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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo analysis and the "one glance on a single chart"

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited 10:59am Jun 5, 2010 3:22am | Edited 10:59am
  •  diavolul
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Full time trader | 752 Posts
Short introduction


Eighty years ago, Hosoda Goichi, a Japanese journalist, begins to develop a technique for analyzing the market and, after about thirty-eight years of training, in 1968 reveals a system that translated literally means: "one glance equilibrium chart", which the Western world would be known only in the 90s.
What makes it unique in the world of abundant in oscillators, is that his performance shows a more accurate vision of what is happening on chart, so setups that have high probability of development, on short, medium and long term, is clearly distinguishable from those with a very small probability.


Structure


Based on pure price-action , Ichimoku is calculated in a similar fashion with Moving Average, represents a more advanced graphics by the five studies) with it contains and which I will take turns and I will present as follows (Default configuration: 9, 26, 52) :

Tenkan-sen and the turning line

Is computed using the formula: (the highest peak (high) + The lower base (bottom) )/ 2 - for the last nine periods.

Kijun-sen or standard line

Is computed using the formula: (The highest peak (high) + The lower base (bottom)) / 2 - for the last 26 periods.

Chikou Span or the lagging line

Is calculated as: current closing price projected back in the past 26 periods

Senkou Span A or first leading line

It is calculated by the formula: (Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen)/2 projected on 26 periods in the future.

Senkou Span B or the second leading line

It is calculated by the formula: (The highest peak (high) + The lower the (Bottom)) / 2 - for the last 52 times, projected 26 periods in the future.

The notion of Kumo (cloud) is represented by two indicators Senkou Senkou Span A and Span B, united in a "band" with a fill effect, while other indicators: Tenkan-sen-sen and Chikou Kijun Spain are represented by individual separated lines.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Features


As a tool for more exotic analyses, it could show your current momentum, the general trend, speed of trend, dynamic supports and resistances, it's strength and eventually a very accurate market forecast.


Momentum:


Is dictated by two instruments: Tenkan and Kijun-sen-sen. Their position, one above the other, we can determine with precision movement "present" the market. So Kijun-sen with a less value than Tenkan-sen is telling us momentum down, as shown:

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Market's sentiment:


Kumo is dictated by two instruments: Senkou Span A and Span B Senkou position, one above the other can give us valuable information about the general tone of the market, the possible vulnerabilities in a trend or correction or of sudden change in trend. It become bearish when Senkou Span A crosses bellow the Senkou Span B, as you observe that is a high probability changing in trend's direction, although nothing is announcing that the possible decline.
Kumo's may report and delimitation of the range, flat tops or flat bottoms (a highly resistances and support zones), almost horizontal lines drawn by Spain's Senkou or Senkou Span B.

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The general trend:


By definition, the general trend is dictated by the position of the bar price / lamp current with respect to Kumo. A positioning of the price above the Kumo
it shows an up general trend. General trend is given and the position Chikou's Span (colored in violet), as the delay is the way it is designed so you can better determine the break-out sites in the crucial moment when it is closed under/over Kumo.


Trend's power (or its severity):


Kumo's thickness gives us, most of the times, valuable clues about the current movement, if we are in a correction or, on the contrary, in a impulse. If it is in equilibrium or balance.
On impulsive moves have a very narrow band and on the correct ones is narrow or even flat.


Dynamic supports and resistances:


Ichimoku has the advantage of showing the possible future dynamic support and resistance, which can be used both as targets and stop-loss as mobile and so. Here's how both Tenkai-sen-sen Kijun and Senkou Span A and Span B Senkou played a role in shaping future decisive support / resistance.

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Trend forecast:



Kumo, which is projected in the future, give us clues about which direction the price is likely to develop. Here, below, progressively, as did the price:

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  • Post #2
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  • Edited 4:48am Jun 5, 2010 3:49am | Edited 4:48am
  •  diavolul
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Full time trader | 752 Posts
Short past analysis:

Note that this pair, since the end of the 7th febr. 2010, passed into a "bearish momentum" given by the intersection of Tenkan-sen (blue color) and Kijun-sen (red color). Few weeks the Tenkan-sen played an important role of dynamic resistance and support, as the price breaks the 0.7124 level (1), the Tenkan-sen falls and make a great valid support for a little up move (2). Then, the price falls violently breaking the Tenkan-sen support and which with Kijun-sen and Senkou Span A (the upper line of the Kumo) make a cluster resistance. The remaining cluster formed by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen it is valid even today(4).

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Present day analysis:

Sentiment: Bullish ( Senkou Span A> Senkou Span B => Bullish Kumo)
Momentum: Bearish (Kijun-sen>Tenkan-sen)
General trend: Neutral to a slightly bearish estate (The Chikou Span crossed the two Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the price it is inside Kumo)
Power of trend: Weak (The broad shape of current Kumo band)
Dynamic supports and resistances: in the superior side: 0.6941 (Tenkan-sen) 0.7000 (Kijun-sen) 0.7106 (Senkou Span A) and in the inferior side: 0.6262 (Flat bottom of Senkou Span B)
Forecast: Bullish (the presence of the Future Bullish Kumo)
 
 
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:47am Jun 5, 2010 4:15am | Edited 4:47am
  •  diavolul
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Full time trader | 752 Posts
Short, past analysis:

EUR/USD, from 31 January 2010, turned from bullish momentum into bearish given by the cross-over of the Kijun-sen above Tenkan-sen, in the same time when the price had a little trouble with the 1.3474-1.3400 prce zone (Senkou Span B and A from that time). The sentiment shifted from bearish to bullish on the same period. It followed a narrow range with resistance in the presence of Senkou Span A(1) and support (Senkou Span B)(2). After that the price finds a new resistance in Tenkan-sen(3) and finally falls through the Senkou Span A(4).
The Senkou Span hocked up with Tenkan-sen make a cluster zone of resistance once again (5) which cannot be passed in the up direction, even the market it's still in bullish sentiment. In the following weeks the price is just melting down followed very close by Tenkan-sen, which remains it's only resistance and support, even in current week (6).

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Present day analysis:

Sentiment: Bullish ( Senkou Span A> Senkou Span B => Bullish Kumo)
Momentum: Bearish (Kijun-sen>Tenkan-sen)
General trend: Bearish (Both Chinkou Span and price broke the clouds and the other resistances of the other Ichimoku studies)
Power of trend: Weak (The broad shape of current Kumo band)
Dynamic supports and resistances: in the superior side: 1.2822 (Tenkan-sen) 1.3429 (Kijun-sen) 1.3800 (flat top on Senkou Span B) and 1.4656 (Senkou Span A)
Forecast: Bearish (the presence of the Future Bearish Kumo)
 
 
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2010 10:56am Jun 5, 2010 10:56am
  •  diavolul
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Full time trader | 752 Posts
Brief past price action analysis:

This pair started to try to change it's bias initially, in persistent ways, from 13.12.2009 when it first started to test the important resistance of Kijun-sen (1) after failed five times, during a one an a half month, resistance which became a great support for the continuation of the initial up move, on first deeper correction (2). The price breaks the cluster of the Senkou Span A and Tenkan-sen after finishing that correction (3) at 1.07-1.08 zone. After that the price just climbed with very good support from the Tenkan-sen (blue line) and breaks the 1.1164 (Senkou Span B) (4).

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Current price action analysis:

Sentiment: Bearish (Senkou Span B> Senkou Span A => Bearish Kumo)
Momentum: Bullish (Tenkan-sen>Kijun-sen)
General trend: Bullish (Both Chinkou Span and price broke the upper limit of the cloud)
Power of trend: Weak (The broad shape of current Kumo band)
Dynamic supports and resistances: 1.1115 (Tenkan-sen) 1.1055 (Senkou Span B) 1.0930 (Kijun-sen) and 1.0299 (Senkou Span A)
Forecast: Bullish (the presence of the Future Bullish Kumo)
 
 
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Edited 1:21am Jun 10, 2010 1:19am | Edited 1:21am
  •  diavolul
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Full time trader | 752 Posts
Brief past price action analysis:

This pair changed it's bias, by turning its momentum into bearish (1), closing at the 0.8169 the specified candlestick. Yet, even the price had been under the Kumo, the sentiment showed the vulnerability of the bearish initial move and the rejected from the 0.8100 zone (0.8080) to almost 0.8400 (0.8392). Broke the 0.8178 (dynamic resistance of Tenkan-sen) (2) and then finds its support on it for the continuation of the up move (3). Broke the Senkou Span B too, two times, the second time confirms it, by making a higher high. (4) The last dynamic resistance (Senkou Span A) it's still in play (5)

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Current price action analysis:

Sentiment: Bullish (Senkou Span A > Senkou Span B)
Momentum: Bullish (Tenkan-sen > Kijun-sen)
General trend: Neutral (The position of Chinkou Span and of the price into the Kumo)
Power of trend: Weak (The thickness of the Kumo strip)
Dynamic supports and resistances: 0.8403 (Senkou Span A), 0.8307 (Senkou Span B), 0.8293 (Tenkan-sen) and 0.8277 (Kijun-sen)
Forecast: Bearish (Future Kumo is Bearish - Senkou Span B > Senkou Span A)
 
 
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Jun 11, 2010 5:02am Jun 11, 2010 5:02am
  •  diavolul
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Full time trader | 752 Posts
Brief past price action analysis:

After crossing the bearish momentum shifted to bullish (1), the price showed a slight resistance in the path of dynamic resistance generated by Senkou Span A (2) but it has surpassed it in the end. If it is valid or not remains to watch. Valid would mean that the price down to make a correction, to be based on one of Ichimoku studies. If, however, will overcome, will be considered a fake and will be most likely a top-to medium term (given that continuity of movement is backed down and will see more reject price zones headed to the down direction).

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Name: audusd_4h.PNG
Size: 45 KB


Current analysis:

Sentiment: Bearish (Senkou Span B> Senkou Spain)
Momentum: Bullish (Tenkan-sen> Kijun-sen)
General Trend: Bullish (position Chinkou Spain and Kumo's price above)
Trend's strength: Strong (narrowness of Kumo)
Dynamic supports and resistances: 0.8390 (Tenkan-sen), 0.8320 (Senkou Span B) and the cluster of Senkou Span A and Kijun-sen respectively to 0.8296 and 0.8294.
Forecast: Bullish (Future Kumo is Bullish - Senkou Spain> Senkou Span B)
 
 
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Jun 11, 2010 10:10am Jun 11, 2010 10:10am
  •  diavolul
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Full time trader | 752 Posts
I have a question for MQL4 programmers from this site. How hard do you think is to do an EA, putting some conditions of entry and exit from in the transaction, just like those made by me in my analysis? All opinions and ideas, or suggestions how this could be done is welcome. If needed, I'll give more details about how I want to make those conditions.

Thanks in advance, folks.
 
 
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Jun 17, 2010 12:07am Jun 17, 2010 12:07am
  •  diavolul
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Full time trader | 752 Posts
Brief past price action analysis:

Price on this pair of respected Bullish scenario, returning to Tenkan-sen and, though passed, was only a fake on it, unable to make their support for a possible move down and made a new maximum at 0.8672.

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Name: audusd_4h_ichimoku.PNG
Size: 42 KB


Current analysis:

Sentiment: Bullish (Senkou Spain> Senkou Span B)
Momentum: Bullish (Tenkan-sen> Kijun-sen)
General Trend: Bullish (position Chinkou Spain and Kumo's price above)
Trend's strength: Currently - Strong (narrowness Kumo's) but Decreasing (it thickness of future Kumo)
Dynamic supports and resistances: 0.8626 (Tenkan-sen), 0.8548 (Kijun-sen), 0.8331 (Senkou Span A) and 0.8300 (Senkou Span B)
Forecast: Bullish (Future Kumo is bullish Senkou Span A> Senkou Span B)

Possible evolution of prices:
(1 to 3 days)

I built, mostly, a bearish scenario corrective-impulsive, depending what kind of bias will ultimately adopt. So far, we have no strong signal to allow us to make one precise scenario. Because it is possible to already on a top, I considered the bearish scenario. Thus, bearish scenario was built around the idea that Tenkan Kijun-sen will play a pivot role for the eventual descent idea, the price will make suport and resistance on Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen. For start, the price is likely to depend on Tenkan-sen and make supports on its falling, as you know Kijun-sen line is also called lagging and fall down more slowly. Then, as the price has come down a bit, I took the idea that both will make a good pivot cluster, and only then, we can see more clearly where is more likely to go
And if it doesn't pass it, the daily up correction is finnished. Basically I've started the idea that price will stop moving down in flat bottom area, where prices will be corrected for 50.0 and untill then this possible falling is only a correction. And then we'll see further developments and update the prediction and so on.

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  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Jun 17, 2010 12:38am Jun 17, 2010 12:38am
  •  iqyusan
  • | Additional Username | Joined Jun 2009 | 339 Posts
Nice forum bro ....

I try combined it when using scfm method. So far ... it works. It gives strong confirmation for a trend in scfm also. I think u know what scfm, coz i ever read your nick there

Keep it continue bro. That's very good, especially for newbies like me .....

Warm Regards
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:18am Jun 17, 2010 7:18am
  •  Sixer
  • Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Member | 1,757 Posts
fyi, there is thread with more than 13000 postings with regard to "Ichimoku" in this forum already:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=190646

Sixer
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:43am Jun 17, 2010 8:43am
  •  diavolul
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Full time trader | 752 Posts
Quoting Sixer
Disliked
fyi, there is thread with more than 13000 postings with regard to "Ichimoku" in this forum already:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=190646

Sixer
Ignored
I am aware of that, this is a very different approach. Analysis of this type you can't find on the Internet. Only few inconsistent articles about sentiment and that's all. Regarding the topic you have showed it, I think it's not treated very well and it's incomplete too. Also, nobody is thinking about forecasting and this is a big issue. Not from the perspective of anticipating anything but to expected the unexpected, if you know what I mean by that.

Thank you for your opinion. I expect you with posts related to this topic if you enjoy it, of course.
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:43am Jun 17, 2010 9:43am
  •  PayTheLimit
  • Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Ride the Pig | 31,178 Posts
Very detailed analysis, impressive. How accurate is this method on shorter time frames?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Jun 17, 2010 12:20pm Jun 17, 2010 12:20pm
  •  diavolul
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Full time trader | 752 Posts
Quoting PayTheLimit
Disliked
Very detailed analysis, impressive. How accurate is this method on shorter time frames?
Ignored
This is only an analysis, so far. I am thinking how could I implement a strategy related to Ichimoku Kinko Hyo oscillator but it is only on paper, for now.
This type of analysis, can make you see shifts in big players mood and a very dinamic point of view, but require a very complex thinking, that's why so much traders avoid it.
I will try to make a chart analysis on smaller time-frame, maybe on 15 minutes in the incoming days. Even I said it is not a method yet, if you follow the signals you can entry where it's almost all of them are pointing sharply to one direction or another. The big problem comes when you are exiting the trade and how you manage the risk and so on.
The scenarios is based on pure assumtions from the positioning of the oscillator's studies, it's not rocket science or very accurate. The experience using this oscillator it polishes your eye day by day.
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Edited 8:49am Oct 10, 2010 6:12am | Edited 8:49am
  •  diavolul
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Full time trader | 752 Posts
Brief past price action analysis:

On the 9th September the pair breaks decisively the Flat Top (Senkou Span B) and since then climbed sharply to historical values. All this time only correction he had was only to dynamic support of Tenkan-sen.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: audusd(d)(1)101010.PNG
Size: 38 KB


Current analysis:

Sentiment: Bearish (Senkou Span B> Senkou Span A)
Momentum: Bullish (Tenkan-sen> Kijun-sen)
General Trend: Bullish (positioning of the Chinkou Spain and price above the Kumo)
Trend's strength: Currently - Decreasing (wideness of the future Kumo)
Dynamic supports and resistances
Attached Image


Forecast: Bullish (Future Kumo is Bullish)

Probability for up move: 75%
Probability for down move: 25%*


*-The probability for up or down move is given by the Sentiment, Momentum, General trend and Forecast.
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Oct 13, 2010 11:46pm Oct 13, 2010 11:46pm
  •  uomo
  • | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Junior Member | 2 Posts
Very good Ichimoku thread. Thanks for putting this system here.
I got one thing yet to really know,After reading several Ichimoku threads here and other threads, about ChiKou Span.

How do we put this ChikouSpan in perspective reading of this Ichimoku system. Could you and anyone expert on this do comment, please.tq

Cheers!
 
 
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Edited Oct 19, 2010 12:28am Oct 18, 2010 4:08pm | Edited Oct 19, 2010 12:28am
  •  diavolul
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Full time trader | 752 Posts
Quoting uomo
Disliked
Very good Ichimoku thread. Thanks for putting this system here.
I got one thing yet to really know,After reading several Ichimoku threads here and other threads, about ChiKou Span.

How do we put this ChikouSpan in perspective reading of this Ichimoku system. Could you and anyone expert on this do comment, please.tq

Cheers!
Ignored
I use Chikou Span combined with the price itself.
I will explain you one bullish situation, as I call it General trend: Bullish = is it when Chikou Span is crossing the cloud in the up direction and the price is making the same thing on its sector.
The vice versa is bearish configuration. Any mixture of these signals would give a neutral state (example: lets say Chikou span is inside the cloud and the price is over/under the cloud) or any other variations.
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Oct 24, 2010 6:28am Oct 24, 2010 6:28am
  •  diavolul
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Full time trader | 752 Posts
Quoting uomo
Disliked
Very good Ichimoku thread. Thanks for putting this system here.
I got one thing yet to really know,After reading several Ichimoku threads here and other threads, about ChiKou Span.

How do we put this ChikouSpan in perspective reading of this Ichimoku system. Could you and anyone expert on this do comment, please.tq

Cheers!
Ignored
PS. This is not a system, it is only for orientation, at least for now. You can see how the sentiment and all the studies shifting gear on the reversal especially. To support this comment, I will post a relevant image of GBP/JPY (4h chart) for those who taught that the pair it was in the correction on that date.

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Name: gbpjpy(4)(1)241010.PNG
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If I will develop something related to Ichimoku in the future, I will certainly post it here.
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Oct 24, 2010 6:47am Oct 24, 2010 6:47am
  •  diavolul
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Full time trader | 752 Posts
Brief past price action analysis:

The pair tried to break below the Kijun-sen for four time, so far, but it seemed that there exist a great support.

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Current analysis:

Sentiment: Bullish (Senkou Span A> Senkou Span B)
Momentum: Bullish (Tenkan-sen> Kijun-sen)
General Trend: Bullish (positioning of the both Chinkou Spain and price above the Kumo)
Trend's strength: Decreasing (wideness of the future Kumo)
Dynamic supports and resistances:
Attached Image


Forecast: Bullish (Future Kumo is Bullish)

Probability for up move: 100%
Probability for down move: 0%*

*-The probability for up or down move is given by the Sentiment, Momentum, General trend and Forecast.
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Oct 25, 2010 9:57am Oct 25, 2010 9:57am
  •  uomo
  • | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Junior Member | 2 Posts
Quoting diavolul
Disliked
I use Chikou Span combined with the price itself.
I will explain you one bullish situation, as I call it General trend: Bullish = is it when Chikou Span is crossing the cloud in the up direction and the price is making the same thing on its sector.
The vice versa is bearish configuration. Any mixture of these signals would give a neutral state (example: lets say Chikou span is inside the cloud and the price is over/under the cloud) or any other variations.
Ignored
Thank you for the reply in this post and the next one (cant find multiquotes button here,sorry).

As i now understand,the Chikou Span and the Current Price, must both
clear pass above the cloud (in uptrend).
Can I know also, Is this our 1st entry condition for trading Ichimoku?

Is there any other trade setups, which trader should also consider for a trade entry? And when should a trade exit(when there's meat for the table.)

Well that's a lot, Im sorry if Im too much full of questions.

Thanks Again,May God bless You with trading Success!

Uomo
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Oct 25, 2010 10:15pm Oct 25, 2010 10:15pm
  •  diavolul
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Full time trader | 752 Posts
It's a pleasure to answer these questions, seriously.
Hmmm, regarding the setups, you could watch what the price does related to the dynamic supports and resistances.
One of the unwritten law, in my opinion, is : it is not enough that the price invalidates one of the indicator's studies (Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen, Senkou Span A and B). It has to be continuous. It has to break the next one to validate the previous braked study. You get the idea, moving in cycles. Initial move, pullback, initial move pullback and so on.

example:

AUD/CAD, daily:

Look how the price broke the cloud area (Senkou Span B) came back to support(Tenkan-sen) and after that rises again and brake the resistance (Senkou Span B wich turned into support for the future move).

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