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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #1,301
  • Dec 7, 2006 1:55pm Dec 7, 2006 1:55pm
Quoting poekmeister
Pipsteve,
The RSX is a Jurik RSI (Mark Jurik has invented some smoothers and applied them to standard indicators like RSI). I found the version I use on other forums in the past.
Really appreciate it, thanks a million!
Steve
  • #1,302
  • Dec 7, 2006 4:07pm Dec 7, 2006 4:07pm
Quoting coolshades
paul,

may i recommend london. its warm, sunny the year round, the people are friendly, never talk about the weather...
Hi Cool,

I too used to live in London. Could never get used to the 6 hours of daylight during winter days. The part of Australia I'm in might be cold in winter but at least it's daylight for 11 hours a day.

Fozzy
  • #1,303
  • Dec 7, 2006 4:40pm Dec 7, 2006 4:40pm
Very nice, thanks for sharing with us! (I see more testing in the future.)



Quoting poekmeister
Hi all, I have been lurking around for last 2 weeks reading and rereading all posts. My compliments to Fozzy and Beachbum for making this system so effective and simple to use.

I too had to have to make some tweaks to ease the creative part of the mind...

To summarise my method/tweaks:

 

  1. I use the RSI(8)-blue / EMA(8)-yellow crossover. I have included an RSX(8)-purple. I have observed that when both RSI and RSX cross at the same bar, the potential move is larger and more likely to happen. I will still take a trade if only RSI crosses, though will have a smaller TP. The bollinger-bands are in there however, I don't use them (thinking to get rid of them)

  1. I have the Vegas tunnel up with price and an additional EMA100-grey and EMA200-white as the EMAs act as R/S levels, especially at the D1 timeframe. To finish it off, I added weekly-pivots as R/S level.
  2. ATR(10) as per Beach Fozzy as initial S/L.
  3. Finally, I have FX Sniper CCI to measure strenght of trend, normal settings in a fourth window
  4. I paper trade the following pairs (CISCO post): 4 majors, CADJPY,EURAUD,EURCAD,EURJPY,GBPCHF (maybe I add more if I am more experienced)
  5. I am in The Netherlands, so I am at CET. Demo account North Finance. I will evaluate the charts at 20:00 CET and consider that as if the day was closed. I will take the position at time.

My entry is not 100% mechanical but I will look at following factors to decide to enter:

  1. position of RSI cross in zones >80, 80-60, 60-40, 40-20, <20

    If >60 only small counter trends are allowed (1/3 ATR TP)

    If 60-40 normal FOZZY rules, 1 ATR S/L and TS

    If<40 only small counter trends are allowed, (1/3 ATR TP)
  2. the presence/absence of RSX cross the EMA8
  3. the strength of the trend: EMA100/EMA200/Tunnel and the FX Sniper CCI).



    if we trade countertrend, I want to see the FX sniper CCI declining (in case of buy) and increasing (sell) for a while.

I have attached a screen shot of my setup, including the GBPJPY trade of 7 DEC which I did not take. At 6 dec:
- RSI cross only (no RSX, cautious) <40 level so only countertrend
- FX Sniper CCI changed to decline again at 6 dec and price was around fib-level with strong trend still in place.

  • #1,304
  • Dec 7, 2006 5:19pm Dec 7, 2006 5:19pm
wHAT IS AN RSX?
  • #1,305
  • Dec 7, 2006 5:20pm Dec 7, 2006 5:20pm
please go back to 1302 & 1303



Quoting forexdanofsa
wHAT IS AN RSX?
  • #1,306
  • Dec 7, 2006 5:27pm Dec 7, 2006 5:27pm
Dave.......I have a friendly piece of advice for you: READ and DIGEST everything in this thread before you ask. Just about every imagineable question that needs to be asked has already been asked......and answered. This comes from a guy who trades for a living, reads and studies constantly. JMO!



Quoting forexdanofsa
wHAT IS AN RSX?
  • #1,307
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:08pm Dec 7, 2006 6:08pm
Thanks for the advice, I've begun reading am currently on page 8. Great stuff.

Thanks BB
  • #1,308
  • Dec 8, 2006 12:53pm Dec 8, 2006 12:53pm
Today I closed out a counter trend buy on USDCH F with 30pips profit. I have attached the D1 and H1 timeframe with the trade dynamics.

At first I was "disappointed" to see I had been taken out so early as today USDCHF went up for another 50pips or so. However when sooming in I noticed that the original S/L @ low of signal day would have been taken out in the pre-news spike. So I was lucky to bag the 30pips profit and now I feel happy about that.

The lesson to learn is: don't be too greedy. Count your blessings. The real big ones will come occasionally....you can't win 'm all....

ps. How do I make my pictures appear in the message rather than in a link?
Attached Images
  • #1,309
  • Dec 8, 2006 1:04pm Dec 8, 2006 1:04pm
My Trades for this half week (I started with majors on 6 December and with other pairs on 7 December):

Closed trades (wk49)

EURUSD: +30
GBDUSD: +45
USDCHF: +30
==========
Total: +105 nett pips=> THANK YOU FOZZY & BB!
  • #1,310
  • Dec 8, 2006 4:17pm Dec 8, 2006 4:17pm
BB,
I know you use Vegas fibs on your charts. When I read through the Vegas folder I noticed Vegas only gave fibs on 8 pairs. How do you set up your charts with all the other pairs? I'm guessing you're using ATR's from the original 8 charts and matching them as closely as possible to the other pairs you trade. Is that right, or have you devised another method? Thanks!
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #1,311
  • Dec 8, 2006 4:38pm Dec 8, 2006 4:38pm
Quoting cisco
BB,
I know you use Vegas fibs on your charts. When I read through the Vegas folder I noticed Vegas only gave fibs on 8 pairs. How do you set up your charts with all the other pairs? I'm guessing you're using ATR's from the original 8 charts and matching them as closely as possible to the other pairs you trade. Is that right, or have you devised another method? Thanks!
Not sure what what fib levels BB uses but I found the levels given in the Vegas files are not quite suitable for what we were doing.

You really need to go through each pair and find what matches. If the daily bars are crossing more than one level daily then try a different setting.

Likewise some may need adjusting the other way if the daily bars aren't reaching the fibs.

Also bear in mind we are using the fib levels as a take profit point. The Vegas method is looking for a move to an extreme level and then a reversal back to the tunnel.

I have found that using the risk models of 1 & 3 work for the majority of pairs. These give fibs at 89, 144, 233 & 377.

I also modified the Vegas daily indicator to give me a risk model 0. This makes a lower set of fibs at 34, 55 & 89. I found EURGBP & EURCHF pairs never fitted the vegas model because of the smaller movements.
  • #1,312
  • Dec 8, 2006 8:23pm Dec 8, 2006 8:23pm
Quoting willf
Not sure what what fib levels BB uses but I found the levels given in the Vegas files are not quite suitable for what we were doing.

You really need to go through each pair and find what matches. If the daily bars are crossing more than one level daily then try a different setting.

Likewise some may need adjusting the other way if the daily bars aren't reaching the fibs.

Also bear in mind we are using the fib levels as a take profit point. The Vegas method is looking for a move to an extreme level and then a reversal back to the tunnel.

I have found that using the risk models of 1 & 3 work for the majority of pairs. These give fibs at 89, 144, 233 & 377.

I also modified the Vegas daily indicator to give me a risk model 0. This makes a lower set of fibs at 34, 55 & 89. I found EURGBP & EURCHF pairs never fitted the vegas model because of the smaller movements.
Thanks Willf
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #1,313
  • Dec 8, 2006 9:48pm Dec 8, 2006 9:48pm
Does anyone knows how to set the fib levels of Vegas in the VT trader?
  • #1,314
  • Dec 9, 2006 3:38am Dec 9, 2006 3:38am
Good morning, all.

I have not made sufficient posts to add a link, but a very generous programmer elsewhere ("TRO"), through whom I first heard of this thread, has written a couple of excellent RadarScreen indicators, which I am using. Screenshot attached : the TRADE column shows the Fozzy position (RSI > or < MA, RSI crossing above/below), the IND= column is something with which I am experimenting for stops and targets.

Original Fozzy uses the high or low of the previous daily candle for the stop. Beach Fozzy is currently using 100% ATR and someone (sorry, cannot remember who) kindly shared that they had reduced from 70% ATR to 50%, as most trades that went to 50% went on to 70% (but did they reach 100% !?). I have been following a thread by FXiGoR, a professional trader who posts elsewhere, on a dynamic breakout system which uses a kind of "exponential averge daily range" as part of its breakout range calculation. In my screenshot, the IND= column is my development of this, using ATR instead of ADR : I basically take the 1,5,21 & 55 period ATR levels and divide by 4. I call it "exponential", as the calculation is weighted towards the most recent volatiltiy.

Of course, the indicator is just a convenience : it is a very simple calculation. And will it be in any better than using a straightforward ATR(10) ? No idea... but this post is an update of my R&D. And to respond to someone else awhile back, I am trading live with 3 minilots per entry (as I usually scale out of positions, against all the advice that Van Tharp offers...).

I am forward testing with the intention of "fixing" (as much as I fix anything) my rules for a mid-Jan restart (on the beach in Goa at the beginning of Jan ).

OK... it's the weekend & the sun is shining in Amsterdam after days of non-stop rain... little daughter wants to go to the skating rink. Turn off that computer !

J.
Attached Image
  • #1,315
  • Dec 9, 2006 5:52am Dec 9, 2006 5:52am
Quoting willf
Not sure what what fib levels BB uses but I found the levels given in the Vegas files are not quite suitable for what we were doing.

You really need to go through each pair and find what matches. If the daily bars are crossing more than one level daily then try a different setting.

Likewise some may need adjusting the other way if the daily bars aren't reaching the fibs.

Also bear in mind we are using the fib levels as a take profit point. The Vegas method is looking for a move to an extreme level and then a reversal back to the tunnel.

I have found that using the risk models of 1 & 3 work for the majority of pairs. These give fibs at 89, 144, 233 & 377.

I also modified the Vegas daily indicator to give me a risk model 0. This makes a lower set of fibs at 34, 55 & 89. I found EURGBP & EURCHF pairs never fitted the vegas model because of the smaller movements.
Will

Could you list the pairs on which you find risk models 1 and 3 work best

Thanks

howard
Regards
  • #1,316
  • Dec 9, 2006 10:23am Dec 9, 2006 10:23am
Here are the fib levels for each model as written in the indicator code. Rather than making a list of which model(s) to use with each pair, I think it is better to experiment a little with these settings. Put one or more on a daily chart and zoom out. Look for price patterns that regularly follow the fib levels. When you can see how the price follows several fib levels, use this model (or models, since some overlap). willf suggested adding level 34 for the slow moving, less volatile pairs like EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF, and I agree with that. Most of my charts have two models together so I can watch the price react to these fib levels. I not only use these for t/p values but also for reversal points as originally discussed by Vegas in his documents.

I am a firm believer that to make a system work, a person needs to become intimately familiar with HOW that system works. Researching, learning, digesting, experimenting, tweeking.............all these are a necessary part of the process that will help a trader become successful. Just throwing a few indicators on a chart, pulling the trigger when two lines cross and expecting success is IMO not the road to success. Because when an expected winner becomes a looser, we need to understand WHAT happened and WHY!


//Model #1 89,144,233

//Model #2 144,233,377

//Model #3 233,377,610

//Model #4 377,610,987

//Model #5 55,89,144
  • #1,317
  • Dec 9, 2006 2:48pm Dec 9, 2006 2:48pm
wilf could you post the modified vegas daily which has level 0?

thanks.



Quoting willf
Not sure what what fib levels BB uses but I found the levels given in the Vegas files are not quite suitable for what we were doing.

You really need to go through each pair and find what matches. If the daily bars are crossing more than one level daily then try a different setting.

Likewise some may need adjusting the other way if the daily bars aren't reaching the fibs.

Also bear in mind we are using the fib levels as a take profit point. The Vegas method is looking for a move to an extreme level and then a reversal back to the tunnel.

I have found that using the risk models of 1 & 3 work for the majority of pairs. These give fibs at 89, 144, 233 & 377.

I also modified the Vegas daily indicator to give me a risk model 0. This makes a lower set of fibs at 34, 55 & 89. I found EURGBP & EURCHF pairs never fitted the vegas model because of the smaller movements.
  • #1,318
  • Dec 9, 2006 5:12pm Dec 9, 2006 5:12pm
Quoting coolshades
wilf could you post the modified vegas daily which has level 0?

thanks.
Here you go.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Vegas Daily.zip   1 KB | 659 downloads
  • #1,319
  • Dec 10, 2006 1:23pm Dec 10, 2006 1:23pm
It would be nice to develop a FAQ file and attatch it to the front post but that should not substitute for reading and keeping up with the thread. It could be just a text file full of cut and pastes of pertinent information found in previous posts. Also include the important indicator files too. Ummm....maybe I'll sit down and attack that idea myself. Have to get Fozzy to attach it to the front post or just remember the number and refer folks to it. Having the file or a reference to it on the first post makes it a no brainer for a newbie or anyone to go to. IMHO as well.

Quoting BeachBum
Dave.......I have a friendly piece of advice for you: READ and DIGEST everything in this thread before you ask. Just about every imagineable question that needs to be asked has already been asked......and answered. This comes from a guy who trades for a living, reads and studies constantly. JMO!
"Though this be madness, yet there is method in it." -Hamlet Act II
  • #1,320
  • Dec 11, 2006 1:52pm Dec 11, 2006 1:52pm
I am posting this message as a test, nothing has been posted on this thread for two days, it is unprecedented, wondering if it has been moved elsewhere.


howard
Regards
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