready to defend its currency at any cost

Fundamental analysis

Today, 30 March 2026, the USDJPY currency pair staged a real drama worthy of a Hollywood blockbuster. Within just a few hours, the exchange rate first hit a new 20-month high by testing the 160.46 mark and then plummeted, reflecting the harshest intervention threats from the Japanese authorities in the past two years.

At the moment, quotes are consolidating around 159.60, balancing on a thin line between the real threat of currency intervention by the BoJ and the dollar as a safe-haven currency.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: the index falls more than 10%

The US 500 is falling rapidly, exceeding average seasonal fluctuation levels. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US services PMI preliminarily came in at 51.1 in March
2. Market impact: the data is negative for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The release of the US services PMI data turned out to be moderately weak for equities. The actual US services PMI came in at 51.1 compared to a forecast of 52.0 and a previous reading of 51.7. This means the services sector is still expanding, since the index remains above 50.0, but the pace of growth slowed more than the market expected.

For the US 500, such news more often creates a moderately negative outlook in the short term. This is especially noticeable if the market had been positioned for stronger macroeconomic data ahead of the release.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team