EURUSD only

The EUR/USD pair fell due to increased demand for safe-haven assets like the USD, considered a safe-haven currency. The Middle East conflict has led to rising energy prices in Europe, leading to short-term inflation. The euro may remain under pressure.

pic quality is bad
Trade direction not clear. Buy or sell?

The EURUSD price, while moving downward, reached my previously identified target—the support level of 1.1578—after a false breakout. I'm considering buying from this level, targeting the resistance level of 1.1682.

EUR/USD is starting to drive me crazy. I dreamt last night that the price was going to stabilize, I wake up and see the price is at the same level as when I fell asleep. (I'm going to start sleeping more.)

There is nothing certain in these conditions. The low of the week has reacted off a single 1H POI and is not a strong HTF support to see price make a permanent bullish move. The trick here will be to identify where the bearish pivot will be that will take the low and continue bearish.

1D
With the 4H bullish range broken we step up to the next higher TF - the 1D. A bullish range still holds with a single bullish POI (1.14903) the last stand holding price up. There is no bearish POI in this range until structure validated one.

1H
The low of the week is a respected bullish 1H POI at 1.15426. This shows the order flow is still being respected at this timeframe. The next bearish POI (1.16290) could see price react bearish and see price take the low to mitigate the 1D bullish POI (1.14903). There are multiple bearish POI's indicated as a red candle that could be the bearish pivot so a confirmation with volume is the only way to determine where to enter short. To validate the bearish range price needs to reach 1.16825. This would align with the bearish 4H POI at 1.16716.

Now that things have calmed down a bit, albeit with caution, the move could continue in this direction. If EURUSD can stabilize around the 1.16 area (H1), I see good chances that it could start moving higher from here. For that to happen, it must not drop below 1.1590 in the coming hours and days; otherwise, the short-term downtrend that began earlier this week could extend further.

In the bigger picture (D1), however, it is still in a broader downtrend, with the upper boundary currently coming in around 1.1670–80. Given the volatility of the past few days, I wouldn’t rule out a quick spike toward that level. If it even manages to break above 1.1680, the longer-term downtrend could be challenged. Whether that would be sustainable remains to be seen.

In any case, I’m playing it long short-term, targeting at least the 1.1660–80 area.

Good morning guys.

Kind of crazy PA on EURUSD


Price has done the move I was expecting. It used the Buy Side Liquidity formed through the bearish Order Flow. I doubt now that it will come back just to give me a setup, that is not profitable for the market, that is not what the market wants, and I won’t try to convince myself that it will. The only thing left for me to do, is to let it unfold as it wants to.

I hope we see something interesting in the days to come.

i have no idea what will happen, but it left some big gaps behind so it's not that unreasonable

You know what it's crazy? The conditions of the pair right now

So much complications with the analysis, its crystal clear bearish market.

Quick D1 Outlook

1. From this day on forwards I am now inclined to look for long opportunities inside the yellow zone...
2. I will try to buy as low as I can, whenever I see a dip towards or slightly below ~1.1576 area (with momentum, dips to 1.1540 are still possible)!
3. My first bull target would be a revisit to 1.1666 area, as some of you may guess why...

Happy trading day folks

EURUSD is acting pretty normal right now, nothing strange about the price action. It began a bear move on Monday and is now consolidating.

Looks like another wasted morning for me, still cant find a trade worth taking
Praying tomorrow I can get my first trade of the week on EU going!

Good luck to the rest of you

Why I think the euro could move higher again:

1. Trump has a strong political incentive to keep oil prices low ahead of the midterm elections. Yesterday he also offered escort protection and insurance for oil tankers, which could help stabilize oil supply and reduce risk premiums in the energy market.

2. According to reports, the Assembly of Experts in Tehran may already have selected a successor – possibly Khamenei’s son Mojtaba. If this turns out to be correct, it could at least indicate some stabilization of the power structure and reduce the risk of chaotic internal struggles (including erratic attacks on oil tankers).

3. The involvement of the United States will likely contribute to a further increase in U.S. government debt.

4. In addition, I could imagine further fiscal programs from the U.S. government ahead of the elections, which would push the deficit even higher.

5. From a chart perspective, the euro at least seems to have stabilized somewhat.

Taken together, I will probably try longs rather than shorts today. However, ADP employment data is due at 14:15 CET, so I’ll wait for the numbers first. If we get a miss, I’ll try to catch the potential rocket.

Of course this is very speculative right now, and any further escalation in the energy situation could quickly flip the whole picture again.

Good luck to everyone.

big jump upside, what happened?

Kind of unexpected.

But I'll take the gift.
I just hope this isn't count as a news trade on my funded account, there were no news at this time on FF

That's why the spike: Iran operatives made offer to discuss terms for ending war: New York Times!

Will never happen with current regime therefore fake!