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Ichimoku and price action

  • #321
  • Feb 26, 2026 5:06am Feb 26, 2026 5:06am
Quoting Raden Winata
{quote} Are you basing your trades on when all timeframes align, or do you prioritize one specific timeframe as the main direction?
I mainly trade obvious price extremes on timeframes ranging from M1 to M5.

I never look for trend alignment across timeframes, it’s useless for this specific trading style.

However, I always keep an eye on the slope of the SMA 100 and the layering of the Guppy X 5 (specifically the green ones on my charts). If I am trading in total counter-trend to the SMA 100 and Guppy X 5, my TP will be very fast. I’ve had enough bad experiences aiming for targets too far away, especially with an asset as powerful as the Dax: it gives points quickly, but takes them back even faster.
Dax only.
  • #322
  • Feb 26, 2026 5:36am Feb 26, 2026 5:36am
Quoting Tyross
{quote} I mainly trade obvious price extremes on timeframes ranging from M1 to M5. I never look for trend alignment across timeframes, it’s useless for this specific trading style. However, I always keep an eye on the slope of the SMA 100 and the layering of the Guppy X 5 (specifically the green ones on my charts). If I am trading in total counter-trend to the SMA 100 and Guppy X 5, my TP will be very fast. I’ve had enough bad experiences aiming for targets too far away, especially with an asset as powerful as the Dax: it gives points quickly, but...
That’s a very disciplined approach.
Focusing on clear price extremes and adapting TP when trading counter-trend shows strong risk awareness. Especially with something as volatile as DAX, being quick and realistic with targets is a smart move.
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  • #323
  • Edited 9:11am Feb 26, 2026 7:43am | Edited 9:11am
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post15565571

Kumo Anomaly on M15...

This is a period of uncertainty where we could face strong headwinds if the price decides to drop to correct the anomaly.

It’s a risk that shouldn’t be overlooked. We’ll see.

Edit: same configuration on H2...

Edit: I preferred to do nothing. (no commission on indices with my broker) . We'll see tomorrow.
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Dax only.
  • #324
  • Edited 11:00am Feb 26, 2026 10:46am | Edited 11:00am
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15560009

A fine example of the SMA 100 (yellow) with a very resilient upward slope.

If you look at where the candles were 100 periods ago during this afternoon ( just before the vertical line) , they were far below the current price.

There was a sharp downward move, but it went against the strong trend of the SMA 100 and the Green Guppy.

The price exhausted itself trying to reach that slope reversal threshold (to put it one way), without sustainably threatening the SMA's trajectory.

This type of situation very often leads to a powerful reversal, as seen here. Of course, a support level on a higher timeframe is required to trigger the bounce—which was the case here.

==> How to trade this type of setup? It will be explained in the next post.
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Dax only.
  • #325
  • Feb 26, 2026 1:51pm Feb 26, 2026 1:51pm
Quoting Tyross
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15560009 A fine example of the SMA 100 (yellow) with a very resilient upward slope. If you look at where the candles were 100 periods ago during this afternoon ( just before the vertical line) , they were far below the current price. There was a sharp downward move, but it went against the strong trend of the SMA 100 and the Green Guppy. The price exhausted itself trying to reach that slope reversal threshold (to put it one way), without sustainably threatening the SMA's trajectory....
How to trade this type of setup ?

In this type of setup—meaning a 'solid' SMA 100 slope and bullish green GMMAs—we have the advantage of the trend on our side.

However, we don't know exactly when the price will reverse after its drop. Support levels are zones that lower time frames often overshoot before turning around (these create the rejection wicks seen on higher time frames). Managing single-entry position and stop losse is very tricky on very-low time frames. This is why a multi-positions approach is used to spread a buy position across a wider area.

Personally, I always wait for the price to reach the SMA 100 before I start entering a position. Then, I continue my buys progressively. The goal is to bring the average net price of the overall position as close as possible to the future reversal point. You have to be careful; price can continue its path for a long time, so don't 'spam' the mouse to place orders (this requires some experience).

The essential part is the analysis of the situation: do we have the edge on our side (the trend, a solid SMA, well-spaced green GMMAs, a reaction zone identified on a higher time frame), or are we just winging it and relying on luck?

One important point: a very powerful price move, like the one on this chart, consumes a lot of energy. Imagine each candle as an accelerator pedal: the harder you floor it, the faster you go, but your fuel tank empties quickly. If the price drifts down toward the SMA 100 slowly and calmly, it’s a dangerous situation: instead of a sharp reversal, it might enter a range or oscillate for a long time without truly bouncing back.

Dax only.
  • #326
  • Feb 27, 2026 2:21am Feb 27, 2026 2:21am
229 points - 15 minutes of trading.
(Daily goal: 200 points per day).

DAX

How does the indicator account for the trading session?

The 'points gained' indicator measures the distance covered by each individual position and adds them all together. A 1-lot position that moves 20 points: the indicator displays 20 points. A 2-lot position that moves 20 points: it’s the same, the indicator displays 20 points. Position size does not affect the count; only the distance traveled matters.
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Dax only.
  • #327
  • Feb 27, 2026 2:43am Feb 27, 2026 2:43am
Quoting Tyross
229 points - 15 minutes of trading. (Daily goal: 200 points per day). DAX How does the indicator account for the trading session? The 'points gained' indicator measures the distance covered by each individual position and adds them all together. A 1-lot position that moves 20 points: the indicator displays 20 points. A 2-lot position that moves 20 points: it’s the same, the indicator displays 20 points. Position size does not affect the count; only the distance traveled matters. {image}

Impressive result — 229 points in 15 minutes is solid work
I also like how the indicator focuses purely on distance traveled, not lot size. That keeps the performance measurement objective and clean. Very well structured approach.
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  • #328
  • Feb 27, 2026 3:44am Feb 27, 2026 3:44am
That’s it for me; I’m calling it a day. I don’t like Fridays, especially the afternoon (it’s currently 10:34 AM in France).

On Ichimoku, we couldn’t find any resistance levels to sell, so drawing a few lines on the swing highs makes it much easier to navigate.

I know Ichimoku isn’t everyone's cup of tea, and I can understand why. However, I sold earlier because we were under resistance, and on the M15 Ichimoku chart (the one I posted), the Tenkan isn't visible—only the Kijun in blue—and the price is far above it. I mentioned this earlier this week: this is how Ichimoku warns us that the price is overextended, meaning the probabilities for a sell trade are much higher.


Edit: M15...
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Dax only.
  • #329
  • Feb 27, 2026 3:55am Feb 27, 2026 3:55am
(no commission on indices with my broker)

Last week : 2505 points, almost the same as this week (2588 points).
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Dax only.
  • #330
  • Feb 27, 2026 4:20am Feb 27, 2026 4:20am
I hope these posts are actually helpful. My goal is to demonstrate a multi-position, under-leveraged trading approach, without being reckless.

It’s about analyzing the DAX very carefully across multiple timeframes and combining trading systems that complement each other.

I’m not shooting for the moon with my take profits; instead, I keep in mind that short-term trading opportunities are plenty. You take your profits and wait for the next setup.

I probably won’t post this much in the future—I’ll likely get tired of it—but at least the essentials are there.

If I had only one piece of advice: watch the higher timeframes and identify your reaction levels.

Pay attention to the assets you trade, as they don't all behave the same way. An overnight position on the DAX isn't usually a big deal because it's thinly traded during the Asian session (you get gaps, but they’re manageable). That’s not the case for Forex, cryptos, or commodities, where overnights are dangerous and price swings can be massive.

Dax only.
  • #331
  • Feb 27, 2026 8:39am Feb 27, 2026 8:39am
Quoting Raden Winata
{quote} Impressive result — 229 points in 15 minutes is solid work I also like how the indicator focuses purely on distance traveled, not lot size. That keeps the performance measurement objective and clean. Very well structured approach.
Thanks, Raden Winata.

There’s nothing too complicated about it: a clear price overshoot, reaction levels, and a global context to understand the price environment (uptrend, downtrend, range). Honestly, it’s very accessible.

Regarding the point count, I had the indicator coded to only track distance—it’s more realistic that way.
Dax only.
  • #332
  • Feb 27, 2026 3:53pm Feb 27, 2026 3:53pm
Quoting Tyross
That’s it for me; I’m calling it a day. I don’t like Fridays, especially the afternoon (it’s currently 10:34 AM in France). On Ichimoku, we couldn’t find any resistance levels to sell, so drawing a few lines on the swing highs makes it much easier to navigate. I know Ichimoku isn’t everyone's cup of tea, and I can understand why. However, I sold earlier because we were under resistance, and on the M15 Ichimoku chart (the one I posted), the Tenkan isn't visible—only the Kijun in blue—and the price is far above it. I mentioned this earlier this week:...
Salut,
trades around 9:15 are clear for me, because they follow your method whereas your trades after 10AM are less obvious because they don't follow your sma 100 slope rule.
Am I to understand that there are two configurations in your method? one with the sma 100 slope, the other one without ? **
thanks!
  • #333
  • Feb 27, 2026 4:05pm Feb 27, 2026 4:05pm
Quoting dktaktik
{quote} Salut, trades around 9:15 are clear for me, because they follow your method whereas your trades after 10AM are less obvious because they don't follow your sma 100 slope rule. Am I to understand that there are two configurations in your method? one with the sma 100 slope, the other one without ? ** thanks!
Yes, that's it. I use the SMA slope to secure very short-term trading scenarios. But some situations are easy to trade, so I don't need this SMA.
Dax only.
  • #334
  • Feb 28, 2026 3:21am Feb 28, 2026 3:21am
merci !

Another question. There are bound to be times when things go wrong. When do you cut your positions in that case?

Do you think this method could be apply to CAC40 ?

thks
  • #335
  • Feb 28, 2026 4:30am Feb 28, 2026 4:30am
The Ichimoku tips that served me well this week: Kumo Anomaly and Price Excess. They are very easy to spot, reliable, and you don’t need to be an Ichimoku specialist to use them.

Kumo Anomaly ===> post 323

Price Excess ===> post 320 - 328
Dax only.
  • #336
  • Edited 12:25pm Feb 28, 2026 11:45am | Edited 12:25pm
Quoting dktaktik
merci ! Another question. There are bound to be times when things go wrong. When do you cut your positions in that case? Do you think this method could be apply to CAC40 ? thks
Great questions !

You’re right; sometimes things go wrong. It’s what we call a 'flow.' A flow is a movement that seems inexhaustible; it breaks through reaction levels practically without stalling. The Dax can have intraday flows that last more than two hours... a total straight line.

The first thing to do is accept that it is a flow—it’s very easy to spot. The Dax is going to go look for a major H4 liquidity level or a Daily level. There is no point in adding positions every 10 points. We let the position go against us without adding anything, and we will step in at a major level once the price starts to react. At that point, you’ll need to enter several positions at once to 'bring' the average net price closer to the current market price.

The right benchmark: you need to bring the average net price price to between the 38% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels of the flow movement. 50% is the maximum.

Note that I am talking specifically about index behavior here, as Forex, cryptos, and commodities all have their own specific behaviors.

There’s no need to cut everything; however, you can close a few very poorly placed positions and re-enter them at the major level.

What matters above all: stay under-leveraged at all times, and everything will be fine, because the Dax always compensates for its excesses (indices generally do).

The CAC 40 is very slow, but it’s possible. I tried it for a bit, but I was bored...

Dax only.
  • #337
  • Feb 28, 2026 1:47pm Feb 28, 2026 1:47pm
Quoting Tyross
{quote} Great questions ! You’re right; sometimes things go wrong. It’s what we call a 'flow.' A flow is a movement that seems inexhaustible; it breaks through reaction levels practically without stalling. The Dax can have intraday flows that last more than two hours... a total straight line. The first thing to do is accept that it is a flow—it’s very easy to spot. The Dax is going to go look for a major H4 liquidity level or a Daily level. There is no point in adding positions every 10 points. We let the position go against us without adding...
I forgot to mention: during a " flow ", you will see a Kumo Anomaly on Ichimoku and sometimes a Price Excess on Ichimoku as well (see post 1). If you spot one of these patterns on a timeframe of M15 or higher, expect a major correction once a higher timeframe reaction level (H4 and up) is hit.

This helps you stay calm when facing floating drawdowns.

Dax only.
  • #338
  • Mar 1, 2026 3:04am Mar 1, 2026 3:04am
The often-overlooked concept of the Ichimoku Cloud
In the standard Ichimoku indicator built into MT4/5, the Ichimoku Cloud is a real-time Ichimoku Cloud with a shift of the Kijun Sen.

Image of Ichimoku Cloud Shift 26
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Image of Ichimoku Cloud Shift 0
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Image of Ichimoku Cloud Shift 0 & 26
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The use of any indicator must be adjusted to your perception of the indicator on the chart.
The same applies to the use of the Ichimoku Cloud.
Develop your core instincts based on the perceptions you perceive on the chart

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex5 Ichimoku_Cloud5a_Chart_shift.ex5   22 KB | 70 downloads


You can try to compare Ichimoku Cloud Shift with this MT5 indicator
  • #339
  • Mar 1, 2026 4:35am Mar 1, 2026 4:35am
Quoting Darwati
The often-overlooked concept of the Ichimoku Cloud In the standard Ichimoku indicator built into MT4/5, the Ichimoku Cloud is a real-time Ichimoku Cloud with a shift of the Kijun Sen. Image of Ichimoku Cloud Shift 26 {image} Image of Ichimoku Cloud Shift 0 {image} Image of Ichimoku Cloud Shift 0 & 26 {image} The use of any indicator must be adjusted to your perception of the indicator on the chart. The same applies to the use of the Ichimoku Cloud. Develop your core instincts based on the perceptions you perceive on the chart {file} You can try...
Hi Darwati. Everyone needs to find the right tools for their own trading style, that’s for sure—even if it means making a few adjustments. Readers can test your indicator and decide for themselves if it helps them.

That being said, the Ichimoku trading tips I’ve shared in this thread are based on standard settings and use all the Ichimoku components.

With that in mind, everyone is free to do as they please.

Dax only.
  • #340
  • Mar 1, 2026 5:19am Mar 1, 2026 5:19am
MT4 Version ;-)
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Ichimoku_Global_Shift.ex4   15 KB | 73 downloads

Hi Darwati, that insight has made a big difference eyeballing some chart. Thank you.
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