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  • #223,321
  • Mar 4, 2026 4:19am Mar 4, 2026 4:19am
Quoting Leser
That's why the spike: Iran operatives made offer to discuss terms for ending war: New York Times! Will never happen with current regime therefore fake!
I hope they end the war for the sake of humanity.
  • #223,322
  • Mar 4, 2026 4:21am Mar 4, 2026 4:21am
Quoting anarchist4
daily candle close is what matters for swings. Wicks are made by day traders and are useful for them only Long from 1.1588. Stop: 1.1438 swing target:1.19

yesterday's low could be tested in two forms:
1)almost same low(double bottom)
2)lower low
1.15 should be the extreme. From there fundamentals take over, rate diff, ppp etc.
stronger US data can result in case one and two
  • #223,323
  • Mar 4, 2026 4:24am Mar 4, 2026 4:24am
Quoting jonasdao
Why I think the euro could move higher again: 1. Trump has a strong political incentive to keep oil prices low ahead of the midterm elections. Yesterday he also offered escort protection and insurance for oil tankers, which could help stabilize oil supply and reduce risk premiums in the energy market. 2. According to reports, the Assembly of Experts in Tehran may already have selected a successor – possibly Khamenei’s son Mojtaba. If this turns out to be correct, it could at least indicate some stabilization of the power structure and reduce the...
What you say isn't wrong but it is a completely one sided analysis, it ignores the Eurozone economic situation, the euro debt crises, the rate differential, funding the Ukraine war, the looming energy crisis, and a ton of news we don't know.

That being said, the latest little spike up looks a little bullish.
  • #223,324
  • Mar 4, 2026 4:24am Mar 4, 2026 4:24am
Quoting Leser
That's why the spike: Iran operatives made offer to discuss terms for ending war: New York Times! Will never happen with current regime therefore fake!
I would not say never – since it is not totally the old regime anymore.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #223,325
  • Mar 4, 2026 4:26am Mar 4, 2026 4:26am
Quoting Kejdi1
{quote} I hope they end the war for the sake of humanity.
Would love it too though will never happen with the Mullahs!
  • #223,326
  • Mar 4, 2026 4:28am Mar 4, 2026 4:28am
Quoting eozdural
{quote} What you say isn't wrong but it is a completely one sided analysis, it ignores the Eurozone economic situation, the euro debt crises, the rate differential, funding the Ukraine war, the looming energy crisis, and a ton of news we don't know. That being said, the latest little spike up looks a little bullish.
I agree. But most of the factors you mention were already in place when the euro was trading above 1.20. I’m mainly focusing on the events that unfolded since this weekend and the sharp drop in the euro since then.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #223,327
  • Mar 4, 2026 4:32am Mar 4, 2026 4:32am
Quoting jonasdao
{quote} I would not say never – since it is not totally the old regime anymore.
Wrong, the old regime is still in charge and calling the shots, even if they have installed new leaders who are even worse. As long as the people do not overthrow this system and bring about a new democratic order or whatever, nothing will change.
  • #223,328
  • Mar 4, 2026 4:32am Mar 4, 2026 4:32am
Quoting Leser
{quote} Would love it too though will never happen with the Mullahs!
With the tragic bombing of the girls’ school, there is no longer any hope for peace. I believe that even the limited iranian public support for the U.S./Israeli strikes declined further after that.
  • #223,329
  • Mar 4, 2026 4:36am Mar 4, 2026 4:36am
Quoting Leser
{quote} Would love it too though will never happen with the Mullahs!
no love for Iran, but the biggest threat to global security is the US right now. And to everyone's pocket, every single idiotic action the US takes is more inflation, and prices never go back to the starting point even if what caused it ends.
  • #223,330
  • Mar 4, 2026 4:37am Mar 4, 2026 4:37am
Quoting Leser
{quote} Wrong, the old regime is still in charge and calling the shots, even if they have installed new leaders who are even worse. As long as the people do not overthrow this system and bring about a new democratic order or whatever, nothing will change.
Let’s agree to disagree.
Many people in power in Iran are now threatened with losing everything. The Ayatollah is dead. That alone could create at least some room for negotiations – which is why I said I wouldn’t rule it out completely.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #223,331
  • Mar 4, 2026 5:15am Mar 4, 2026 5:15am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Quick D1 Outlook From this day on forwards I am now inclined to look for long opportunities inside the yellow zone... I will try to buy as low as I can, whenever I see a dip towards or slightly below ~1.1576 area (with momentum, dips to 1.1540 are still possible)! My first bull target would be a revisit to 1.1666 area, as some of you may guess why... Happy trading day folks {image}
you are in longs now?
  • #223,332
  • Mar 4, 2026 5:19am Mar 4, 2026 5:19am
Quoting Leser
Now that things have calmed down a bit, albeit with caution, the move could continue in this direction. If EURUSD can stabilize around the 1.16 area (H1), I see good chances that it could start moving higher from here. For that to happen, it must not drop below 1.1590 in the coming hours and days; otherwise, the short-term downtrend that began earlier this week could extend further. In the bigger picture (D1), however, it is still in a broader downtrend, with the upper boundary currently coming in around 1.1670–80. Given the volatility of the past...
I expected a rise to 1.1660-80 if the zone around 1.16 holds, which I posted this morning and which will soon be reached. Nevertheless, I believe that it will end again at 1.1660-80, and I will then take a short position again. Why? Because the rise is completely insubstantial, but I am still long until then. I have now set trailing stops in case it does not make it there and turns downwards beforehand.
  • #223,333
  • Mar 4, 2026 5:20am Mar 4, 2026 5:20am
We are technocrats; let's stop letting our emotions influence our trading. Let's simply consider the facts and how the market perceives those facts, and make our money.
  • #223,334
  • Mar 4, 2026 5:24am Mar 4, 2026 5:24am
Quoting Samrat24
{quote} you are in longs now?
Let's not rush things; the market is currently taking profits from the price drop over the past two days. The market is waiting for economic announcements before making clear decisions and limiting risks.
  • #223,335
  • Mar 4, 2026 5:32am Mar 4, 2026 5:32am
Quoting Lhelene
{quote} Let's not rush things; the market is currently taking profits from the price drop over the past two days. The market is waiting for economic announcements before making clear decisions and limiting risks.
If ADP comes in weak, I’d love to catch an initial drop to go long.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #223,336
  • Mar 4, 2026 5:38am Mar 4, 2026 5:38am
Quoting jonasdao
{quote} If ADP comes in weak, I’d love to catch an initial drop to go long.
There is a strong possibility that ADP will fall short of expectations. Expectations are often optimistic regarding ADP.
  • #223,337
  • Mar 4, 2026 5:39am Mar 4, 2026 5:39am
And you believe that the euro has the substance for an increase? Every hour, there is more bad news that is particularly devastating for Europe. Here is another example: on Tuesday, a Russian gas tanker was attacked by Ukrainian sea drones in the Mediterranean and caught fire.

Honestly, the outlook for Europe, especially the eurozone, looks catastrophic, which is not yet fully reflected in prices. But it will be, sooner or later. That's why I'm only playing short-term long scalps in EURUSD; otherwise, the trend remains clearly downward.
  • #223,338
  • Mar 4, 2026 5:44am Mar 4, 2026 5:44am
Quoting Leser
And you believe that the euro has the substance for an increase? Every hour, there is more bad news that is particularly devastating for Europe. Here is another example: on Tuesday, a Russian gas tanker was attacked by Ukrainian sea drones in the Mediterranean and caught fire. Honestly, the outlook for Europe, especially the eurozone, looks catastrophic, which is not yet fully reflected in prices. But it will be, sooner or later. That's why I'm only playing short-term long scalps in EURUSD; otherwise, the trend remains clearly downward.
It's been rising for almost 24 hours, so for now, yes, the EUR is gaining value, that's a fact. Now the question is whether this is a temporary correction or the beginning of a new trend (personally, I'm leaning towards the former).
  • #223,339
  • Mar 4, 2026 5:57am Mar 4, 2026 5:57am
Quoting Lhelene
{quote} It's been rising for almost 24 hours, so for now, yes, the EUR is gaining value, that's a fact. Now the question is whether this is a temporary correction or the beginning of a new trend (personally, I'm leaning towards the former).
I hope for a new trend to protect my small but precious long from 1.1535. Could you take a power nap and tell me what your dreams are telling you?
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #223,340
  • Mar 4, 2026 6:02am Mar 4, 2026 6:02am
Quoting jonasdao
{quote} I hope for a new trend to protect my small but precious long from 1.1535. Could you take a power nap and tell me what your dreams are telling you?
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