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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #6,441
  • Aug 27, 2007 3:12am Aug 27, 2007 3:12am
Did somebody make an EA on this method ?

IF no, just contribute to edit a decision chart, I can code it for the community...

....
  • #6,442
  • Aug 27, 2007 5:13am Aug 27, 2007 5:13am
Quoting Palmer
Guess who???

Started thinking (insert vomiting sound here) f-f-f-fundam-m-mentally about the Eur$ here...scary. Anyway, the durable goods orders came out way higher than expected last Friday, this was supposed to be good for the greenback. Buuut, the greenback fell against the EURO$. Also, Trichet speaks tomorrow morning about interest rates (red flag) at 9am EST USA. Be cautious with what is supposed to be happening with the news reports. My guess about the opposite reaction to last Friday's news was the credit/housing trouble over here in the states, where's Donna? People might be thinking that the Fed will lower rates in Sept again, and fixing our housing problems over here might overshadow everything for a while...wacky.

Another note about posting trades on the blog. I have MT4 sound an alarm at about midnight and 4am my time, for me that's late and very early. If I enter a position it's hard enough to see the micro size fonts that MT4 uses much less start typing for a trade post. Soooo, there's a good chance that some of those entries will not show up in the blog. It's all part of being human. I'm not sure who said it but it's gold..If you had a choice to have a 'super power' what would it be??? Flying would be cool but the power to not have to sleep would be close to it...

Trade well.
Hi Palmer & All! Were you reading my journal while I was trading G/J earlier in the month? Lots of references to I'm going to vomit! ...nothing makes you feel quite as alive as being up 300 pips...being down 300...all in an hour!

There is a point to why I bring this up...The FANTASTIC US news on Friday...why did it send Euro and Cable up? You would've thought on the surface that the exact opposite would have happened....that is until you think of the carry trade! (PS..the great durable goods news actually took down the pricing % for a US rate decrease in September).

The only question in the market for the last month has been risk vs. risk aversion. Risk aversion was winning out w/the collapse in credit liquidity. The carry trades unwound a bit and brought both fiber and cable down w/them. Then the emotional marketplace began to panic...fear crept into the European markets b/c they began to realize that their central banks would have to respond to the impending US Contagion...maybe rates wouldn't be upped...maybe the subprime woe's would spread.

Friday's data coupled w/thursday's strong stockmarket showing in the U.S. alleviated those woes (temporariy?) and put risk back on the table. The U.S. didn't look ready to implode on itself afterall....and thus the market went back to liking risk. The Carry was back on!!! Because U/J, E/J and G/J became rockships, E/U and G/U went up too! Participants figured that the market assumptions were back to pre-sub-prime worry mode. Former trends also resumed...and A/U and kiwi took back some ground. Phillip has been a master at getting us to consider the emotion of the market....and Friday was a prime example of emotions taking control and running forward. Very Keynes like in anticpation of crowd psychology!

I know...this method doesn't deal w/fundies....but I do like to consider them...and lately, I've been wondering what the real story behind the sub-prime fiasco is (I have a bit of a contrarian thought at the moment only b/c of Bank Of America's bailout of Countrywide for which B of A receiced Countrywide stock...and the cheapness of the CDO's changing hands....hmmm...someone's going to make a lot of money w/the bankruptcy of many market participants so quickly...sorry...that is out of the scope of this thread.).

Don't forget, today is a holiday in London. Also, w/Labor Day weekend approaching, the market may be thin this week. Looking forward to the 10 AM EST existing home sales release today....but only U.S. market will be trading....so be careful all...Now, I'm off to look at the newest, hottest website on the web! Gotta click some ads too!! Currently flat in the market...

Talk to you all later,
Pips
  • #6,443
  • Aug 27, 2007 5:41am Aug 27, 2007 5:41am
Quoting 4newbie
Hi

me too russian
And me too russian.............
  • #6,444
  • Aug 27, 2007 6:17am Aug 27, 2007 6:17am
Quoting BIL2205
Hi, sorry about the confusion . I meant 21 EMa and not 29. Typo there.i just fixed it. Also looking at your chart you have 89EMA , it should be 89 SMA(simple) . I think that is why your 89 is so much closer to 365 and gave you the visual indication that it has already been tested. Please check your settings and see if it makes a difference on the distance between the Moving averages and then your perception of the trade you took might change.

About having a crystal ball. We all wish we had one. But remember i took the red pill.( sorry had to put this in, Matrix/ part 1 happens to be one of my all time favourite movies after God Father ofcourse ).
Anyways point being bye bye wonder land , Hello Reality. It has taken me a lot of hardwork, talking to the charts. posting in this thread, writing jibberish in notebooks only i can read: , cutting down to only 2 pairs for now. and most important of all NOT GIVING UP. Making/ accepting and learning from your mistakes is equally important. I feel blessed to be in the company of such generous people. I have days when i am out of focus and cant read the market properly. that is when i take a wrong trade or just stay out. So you have to make your own set of rules as to how u will trade. Iknow this post is getting long but one more thing i would like to add is that i have learned is to focus on one thing at a time. Your state of mind is extremly important. Switcing between time frames is recommended once you understand the concept of this system. Now that i feel like i am getting the hang of market motion , i started to look into 1 hour early entry. Had a few losses before understanding it. Now i feel somewhat confortable. so next step is to look at bigger time frames to see if the trade will survive before hitting the panic button. The daily helps in that.For the last euro long trade i took i saw on the daily chart that price had crossed 89 and still had not touched 21 but was moving in that direction, and 21 on daily chart was really close to 89 on 4 hour so that gave me a safe feeling. Also time of the day is important. Price does not really move much after 1600 gmt.
Now that i am concentrating on my entry i would like to focus more on my exits and have multiple lots. so make a plan as to how you want to move up. It is like going to school. 1st grade second grade etc. If you have several successful trades on what you were focusing to learn you are ready to move on to the next grade. It is about your own comfort level and how much time you can dedicate.This all might sound childish but trust me, if you want to treat this as a profession it takes time and patience.
It is not possible to take every trade. Like my analysis for current euro TC . Now i anticipate it as a valid signal and the trade can be taken up to 200 and like i said it just might get there today but what are you willing to risk to take on that trade.If you skip an oppurtunity because your money management does not allow it or for what ever reason .It is not healthy to look back on a trade and say. Oh i wish i had taken that. Trust me i have burned valuable time just mopping over trades.(Still do but less time ) Now i try to focus on what could be anticipated next instead of what could have been. Ok before forex factory blocks me out for writing the longest post ever.I think this helped you in some way. I think i for got your original question. Good luck.
Nadia.

Nadia,

Thanks very much for sharing your experience.
Your school metaphor makes a lot of sense. Right now i just want to concentrate of making good trades based on the system principles and slowly develop my own rules in the trading plan. Then only later i'll embark on issues.

Great post!
Mike
  • #6,445
  • Aug 27, 2007 6:47am Aug 27, 2007 6:47am
Thanks Donna!

I passed on the Rt on the E$ last night. Waiting until after Trichet speaks this morning. $Yen has all three lower ma's converging right now looking for direction. Will wait right now....
  • #6,446
  • Aug 27, 2007 7:44am Aug 27, 2007 7:44am
Quoting Palmer
Guess who???

Started thinking (insert vomiting sound here) f-f-f-fundam-m-mentally about the Eur$ here...scary. Anyway, the durable goods orders came out way higher than expected last Friday, this was supposed to be good for the greenback. Buuut, the greenback fell against the EURO$. Also, Trichet speaks tomorrow morning about interest rates (red flag) at 9am EST USA. Be cautious with what is supposed to be happening with the news reports. My guess about the opposite reaction to last Friday's news was the credit/housing trouble over here in the states, where's Donna? People might be thinking that the Fed will lower rates in Sept again, and fixing our housing problems over here might overshadow everything for a while...wacky.

Another note about posting trades on the blog. I have MT4 sound an alarm at about midnight and 4am my time, for me that's late and very early. If I enter a position it's hard enough to see the micro size fonts that MT4 uses much less start typing for a trade post. Soooo, there's a good chance that some of those entries will not show up in the blog. It's all part of being human. I'm not sure who said it but it's gold..If you had a choice to have a 'super power' what would it be??? Flying would be cool but the power to not have to sleep would be close to it...

Trade well.
Nice job Palmer, i will definetely 'visit' those sponsors as it looks like a really good thing you have going
  • #6,447
  • Aug 27, 2007 12:48pm Aug 27, 2007 12:48pm
Wow i see alot of thankyous are in order.
Palmer. Nice website. Looking forward to follow it as it develops.
Ira. Welcome back, i appreciate your comment.

Mike wong. I am glad you found my post informative. I wish you all the best in your forex career.

I took the euro short from 200 SMA, target was 8MA , however I closed it manually right before Trichet speech. But price did go down to my target. Oh well. Pips in the bank never hurt. Like palmer said. You can never go broke by taking profit. Now the scenario on euro is very interesting. 8 Ma is moving closer to 200 sma. Oly 22 pips away at this moment. so a bounce off 8 EMA to 200 is probably not an anticipated scenario. Even if price went up to 200 sma i would take a bounce off 200 down to 21 MA, since it has not been touched since price broke 89 on the 4 hour time frame.A bounce off 21 up to 200 might be a high probability trade as well.BUT this is all anticipation let the price motion guide your action confirmed by MACD. Trade Well.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #6,448
  • Aug 27, 2007 12:57pm Aug 27, 2007 12:57pm
It is British holiday today but cable might be setting up for a nice trade . Price broke 89 but did not however reach the 200 Sma. Right now below 8MA . a nice move down to 21 will be good. because i would anticipate a bounce off 21 up to 200 Sma.How ever keep in mind 365 is in the way and a bounce off that will be good. I will be keeping a close eye on both euro and cable for potential high probability trades. Good luck.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #6,449
  • Aug 27, 2007 5:11pm Aug 27, 2007 5:11pm
Quoting benniardi
Looking at EUR/USD pair, I have made 2 assumptions:
1. high last candle hit 200 sma, and view here should be going short.
2. and the macd are forming higher high, view should be short,

So, is it a good idea to entry the market right now? (market time 22:49, it's like 7 hours ahead of me.)

Thanks.


Updating...

Yes, my prediction was right, E/U going down as I have short position, and the MACD is forming higher high !! 28 pips so far.

Also, GBP/USD are forming double tops, and good time to sell short. 39 pips for this.

Happy trading =)
  • #6,450
  • Aug 27, 2007 5:20pm Aug 27, 2007 5:20pm
Well, at least I didn't lose any money....The Rt that formed at the close of the opening candle on Sunday is turning out to be pip friendly. I passed on it because it was the open for the week. I didn't realize that there was a holiday in London and the markets were closed there. Either way, congrats for those that got in. The $yen is still asleep trying to work a channel on the 1hr.

Still working on the site. Uh, I've got the correct .pdf file there now Phillip. I've done worse, believe me.....

Stay tuned, there's still lots to do....
  • #6,451
  • Aug 27, 2007 7:53pm Aug 27, 2007 7:53pm
How have the past months been with this system? Is it still averaging 300 pips a month? If you traded 5% margin that would be 15% a month returns! My top managed forex account isn't averaging that monthly. Maybe 1/2 of that and I have 8 different accounts with the best traders. Let's get realistic people!
  • #6,452
  • Aug 27, 2007 8:15pm Aug 27, 2007 8:15pm
Quoting gio9
How have the past months been with this system? Is it still averaging 300 pips a month? If you traded 5% margin that would be 15% a month returns! My top managed forex account isn't averaging that monthly. Maybe 1/2 of that and I have 8 different accounts with the best traders. Let's get realistic people!
The past few months with this system have been great.

The 13th through the 17th of this month for this system, per the rules, was fantastic.

Some people average under 300 pips a month.

Some people average 300 pips a month.

Some people average more than 300 pips per month.

This is not a short term strategy. Longer time frame = bigger moves.

If your top managed forex account isn't averaging 'that' monthly than look elsewhere.

The best traders?

Follow along....
  • #6,453
  • Aug 27, 2007 8:43pm Aug 27, 2007 8:43pm
The book link on the site is working but more important is the recycle link. I live in the states and I found some info about recycling in the UK, and South Africa, "The land of Phillip". If anyone know of some other tech recycling outlets...Australia, Japan, Russia...can you PM me that link so I can add it as well? Thanks...

$Yen may make a bounce to the upside on the 1hr chart w/MACD signal. The 4hr is still stuck in a range...
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  • #6,454
  • Aug 28, 2007 1:45am Aug 28, 2007 1:45am
Quoting gio9
How have the past months been with this system? Is it still averaging 300 pips a month? If you traded 5% margin that would be 15% a month returns! My top managed forex account isn't averaging that monthly. Maybe 1/2 of that and I have 8 different accounts with the best traders. Let's get realistic people!
Surely if you have not been at least 2years intensive in forex learning curve you wont make it in any system. People go to Universities study a 4year course only to come out and then learning the principles they have learned in theory in the practical realm still making mistakes. Only with time can the knowledge learned turned into practical reality and success.
Unfortunately the whole concept of Forex trading is presented as a one month teach yourself course and you can trade like the pro's. Why aren't there more pro's then. Because it is not that easy. It takes practice and applying constant successfull principals that will bring in success.
I have never given the idea that this sytem is easy. I also stated that 300 pips can be made on 2 pairs only (combined in a month) 150 each to EurUsd and GbpUsd on an average base.
Surely as I am over 10 years in stock markets and now 3 years in Forex for me it might be obtainable. For a new entry it could also take 3 years to eventialy obtain those results. Are you prepared to be educated for 3 years as a learner Engineer designing imaginary bridges, roads, buildings etc to learn the rules and laws and safety measures only to make your first real practical design after three years of theoretical practice under supervision of a senior design engineer.
If you can not commit yourself to this type of study in Forex learning you have come to the wrong place and should give your money to other people to manage it for you.
a Lot of people started this on post 1 and then jump to the last post and then start trading with at least 6000 posts missing inbetween because it takes to long to work through it. I get numerous replies if I dont have a shorter version of the thread as it is to much to work through.
If someone are not prepared to work through every post on this thread and only after going through it for the first time starts to make demo deals then he/she can stop immediately. And only after 30-50 demo live papertrades are made and over 80% are made according to the rules and principles as outlined in the thread you can become successfull.
So if you want to get realistic, decide to go through the thread and see after 50 live papertrades if it is true or not. Otherwise tell your managed account proffesionals of this thread.
Thanks
Phillip
  • #6,455
  • Aug 28, 2007 2:43am Aug 28, 2007 2:43am
Another target reached.

Sell-1.3670
Target - 21EMA

Price went to 21EMA. I then put my stoploss at 1.3640 for incase the price wants to go lower.

Stoploss hit at 1.3640 for +30pip gain.
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  • #6,456
  • Aug 28, 2007 2:57am Aug 28, 2007 2:57am
Phillip

Could not agree more.

I've been working with Forex for about 2 years and am just starting to get a handle on it.

I will also say your system is helping with my trading for which I am grateful.

Paul-L
  • #6,457
  • Aug 28, 2007 3:38am Aug 28, 2007 3:38am
I am very pleased to hear the positive feedback on your system! I am happy to see you have helped traders with their profitability. I will search the thread for live statements.. Unless you have any recent ones you could post. I have averaged 10% monthly on my accounts for the past 2.5 years of live trading. Which include negative months. Which is extraordinary. Find me something better and I will sign up.

I don't accept demo trading for true results since it never mirrors live accounts. Anyone have live statements? I guess you don't need to since your not a company.. but just curious.... I take this back since it is a development of a trading system..

Your system looks good and I will join the 800,000 or so that have read it previously.
  • #6,458
  • Aug 28, 2007 5:01am Aug 28, 2007 5:01am
Quoting gio9
I am very pleased to hear the positive feedback on your system! I am happy to see you have helped traders with their profitability. I will search the thread for live statements.. Unless you have any recent ones you could post. I have averaged 10% monthly on my accounts for the past 2.5 years of live trading. Which include negative months. Which is extraordinary. Find me something better and I will sign up.

I don't accept demo trading for true results since it never mirrors live accounts. Anyone have live statements? I guess you don't need to since your not a company.. but just curious.... I take this back since it is a development of a trading system..

Your system looks good and I will join the 800,000 or so that have read it previously.

10% Return monthly on 2% risk of capital is good investment. I wont be looking for something else if it has proven itself over 2 years. I will increase my capital to make the return on 2% capital risk more and keep it growing.

If demo trading was done according to the rules and specifications of the system the results are reliable as it proves the system is reliable. If live trading the system is causing different results due to human emotion(not keeping to the rules and specs) it means it is the trader and not the system that are in error. If anyone cannot learn to keep their emotions in tight they must not trade at all.

Most of the people are only trading this system for a couple of months. 8 Months max since January. Some trade demo still and others live. Still 2years and 4 months to go before those that started in Jan2007 will be highly (300pips per month)successfull traders.
  • #6,459
  • Edited 5:22am Aug 28, 2007 5:08am | Edited 5:22am
  •  shauny
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Still learning and never gonna stop | 127 Posts
Entry: 1.3641
Stoploss: currently BE, previously below 21ema
Target: 200sma 1.3670..
total +28pips
just closed at 1.3669. Possible resistance at 200sma and previous top.

Reasons: It was an early trade, macd did not show confirmation bar, but by looking at the price actions and 1hr confirmation, its enough to go for a high probabliity trade.. Hope u guys took it too!! Cheers!!
  • #6,460
  • Aug 28, 2007 5:20am Aug 28, 2007 5:20am
Been watching the Macd thread since the beginning. Just started really looking at it to add a tool to get the job done in trading. Any thoughts on the EurJpy?
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