{quote} yea hence i stopped and waiting for a clearer signal
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- #19,421
- Mar 23, 2026 4:19am Mar 23, 2026 4:19am
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,527 Posts
- #19,423
- Mar 23, 2026 4:42am Mar 23, 2026 4:42am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 2,290 Posts
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
- #19,425
- Edited 7:42am Mar 23, 2026 7:13am | Edited 7:42am
- Joined Sep 2025 | Status: Trader | 1,046 Posts
- #19,427
- Mar 23, 2026 8:28am Mar 23, 2026 8:28am
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,527 Posts
Maybe its too soon to take out 1.1667 and eu finds a correction lower again but the bear has weakened more for sure after trumps taco time! 
It will drop like a brick if the bombings continue.
It will drop like a brick if the bombings continue.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- #19,428
- Mar 23, 2026 8:38am Mar 23, 2026 8:38am
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,527 Posts
Maybe its too soon to take out 1.1667 and eu finds a correction lower again but the bear has weakened more for sure after trumps taco time!
We'll trade up to 1.1700/42 if the weekly pivot hold this week!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
Maybe its too soon to take out 1.1667 and eu finds a correction lower again but the bear has weakened more for sure after trumps taco time!
- #19,431
- Edited 9:52am Mar 23, 2026 9:26am | Edited 9:52am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 2,290 Posts
{quote} update That is exactly the type of fundamental shock that either completely destroys technical analysis or perfectly confirms it. Trump's tweet at such a time acted as a massive liquidity injection right at the lower boundary of the red descending channel. It is interesting that Trump's tweet came after the price touched the lower red line of the descending channel. 1. Breaking the Red Channel (Shorts Trapped) That massive white candle on the chart literally "flew through" the upper boundary of the red channel. Everyone waiting for a pullback...
We are still bullish on H1 as long as we hold 1.1530.
And this pullback to 1.1580 is completely healthy so far.
CHOCH: ~1.1530 → bullish startBOS: 1.1640 → bullish trend confirmation
The most important factor is where the higher low forms after the BOS.
- Retrace to 1.1580 – 1.1550 → reaction → continuation
- Deeper retrace to 1.1530 → still OK (main zone)
Invalidation:
break below 1.1530 = problem
break below 1.1490 = CHOCH in the opposite direction (bearish)
1. 1.1580 as a "Psychological Barrier"
- Above (Buyers): If we hold above this level, the market shows that buyers are willing to purchase even at these "higher" prices after the bounce. This puts pressure on our problematic green upper line.
- Below (Retrace): As soon as a candle closes below 1.1580, all those who jumped into Longs late (FOMO) will start to panic and close their positions. This will trigger a downward chain reaction.
2. What are we looking for in a "Deeper Retrace"? If we fall below 1.1580, the targets for the retrace are:
- 1.1530 – 1.1550 Zone: This is the H1 CHoCH level. In trading, it is very common for the market to return and test the "scene of the crime" (breakout point) after such an aggressive breakout to pick up missing liquidity.
- White line 1.1525: This would be a deep retrace, but still technically healthy, as long as we do not fall lower.
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
- #19,433
- Mar 23, 2026 9:58am Mar 23, 2026 9:58am
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,527 Posts
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- #19,434
- Edited 10:15am Mar 23, 2026 10:00am | Edited 10:15am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 2,290 Posts
EURUSD H4
rising wedge
The chance of breaking today's high (1.1627) during today's session is minimal.
1.1580 (Pivot) – Holding If we close the day above this level, bulls still have a chance tomorrow morning.
1.1550 (Retrace) – Drop below Pivot If we fall here, it confirms that the upper green line on H4 is the definitive ceiling for this week.
Today was about Trump and emotions; tomorrow will be about whether those gains can hold.
1.1617 is not a major S/R, but:
a very important intraday reaction zone (mini supply)
which decides whether the market will take one more look higher.
Practical use: 1.1617 = flip zone
rising wedge
The chance of breaking today's high (1.1627) during today's session is minimal.
1.1580 (Pivot) – Holding If we close the day above this level, bulls still have a chance tomorrow morning.
1.1550 (Retrace) – Drop below Pivot If we fall here, it confirms that the upper green line on H4 is the definitive ceiling for this week.
Today was about Trump and emotions; tomorrow will be about whether those gains can hold.
1.1617 is not a major S/R, but: a very important intraday reaction zone (mini supply)which decides whether the market will take one more look higher.
Practical use: 1.1617 = flip zone- below = short reactions
- above = long continuation
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
- #19,437
- Mar 23, 2026 11:24am Mar 23, 2026 11:24am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Liverpool's KOP | 8,041 Posts
{quote} Seems we are going up!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
- #19,438
- Mar 23, 2026 11:16pm Mar 23, 2026 11:16pm
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,527 Posts
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- #19,440
- Mar 24, 2026 1:45am Mar 24, 2026 1:45am
The 1.15800 level on the 4-hour chart has been acting as strong support since yesterday, with no candle closing below it. This has solidified its position as a key support level. A break below this level could open the door for a retest of the 1.15550 and 1.15350 levels.
Often, your absence is better than your presence.