EURUSD only

The EURUSD pair has tended to move sideways in the past three hours, with the US releasing several important economic data points today. The escalating war in the Middle East is also a global concern. If the war escalates, safe-haven flows may increase.

Quick Weekly Outlook

I shared this chart before the latest big drop started because I was expecting a spike to 1.20 area first as chart shows but didn't happen.

Is well, now we might have arrived at some zig zag pit stop area: ~1.1550... and here I expect bulls to retest 1.1705/35 area before continuing lower...

Happy Friday folks

Good morning guys.
Nothing to even be looking at all in this PA. I doubt that it would show us anything interesting, even if it does, I would be very cautious what I take. There are a lot of news on the way, therefore there would be a lot of inducement, and fake outs on the market.
This is my analysis. Just be careful on these conditions.

A successful Thursday printed what was needed. The low not initially taken in London so price pulled up to a new internal bearish 1H POI (1.16136) then took the bullish POI (1.15693). Ata posted his Quick Weekly Outlook a little earlier. His pivot of 1.1705 is inside my 4H bearish POI and 5m bearish range (1.16716-1.17135). As usual, we both align using completely different strategies.

1H
The order flow still flowing. The bullish POI (1.15693) created the bullish reaction but did not break structure to the upside. A new internal bullish POI (1.16018) has printed so I will look for this to be the bullish pivot to break the Internal-Hi (1.16548) and mitigate the next bearish POI (1.16716) before a decision is made to react bearish or continue bullish to the ultimate target (1.16716).

5m
This LTF order flow continues to be respected. The perfect combination of HTF (1H) and LTF (5m). The bullish POI (1.15886) inside the 1H POI (1.16018) is the perfect bullish pivot point as long as structure holds at 1.16446. If the Range-Hi (1.16474) is broken before mitigation of the POI then the setup has failed and we wait for the next.

I will start building longs within FVG, which we have on m15 and H1.

H1: We need a fresh breakout... Until then just noise I guess... Let's see...

If you don't mind, and because it's a very slow Friday with few participants I will illustrate what I see. Liquidity everywhere!

It's easy to see price holding a range and think it's hopeless and be frustrated. These are the exact emotions that cause people to retreat or jump in without a valid setup. Price will always print the same when it is in decision making mode like now. It is essential to read the micro moves to determine the most probable macro move.

Zoom out - macro. Above 1.16716 there is tons of liquidity. Below 1.15300 there is tons of liquidity. Price will end up at one of these areas.
Zoom in - micro. Where is price likely to find the liquidity it needs to make the move? I see a lot of liquidity between price and 1.16716. I see only a few large unmitigated candles between price and 1.15300.

Price needs fuel to make a bigger move. The internal HL at 1.15589 did not have enough fuel to mitigate the last liquidity in this structure, so it pushed up and got some more fuel at London open yesterday. I now expect price to print a new internal LL but hold the low at 1.15300 then make the run to the high.

Good luck to you.

I'm placing a stop-buy order at 1.1618. Until then, I'm selling pullbacks as long as price stays below 1.1610.

Happy last trading day of the week, everybody.

hey ata
just got a question that youve been trading for over a decade now do you still journalise your every trade?

This feels like we might see 1.1460 today.

IMO today we'll see the end of the down retr. from 1.2082 and up trend resumption next week.
Looking to long 1.1525

Ok. Taking a short at 1.1582.
SL at 1.1618 will be trailed.

Target hit

anybody still hoping to see the monday gap closed? :/

No

On the bigger picture (daily chart) it’s quite clear that EURUSD is still in a downtrend. The only question is how much further it can drop before we get some kind of counter-move. Technically, it could easily extend the move down toward the lower boundary of the trend channel around 1.1510–1.1490 before we might see another bounce.

On the other hand, it could just as well rally back to 1.1710–1.1730 and still remain within the broader downtrend. If it fails to close at least above 1.1580 today, the next likely target would most probably be somewhere in the 1.14xx area.

PS: By the way, US strategic bombers are reportedly heading toward the Middle East. Everyone can draw their own conclusions about what that might imply.

form 58K to -92K, what the hell

Very weak US labor market data, which explains the sharp moves we’re seeing right now. For the moment, I’m keeping my long position and will wait a bit for the market to calm down before adding to the position.

All good now?